出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 1月12日，智飞生物发布2025年度业绩预告，预计归母净利润亏损106.98亿元至137.26亿元，同比下降 630%至780%，上年同期盈利20.18亿元。 对于业绩暴雷，公司解释如下： 一是，公司主要产品销售不及预期，业绩同比承压； 二是，为真实 反映公司财务状况，基于谨慎性原则，公司对市场需求变化、近效期、到效期，导致其可变现净值低于 存货账面价值的存货计提减值准备；对应收账款的预期信用损失进行评估，根据其账龄情况对应收账款 计提信用减值损失。 暴雷早有预期？百亿暴雷有无财务洗澡 文/夏虫工作室 智飞生物是一家集疫苗、生物制品研发、生产、销售、配送及进出口为一体的国际化、全产业链高科技 生物制药企业。其中，疫苗代理给公司贡献了大部分业绩，2024年代理业务收入占比达到94.61%。 核心观点：智飞生物此次百亿暴雷是否涉嫌财务洗澡？一方面，公司批签发量自2024年已经开始"崩 塌"；另一方面，公司存货高企超200亿，25年相关数据似乎进一步恶化，而公司25半年报存货跌价计提 却不足亿元。此外，公司短期债务超百亿但货币资金却不足30亿元，资金缺口巨大，短期债务压力或也 不容小觑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhifei Biological, is facing significant financial losses in 2025, with projected losses between 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780% due to the deep adjustment period in the vaccine industry [1][2] Industry Adjustment and Financial Challenges - The vaccine industry is undergoing a deep adjustment due to decreased public vaccination willingness, increased vaccine hesitancy, and policy changes [2] - Zhifei Biological's losses are attributed to underperformance in product sales, inventory impairment due to market demand changes, and credit loss provisions for accounts receivable [2] Strategic Responses and Innovations - The company is actively optimizing its operational strategies by adjusting procurement plans, enhancing product promotion strategies, accelerating the launch of self-developed products, and restructuring debt [2][3] - Zhifei Biological is focusing on research and development, with 34 projects in the pipeline, including 24 in clinical trials, which are expected to improve revenue structure upon approval [4] Market Opportunities and Product Expansion - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is expected to enhance public awareness and open up market opportunities for related vaccine products [3] - The company has successfully expanded the indications for its HPV vaccines and shingles vaccine, targeting high-risk populations and potentially increasing revenue streams [5] Internationalization and Clinical Trials - Zhifei Biological is pursuing an internationalization strategy with a focus on clinical trials, including a dual-valent vaccine for dysentery in Bangladesh and a 26-valent pneumococcal vaccine in Australia [6] - The company is also engaging in partnerships for therapeutic products, which will likely increase its overseas revenue share [6] Future Outlook and Commitment - Despite the current losses, the company expresses commitment to improving operations and aims to launch more self-developed products while optimizing commercial collaborations [7] - Industry experts believe that with the upcoming product launches and market expansion, Zhifei Biological is positioned to reshape its growth trajectory and enhance its core competitiveness in the biopharmaceutical sector [7]

Core Insights - The vaccine industry is entering a deep transformation period characterized by stock competition and structural adjustments, where differentiated innovation is crucial for companies to navigate through cycles [1] - Zhifei Biological, a leader in the domestic biological vaccine sector, is facing challenges due to a decline in industry overall prosperity by 2025, driven by reduced public vaccination willingness and intensified market competition [1] - The company anticipates a temporary net profit loss for the year, reflecting the industry's deep reshuffling [1] Company Strategies - In response to performance pressures, Zhifei Biological is taking proactive measures, including recognizing inventory and accounts receivable impairments to accurately reflect its financial status, thereby laying a solid foundation for future development [1] - The company has secured over 10 billion yuan in loans from financial institutions, guaranteed by its actual controller, to optimize operational capacity and restructure existing debts, reinforcing its financial stability [1] - Zhifei Biological is adjusting procurement plans with partners in its traditional vaccine agency line to alleviate upstream supply pressures while enhancing marketing strategies to accelerate inventory turnover [1] Research and Development - The company has over 40 products in its research pipeline, with several, including the diploid rabies vaccine and 15-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine, currently under review for market approval, indicating significant market potential [2] - Zhifei Biological's self-developed products, such as the quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine and the 26-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine, have achieved notable breakthroughs, showcasing its technological leadership [2] - The company is committed to a differentiated competitive strategy focused on technological innovation and product iteration, which is expected to help it navigate the industry's adjustment cycle effectively [2]

智飞生物业绩的大幅跳水实际上早有预兆。自2024年起，该公司经营状况便持续恶化，截至2025年三季 度，已连续6个季度出现经营性亏损，亏损态势不断扩大。财务数据显示，2024年该公司实现营收260.7 亿元，同比下降50.74%，净利润更是骤降74.99%，仅20.18亿元；2025年上半年，智飞生物陷入上市以 来首次半年度亏损，实现营业收入49.19亿元，同比下降73.06%，净利润则同比下降126.72%，为亏损 5.97亿元。前三季度累计亏损更是扩大至12.06亿元。 智飞生物的产品主要分为自主疫苗产品和代理疫苗产品两大块，其业绩下降主要来自代理产品。北京商 报记者梳理发现，智飞生物的代理产品在2020年、2022年、2023年及2024年均为其带来了超90%的营 收，是名副其实的"业绩支柱"。但2025年上半年，智飞生物的代理产品实现营收43.7亿元，同比下降 75.16%，占总营收的比重为88.84%。 回溯过去几年，智飞生物的成长史堪称疫苗行业的一段传奇。2017年，该公司拿下默沙东四价HPV疫苗 国内代理权，凭借精准的市场策略迅速打开国内市场；2018年，进一步拿下九价HPV疫苗代理权，这款 当 ...

曾凭借代理默沙东HPV疫苗创造增长神话的智飞生物，正迎来上市以来最严峻的业绩考验。1月12日， 智飞生物发布2025年业绩预告，预计净利润亏损106.98亿至137.26亿元，同比跌幅超6倍。 从2021年净利润超百亿的行业明星，到如今巨亏超百亿，智飞生物的业绩变脸背后，是其对代理产品的 过度依赖与市场环境的剧烈变化。随着国产九价疫苗上市冲击，HPV疫苗市场遇冷，智飞生物核心代理 业务营收大幅萎缩，而此前与默沙东签订的980亿元采购协议却仍在执行，导致库存高企、资金承压。 截至2025年三季度，智飞生物存货余额已超202亿元，其中大量九价疫苗面临过期风险。为缓解流动性 危机，智飞生物近日已紧急申请不超过102亿元的银团贷款，并将核心资产悉数质押。 在试图加速去库存，缓解业绩压力的同时，智飞生物也在积极求解，拓展GLP-1等新业务线，这家曾靠 代理疫苗缔造增长神话的企业，正站在存亡的十字路口。 业绩预告显示，智飞生物预计2025年净利润亏损106.98亿至137.26亿元，同比下降630%至780%，扣除 非经常性损益后的净利润亏损105.54亿至135.41亿元，同比下降630%至780%。 智飞生物业绩的大 ...

智通财经记者 | 李科文 智通财经编辑 | 谢欣 疫苗龙头智飞生物预亏超百亿元。 2026年1月12日晚间，智飞生物发布2025年度业绩预告。据业绩预告，智飞生物预计2025年归母净利润 亏损106.98亿元至137.26亿元，同比下降630%至780%，上年同期盈利20.18亿元；预计扣非净利润亏损 105.54亿元至135.41亿元，同比下降630%至780%，上年同期盈利19.91亿元。 这是智飞生物自2010年上市以来首次出现年度亏损，糟糕的业绩因主要产品市场销售情况不及预期。1 月13日，智通财经致电智飞生物董秘办并发送采访邮件，截至发稿未获回复。 事实上，除销售情况不及预期外，更关键的是，智飞生物高企的应收账款和存货等定时炸弹均被引爆。 存货数据高，意味着该公司的疫苗产品需求有限、销售疲软；应收账款高，意味着公司没能从各地疾控 中心尽快收到回款。 据业绩预告，智飞生物对市场需求变化、近效期、到效期，导致其可变现净值低于存货账面价值的存货 计提减值准备；对应收账款的预期信用损失进行评估，根据其账龄情况对应收账款计提信用减值损失。 众和昆仑（北京）资产管理有限公司董事长柏文喜曾向智通财经记者分析，智飞 ...

以2025年1月1日至13日的数据为例，期间仅有63家A股上市公司披露业绩预告，其中续亏、首亏类公司 仅7家，占同期披露总数的11.11%。但2026年1月这一惯例被打破，预亏公司与预增公司同步集中披 露。 预亏潮集中爆发： 传统行业成重灾区 从已披露数据看，本轮预亏潮呈现"规模不均、行业集中"的特征。 A股年报业绩预告季，正以一种显著区别于往年的节奏拉开序幕。传统上，业绩向好的公司往往更乐于 率先"报喜"，而业绩不佳者则倾向于延迟披露。然而，本轮预告潮初期，预亏、续亏公告却呈现密 集"抢跑"态势，与预增公告同步甚至更早地涌入市场，引发了市场各方的密切关注。 21快讯记者查询同花顺（300033）数据显示，截至2026年1月13日上午，当月已有105家上市公司发布 2025年度业绩预告，占近期披露总数的70.9%。其中，续亏公司42家、首亏公司15家，合计57家预亏相 关企业，占当月披露总数的54.29%. 事实上，根据相关安排，无特殊情况，上市应当在会计年度结束后1个月内完成年度业绩预告。但长期 以来，A股市场存在业绩预告"报喜不报忧"的披露特征：通常业绩增长的公司会较早披露预告，业绩亏 损或下滑的公司则倾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share annual report performance forecast season is witnessing an unusual trend where companies announcing losses are doing so simultaneously with those reporting gains, breaking the traditional pattern of early positive disclosures and delayed negative ones [1][2]. Group 1: Pre-Loss Companies - As of January 13, 2026, 105 companies have released performance forecasts for 2025, with 57 companies (54.29%) announcing losses, including 42 continuing losses and 15 first-time losses [1][3]. - The losses are concentrated in traditional cyclical industries, particularly real estate, where all six companies that disclosed forecasts reported losses, resulting in a 100% loss rate [3]. - Leading real estate company Greenland Holdings is projected to incur a net loss of 16 billion to 19 billion yuan for 2025, marking its third consecutive year of losses due to declining asset prices and insufficient market demand [3][4]. Group 2: Pre-Gain Companies - In contrast, companies reporting gains are primarily from resource and technology sectors, benefiting from rising commodity prices and technological innovations [8]. - The non-ferrous metals industry is a key driver of profit growth, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [9]. - Technology firms like Sanhua Intelligent Control are also expected to see significant profit increases, with projected growth of 25% to 50% due to advancements in automotive components for new energy vehicles [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The unusual disclosure pattern is attributed to increased regulatory pressure and a push for greater market transparency, encouraging companies to disclose negative information earlier to mitigate stock price volatility [14]. - Economic factors and industry cycles are contributing to a widening loss landscape, with demand falling short of expectations, particularly in traditional consumer sectors [14]. - Market sentiment is improving, with expectations for a recovery in corporate earnings in 2026, driven by increased investor confidence and capital inflows [15].

智飞生物于2026年1月5日晚间发布关于公司控股股东部分股份解除质押的公告称，公司近日接到公司控 股股东、实际控制人蒋仁生的通知，获悉蒋仁生所持有公司的部分股份解除质押。 蒋仁生本次解除质押股数为65,450,000股，占其所持股份比例5.64%，占智飞生物总股本比例2.73%，解 除日期为2025年12月30日，质权人为重庆农村商业银行股份有限公司。 截至公告披露日，蒋仁生持股数量1,159,573,500股，持股比例为48.44%，累计被质押股份数量为 119,250,000股，合计占其所持股份比例10.28%，合计占智飞生物总股本比例4.98%。 中国经济网北京1月13日讯智飞生物（300122）(300122.SZ)昨日晚间发布2025年度业绩预告。 智飞生物预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为1,069,793.61万元至1,372,565.38万元，比上年同 期下降630%至780%；预计2025年度扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损为1,055,434.85万元至1,354,142.82万 元，比上年同期下降630%至780%。 2024年，智飞生物实现营业收入260.70亿元，同比下降50.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhifei Biological, is expected to face significant losses in 2025, with a projected pre-loss of between 10.698 billion and 13.726 billion yuan due to declining vaccination willingness and increased vaccine hesitancy in the industry [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The losses are primarily attributed to lower-than-expected sales of main products and the need to write down inventory and accounts receivable to reflect true financial conditions [2] - Excluding the impact of these write-downs, the company's performance would appear relatively better, indicating a strategic financial optimization rather than operational disorder [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.985 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 201.18%, indicating improved cash flow health [3] Group 2: Business Operations - Zhifei Biological is solidifying its operational foundation through a dual-driven model of agency and self-research, with significant product approvals expanding market coverage [3] - The company has received approval for the male indication of the nine-valent HPV vaccine, becoming the first in China to cover both genders, and has expanded the indication for the recombinant shingles vaccine [3] Group 3: Research and Development - As of Q3 2025, the company has 34 self-research projects, with 21 in various stages of clinical trials or application for market approval, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [4] - The company is advancing in both preventive and therapeutic areas, with significant progress in clinical trials for its dual-target agonist for weight loss and blood sugar reduction [4] Group 4: International Expansion - The company is also pursuing internationalization, with its self-developed vaccines undergoing clinical trials in countries like Bangladesh and Australia, marking a step towards global market presence [4] - The international development of vaccines is expected to complement domestic operations and enhance overall growth prospects [4]