中银国际发布研报称，预计2026年全球新能源汽车销量保持较高景气度，销量有望创历史新高，带动产 业链需求高增长。"反内卷"共识下叠加需求高增，材料环节盈利有望迎来量利齐升。以固态电池为代表 的新技术产业化落地加速，有望带动产业链技术升级，维持行业强于大市评级。 中银国际主要观点如下： 新能源汽车 预计2026年全球新能源汽车需求将保持较高增长：2025年1-9月全球新能源汽车销量基本呈现稳步上升 态势，渗透率持续提升，市场空间不断扩大。2026年随着需求复苏、新车型持续推出、智能化、网联化 以及快充等新技术带来的产品力提升，我们预计销量仍将保持增长，国内新能源汽车销量有望再创新 高。碳中和背景下全球汽车电动化大趋势不改，海外新能源汽车销量持续增长。预计2026年全球新能源 汽车销量有望达到约2,600万辆，同比增长约15%。 在"动储双轮"驱动下需求高增叠加材料端扩产谨慎，供需错配首先在景气度最高的六氟磷酸锂环节体 现，价格修复有望带动龙头企业量利齐升，建议关注铁锂正极、隔膜、负极、铜箔等供需趋紧环节的龙 头企业。 固态电池产业化加速，有望带动产业链升级 固态电池进入中试与小批量装车验证窗口期，设备有望率先受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Finnish startup Donut Lab has announced the release of a solid-state battery, claiming it has a cycle life of up to 100,000 times, an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, and a rapid charging capability of 5 minutes, which has surprised the market and raised questions about the competitive landscape in solid-state battery technology [1][3][5]. Group 1: Donut Lab's Solid-State Battery - Donut Lab's solid-state battery is claimed to have a cycle life of 100,000 times and an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, with a charging time of just 5 minutes [3][5]. - The company asserts it has the capability for gigawatt-hour level mass production and can supply globally [3]. - The announcement has caused concern among investors, questioning whether the solid-state battery's "D-Day" has arrived while others remain passive [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Competitor Responses - Despite the significant announcement, the response from global battery and automotive manufacturers, particularly Chinese companies, has been muted [5][6]. - Chinese companies may not be worried due to previous announcements of breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology by other firms like Nissan and Toyota, which have not yet materialized into market-ready products [6][10]. - The lack of immediate reaction from Chinese firms suggests confidence in their existing technology and market position [21][29]. Group 3: Challenges and Skepticism - There are doubts about the feasibility of Donut Lab's claims, particularly regarding the cycle life and cost of solid-state batteries, which are traditionally much higher than lithium-ion batteries [14][16]. - The solid-state battery industry faces significant challenges, including interface resistance, slow ion transport, high manufacturing costs, and low yield rates [18][20]. - The skepticism is further fueled by the lack of detailed specifications and pricing information from Donut Lab [20]. Group 4: China's Position in Solid-State Battery Development - China has a comprehensive and robust supply chain for electric vehicle batteries, with significant advancements in solid-state battery technology expected in the coming years [27][29]. - Major Chinese companies like CATL and BYD are planning to launch solid-state batteries with competitive energy densities and production timelines, indicating a strong domestic market focus [25][26]. - The Chinese market's scale and the established supply chain provide a competitive advantage, making it less likely for Chinese firms to be intimidated by new entrants like Donut Lab [22][29].

Core Viewpoint - The industry is transitioning from an emotion-driven phase to a rational value-return cycle by 2026 [3]. Group 1: Solid-State Battery Market - The shipment volume of semi-solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 15 GWh in 2026, driven by the acceleration of pilot and early production lines, such as those from GAC Group and Qingtao Energy [5]. - Significant improvements in solid-state battery core materials and processes are anticipated, with energy density reaching 400 Wh/kg by 2025, a notable increase from below 350 Wh/kg in 2024 [5]. - The market growth remains uncertain due to challenges in controlling consistency in oxide and polymer routes, affecting product yield and delivery stability [5]. - Full solid-state batteries will enter intensive road testing phases but are unlikely to achieve mass production within the year due to technical bottlenecks and high costs [6]. Group 2: IPO Trends in Lithium Industry - A wave of IPO applications from lithium industry chain companies is expected in 2026, with leaders in materials, equipment, energy storage integration, and solid-state batteries likely to benefit first [6]. - Material companies are seeing an expanded supply-demand gap for high-end products, accelerating the IPO process for those with technological advantages and strong customer ties [7]. - Resource companies with lithium mining capabilities are more likely to restart IPOs due to inventory reduction and rising price levels [8]. - Equipment companies are benefiting from the recovery in battery factory expansion demands, focusing on semi-solid and full solid-state battery equipment [8]. - Energy storage integration companies are transitioning to a profitable model based on technology and service premiums, increasing their chances of successful IPOs [8]. Group 3: Sodium-Ion Battery Market - The shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries in China is projected to exceed 10 GWh in 2026, doubling year-on-year, driven by rising lithium battery material prices and cost advantages in energy storage applications [10]. - Sodium batteries are expected to address performance limitations of lithium batteries, particularly in low-temperature environments, making them suitable for northern markets [10]. - Leading companies like CATL are accelerating their sodium battery deployment across various sectors, including energy storage and electric vehicles [10]. - The NFPP sodium-ion battery is expected to dominate with over 80% market share due to its advantages in stability and cost [10]. Group 4: Cylindrical Battery Market - The shipment volume of cylindrical batteries in China is expected to grow over 50% year-on-year, surpassing 45 GWh, with energy storage being a key growth area [12]. - The demand for cylindrical batteries is driven by the need to replace square cell structures in home storage products, providing a low-cost and high-safety solution [12]. - Rapid capacity release in 2025 is expected to support supply, with major companies focusing on different market segments, ensuring a breakthrough in shipment volumes [12]. Group 5: Silicon-Based Anode Materials - The application of CVD silicon-based composite anode materials in the 3C digital battery market is expected to exceed 50% by 2026, leading to significant growth in output [15]. - The demand for higher energy density and lighter batteries in 3C products is driving the adoption of silicon-carbon composite anodes [15]. - However, technological challenges remain in the large-scale application of these materials in power batteries, particularly regarding consistency in manufacturing processes [15].

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月11日 锂电产业链双周报（2026年1月第1期） 四部委召开会议规范产业竞争，锂电池出口退税政策将陆续退出 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 证券分析师：徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 联系人：王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 【风险提示】电动车销量不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格大幅波动，政策变动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 固态电池产业化加速推进：政策端，首个车用固态电池国家标准《电动汽车用固态电池第1部分：术语和分类》公开征求意见。电池端，欣界能源2GWh固态锂金属电池项目投产；红旗研 ...

以下文章来源于定焦One ，作者定焦One团队 23亿索赔，撕开二线电池厂生存真相。 作者丨 金玙璠 编辑丨 魏佳 来源丨 定焦One 岁末年初，一纸23亿的天价索赔，在汽车圈炸开了锅。 2025年12月26日，欣旺达公告披露，其全资子公司欣旺达动力，被吉利控股旗下的三电核心企业威睿公司（极氪汽车持股51%）正式起诉，索赔 23.14亿元，缘由是2021年6月至2023年12月供应给极氪等车型的电芯被指存在质量问题，导致其进行大规模换电。案件已立案未开庭。 这笔钱，相当于欣旺达过去两年的净利润总和。在其推动"A+H"整体上市的关键时刻，这笔突如其来的索赔，让其次日股价暴跌超10%，市值蒸发逾 60亿元。 定焦One . 深度影响创新。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 纠纷的来源可以追溯至2022年：相关质量问题自2022年下半年便有车主投诉；极氪在2024年发起过电池包更换活动。这期间，欣旺达动力曾于2024 年8月起诉威睿拖欠1.19亿元货款并胜诉。 如今矛盾公开：威睿直指电芯质量缺陷，而欣旺达否认，称自己仅提供电芯，电池包（PACK）由威睿自行设计，且同款电芯供应给其他客户未无类似 问题。法 ...

Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing renewed interest from investors due to clear profitability and order visibility in the supply chain, with a significant focus on achieving mass production by 2027 [2][3][6] - Major automotive companies are targeting 2027 for the application of solid-state batteries in vehicles, with many planning to complete product development or testing by 2026 [4][5] Industry Developments - Companies like Tian Shi Ke Feng have begun to engage with potential investors after overcoming initial funding challenges, with plans to expand production capacity significantly in 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has identified solid-state batteries as a key area for development, aiming to establish 3-5 leading companies by 2027 [3] Technical Challenges - The path to mass production of solid-state batteries is fraught with challenges, including material technology discrepancies and shortages in core equipment [6][8] - The industry is divided on material technology routes, with significant competition between oxide and sulfide electrolytes, each having distinct advantages and challenges [10][12] Material Innovations - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their high energy density and intrinsic safety, making them suitable for various applications, although their cost-effectiveness in electric vehicles remains a concern [7][8] - The development of silicon-carbon and lithium metal anodes is ongoing, with companies reporting progress in small-scale trials [9][10] Equipment and Production - The lack of mature mass production equipment poses a significant barrier, with many companies resorting to self-developed solutions to meet production demands [14][19] - The production process for solid-state batteries requires high precision and specialized equipment, which increases costs and complicates the manufacturing process [20][21] Market Dynamics - The solid-state battery supply chain is characterized by a collaborative approach among suppliers and manufacturers, with a focus on meeting evolving technical requirements from cell manufacturers [23][24] - The competitive landscape is marked by a "race" among cell manufacturers to explore various material suppliers, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation and adaptation [24]

锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 锂电池产业链双周报(2025/12/26-2026/01/08) 行 业 1 月锂电产业链预排产环比有所下降 2026 年 1 月 9 日 投资要点： 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340512090001 行情回顾：截至2026年1月8日，锂电池指数近两周下跌0.85%，跑输沪深 300指数2.90个百分点；锂电池指数本月至今累计上涨0.97%，跑输沪深 300指数1.36个百分点；锂电池指数年初至今上涨0.97%，跑输沪深300指 数1.36个百分点。 周 报 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 锂电池产业链近两周价格变动： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 周观点：乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，预计2026年Q1新能源车同比有 望微增5%，环比降36%（前10年的平均降幅）。动力电池需求进入传统淡 季，1月锂电产业链预排产整体环比有所下降，基本面或将对材料价格支 撑 ...

一、"大容量"时代到来 2021年至2025年，全球储能锂电池市场快速从280Ah向314Ah及500Ah以上大容量电芯演进 ， 280Ah及以上产品迅速从新兴技术成长为市 场主流。 2020年，宁德时代推出280Ah电芯，彼时储能电池规格仍较为杂乱，涵盖50Ah、100Ah等小容量及多种非标型号。到2021年，280Ah逐渐崭 露头角，并凭借高能量密度、提升的安全性及工艺简化等优势，在大型储能项目中占据主导，替代了早期的小容量电芯。主流电池企业相继布局 该规格，280Ah规格储能电池渗透率处于爬坡阶段。 2023年，随着全球新型储能装机规模快速增长，市场对降本增效的需求进一步凸显。280Ah电芯凭借尺寸、能量密度（约395Wh/L）与循环 寿命（约8000次）的综合优势持续领跑。同时，314Ah电池开始小批量测试，并在部分项目中预留接口，以其容量提升12%、单柜能量密度突 破5MWh的特点初步获得关注。 2024年，电芯容量升级趋势加速。314Ah凭借更高能量密度与更低系统成本，迅速占领电源侧与电网侧储能市场；280Ah则逐渐转向对成本敏 感或空间要求不高的特定场景；500Ah以上电池进入市场导入期，主要应 ...

Core Viewpoint - EVE Energy has refiled its IPO application with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 2, 2026, after the initial application expired. The updated prospectus indicates a shift in fundraising focus from a project in Malaysia to the construction of a factory in Hungary for the production of 46 series cylindrical batteries, driven by the growing European electric vehicle market [2][3][8]. Group 1: IPO and Fundraising Changes - EVE Energy's initial IPO application submitted on June 30, 2025, became invalid after six months due to the expiration of the prospectus [3]. - The company clarified that the re-filing is a normal procedure under Hong Kong regulatory policies and does not significantly impact the overall IPO process [3]. - The fundraising plan has been adjusted to focus on the Hungarian project, with the Malaysian third-phase project removed from the investment scope [7][8]. Group 2: Business Focus and Financial Performance - EVE Energy's main business is in the lithium battery sector, with product categories including consumer batteries, power batteries, and energy storage batteries. The revenue share of consumer batteries decreased from 23.5% in 2022 to 18.3% by Q3 2025, while energy storage batteries increased from 26% to 37.9% during the same period [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 45 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.17%, but net profit decreased by 11.70% to 2.816 billion yuan [3]. - The gross margin for consumer batteries remained high at 26.8%, while power batteries had a margin of 15.3%, and energy storage batteries had a lower margin of 11.2%, impacting the overall gross margin [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - In 2024, EVE Energy's power battery shipment volume was 30.3 GWh, capturing approximately 2.8% of the global market, ranking fifth among Chinese manufacturers and ninth globally [4]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity, with construction projects increasing by 42.74% year-on-year as of Q3 2025. The debt ratio stood at 63.5%, higher than that of its competitor CATL at 61.27% [4]. - EVE Energy aims to leverage its competitive advantage in the cylindrical battery sector, having established a 20 GWh factory and becoming a major supplier for next-generation electric vehicle models [5]. Group 4: International Expansion and Revenue Trends - EVE Energy's revenue is primarily derived from the domestic market, with the share of domestic revenue increasing from 65.2% in 2022 to 76.6% by Q3 2025. However, overseas revenue is also on the rise [6]. - The company has adjusted its overseas production focus, shifting from Malaysia to Hungary, where the new factory is strategically located near major automotive clients to better meet their needs [7][8]. - The Hungarian factory is expected to have a production capacity of 30 GWh and is projected to commence operations in 2027, focusing on the 46 series cylindrical batteries [7].

以下文章来源于定焦One ，作者定焦One团队 定焦One . 深度影响创新。 来源丨定焦One（dingjiaoone） 算账：规模扩张，为什么没换来利润？ 作者 | 金玙璠 编辑 | 魏佳 图源丨unsplash 岁末年初，一纸23亿的天价索赔，在汽车圈炸开了锅。 2025年12月26日，欣旺达公告披露， 其全资子公司欣旺达动力，被吉利控股旗下的三电核心企业威 睿公司（极氪汽车持股51%）正式起诉，索赔23.14亿元，缘由是2021年6月至2023年12月供应给 极氪等车型的电芯被指存在质量问题，导致其进行大规模换电。案件已立案未开庭。 这笔钱，相当于欣旺达过去两年的净利润总和。在其推动"A+H"整体上市的关键时刻，这笔突如其来 的索赔，让其次日股价暴跌超10%，市值蒸发逾60亿元。 纠纷的来源可以追溯至2022年：相关质量问题自 2022年下半年便有车主投诉；极氪在2024年发起 过电池包更换 活动。这期间，欣旺达动力曾于2024年8月起诉威睿拖欠1.19亿元货款并胜诉。 如今矛盾公开：威睿直指电芯质量缺陷，而欣旺达否认，称自己仅提供电芯，电池包（PACK）由威 睿自行设计，且同款电芯供应给其他客户未无 ...