▌ 盈利预测 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 司 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

法律声明 本报告的版权归本公司所有。本公司对本报告保留一切权利。除非另有书面显示，否则本报告中的所有材料的版权 均属本公司。未经本公司事先书面授权，本报告的任何部分均不得以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制 品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及 标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。 食品饮料/休闲食品 立高食品（300973.SZ） 2024 年 05 月 01 日 张宇光（分析师） 方勇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 fangyong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520100003 2023 年公司营收 34.99 亿元，同比+20.22%；扣非前后归母净利润 0.73、1.22 亿 元，同比-49.21%、-14.95%。2024Q1 公司营收 9.16 亿元，同比+15.31%；扣非 前后归母净利润 0.77、0.68 亿元，同比+53.96%、+40.29%。因冷冻烘焙短期承 压，我们下调 2024-2025 年归母净利润预测至 2.71/3.42 亿元（前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][23]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 earnings have significantly improved, with expectations for resilience in 2024. The high-end cream series shows strong growth, driven by a trend towards premiumization in baking cream and the potential for domestic cream to replace imported products. The coffee and tea beverage sectors are also contributing to new usage scenarios for cream [6][19]. - The company has made substantial progress in expanding its channels, particularly in the catering, tea beverage, and new retail sectors, which are expected to contribute more incrementally in 2024. Marketing reforms are ongoing, with a focus on optimizing operations across various aspects, including R&D, procurement, and logistics [6][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.22%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 73 million yuan, a decline of 49.21%. In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 916 million yuan, up 15.31%, and a net profit of 77 million yuan, an increase of 53.96% [19][24]. - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 31.4%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 13.5%, 9.6%, and 4.2%, respectively, showing increases year-on-year [20][22]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 16%. The net profit is forecasted to reach 273 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 274% [24][23]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the baking supply chain, with strong R&D capabilities and a diverse product matrix. The ongoing reforms are expected to enhance operational efficiency further [23][24]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to benefit from the growth in the high-end cream market and the expansion of its distribution channels, particularly in catering and new retail [6][19].

证券研究报告|食品饮料 投资要点: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_ForecastSample] | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | 3499.10 | 4083.46 | 4732.66 | 5492.27 | | 增长比率 ( % ) | 20.22 | 16.70 | 15.90 | 16.05 | | 归母净利润(百万元 ) | 73.03 | 251.79 | 291.32 | 337.96 | | 增长比率 ( % ) | -49.21 | 244.79 | 15.70 | 16.01 | | 每股收益(元 ) | 0.43 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.00 | | 市盈率(倍 ) | 84.52 | 24.51 | 21.19 | 18.26 | | 市净率（倍） | 2.50 | 2.39 | 2.22 | 2.04 | | --- | -- ...

[Table_Title] 营收持续增长，费用计提及毛利率下降拖累 净利润 [Table_Summary] 报告关键要素: 投资要点: 品看，2023 年冷冻烘焙食品营收 22.11 亿元，同比增长 23.93%；烘焙 食品原料营收 12.62 亿元，同比增长 12.71%，其中奶油/水果制品/酱 料/其他烘焙原材料分别营收 6.54/1.87/2.33/1.87 亿元，同比 +27.65%/-8.45%/+18.12%/-8.75%。分渠道看，2023 年经销/直销/零售 营收分别为 19.71/14.89/0.13 亿元，同比+4.32%/+49.23%/-21.82%， 渠道分化较明显。其中，直销渠道中商超营收占比接近 30%，同比增长 约 50%，公司在核心商超渠道收入表现稳健增长，核心单品与新品销售 体量较为理想，新老结构梯度合理。餐饮、茶饮及新零售等创新渠道收 入占比接近 15%，合计同比增速接近翻倍。截至 2023 年末，公司销售 数据来源：携宁科技云估值,万联证券研究所 [Table_StockRank] 增持(维持) -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.499 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.22%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 73 million yuan, a significant decline of 49.21% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company is expected to see a substantial recovery in net profit, with projections of 265 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 263.5% [4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new products, particularly in the frozen baking segment, which achieved a revenue of 2.211 billion yuan in 2023, up 23.93% year-on-year [4]. - The company is diversifying its sales channels, with a notable increase in revenue from supermarkets and innovative channels such as restaurants and new retail, which have nearly doubled year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 31.39%, with a slight improvement to 32.59% in Q1 2024 due to better capacity utilization and lower procurement costs [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.037 billion yuan, 4.588 billion yuan, and 5.151 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 15.4%, 13.7%, and 12.3% [4][14]. - The projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 265 million yuan, 311 million yuan, and 369 million yuan, with growth rates of 263.5%, 17.3%, and 18.4% respectively [4][14]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS), expected to rise from 0.43 yuan in 2023 to 1.57 yuan in 2024, 1.84 yuan in 2025, and 2.18 yuan in 2026 [4][15]. Financial Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 85 in 2023 to 23 in 2024, 20 in 2025, and 17 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation [4][15]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 2.5 in 2023 to 2.4 in 2024, 2.2 in 2025, and 2.1 in 2026 [4][15]. - The report notes a projected return on assets (ROA) of 1.85% in 2023, increasing to 6.32% in 2024, and a return on equity (ROE) of 2.95% in 2023, rising to 10.20% in 2024 [6][14].

公 司 研 究 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|---------|-------------------------|--------|--------| | ＄ 会计年度 zycwzb\| 主要财务指标＄ | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | | 3499 4097 4716 5315 | | | | 同比增长 | 20.22% | 17.09% | 15.10% | 12.72% | | 归母净利润 ( 百万元 ) | | 73 287 366 433 | | | | 同比增长 | -49.21% | 292.92% | 27.68% | 18.06% | | 毛利率 | 31.39% | 32.62% | 32.90% | 33.09% | | ROE | 2.95% | 10.76% | 12.07% | 12.48% | | 每股收益 ( 元 ) | | 0.43 1.69 2.16 2 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 04 月 29 日 立高食品 (300973) ——23 年业绩承压 24 年盈利有望改善 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 04 月 29 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 36.45 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 95.33/27.14 | | 市净率 | 2.5 | | 息率（分红/ 股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 3858 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3113.04/9673.76 | | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 03 月 31 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 14.78 | | 资产负债率 % | 35.50 | | ...

稳健增长，盈利改善 [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 2,911 3,499 4,282 5,225 6,330 增长率 yoy% 3% 20% 22% 22% 21% 净利润（百万元） 144 73 351 454 562 增长率 yoy% -49% -49% 380% 30% 24% 每股收益（元） 0.85 0.43 2.07 2.68 3.32 每股现金流量 2.02 1.80 2.79 3.21 4.13 净资产收益率 7% 3% 13% 14% 15% P/E 42.9 84.5 17.6 13.6 11.0 P/B 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 备注：股价选取 2024 年 4 月 29 日收盘价 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 169 流通股本(百万股) 106 市价(元) 36.45 市值(百万元) 6,172 流通市值(百万元) 3,858 分析师：范劲松 Email：fanjs@ zts.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市 ...

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3 / 4 [Table_PageText] 立高食品|年报点评 广发证券股份有限公司及其关联机构可能与本报告中提及的公司寻求或正在建立业务关系，因此，投资者应当考虑广发证券股份有限公司 及其关联机构因可能存在的潜在利益冲突而对本报告的独立性产生影响。投资者不应仅依据本报告内容作出任何投资决策。投资者应自主 作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险，任何形式的分享证券投资收益或者分担证券投资损失的书面或者口头承诺均为无效。 本报告署名研究人员、联系人（以下均简称"研究人员"）针对本报告中相关公司或证券的研究分析内容，在此声明：（1）本报告的全部 分析结论、研究观点均精确反映研究人员于本报告发出当日的关于相关公司或证券的所有个人观点，并不代表广发证券的立场；（2）研究 人员的部分或全部的报酬无论在过去、现在还是将来均不会与本报告所述特定分析结论、研究观点具有直接或间接的联系。 研究人员制作本报告的报酬标准依据研究质量、客户评价、工作量等多种因素确定，其影响因素亦包括广发证券的整体经营收入，该等经 营收入部分来源于广发证券的投资银行类业务。 本报告仅面向经广发证券授权使用的客户 ...