Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on January 12, with over 4,100 stocks closing in the green and a record trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous high on October 8, 2024. The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for batteries has influenced market dynamics, leading to a notable increase in trading activity for the Battery 50 ETF (159796), which closed down 0.69% despite a trading volume nearing 600 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) saw most of its constituent stocks decline, with notable drops including Sunshine Power and Xian Dao Intelligent, both down over 3%, while Ningde Times and Guoxuan High-Tech fell over 2% [3]. - The trading volume of the Battery 50 ETF (159796) surged to nearly 600 million yuan, indicating heightened investor interest despite the ETF's decline [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - On January 9, two departments announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies, effective from April 1, 2026, which will reduce the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%, and eliminate it entirely by January 1, 2027 [4][5]. - The previous reduction in export tax rebates for certain photovoltaic and battery products from 13% to 9% in November 2024 had already triggered a rush in exports, and the latest adjustments may lead to a similar surge, benefiting the lithium carbonate sector [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Global demand for energy storage is expected to grow steadily, with projections indicating that global energy storage installations will reach 404 GWh by 2026, representing a 38% year-on-year increase [5]. - The battery sector is experiencing a sustained upward trend, driven by the growth of the global electric vehicle market, with domestic battery installations expected to maintain high growth rates through 2026 [5][6]. - Solid-state battery technology is advancing, with potential for significant industry upgrades, as companies that can provide stable supply and mature processes are likely to benefit [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) is positioned to benefit from its high content in energy storage (18.7%) and solid-state batteries (45%), making it a strong candidate for investors looking to capitalize on these growing segments [7][9]. - The ETF's focus on battery chemicals, which account for 31% of its weight, positions it well to benefit from the recovery of upstream material prices, enhancing the overall industry outlook [9][12].

真锂研究创始人墨柯向《中国经营报》记者表示："2025年碳酸锂价格呈V型走势，而2026年或呈现倒V 曲线。当前，AIDC（人工智能数据中心）储能尚处于'讲故事'阶段，随着电池市场生产库存累计到一 定程度，碳酸锂价格上涨的泡沫可能破灭。如果2026年下半年碳酸锂的价格再次进入下行通道，市场将 不得不经历产能出清的过程，以实现供需的重新平衡。" 价格"V型反转" 中经记者李哲北京报道 碳酸锂市场在2025年迎来触底反弹。 2025年年初，碳酸锂价格尚在7.5万元/吨附近震荡，6月便触及5.9万元/吨的年内低点，随后在"反内 卷"和储能市场的增长预期带动下强势回升，至12月末碳酸锂期货主力合约价格一度突破13万元/吨，较 低点涨幅超过120%。 2025年碳酸锂的价格轨迹勾勒出一条典型的V型曲线。 2025年年初，碳酸锂价格在7.52万元/吨附近震荡下行，广州期货交易所碳酸锂期货主力合约价格在4月 底跌破7万元/吨。随后，6月24日触及年内低点5.9万元/吨。 国家能源局统计数据显示，截至2025年9月底，我国新型储能装机规模超过1亿千瓦，与"十三五"末相比 增长超30倍，装机规模占全球总装机比例超过40%。 赣 ...

电力设备与新能源 电池出口退税下调,看好海外产能布局 企业 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 12 日│中国内地 动态点评 宣布阶梯式下调电池出口退税，利好 26 年抢出口及格局优化 证券研究报告 26 年 1 月 9 日，中国财政部、税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退 税政策的公告》，宣布自 26 年 4 月 1 日起至 26 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产 品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%，2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产 品增值税出口退税。我们认为出口退税率的下调短期将推动电池 26 年抢出 口，加剧锂矿、六氟磷酸锂等环节的供需紧张，长期将推动国内落后产能出 清，优化电池行业格局，利好海外产能布局企业，推荐宁德时代、亿纬锂能、 天赐材料、新宙邦、尚太科技、富临精工。 政策意图或为抑制出海低价竞争，长期有望优化电池格局 根据财政部及国家税务总局的文件，其电池的出口退税率从 9%逐步下调至 6%、0%。根据电池联盟，25 年 1-11 月国内电池出口合计 260.3GWh，占 总销量的 18.4%。假设出口电池 FOB 离岸均价为 0.5 元/Wh，则退税率从 9%下调至 6%/0%将 ...

2 0 25年，储能大电芯告别"纸面参数"的竞赛，转向产能、良率与项目应用的实战检验。 随着 宁德 时 代 、 亿 纬 锂 能 、远 景 动 力、 海辰 储能 、 欣旺 达 等 头 部 企 业 相 继 实 现 量 产 交 付，并结合一系列GWh级别战略合作与海外项目落地，行业清 晰传递出一个信号： 大容 量电芯已从技术样品走向规模化商业应用， 储能系统向更高能量密度、更低成本演进的 速度远超预期。 量 产01竞 赛 开 启 5 0 0 A h + 电 芯 规 模 化 交 付 2 0 25年以来，多家电池企业纷纷交出500Ah+大电芯的量产"成绩单"，产能爬坡与交付节 奏明显加快： 宁德时代： 5 8 7Ah储能专用电芯于6月启动量产，济宁基地支持日产超2 2万颗，截至1 2月 已完成2GWh出货，全年预计达3GWh，率先进入GWh级规模化商用阶段。 亿纬锂能： 6 2 8Ah电芯在2024年底宣布量产后，2025年内实现75万颗下线，并于9月成 功应用于全球首个百兆瓦时级项目——河北灵寿200MW/ 400MWh独立储能电站，同步完 成海外发货。 远景动力： 5 0 0+Ah电芯在沧州工厂下线即实现"量产即出 ...

Group 1 - Battery concept stocks weakened, with major players like Sunshine Power and CATL dropping over 4%, while companies such as Yiwei Lithium Energy, Xianlead Intelligent, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Xinwanda fell more than 3% [1] - Several battery-related ETFs declined by over 2% due to the impact of heavy-weight stock declines [1] Group 2 - Recent analysis indicates that policy support has injected strong momentum into the battery industry, with the government continuously launching encouraging policies for new energy vehicles, including trade-in programs, charging infrastructure development, and promoting new energy in rural areas, which further releases consumer potential [2] - The gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies is leading to more rational competition within the industry, suggesting an improvement in the overall profitability environment [2]

中银国际发布研报称，预计2026年全球新能源汽车销量保持较高景气度，销量有望创历史新高，带动产 业链需求高增长。"反内卷"共识下叠加需求高增，材料环节盈利有望迎来量利齐升。以固态电池为代表 的新技术产业化落地加速，有望带动产业链技术升级，维持行业强于大市评级。 中银国际主要观点如下： 新能源汽车 预计2026年全球新能源汽车需求将保持较高增长：2025年1-9月全球新能源汽车销量基本呈现稳步上升 态势，渗透率持续提升，市场空间不断扩大。2026年随着需求复苏、新车型持续推出、智能化、网联化 以及快充等新技术带来的产品力提升，我们预计销量仍将保持增长，国内新能源汽车销量有望再创新 高。碳中和背景下全球汽车电动化大趋势不改，海外新能源汽车销量持续增长。预计2026年全球新能源 汽车销量有望达到约2,600万辆，同比增长约15%。 在"动储双轮"驱动下需求高增叠加材料端扩产谨慎，供需错配首先在景气度最高的六氟磷酸锂环节体 现，价格修复有望带动龙头企业量利齐升，建议关注铁锂正极、隔膜、负极、铜箔等供需趋紧环节的龙 头企业。 固态电池产业化加速，有望带动产业链升级 固态电池进入中试与小批量装车验证窗口期，设备有望率先受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Finnish startup Donut Lab has announced the release of a solid-state battery, claiming it has a cycle life of up to 100,000 times, an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, and a rapid charging capability of 5 minutes, which has surprised the market and raised questions about the competitive landscape in solid-state battery technology [1][3][5]. Group 1: Donut Lab's Solid-State Battery - Donut Lab's solid-state battery is claimed to have a cycle life of 100,000 times and an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, with a charging time of just 5 minutes [3][5]. - The company asserts it has the capability for gigawatt-hour level mass production and can supply globally [3]. - The announcement has caused concern among investors, questioning whether the solid-state battery's "D-Day" has arrived while others remain passive [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Competitor Responses - Despite the significant announcement, the response from global battery and automotive manufacturers, particularly Chinese companies, has been muted [5][6]. - Chinese companies may not be worried due to previous announcements of breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology by other firms like Nissan and Toyota, which have not yet materialized into market-ready products [6][10]. - The lack of immediate reaction from Chinese firms suggests confidence in their existing technology and market position [21][29]. Group 3: Challenges and Skepticism - There are doubts about the feasibility of Donut Lab's claims, particularly regarding the cycle life and cost of solid-state batteries, which are traditionally much higher than lithium-ion batteries [14][16]. - The solid-state battery industry faces significant challenges, including interface resistance, slow ion transport, high manufacturing costs, and low yield rates [18][20]. - The skepticism is further fueled by the lack of detailed specifications and pricing information from Donut Lab [20]. Group 4: China's Position in Solid-State Battery Development - China has a comprehensive and robust supply chain for electric vehicle batteries, with significant advancements in solid-state battery technology expected in the coming years [27][29]. - Major Chinese companies like CATL and BYD are planning to launch solid-state batteries with competitive energy densities and production timelines, indicating a strong domestic market focus [25][26]. - The Chinese market's scale and the established supply chain provide a competitive advantage, making it less likely for Chinese firms to be intimidated by new entrants like Donut Lab [22][29].

Core Viewpoint - The industry is transitioning from an emotion-driven phase to a rational value-return cycle by 2026 [3]. Group 1: Solid-State Battery Market - The shipment volume of semi-solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 15 GWh in 2026, driven by the acceleration of pilot and early production lines, such as those from GAC Group and Qingtao Energy [5]. - Significant improvements in solid-state battery core materials and processes are anticipated, with energy density reaching 400 Wh/kg by 2025, a notable increase from below 350 Wh/kg in 2024 [5]. - The market growth remains uncertain due to challenges in controlling consistency in oxide and polymer routes, affecting product yield and delivery stability [5]. - Full solid-state batteries will enter intensive road testing phases but are unlikely to achieve mass production within the year due to technical bottlenecks and high costs [6]. Group 2: IPO Trends in Lithium Industry - A wave of IPO applications from lithium industry chain companies is expected in 2026, with leaders in materials, equipment, energy storage integration, and solid-state batteries likely to benefit first [6]. - Material companies are seeing an expanded supply-demand gap for high-end products, accelerating the IPO process for those with technological advantages and strong customer ties [7]. - Resource companies with lithium mining capabilities are more likely to restart IPOs due to inventory reduction and rising price levels [8]. - Equipment companies are benefiting from the recovery in battery factory expansion demands, focusing on semi-solid and full solid-state battery equipment [8]. - Energy storage integration companies are transitioning to a profitable model based on technology and service premiums, increasing their chances of successful IPOs [8]. Group 3: Sodium-Ion Battery Market - The shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries in China is projected to exceed 10 GWh in 2026, doubling year-on-year, driven by rising lithium battery material prices and cost advantages in energy storage applications [10]. - Sodium batteries are expected to address performance limitations of lithium batteries, particularly in low-temperature environments, making them suitable for northern markets [10]. - Leading companies like CATL are accelerating their sodium battery deployment across various sectors, including energy storage and electric vehicles [10]. - The NFPP sodium-ion battery is expected to dominate with over 80% market share due to its advantages in stability and cost [10]. Group 4: Cylindrical Battery Market - The shipment volume of cylindrical batteries in China is expected to grow over 50% year-on-year, surpassing 45 GWh, with energy storage being a key growth area [12]. - The demand for cylindrical batteries is driven by the need to replace square cell structures in home storage products, providing a low-cost and high-safety solution [12]. - Rapid capacity release in 2025 is expected to support supply, with major companies focusing on different market segments, ensuring a breakthrough in shipment volumes [12]. Group 5: Silicon-Based Anode Materials - The application of CVD silicon-based composite anode materials in the 3C digital battery market is expected to exceed 50% by 2026, leading to significant growth in output [15]. - The demand for higher energy density and lighter batteries in 3C products is driving the adoption of silicon-carbon composite anodes [15]. - However, technological challenges remain in the large-scale application of these materials in power batteries, particularly regarding consistency in manufacturing processes [15].

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月11日 锂电产业链双周报（2026年1月第1期） 四部委召开会议规范产业竞争，锂电池出口退税政策将陆续退出 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 证券分析师：徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 联系人：王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 【风险提示】电动车销量不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格大幅波动，政策变动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 固态电池产业化加速推进：政策端，首个车用固态电池国家标准《电动汽车用固态电池第1部分：术语和分类》公开征求意见。电池端，欣界能源2GWh固态锂金属电池项目投产；红旗研 ...

以下文章来源于定焦One ，作者定焦One团队 23亿索赔，撕开二线电池厂生存真相。 作者丨 金玙璠 编辑丨 魏佳 来源丨 定焦One 岁末年初，一纸23亿的天价索赔，在汽车圈炸开了锅。 2025年12月26日，欣旺达公告披露，其全资子公司欣旺达动力，被吉利控股旗下的三电核心企业威睿公司（极氪汽车持股51%）正式起诉，索赔 23.14亿元，缘由是2021年6月至2023年12月供应给极氪等车型的电芯被指存在质量问题，导致其进行大规模换电。案件已立案未开庭。 这笔钱，相当于欣旺达过去两年的净利润总和。在其推动"A+H"整体上市的关键时刻，这笔突如其来的索赔，让其次日股价暴跌超10%，市值蒸发逾 60亿元。 定焦One . 深度影响创新。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 纠纷的来源可以追溯至2022年：相关质量问题自2022年下半年便有车主投诉；极氪在2024年发起过电池包更换活动。这期间，欣旺达动力曾于2024 年8月起诉威睿拖欠1.19亿元货款并胜诉。 如今矛盾公开：威睿直指电芯质量缺陷，而欣旺达否认，称自己仅提供电芯，电池包（PACK）由威睿自行设计，且同款电芯供应给其他客户未无类似 问题。法 ...