Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][10]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in cost control [5][10]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the introduction of new products and channel expansion [8][10]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 43.12 CNY - Total shares: 1.69 billion, circulating shares: 1.14 billion - Total market capitalization: 73 billion CNY, circulating market capitalization: 49 billion CNY - 52-week high/low: 47.99 CNY / 22.58 CNY - Debt-to-asset ratio: 41.2% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 27.04 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.835 billion CNY, net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million CNY, and adjusted net profit of 254 million CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 9.61%, 266.94%, and 108.22% respectively [5]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 1.118 billion CNY, net profit was 65 million CNY, and adjusted net profit was 62 million CNY, with year-on-year growth of 21.99%, 175.96%, and 359.73% respectively [5]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.046 billion CNY, net profit was 88 million CNY, and adjusted net profit was 86 million CNY, showing year-on-year growth of 14.13%, 15.11%, and 27.3% respectively [5]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The growth in 2024 was primarily driven by high growth in cream products, leading to double-digit growth in distribution channels, while supermarket channels experienced a decline due to product cycle adjustments [6]. - In Q1 2025, the company saw strong performance from new products in Sam's Club, with supermarket channel revenue growing over 40% due to the launch of core customer new products [6]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 31.47% and a net margin of 6.99% in 2024, with significant improvements in expense ratios [7]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 29.99% and the net margin was 8.45%, maintaining stability despite cost pressures from rising raw material prices [7]. Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen its cream product strategy and continuously launch customized new products to drive revenue growth from both product and channel perspectives [8]. - The company is also addressing capacity constraints by investing in new production lines for cream products [8][9]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 4.466 billion CNY and 5.049 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.45% and 13.05% [10]. - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 357 million CNY and 414 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.24% and 15.93% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in cost control leading to a notable increase in net profit [5][7]. - The company is focusing on a single product strategy for cream and plans to introduce customized new products to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The company is facing some cost pressures due to rising raw material prices but is managing to maintain stable profit margins through effective cost control measures [9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 43.12 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 73 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 49 billion CNY [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.69 billion shares, with 1.14 billion shares in circulation [4]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 41.2%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 27.04 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.835 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million CNY, up 266.94% [5][12]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.046 billion CNY, a 14.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 88 million CNY, reflecting a 15.11% growth [5][12]. - The company expects to continue revenue growth in 2025, with projected operating revenues of 4.466 billion CNY and net profits of 357 million CNY, representing year-on-year increases of 16.45% and 33.24%, respectively [10][12]. Product and Channel Performance - In 2024, the cream product line drove double-digit growth in distribution channels, while the supermarket channel experienced a decline due to product cycle adjustments [6]. - In Q1 2025, the supermarket channel showed a recovery with over 40% year-on-year revenue growth, primarily due to the launch of new products for key customers [6][8]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in the frozen baking segment with new ice cream cakes and other upgraded products [8]. Cost Management - The company has implemented strict control over its headquarters personnel and sales incentive mechanisms, leading to significant optimization of expense ratios [7]. - Despite facing cost pressures from rising raw material prices, the company has managed to maintain stable profit margins through effective cost management strategies [9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to reflect higher expected revenues and profits, with projected revenues of 4.466 billion CNY and 5.049 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 2.11 CNY and 2.44 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20.90 and 18.03 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that revenue growth is driven by cream products, with efficiency improvements optimizing profitability. The company is expected to continue benefiting from the rapid growth phase of the frozen baking industry in China, leveraging its advantages in scale, capital, management, and R&D [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 38.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.61%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.68 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 266.94% [6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.46 billion yuan, up 14.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.88 billion yuan, which is a 15.11% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is reported at 31.47%, with a net profit margin of 6.99%, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9 percentage points [6]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from frozen baked goods and baking raw materials was 21.33 billion yuan and 16.75 billion yuan, respectively. The cream products within the baking raw materials segment saw a revenue increase of 61.75% [6]. - The sales channels for 2024 included 22.22 billion yuan from distribution, 15.86 billion yuan from direct sales, and 0.09 billion yuan from retail, with the growth primarily driven by the distribution channel [6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates that the company has optimized its expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing in 2024 compared to the previous year [6]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 8.45%, showing a slight year-on-year increase [6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the increasing demand for cream and sauce products, with rapid growth anticipated in the whipped cream segment [6]. - The competitive landscape is improving, which is seen as a catalyst for the stock price increase [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% [1] - The revenue from cream products saw significant growth, while frozen baked goods faced slight pressure [2] - The company has successfully launched innovative products and enhanced its production capabilities, contributing to revenue growth [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 1.118 billion yuan, an increase of 21.99%, with a net profit of 64.86 million yuan, up 175.96% [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.046 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.13%, with a net profit of 88.37 million yuan, up 15.11% [1] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 6.99% in 2024, with a slight increase in gross margin to 31.47% [4] Product Performance - Revenue from frozen baked goods in 2024 was 2.133 billion yuan, down 3.53%, while cream revenue surged to 1.058 billion yuan, up 61.75% [2] - The company introduced innovative products, including the 4.0 Portuguese tart crust, which won innovation awards at the 2024 baking exhibition [2] Channel Performance - The distribution channel accounted for 57% of total revenue in 2024, benefiting from the upgrade of cream products and domestic substitution advantages [3] - The innovative channel, including catering and new retail, grew by 20%, supported by resource allocation and diversified channel strategies [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - The company managed to reduce its expense ratio significantly, with a total expense ratio of 22.09% in 2024, down 5.57 percentage points [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 29.99%, reflecting cost pressures, while the net profit margin slightly improved to 8.45% [4] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 330 million yuan, 394 million yuan, and 445 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.95, 2.33, and 2.63 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for 2024 is 3.835 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 268 million yuan, up 266.94%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items is 254 million yuan, an increase of 108.22% [2][5]. - In Q4 2024, the total revenue reached 1.118 billion yuan, a growth of 21.99%, with a net profit of 64.86 million yuan, up 175.96% [2][5]. - For Q1 2025, the total revenue is 1.046 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.13%, with a net profit of 88.37 million yuan, up 15.11% [2][5]. Financial Performance - The revenue breakdown shows that frozen baked goods generated 2.133 billion yuan (down 3.53%), while cream products saw a significant increase of 61.75% to 1.058 billion yuan. Other categories like fruit products and sauces experienced declines [10]. - The company has launched innovative products, such as the 4.0 Portuguese tart crust, and has invested in automation to enhance cost control and product quality [10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is slightly up to 31.47%, while the net profit margin increased by 4.9 percentage points to 6.99% [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 330 million, 394 million, and 445 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.95, 2.33, and 2.63 yuan [10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 19, 16, and 14 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in frozen baking and continued growth in cream products. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 321 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 19.6% [4][5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 1.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 88 million yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue from the cream business grew significantly, with UHT high-end cream sales exceeding 500 million yuan. The frozen baking segment saw a 12% increase in revenue in Q1 2025, driven by the expansion of KA stores and new product launches [5][6] - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 2.56 percentage points year-on-year due to rising raw material costs, particularly palm oil. However, the overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating effective cost control [6][7] Business Segment Analysis - In 2024, the frozen baking revenue declined by 3.5%, while cream, fruit products, and sauces saw increases of 61.8%, -11.3%, and -3.6% respectively. The cream segment's growth was a key contributor to the overall revenue increase [5][6] - The company is focusing on product efficiency by reducing SKU counts and enhancing procurement strategies to lower costs. The long-term outlook for frozen baking is positive, with expectations of gradual market penetration [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.89 yuan, 2.40 yuan, and 2.85 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.8, 18.0, and 15.1 [4][9] - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 4.36 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.31 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.3% [9][11]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·休闲食品 立高食品（300973） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李茵琦 执业证书：S0600524110002 liyinqi@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：Q1 业绩超 预期，内部改革效果释放 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,499 | 3,835 | 4,420 | 4,897 | 5,390 | | 同比（%） | 20.22 | 9.61 | 15.24 | 10.80 | 10.05 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 73.03 | 267.97 | 340.87 | 415.91 | 472.25 | | 同比（%） | (49.21) ...

近期立高食品（300973）发布2025年一季报，证券之星财报模型分析如下： 营收与利润 立高食品在2025年一季度实现了营业总收入10.46亿元，同比上升14.13%；归母净利润达到8837.15万 元，同比增长15.11%；扣非净利润为8626.43万元，同比大幅增长27.3%。这表明公司在主营业务方面保 持了良好的增长态势。 盈利能力 尽管收入和利润有所增长，但公司的盈利能力指标显示出一定的压力。毛利率为29.99%，同比下降 7.97%；净利率为8.2%，同比下降1.13%。这可能意味着公司在成本控制方面面临挑战。 费用控制 值得注意的是，公司的三费(销售费用、管理费用、财务费用)总计1.69亿元，占营收比例为16.13%，较 去年同期下降14.5%。这表明公司在费用控制方面取得了一定成效。 应收账款与现金流 本季度，立高食品的应收账款显著增加至3.69亿元，同比增幅达37.83%，远超营业收入的增长速度。同 时，每股经营性现金流为-0.2元，同比减少267.74%，显示出公司在现金流管理方面存在较大压力。 资产负债情况 公司的有息负债为11.2亿元，同比增加19.46%，有息资产负债率已达25.87 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by product diversification and effective channel management [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, growing 14.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, an increase of 15.11% [1]. Product Performance - The company expanded its product matrix, with notable performance in cream products, which generated over 500 million yuan in sales, contributing to a 60% year-on-year increase in cream product revenue [1]. - Revenue from frozen baking, cream, fruit products, sauces, and other baking raw materials in 2024 was 2.133 billion, 1.058 billion, 166 million, 225 million, and 226 million yuan respectively, with cream products showing a significant increase [1]. Channel Development - The company optimized its distributor system, achieving revenue of 2.222 billion yuan from distribution channels, a 12.75% increase year-on-year, with distributors accounting for approximately 57% of total revenue [2]. - The supermarket channel contributed nearly 25% of revenue, experiencing a slight decline due to periodic adjustments in product listings [2]. - Innovative channels such as catering, tea drinks, and new retail accounted for about 18% of revenue, with a combined year-on-year growth rate of approximately 20% [2]. Cost Management - The company demonstrated effective cost control, with a gross margin of 31.47% and a net margin of 6.99% for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase in net margin by 4.9 percentage points [3]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 29.99%, slightly down due to changes in channel and product structure, while the net margin increased to 8.45% [3]. Future Outlook - The company is committed to a big product strategy, aiming to enhance the revenue share of key baking products and expand its UHT cream production capacity [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.335 billion, 4.980 billion, and 5.712 billion yuan, with net profits of 335 million, 403 million, and 491 million yuan respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's resumption of shipments from Chinese suppliers, with U.S. customers bearing tariffs, highlights the performance of Chinese baking suppliers like Lihigh Foods, which has seen significant revenue growth over the past five years [1][3]. Company Performance - Lihigh Foods reported a revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, with a net profit of 256 million yuan, reflecting a 44.89% growth in net profit after excluding share-based payments [3][5]. - The company has achieved a doubling of revenue from 1.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 3.8 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. Product Segments - Lihigh Foods' two main product segments are frozen baked goods and baking ingredients. In 2024, the frozen baked goods segment generated 2.133 billion yuan, a decline of 3.53%, while baking ingredients saw a revenue increase of 32.74% to 1.675 billion yuan [4][6]. - The decline in frozen baked goods revenue is attributed to adjustments made by core supermarket clients in mid-2024 [8][9]. Market Trends - The frozen baking sector, referred to as "pre-made dishes in baking," has been experiencing high industry demand, contributing to Lihigh Foods' performance [1][2]. - The rise of membership-based supermarkets and quality retail models has fueled the growth of the baking sector, benefiting suppliers like Lihigh Foods [3]. Customer Dependency - Lihigh Foods has a significant dependency on Walmart, which has accounted for over 20% of its sales in recent years. In 2024, sales to its largest customer represented 22.91% of total revenue [11][12]. - The company is actively seeking to reduce this dependency by diversifying its product offerings and exploring new sales channels, including the restaurant sector [12]. Strategic Initiatives - To mitigate reliance on major clients, Lihigh Foods is expanding its product range, particularly in baking ingredients, with a notable increase in sales of its UHT cream products [12]. - The company is also focusing on developing its supply chain capabilities for the restaurant sector and other supermarkets outside its core clients [12].