证券研究报告 外部环境多变，农业防御优势凸显 农林牧渔行业2025年中期投资策略 陈雪丽（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520030001 邮箱：chenxueli@kysec.cn 王高展（联系人） 证书编号：S0790123060055 邮箱：wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 朱本伦（联系人） 证书编号：S0790124060020 邮箱：zhubenlun@kysec.cn 2025年5月5日 核心观点 1. 生猪：内外围共振利多猪价，生猪防御优势凸显投资逻辑强化 国内供需看，步入2025Q2生猪需求边际向好，猪价中枢有支撑且逐步进入阶段性上行期；外围看，关税驱动饲料原料价格上涨及 进口肉类成本抬升。内外围共振利多猪价，生猪板块在关税等宏观冲击防御优势凸显且投资逻辑强化，建议积极配置。推荐标的： 温氏股份、牧原股份、巨星农牧；受益标的：神农集团、华统股份、天康生物、京基智农、唐人神等。 2.白鸡：需求韧性十足禽流感扰动再起，白鸡低位配置价值显现 中美关税政策扰动及海外禽流感不确定性增加我国祖代白羽鸡引种不确定性及引种成本，国内宏观经济回暖白羽肉鸡消费边际向 好，多因素驱动下白鸡低位逻辑边际改善， ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q1 农业板块公募重仓持股占 比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持—行业 周报》-2025.4.27 《2025Q1 农业板块公募基金重仓持 股占比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持— 行业点评报告》-2025.4.24 《3 月肉鸡价格小幅回暖，关注五一 和端午需求回暖支撑价格—行业点评 报告》-2025.4.22 2024 年养殖板块利润同比高增，宠物板块高景气延 续 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | wanggaozhan@kyse ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 05 月 05 日 相关研究报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 农林牧渔 沪深300 《2025Q1 农业板块公募重仓持股占 比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持—行业 周报》-2025.4.27 《2025Q1 农业板块公募基金重仓持 股占比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持— 行业点评报告》-2025.4.24 《3 月肉鸡价格小幅回暖，关注五一 和端午需求回暖支撑价格—行业点评 报告》-2025.4.22 2024 年养殖板块利润同比高增，宠物板块高景气延 续 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | wanggaozhan@kyse ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：好想你(002582)、来伊份(603777)、良品铺子(603719)、三只松鼠(300783)、乖宝宠 物(301498)、路斯股份(832419)等 产业链剖析：中游为核心环节 我国的冻干食品行业整体隶属于农产品和农副产品加工行业，行业上游主要是原材料和冻干设备，中游 是食品冻干加工，行业下游则是批发商、商超、便利店和食品企业等渠道。 冻干食品行业 产业链区域热力地图：山东分布最集中 从冻干食品产业链企业区域分布来看，相关企业集中在山东、江苏等地，安徽、河南、福建等地也分布 着一定数量的冻干食品企业。 | 公司简称 | 相关业务营收(亿元) | 毛利率(%) | 其他指标 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 好想你(002582) | 健康锁鲜类:0.35 | 11.50% | 门店数量:390家 | | 来伊份(603777) | 糖果蜜饯及果蔬:3.41 | 45.18% | 门店数量:3472家 | | 良品铺子 (603719) | 果干果脯:6.67 | 33.15% | 门店数量:2814 家 | | 三只松鼠(300783) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the pet food industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the market benchmark [3]. Core Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing significant growth, with domestic brands outperforming foreign competitors due to a trend of domestic substitution. Leading domestic brands like Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co. are showing impressive sales growth and profitability [1]. - Guai Bao Pet's main brand, Mai Fu Di, has maintained the top position on Tmall for five consecutive years, achieving a 150% year-on-year sales increase during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival. The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, a 21.22% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 625 million yuan, up 45.68% [1]. - Zhong Chong Co. has developed a strong portfolio of proprietary brands and reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.15% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% [1]. - Petty Co. also showed strong performance with a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, a 17.56% increase year-on-year, and a remarkable net profit growth of 1742.81% [1]. - The report highlights the increasing consumer focus on experience-driven pet care, with new retail formats emerging that combine product offerings with services, catering to the evolving needs of pet owners [2]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Guai Bao Pet achieved a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 625 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1]. - Zhong Chong Co. reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, showcasing robust brand performance [1]. - Petty Co. reached a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase to 1.82 billion yuan, marking a historic high [1]. Market Trends - The pet food sector is identified as the largest segment within the pet industry, driven by the essential nature of pet care throughout their lifecycle [1]. - The report notes a shift towards high-end market opportunities due to uncertainties in tariffs, which may benefit companies with strong proprietary brands [1]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong channel strategies and innovative product offerings, such as Tian Yuan Pet and Yi Yi Co., as well as those expanding into smart pet care solutions [3]. - Companies like Guai Bao Pet and Petty Co. are highlighted for their impressive growth in proprietary brand sales, indicating potential investment opportunities [3].

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the urban dog and cat consumption market reaching 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The dog consumption market is valued at 155.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.6%, while the cat consumption market is at 144.5 billion yuan, increasing by 10.7% [4][14] - The demographic shift towards younger pet owners, particularly among the post-90s and post-00s generations, is driving demand for pet products and services. The post-90s account for 41.2% of pet owners, while the post-00s represent 25.6%, marking a significant increase of 15.5 percentage points year-on-year [5][18] - The online sales channel for pet food has become dominant, with over 80% of pet owners purchasing staple food through traditional online channels. The Taobao and Tmall platforms hold over 50% market share in the pet industry, with a significant increase in user engagement and sales [6][46] Summary by Sections Pet Industry Scale - The pet market is expanding, with the urban dog and cat consumption market surpassing 300 billion yuan for the first time. The growth is driven by the increasing number of young pet owners and their willingness to spend on pet care [4][14] - The pet population is also on the rise, with the number of pet dogs reaching 52.58 million and pet cats at 71.53 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.6% and 2.5% respectively compared to 2023 [14][25] Online Channel Transformation - The e-commerce landscape for pet products is evolving, with a multi-polar structure forming. Taobao and Tmall dominate the online market, while Douyin (TikTok) is rapidly gaining traction, showing a 65% year-on-year growth in the pet category [6][52] - Major promotional events like Double Eleven have demonstrated strong consumer resilience, with significant increases in sales across various platforms, indicating a robust market for pet products [6][57] Offline Channel Upgrade - Offline retail for pet products is recovering, with a notable increase in the number of pet hospitals and stores. The offline channel accounts for 44% of total consumer spending in the pet industry, highlighting the importance of physical services [7][66] - The medical market for pets is substantial, comprising nearly 30% of the overall market share, with a rapid increase in the number of pet hospitals, totaling 28,975 by the end of 2024 [7][80] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the dual themes of "domestic substitution and consumption upgrade" within the pet economy. Recommended stocks include: "Guibao Pet," "Petty Co.," "Zhongchong Co.," and "Lusi Co." [8]

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the urban dog and cat consumption market reaching 300.2 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The dog consumption market is valued at 155.7 billion RMB, growing by 4.6%, while the cat consumption market is at 144.5 billion RMB, increasing by 10.7% [4][14] - The demographic shift towards younger pet owners, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, is driving consumption upgrades and creating a robust demand for pet products and services [5][18] - The online sales channel for pet food has become dominant, with over 80% of pet owners purchasing staple food through traditional online channels, and the Taobao platform holding over 50% market share [6][46] - The offline retail market is recovering, with a significant portion of spending still occurring in physical stores, particularly for services like grooming and veterinary care [7][66] Summary by Sections Pet Industry Scale - The pet market is expanding, with the urban dog and cat consumption market surpassing 300 billion RMB, driven by a growing number of young pet owners [4][14] - The number of pet owners aged 00s has increased significantly, indicating a shift in consumer demographics [5][18] - The pet food market remains the largest segment, accounting for 52.8% of total consumption, followed by the medical market at 28.0% [24][84] Online Channel Transformation - The online channel is the primary sales avenue for pet food, with 80% of purchases made through traditional online platforms [6][43] - Taobao and Douyin are leading platforms, with Douyin's pet category experiencing a 65% year-on-year growth in 2024 [52][46] - The growth of live streaming and content-driven sales is enhancing consumer engagement and driving sales [43][52] Offline Channel Upgrade - Offline channels account for 44% of total pet spending, with a notable increase in service-oriented spending [66][71] - The number of pet stores has surpassed 90,000, indicating a robust growth in physical retail presence [75][76] - The medical market is a significant segment, with nearly 30% market share and a rapid increase in the number of veterinary clinics [80][84] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands that are rapidly emerging in the pet food sector, recommending companies such as "Guibao Pet," "Petty Co.," "Zhongchong Co.," and "Lusi Co." as potential investment targets [8]

2） 柬埔寨：柬埔寨爵味工厂目前处于产能快速爬坡阶段，订单交付能力大幅提升。2024 年柬埔寨爵味 实现净利润0.51 亿元、利润率达到14.3%（vs23 年为-1%），成为利润的重要来源。 3） 新西兰：根据公告，新西兰年产4 万吨高品质主粮产线已正式投产，目前处于产能爬坡的状态，预 计 2025 年度将有 20%～30%的产能释放出来。 4） 关于关税波动风险，根据公告，2025 年公司已经把美国客户的订单基本上全部转移到东南亚工厂交 付，佩蒂在宠物咬胶细分市场和客户深度合作，有望依靠全球化产能布局对冲扰动。 国内自主品牌保持较快增长，打造爆品带动品牌增长根据公告，2024 年公司在国内市场实现销售收入 2.88 亿元人民币， 主要由自主品牌贡献。自主品牌收入规模增长 33%，其中爵宴品牌增长 52%。2024 年毛利率为31.7%，同比增长8.04pct，盈利能力得到明显改善。展望2025 年，公司将聚焦自主品牌，打 造爆品驱动增长。 佩蒂股份2024 年实现营业收入16.59 亿元，同比增长17.6%；归母净利润达1.82亿元，实现扭亏为盈。 24 年毛利率提升至29.4%，同比增加超过10pct， ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 饲料 佩蒂股份(300673) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 29 日 发力自主品牌，全球化产能布局对冲扰动 ——佩蒂股份 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 投资要点 佩蒂股份发布 2024 年报&2025 年一季报： 佩蒂股份 2024 年实现营业收入 16.59 亿元，同比增长 17.6%；归母净利润达 1.82 亿元，实现扭亏为盈。24 年毛利率提升至 29.4%，同比增加超过 10pct，得益于 产品结构优化、海外基地产能利用率提升。 分业务看，2024 年畜皮咬胶、植物咬胶、营养肉质零食、主粮和湿粮收入分别 为 5.05 亿元、6.08 亿元、4.03 亿元、1.18 亿元，同比+19.1%、+43.7%、 +26.6%、-43.6%。 分季度看，2024Q4 和 2025Q1 营业收入 3.36 亿元（同比-32.1%）和 3.29 亿元 （同比-14.4%），归母净利润分别为 0.27 亿元（同比+51.7%）和 0.22 亿元（同比 -46.7%），季度业绩受到客户订单波动影响。 海外产能利用率保持高位，全球化产能布局对冲扰动 | [Table_Forc ...

佩蒂于 2024 年成立佩蒂宠物健康营养研究院，将借助这一 开放性的研发平台，深入关注宠物生命全周期的营养需求、心理 健康和行为研究，最大限度地利用科研资源、转化科技成果，丰 富我们的营养健康产品，用科学的方式保障每一只宠物的健康。 我们一直在努力构建覆盖全产业链的可持续生态。 二、问答交流主要信息 问题 1：2024 年度及 2025 年第一季度，公司销售费用增长明显， 其中广告宣传费用占比较大，广告投入都有哪些方向？ 答：国内销售费用主要聚焦于品牌建设与渠道拓展两大核心领 域。一是在品牌战略层面，公司通过系统化的市场推广及品牌宣 传活动，持续强化品牌认知度与美誉度，以品牌形象构建市场竞 争优势。二是在渠道优化方面，依托精准的渠道资源投放，着力 完善终端网络布局，深化渠道合作伙伴关系，有效提升市场覆盖 率与销售渗透能力。 规模效应，经营质量大幅提升。大家比较关注的新西兰主粮目前 处于一个产能爬坡的状态，预计今年二季度产能释放明显加快， 可以满足国内外高端主粮品牌的多样化需求。 2023 年，在中国"3060"双碳目标的指引下，我们携手壳 牌中国开启了一场绿色革命。这一年，温州生产基地经国际权威 机构 SGS ...