Core Viewpoint - The leisure food sector experienced a slight increase of 0.02% on December 26, with Wancheng Group leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive movement [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up by 0.1% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up by 0.54% [1]. - Key stocks in the leisure food sector showed varied performance, with Wancheng Group closing at 202.40, up by 1.64% [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance Summary - Wancheng Group (300972) led the sector with a closing price of 202.40 and a gain of 1.64% [1]. - Other notable performers included Ximai Food (002956) at 27.08, up by 1.27%, and Laiyifen (603777) at 14.39, also up by 1.27% [1]. - Stocks such as Good Idea (002582) and Guilin Faxiang (002820) saw slight declines of 0.28% and 0.32%, respectively [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The leisure food sector saw a net outflow of 55.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 48.18 million yuan [2]. - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors showed interest [2]. Group 4: Individual Stock Capital Flow - Laiyifen (603777) experienced a significant net outflow of 42.53 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating a bearish sentiment [3]. - Wancheng Group (300972) had a net inflow of 2.78 million yuan from retail investors, suggesting some level of support from individual investors [3]. - Ximai Food (002956) saw a net inflow of 3.03 million yuan from institutional investors, reflecting positive interest [3].

Core Insights - The frozen baking industry is experiencing rapid growth and differentiation, with various players entering the market, leading to increased competition and potential market reshuffling due to rising cost pressures and price wars [4][5][26]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The frozen baking market in China is expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 25%, with projections indicating the market size will reach 23 billion yuan by 2025 [26]. - The industry is characterized by a mix of established players and new entrants, with significant competition emerging from both traditional baking companies and cross-industry players, particularly frozen food companies [24][25]. Group 2: Key Players - Leading companies such as Lihigh Foods and Nanjiao Foods have established strong positions in the frozen baking sector, with Lihigh's frozen baking segment accounting for approximately 55% of its revenue in the first three quarters of the year [8][10]. - Nanjiao Foods has seen its revenue from pre-baked products grow to 380 million yuan in 2024, with production capacity reaching 23,000 tons [10]. - Enxi Village, focusing on high-end frozen baking, has partnered with major retailers and reported a net income contribution of 288 million yuan to its parent company in the first three quarters of the year [12]. Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The market is witnessing a significant influx of frozen food companies entering the frozen baking space, leveraging their existing supply chains and distribution networks to gain a competitive edge [17][24]. - Companies like Anjixin and Qianwei Central Kitchen have made strategic acquisitions to enhance their product offerings in frozen baking, with Anjixin planning to invest in new baking projects to create a new growth curve [18][20]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Challenges - Despite revenue growth, companies are facing shrinking profit margins due to rising raw material costs and intense competition, as seen in Nanjiao Foods' net profit decline of 80.82% in the first three quarters [29]. - Qianwei Central Kitchen's baking segment has also experienced a decrease in gross margin, dropping to 20.93% in the first half of the year [29]. Group 5: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The frozen baking sector is increasingly facing challenges related to product homogeneity and price wars, necessitating continuous innovation and cost management to maintain market share [30]. - The industry's leading players must balance industrial efficiency with the artisanal quality of baked goods to meet consumer expectations for both convenience and flavor [30][31].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is experiencing systemic opportunities driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and increasing residents' income levels, which are expected to enhance consumption capabilities [1][2] - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with expectations of entering an EPS killing phase by 2025, while high-end liquor brands like Moutai and Lao Jiao are recommended for investment [1][4] - The dairy industry has completed supply-demand adjustments, with anticipated increases in demand for milk powder and liquid milk due to fertility and income policies, highlighting companies like Yili and New Dairy as potential recovery opportunities [1][5] - The snack food sector is benefiting from the "lipstick effect," new channels, and health trends, with recommendations for companies such as Salted Fish, Wei Long, Wan Chen Food, and Qiaqia Food [1][6] - The beverage sector is seeing a clear trend towards health, with non-traditional channels gaining market share, making high-growth companies like Dongpeng Beverage noteworthy [1][7] Key Insights and Arguments - The central economic work conference in 2026 will prioritize expanding domestic demand, which is expected to lead to a series of policies stimulating consumption, positively impacting the food and beverage industry [2] - The food and beverage sector has faced significant changes in volume, price, and channel structure over the past six years, with varying performances across sub-sectors [3] - The liquor sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026, driven by policies aimed at boosting business and government consumption [4] - The dairy sector is projected to enter a recovery phase, with increased demand anticipated due to supportive policies [5] - The snack food market is expected to gradually recover, supported by rising incomes and new retail channels [6] Additional Important Content - Cost fluctuations are a significant factor affecting the performance of consumer goods companies, with some agricultural product costs declining, providing investment opportunities [9] - The planting area for sunflower seeds is expected to recover, leading to a projected 10% decrease in the cost of sunflower seeds, which will positively impact Qiaqia Food's gross margin [10][11] - The konjac market is facing supply-demand imbalances, with high prices expected to ease in 2026, alleviating cost pressures for companies like Wei Long and Salted Fish [12] - The sugar molasses market is currently at low prices, providing strong support for Angel Yeast's profitability [13] - Innovative companies are leveraging product and channel innovations to drive growth, with notable examples including Nongfu Spring and Uni-President [14] - Efficient supply chain management is crucial for companies, with Dongpeng Beverage demonstrating strong performance in this area [15] Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2026 through strategic measures and product innovations [16] - Wan Chen is enhancing store quality and accelerating store openings, which is expected to improve profitability in the snack food sector [17][18] - Hai Tian Flavoring has implemented efficiency improvements under new management, resulting in revenue and profit growth exceeding industry averages [19] - The restaurant industry is expected to see a mild recovery, with companies like Yihai International and Tianhe Flavoring showing potential for improvement [20][21] - In the liquor sector, companies like Yanghe and Budweiser are expected to benefit from product and channel improvements, leading to potential breakthroughs in performance [22][23][25] - Gan Yuan Food is focusing on expanding e-commerce and high-end membership stores, with a stable development outlook [26][27] - Overall, companies in the food and beverage sector are expected to experience gradual recovery and growth, making them worthy of investor attention [28]

商务部于2024年8月21日发布公告，决定对欧盟进口相关乳制品(鲜乳酪及凝乳、经加工乳酪、稀奶油 等)进行反补贴立案调查，经过多轮磋商、抽样调查、实地核查等，初步认定原产于欧盟的进口相关乳 制品存在补贴，且使得国内相关乳制品产业受到实质损害。决定自2025年12月23日起对原产于欧盟的相 关乳制品采取临时反补贴税保证金，保证金金额以计税价格*临时反补贴税保证金比率确定。此前欧盟 进口相关品类关税税率多在8-15%之间，当前额外征收的反补贴保证金比例为21.9-42.7%区间，普遍接 近30%。 智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，商务部公布对欧盟进口相关乳制品反补贴调查初裁，12月23 日起对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴保证金措施。根据中国奶业贸易月报，2025年1-10 月欧盟在中国进口奶酪中占比14.5%、稀奶油中占比29.4%。当前对欧盟征收反补贴税保证金，有望推 动乳制品深加工业务向国内转移，且目前国内奶价已低于海外，有望加速国产替代。对于上游原奶产业 链，深加工有望提升原奶耗奶量，从需求端进一步推动供需格局改善。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 变相提升进口价格，国产替代有望提速 乳制品反补 ...

影响：深加工品类国产替代有望加速，利好原奶价格企稳回升 欧盟竞品让渡出稀奶油/奶酪潜在20/14亿市场空间，国产替代有望加速。过往我国乳品深加工产业受制 于原奶成本较高、技术不成熟等因素高度依赖进口，此次施加反补贴的相关品类2023年国内同类产品产 量占比仅14%-18%。根据海关总署数据，25年前11月稀奶油/相关奶酪进口金额分别为70/69亿元，其中 进口自欧盟的金额分别为20/14亿元，占比分别达24%/19%。此次反补贴政策显著抬升欧盟竞品成本， 国内厂商价格优势有望强化。其中稀奶油生产技术更为成熟，最有望从中获益。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 华创证券发布研报称，近日，商务部发布针对欧盟进口相关乳制品的反补贴政策，此次裁定针对各类奶 酪和高脂稀奶油，属乳制品深加工核心品类，且进口依赖度均较高。政策自发布次日起立即执行，彰显 了相关部门稳定市场方面的决心，影响有望快速传导至市场。此次反补贴政策显著抬升欧盟竞品成本， 国内厂商价格优势有望强化。其中稀奶油生产技术更为成熟，最有望从中获益。深加工项目投产拉动原 奶消耗，结合存栏去化趋势持续，26年下半年原奶周期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU dairy imports, which is expected to accelerate domestic product substitution and stabilize raw milk prices. The policy will impose temporary countervailing measures on EU dairy products starting December 23, 2025, with subsidy rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [2][8]. - The policy targets high-fat dairy products, particularly cheese and cream, which have a high dependency on imports. This is expected to significantly increase the cost of EU products, thereby enhancing the price advantage for domestic manufacturers [8]. - The domestic dairy processing industry has historically relied on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology. The report estimates that the domestic production of similar products accounted for only 14%-18% in 2023, indicating a substantial market opportunity for local producers [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 46,266.30 billion and a circulating market value of 45,144.74 billion [5]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -2.1%, with a 6-month performance of 2.7% and a 12-month performance of -4.9%. Relative performance shows a decline of -5.9% over one month, -17.1% over six months, and -22.4% over twelve months [6]. Policy Impact - The countervailing measures are expected to create a market space of approximately 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese, accelerating domestic substitution. The report highlights that the production capacity of deep processing projects is expected to consume over 400 million tons of raw milk, potentially leading to a reversal in the raw milk cycle by the second half of 2026 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment opportunities: - Domestic substitutes that will directly benefit from the policy, with a focus on companies like Lihigh and Miaoke, which are positioned to capture high-end market segments [8]. - Dairy farms such as Youran and Modern Dairy, which are expected to benefit from a reversal in raw milk prices [8]. - Leading dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu, which are anticipated to strengthen their competitive edge through accelerated deep processing business and improved operational stability [8].

乳业板块高开，立高食品高开超8%，骑士乳业、皇氏集团、庄园牧场、妙可蓝多跟涨。消息面上，商 务部对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。 ...

立高食品股份有限公司 董事会 2025 年 12 月 22 日 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 立高食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 12 月 24 日召开第三届董事 会第十二次会议和第三届监事会第八次会议，审议通过了《关于使用部分闲置募集资金 暂时补充流动资金的议案》，同意公司在保证募集资金投资项目建设正常推进的前提下， 使用不超过 250,000,000.00 元（其中首发募集资金不超过 50,000,000.00 元，可转债募集 资金不超过 200,000,000.00 元）闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金，使用期限自董事会审议 通过之日起不超过 12 个月。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 12 月 26 日在巨潮资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于使用部分闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金的公 告》（公告编号：2024-104）。 截至本公告披露日，公司已将实际用于暂时补充流动资金的 250,000,000.00 元（其中 首发募集资金 50,000,000.00 元，可转债募集资金 20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Lihigh Food has experienced a significant stock price increase, rising 5.12% to 41.48 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.024 billion CNY [1] - Lihigh Food's stock has seen a cumulative increase of 5.09% over the past five days, indicating strong market performance [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of baking food ingredients and frozen baked goods, with its main revenue sources being frozen baked goods (54.35%), cream (26.94%), and sauces (6.85%) [1] Group 2 - According to data, the fund "Jiaoyin Anxiang Stable Pension One Year A" holds Lihigh Food as its fourth-largest position, with 47,900 shares, representing 0.09% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 96,800 CNY today, with a total floating profit of 91,500 CNY during the five-day stock increase [2] - The fund has a total scale of 2.13 billion CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 5.32%, ranking 793 out of 1,037 in its category [2]

Core Insights - The frozen baking industry is experiencing rapid growth and differentiation, with various players entering the market, leading to increased competition and potential market reshuffling due to rising cost pressures and price wars [1][19]. Company Strategies - Leading companies like Lihigh Foods and Nanjiao Foods have established strong positions in the frozen baking sector by focusing on product quality, channel strength, and capital investment [2][5]. - Lihigh Foods has expanded its business into frozen baking through acquisitions, with its frozen baking segment accounting for approximately 55% of its revenue in the first three quarters of the year [4][5]. - Nanjiao Foods has shifted its focus to pre-baked products, with its pre-baked product revenue reaching 380 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a strategic emphasis on this segment [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The frozen baking market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 25%, potentially reaching a market size of 23 billion yuan by 2025 [19]. - Despite market growth, companies are facing shrinking profit margins due to rising raw material costs and intense competition, leading to significant profit declines for some players [20][21]. Competitive Landscape - New entrants, particularly from the frozen food sector, are leveraging their existing supply chains and distribution networks to penetrate the frozen baking market, creating a competitive environment [11][17]. - Companies like Anjiyuan and Qianwei Central Kitchen have made significant investments in frozen baking, with Qianwei's baking segment revenue growing from 188 million yuan in 2020 to 355 million yuan in 2023 [13][14]. Challenges Ahead - The industry is facing challenges such as product homogenization and fierce competition for premium retail channels, which may hinder future growth for existing players [21][22]. - Companies must balance industrial efficiency with the artisanal quality of baked goods to meet consumer expectations, as flavor and quality remain critical factors for customer purchasing decisions [21].