证券研究报告 科技 Q3 前瞻：关注 AI 算力链业绩兑现 华泰研究 以 38 家我们覆盖的 A/H 通信行业公司为样本，我们预计 3Q25 通信板块合计 归母净利润同比增长 15%，剔除三大运营商、中兴通讯权重股后，预计板块 归母净利润同比增长 73%。细分来看，电信运营商利润预计稳健增长；光通 信板块在海外与国内市场需求延续高增下，业绩有望持续兑现，且产业链景 气度预计继续呈扩散趋势；IDC 受益国内外智算中心需求增长有望迎来拐点； 铜连接板块业绩有望在产能释放下逐步兑现；光纤光缆景气度有望逐步复苏。 运营商利润预计稳健增长；国内智算需求放量，相关业绩或持续兑现 我们预计 3Q25 电信运营商板块归母净利润同比增长 5%，保持稳健增长， 据工信部，2025 年 1-8 月国内电信业务收入累计完成 11821 亿元，同比增 长 0.8%（1H25：1.0%），保持平稳增长。算力方面，我们预计 3Q25 通信 设备/IDC 板块归母净利润同比提升 10%/10%，随着 25 年以来国内 AI 数据 中心建设起量、规模效应下费用率有望优化，部分公司业绩有望陆续兑现； 同时，阿里在云栖大会上表示其 2032 年数 ...

10月16日，光模块CPO概念板块集体回暖，中际旭创（300308.SZ）、新易盛（300502.SZ）、天孚通信 （300394.SZ）等核心龙头低开高走，盘中集体翻红。截至午盘，中际旭创涨4.68%，股价重回370元/ 股，报370.68元/股、新易盛、长芯博创（300548.SZ）、天孚通信、光库科技（300620.SZ）等纷纷跟 涨。 消息面上，据智通财经报道，OpenAI被曝正制定五年商业计划，以履行1万亿美元支出承诺。同时， OpenAI还宣布与能源公司SurEnergy已签署一份意向书，计划在阿根廷建设一个数据中心枢纽，投资额 最高可达250亿美元，这将成为该国历史上规模最大的科技基础设施项目之一。 10月初，受关税政策调整及短期获利了结影响，光模块概念股曾出现较大面积回调，其中，龙头"易中 天"的回调幅度均超过10%。 不过，当前光模块的产业逻辑支撑依旧较为强劲。根据市场研究机构Light counting预测，2025年800G 以太网光模块市场规模将超过400G，随着高速光模块的快速导入，预计2029年800G和1.6T光模块的整 体市场规模将超过160亿美元。 事实上，这一趋势在上市公司 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market indices opened lower but quickly turned positive, with the optical module CPO concept sector showing strength for two consecutive days [1] - Key stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang rose nearly 6%, with other companies like Xinyi Sheng, Changxin Bochuang, Tianfu Communication, and Guangku Technology also experiencing gains [1] - The recent market volatility has seen a rebound in the AI computing power sector, indicating high sector prosperity [1] Group 2 - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) tracks the CSI 5G Communication Theme Index, with a latest scale exceeding 8 billion [2] - The index has a high purity of "hard technology," with telecommunications and electronics accounting for nearly 80% of the total weight [2] - The AI-focused ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI Index, with a significant weight in optical modules and a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.20% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the communication industry, emphasizing three main lines of investment: AI computing network differentiation, strengthening of the satellite industry, and optimization of the economic cycle [5][6]. Core Insights - The AI industry is evolving towards inference-driven models, with a diversified computing power solution landscape. The domestic supply chain for chips and modules is beginning to integrate, and the data center supply-demand inflection point has emerged [5][6]. - The satellite communication sector is experiencing significant catalysts, with a complete industry chain forming. Direct satellite connections are expected to drive growth in antennas, RF chips, and inter-satellite communication [5][6]. - The report identifies several high-quality cyclical stocks with confirmed growth and low valuations, particularly in sectors like Beidou navigation and controllers, suggesting a potential return of the investment "pendulum" [5][6]. Summary by Sections AI Computing Network - The AI computing network is highlighted as a key investment line, with operators actively building computing power and expected stable growth. High dividend yields continue to attract investors [5][6]. - The network equipment sector benefits from AI demand, with capital expenditures from operators and CSPs providing structural boosts [5][6]. - The optical device and chip industry is seeing continuous performance releases, driven by both domestic and international demand [5][6]. Satellite Communication - The satellite internet industry is undergoing intense catalysis, with multiple segments expected to maintain high value and high barrier attributes. The focus is on regular launch progress and commercialization [5][6]. Economic Cycle Optimization - The report emphasizes the recovery of demand in various sectors, including high-precision positioning and connectors, with significant growth expected in industrial automation and IoT driven by AI and robotics [5][6]. - The IDC sector is experiencing a structural supply-demand reversal, with core demand remaining in short supply, indicating a sustained high economic cycle [5][6]. Company Performance Predictions - The report forecasts significant profit growth for key companies in the communication sector for Q3 2025, with expected net profit growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms, including NewEase (220%), and 5.5G Canqin Technology (120%) [5][6]. - Companies like China Mobile and China Telecom are expected to maintain stable capital expenditures and improve return on equity through optimized revenue-cost dynamics [7][8]. Key Companies and Their Prospects - **China Mobile**: Focused on AI computing networks, with stable capital expenditure and improved ROE [7]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: Leading in optical modules, benefiting from AI computing demand [7]. - **NewEase**: Strong brand presence in optical communication, expected to benefit from AI computing network demand [7]. - **Tianfu Communication**: Anticipated to maintain high growth due to increasing demand for optical devices [7]. - **Zhongxing Communication**: Positioned well for growth through digital transformation and internal profit margin improvements [8]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the positive outlook for the communication industry, driven by advancements in AI, satellite technology, and cyclical recovery across various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated a discussion on optical modules, focusing on two Chinese companies, Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication, both receiving a buy rating and target price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - The stock prices of optical module companies have significantly increased this year, leading to profit-taking pressures [2]. - Investors are looking for more guidance on the demand and growth prospects for 800G/1.6T optical modules in 2027, especially in light of AI-driven industry growth [2][3]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Zhongji Xuchuang is the largest optical module supplier in China's data communication market, while Tianfu Communication is a key player with a focus on niche segments [3][4]. - Zhongji Xuchuang's strengths lie in its technology and partnerships, particularly in the 800G/1.6T optical module space, benefiting from AI data center expansion [3][4]. - Tianfu Communication excels in product offerings and cost management, leading in 800G module shipments and maintaining higher-than-average gross margins [4]. Group 3: Growth Catalysts - Zhongji Xuchuang's growth is driven by the penetration of high-end products like the 1.6T optical module in AI networks [4]. - Tianfu Communication's growth relies on the increasing demand for 800G modules and the potential application of optical modules in horizontal expansion networks by 2027 [4]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by up to 14%, with net profit estimates adjusted by 3%-14% [5]. - The target price for Zhongji Xuchuang has been increased from 442 yuan to 470 yuan, based on a projected P/E ratio of 30 times for 2026 [5]. - Tianfu Communication's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 7%-17%, with net profit estimates adjusted by 7%-16% [6][7]. - The target price for Tianfu Communication has been increased from 398 yuan to 450 yuan, based on a projected P/E ratio of 27 times for 2026 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the communication industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector [2][22]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes three main lines for the communication industry in 2025: differentiation in computing networks, strengthening of the satellite industry, and optimization of the economic cycle [4][5]. - The AI industry is evolving towards inference-driven models, with a diversified approach to computing solutions. The supply-demand turning point for data centers has been observed, and technologies like liquid cooling are accelerating penetration [4][5]. - The satellite communication sector is experiencing intensive industry catalysis, forming a closed loop across the entire industry chain, with direct satellite connections expected to drive growth in antennas, RF chips, and inter-satellite communication [4][5]. - The report identifies several high-quality cyclical stocks with confirmed growth and low valuations, particularly in sectors like Beidou navigation and controllers, suggesting a return of the investment "pendulum" [4][5]. Summary by Sections Computing Network - The AI industry trend is shifting towards inference dominance, with the upstream supply chain for domestic chips and modules beginning to integrate [4]. - Data center supply-demand dynamics are changing, with liquid cooling technologies gaining traction [4][5]. Satellite Communication - The second half of 2024 marks a significant catalyst for the satellite communication industry, with a complete industry chain now established [4][5]. Economic Cycle Optimization - The report highlights the importance of downstream economic conditions, particularly in sectors like Beidou navigation and controllers, indicating a strong potential for cyclical stocks [4][5]. Performance Forecast for Key Companies - The report forecasts significant profit growth for key companies in the communication sector for Q3 2025, with expected net profit growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms, including NewEase (220%), and 5.5G Canqin Technology (120%) [4][14]. - Companies like China Mobile and China Telecom are expected to maintain stable capital expenditures, with a focus on AI computing networks [6][14]. Related Companies - Key companies identified include Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Huagong Technology in the AI computing network segment, and operators like China Mobile and China Telecom [4][6][14].

| 300657 | 弘信电子 | 9 | 5.10 | 6.54 | -10.54 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600879 | 航天电子 | 7 | 5.06 | 8.26 | 4.71 | | 002517 | 恺英网络 | 5 | 4.77 | 7.12 | -13.89 | | 301165 | 锐捷网络 | 8 | 4.59 | 8.00 | -12.21 | | 300010 | 豆神教育 | 5 | 4.57 | 12.99 | -8.70 | | 001267 | 汇绿生态 | 9 | 4.49 | 9.67 | -20.87 | | 002429 | 兆驰股份 | 9 | 4.46 | 7.59 | -10.76 | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | 8 | 4.32 | 7.80 | -13.73 | | 002080 | 中材科技 | 6 | 4.31 | 7.14 | -10.71 | | 300046 | 台基股份 | 7 | 4.27 | 8.38 | -10.46 | | 300398 | 飞凯材料 | 5 | 4.25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the optical module sector, particularly affecting AI-related stocks, has raised concerns among investors, despite optimistic long-term industry trends [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 14, the AI-focused ChiNext index saw a drop of over 5.5%, with major stocks like NewEase falling more than 9% and several others declining over 5% [1]. - The largest AI ETF (159363) experienced a 5.68% drop, reaching a one-month low, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan [1][5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Recent volatility in the optical module sector is attributed to emotional market responses, but institutions remain optimistic about the long-term trends in the industry [3]. - Major AI models like Sora2 and ClaudeSonnet4.5 have exceeded expectations, indicating a potential acceleration in the commercialization of AI [3]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - Valuation reports suggest that leading optical module companies have a significant upside potential, as their actual performance PE is notably lower than consensus expectations [4]. - The current market dynamics reflect a "Davis Double Play" effect in the consumer electronics sector, indicating both explosive growth and sustainability [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the AI computing opportunities centered around optical modules, particularly the first ChiNext AI ETF (159363) and its associated funds [4]. - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the optical module sector, which are expected to be revalued as demand for high-speed optical modules increases [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights significant fluctuations in the overseas computing power chain, particularly in optical module CPO and PCB sectors, influenced by profit-taking pressures, divergent views on AI cloud business profitability, and concerns over potential tariff impacts on the overseas AI industry chain [1] - The A-share communication equipment sector's 2025/26E EPS has not been further revised upward, indicating investor caution amid the current market dynamics [1] - The recent decline in major domestic companies' capital holdings raises concerns about market sentiment and investment in the AI sector [1] Group 2 - Short-term volatility may provide a strategic entry point for investments, as Alibaba is advancing a three-year plan to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with expectations of significant capital expenditure in Q4 [2] - Alibaba Cloud's energy consumption is projected to increase tenfold by 2032 compared to 2022, reflecting the long-term demand for computing power in the AI sector [2] - The 5G communication ETF (515050) tracks the CSI 5G Communication Theme Index, focusing on key players like Nvidia, Apple, and Huawei, with a total scale exceeding 9 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - The Huaxia (159381) ETF, which tracks the ChiNext AI Index, has a significant weight in optical module CPO at 51.8%, and includes domestic software and AI application companies, providing high elasticity [3] - The top three weighted stocks in this ETF are Zhongji Xuchuang (20.95%), Xinyi Sheng (20.42%), and Tianfu Communication (5.39%) [3] - The ETF has a low comprehensive fee rate of only 0.20%, making it attractive compared to similar products [3]

10月14日，天孚通信盘中下跌2.01%，截至10:01，报153.73元/股，成交10.23亿元，换手率0.84%，总市 值1195.12亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，天孚通信十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1797.00万股，相比上期增加839.37万股。易方达创业板ETF（159915）位居第四大流通股 东，持股1077.17万股，相比上期增加301.10万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第五大流通股 东，持股834.01万股，相比上期增加292.98万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第六大流通股东， 持股591.85万股，相比上期增加211.91万股。华夏沪深300ETF（510330）位居第七大流通股东，持股 434.11万股，相比上期增加176.55万股。万家品质生活A（519195）位居第八大流通股东，持股415.97万 股，相比上期增加78.63万股。华安创业板50ETF（159949）位居第九大流通股东，持股406.50万股，相 比上期增加96.88万股。嘉实沪深300ETF（159919）位居第十大流通股东，持股 ...