Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese pet industry has experienced unprecedented growth since the 21st century, transitioning from viewing pets as mere tools for guarding to recognizing them as essential emotional companions and family members [1][9] - The pet service sector has diversified significantly, encompassing medical, grooming, boarding, and training services to meet the evolving needs of pet owners [1][9] - The market for pet services in China is projected to grow from 34.034 billion yuan in 2015 to 104.47 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% [1][10] Pet Service Industry Overview - The pet industry includes all activities related to pets, such as breeding, trading, and providing goods and services like pet food, supplies, and services [3] - Pet services are defined as non-physical consumption services for pets and their owners, covering a wide range of offerings from grooming and medical care to training and insurance [3] Market Growth and Trends - The number of urban pets in China is expected to rise from 87.46 million in 2017 to 124.11 million by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.13% [5] - The pet consumption market in China is anticipated to expand from 97.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.27% [8] - In 2024, pet food is projected to account for 52.8% of the market, while pet services will represent 34.8% [8] Industry Development History - The establishment of the China Small Animal Protection Association in 1992 marked the beginning of the pet industry in China, promoting the concept of pets as companions [5] - Over the past thirty years, the pet service industry has evolved from basic breeding and trading to a comprehensive service model covering the entire lifecycle of pets [5][6] Industry Structure and Key Players - The pet service industry features a diverse competitive landscape, with key players in medical services including New Ruipeng and Ruipai, while grooming and boarding services are dominated by regional brands like Baozaiwu and Paiduo [10] - The market remains fragmented, with opportunities for growth through service extension, technological empowerment, and brand building [10] Future Trends in Pet Services - The industry is expected to embrace intelligent technology, integrating smart wearables and online platforms for enhanced pet health management and service efficiency [12] - Services will increasingly focus on emotional value and personalized experiences, such as customized training and memorial services for pets [13] - The service model will diversify, combining online and offline experiences, with O2O platforms and community-based services enhancing user engagement [14]

Investment Rating - The report rates the company as "Outperform" with a target price of RMB 20 [4][13]. Core Insights - The company maintains growth in its pet food brand, particularly in the dog snack segment, and is actively expanding its overseas customer base, which is expected to drive new order growth [1][4]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth during the 2025 Double 11 shopping festival through effective marketing strategies, solidifying its leading position in the dog snack category [4][14]. - The company focuses on developing its own brand in the mid-to-high-end pet food sector, supported by strong production, marketing, and R&D capabilities, which are rare in the industry [4][15]. - Tariff changes have temporarily pressured overseas business, but the company is optimistic about new client expansion opportunities, particularly in Europe [4][16]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2023 is RMB 1,411 million, with an expected increase to RMB 2,416 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 11 million in 2023 to RMB 241 million by 2027, indicating a strong turnaround [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from -0.04 RMB in 2023 to 0.97 RMB in 2027 [3]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in China's pet snack food sector and has received numerous accolades for its quality and innovation [9]. - The company is actively pursuing high-end market segments, with plans to introduce a New Zealand brand targeting premium pricing in the domestic market by 2026 [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - The feed sector experienced a decline of 1.6% on November 20, with Tianma Technology leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.76% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The feed sector's individual stock performance showed mixed results, with Hai Da Group slightly increasing by 0.02% to close at 58.55, while Tianma Technology dropped significantly by 9.90% to 15.02 [1][2]. - The total trading volume for the feed sector was substantial, with Hai Da Group recording a transaction amount of 2.12 billion, and Tianma Technology reaching 10.94 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 498 million from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 239 million [2]. - Specific stocks like Hai Da Group and He Feng Co. experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Group 1: Pet Food Industry - Petty Co., Ltd. - Petty Co., Ltd. maintains growth in its self-owned pet food brand, particularly solidifying its position in the dog snack segment [2][19] - The company is actively expanding its overseas customer base, particularly in Europe, which is expected to drive new order growth [2][20] - During the 2025 Double 11 shopping festival, the company achieved significant revenue growth for its self-owned brand through strategic marketing initiatives [2][19] - The company’s production technology is leading in the pet food sector, and it has made breakthroughs with its self-owned brands [19][20] - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end pet food market, supported by strong production, marketing, and R&D capabilities [20] Group 2: iQIYI, Inc. - iQIYI's revenue stabilized in Q3 2025, achieving 6.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [5][30] - The company’s overseas business showed strong growth, with Q3 2025 total revenue and membership income achieving the highest growth in the past two years [6][31] - AI is driving innovation in content creation and advertising efficiency, with over 70% of promotional materials generated through AI [6][31] - The company plans to expand its original content production in successful overseas markets like Thailand [6][31] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 27.3 billion, 28.9 billion, and 29.9 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 0.9 billion, 1.04 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan respectively [5][30]

Core Insights - On November 19, brokerages provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for 易瑞生物 (Yirui Biotech), 中国海诚 (China Haicheng), and 健康元 (Health元), showing target price increases of 44.37%, 40.26%, and 26.01% respectively, across the medical device, professional engineering, and chemical pharmaceutical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - 易瑞生物 (Yirui Biotech) received a target price of 15.00 yuan with a target increase of 44.37% from 华创证券 (Huachuang Securities) [2]. - 中国海诚 (China Haicheng) has a target price of 15.40 yuan, reflecting a 40.26% increase from 国泰海通证券 (Guotai Junan Securities) [2]. - 健康元 (Health元) was assigned a target price of 15.26 yuan, indicating a 26.01% increase from 国泰海通证券 (Guotai Junan Securities) [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 37 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on November 19, with 伊利股份 (Yili Group) receiving recommendations from 3 brokerages, 南方航空 (Southern Airlines) from 1, and 易瑞生物 (Yirui Biotech) from 1 [3]. - 伊利股份 (Yili Group) closed at 29.58 yuan and was recommended by 3 brokerages in the beverage and dairy industry [3]. Group 3: First Coverage - On November 19, 6 companies received initial coverage from brokerages, including 潮宏基 (Chao Hong Ji) with a "Buy" rating from 首创证券 (Shouchuang Securities) [4]. - 海容冷链 (Hairong Cold Chain) received an "Increase" rating from 兴业证券 (Industrial Securities) [4]. - 风华高科 (Fenghua High-Tech) was rated "Buy" by 中邮证券 (China Post Securities) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 20.00 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - Petty Co.'s self-owned pet food brand continues to grow, particularly solidifying its position in the dog snack segment. The company is actively expanding its overseas customer base, especially in Europe, which is expected to drive new order growth [2][13]. - The company achieved significant sales growth during the 2025 Double 11 shopping festival, with its self-owned brand experiencing high revenue growth, particularly in new staple foods and duck snacks [13]. - Petty Co. is focusing on the mid-to-high-end pet food market, leveraging its strong production capabilities, marketing skills, and leading R&D investments. The company aims to enhance its self-owned brand's market share through various strategies, including the introduction of high-end products from New Zealand [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline by 18.5% in 2023, followed by a recovery with a 17.6% increase in 2024, and further growth in subsequent years, reaching 2,416 million CNY by 2027 [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2024, with a significant increase of 1,742.8% to 182 million CNY, and further growth anticipated in the following years [4][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 CNY in 2024, with a gradual increase to 0.97 CNY by 2027 [4][14]. Market Position and Valuation - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35x for 2025, which is slightly above the industry average, corresponding to the target price of 20 CNY [13]. - The current market capitalization stands at 4,506 million CNY, with a share price of 18.11 CNY [7][8]. Operational Highlights - The company has been actively expanding its overseas business, particularly in response to the challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies, with improvements noted in its order recovery from European clients [13]. - Petty Co. is expected to see a further increase in non-U.S. orders in its ODM business by 2026, indicating a positive outlook for international expansion [13].