| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600228 | *ST返利 | 4.16 | -3.70% | 7.31万 | | 3084.12万 | | 002095 | 生意宝 | 20.67 | -3.23% | 14.24万 | | 2.96 Z | | 300295 | 三六五网 | 15.21 | -2.62% | 0 8.03万 | | 1.23亿 | | 301299 | 卓创资讯 | 65.32 | -2.48% | 2.52万 | | 1.66亿 | | 603466 | 风语筑 | 10.73 | -0.83% | 24.32万 | | 2.62亿 | | 300785 | 值得买 | 33.94 | -0.82% | 6.07万 | | 2.05亿 | | 300413 | 芒果超媒 | 22.46 | -0.18% | 21.11万 | | 4.76亿 | | 603888 | 新华网 | 19.14 | -0.10% | 9.27万 | | 1.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing a price hike of 30 yuan/ton for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper starting August 1, driven by rising raw material costs and tightening supply [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - July has seen the fourth round of price increases in the paper industry, with a consistent rise in various types of raw paper prices, each time by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 21, the market price for waste yellow board paper reached 1475 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to June 30 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in waste yellow board paper prices is attributed to overall limited supply and heavy rainfall affecting local waste paper trading, leading to a decrease in market supply [2]. - Major paper companies have been steadily raising their procurement prices for waste yellow board paper, which has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the waste paper market and provided cost support for finished paper price increases [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, the corrugated and box board paper markets continued to experience a supply-demand imbalance, with average prices declining: corrugated paper at 2682 yuan/ton (down 2.44% year-on-year) and box board paper at 3616 yuan/ton (down 3.42% year-on-year) [3]. - The gross profit margins for the corrugated paper industry and box board paper industry were 9.97% and 18.96%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The overall profitability of the industry remains under pressure due to the supply exceeding demand, with expectations of a price recovery in the second half of the year, although it may not fully offset the declines seen in the first half [3].

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease due to fluctuations in international oil prices and domestic supply-demand dynamics [2][3] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The retail price of gasoline and diesel is predicted to be lowered by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively, translating to a decrease of 0.10 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.11 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.11 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2] - After this adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will drop to approximately 7.23 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will decrease to around 7.75 yuan per liter [3] Group 2: Year-to-Date Adjustments - Following this price change, the year-to-date adjustments for refined oil will reflect a pattern of "6 increases, 6 decreases, and 2 stasis," with cumulative reductions of 225 yuan per ton for gasoline and 215 yuan per ton for diesel [3] Group 3: Cost Savings for Consumers - For a household car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will save approximately 5 yuan, while a small private car running 2,000 kilometers monthly will see a reduction of about 7 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] - A heavy-duty truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly will experience a decrease of around 195 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts indicate that while OPEC+ is likely to maintain significant production increases in August and September, potential supply risks may arise from new U.S. sanctions on Russia [4] - The traditional peak season for fuel demand in the U.S. continues, supporting the market, although there are uncertainties regarding the next price adjustment due to fluctuating oil prices [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, specifically focusing on Real World Assets (RWA) [4] Core Insights - RWA represents a transformative innovation in financial technology by converting real-world assets into digital assets on the blockchain, potentially leading to exponential growth in the sector [2][6] - The global RWA asset market reached $24.5 billion as of June 2025, with projections to exceed $16 trillion by 2030, indicating a significant opportunity for investment [6][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory frameworks being established globally to support the growth of RWA, with regions like Hong Kong and the EU leading the way [26][30] Summary by Sections RWA: Connecting Real World Assets to Blockchain - RWA involves the tokenization of tangible and intangible assets through blockchain technology, enhancing liquidity and reducing transaction costs [11][12] - The RWA market is rapidly expanding, with a diverse range of assets including real estate, bonds, and commodities being tokenized [15][16] RWA Issuance Process and Regulatory Framework - The RWA issuance process consists of five key steps: asset selection, legal and compliance framework establishment, technology implementation, token issuance, and ongoing management [21][23] - Various countries are developing regulatory frameworks for RWA, with Hong Kong adopting a sandbox approach to foster innovation while ensuring compliance [26][30] Expansion of Asset Classes and RWA Market - RWA assets can be categorized into cash flow, equity, and non-cash flow assets, with credit and bonds currently leading the market [35][36] - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the RWA sector, particularly in tokenized real estate and securities, which are becoming increasingly popular [46][53] RWA Industry Ecosystem - The RWA ecosystem is forming a collaborative industry chain involving asset providers, technology firms, platforms, compliance custodians, and investors [4][6] - Key players in the blockchain and fintech sectors are recommended for investment, including companies like 恒生电子 and 新国都 [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The national average price of rice in China is experiencing fluctuations, with a notable increase in the second quarter of 2025, while the overall supply and demand dynamics suggest a potential decline in prices in the third quarter [1][8]. Price Trends - As of the end of June 2025, the national average price of rice reached 4,075 yuan per ton, marking a 2% increase from early April, but a 2.38% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - The average price for the second quarter of 2025 was 4,031.51 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.35% increase from the first quarter, yet a 3.44% decrease year-on-year [1]. Supply Dynamics - By the end of June, the grain sales progress in major production areas reached approximately 98%, an increase of 7 percentage points since March [3]. - In southern production areas, the remaining rice stocks have dropped to 7% or less, while northeastern areas still have 10%-15% remaining [3]. - The limited supply of rice at the grassroots level is causing difficulties for rice mills in sourcing raw materials, leading to price increases [3]. Mill Operations and Demand - The average operating rate of rice mills in the second quarter increased from 14% to 17%, a 3 percentage point rise, with an average of 16% for the quarter, which is a 1 percentage point increase from the first quarter but a 3 percentage point decrease from the previous year [5]. - Demand for rice is expected to influence prices positively, with increased orders during the Dragon Boat Festival and mid-year promotions leading to a rise in mill operations [5]. Future Price Expectations - In the third quarter, rice prices are anticipated to rise initially before experiencing a decline, with overall supply expected to be more relaxed [7]. - The demand for rice is projected to decrease in July due to seasonal factors, but may increase in August as schools reopen and festivals approach [7]. - The average price of rice is expected to stabilize in July, with a potential slight decrease, while August may see a temporary boost in demand before a more significant decline in September as new rice enters the market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices in the North China market have shifted from rising to falling since July 4, primarily due to increased supply from traders and stable demand, leading to a slight decrease in prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 4, the average corn price in North China was 2427.85 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [1]. - The price drop is attributed to enhanced shipment activities by traders, resulting in a temporary increase in corn supply [1][3]. Group 2: Trader Behavior - Traders have been actively selling corn to lock in profits, with reported outflow profits around 300 yuan/ton as of late June and early July [3]. - Concerns over increased auction volumes of imported corn have led traders to anticipate limited price increases, prompting them to boost their selling activities [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The onset of the rainy season and the introduction of imported genetically modified corn have diversified the factors affecting the corn market [4]. - The auction of imported corn is expected to influence market sentiment and supply dynamics, potentially limiting price increases [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, corn prices in North China are expected to remain weak due to increased supply, but may strengthen later in July as concentrated shipments decrease [5]. - The overall supply-demand relationship in the corn market is relatively loose, with expectations of price adjustments depending on auction volumes and transaction conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to increase due to fluctuating international crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with specific price adjustments set for July 1 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 30, the reference crude oil price change rate was 5.41%, leading to an expected increase of 235 yuan per ton for gasoline and 225 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel respectively [2]. - After the upcoming price adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will rise from 7.14 yuan per liter to approximately 7.32 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will increase from 7.66 yuan per liter to around 7.85 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan. For a small private car running 2,000 kilometers per month with an 8L/100km fuel consumption, the total fuel cost will increase by about 13 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will see an increase in fuel costs of approximately 337 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, primarily influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with a focus on US-Iran negotiations. However, unless a significant conflict arises, oil prices are unlikely to return to previous highs [3]. - Following a decrease in geopolitical risks, oil prices have returned to levels prior to the conflicts, but summer demand in the US is expected to provide support for prices, indicating that international oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the upcoming period [3]. Group 4: Future Price Adjustment Schedule - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open on July 15, 2025, at 24:00 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market has experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year due to trade tensions and supply-demand dynamics, with domestic cotton prices gradually recovering after hitting a near six-year low [1][2] Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - Cotton prices fell to 13,527 yuan/ton on April 9, down 992 yuan/ton from the high point earlier in the year, but began to recover following easing trade tensions from the China-U.S. Geneva economic talks in May [1][2] - The average price of China's 3128B grade cotton is expected to reach 14,417 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, an increase of 317 yuan/ton compared to the first half [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has raised concerns about the stability of the global cotton textile industry, leading to a significant increase in import cotton costs and a shift towards Brazilian cotton, which accounted for 45% of imports in the first half of 2024 [2] - By 2025, the proportion of U.S. cotton imports is expected to drop to 20%, while Brazilian cotton's share may rise to 57% [2] Group 3: Industry Restructuring and Innovation - The cotton textile industry is focusing on "new quality productivity" to reshape competitive advantages through supply chain resilience [4] - Xinjiang is actively promoting the development of the cotton and textile industry chain, aiming to enhance the local conversion rate of cotton and build industry clusters [4] - Companies are leveraging technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance production resilience, with initiatives like smart factories and AI-driven optimization [4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Strategy - Despite low revenue and profit levels in the cotton textile industry expected in the first half of 2025, structural adjustments such as capacity expansion and digital transformation are showing initial results [5] - The industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development to address external uncertainties, emphasizing technological innovation and supply chain enhancement [5]

Core Viewpoint - Since June, international oil prices have been on the rise, with WTI crude oil futures settling at $71.77 per barrel and Brent crude at $73.23 per barrel, significantly up from around $60 per barrel at the beginning of the month [1] Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The domestic fuel price adjustment window opened on June 17, with expectations of consecutive price increases due to rising international oil prices [2] - Analysts predict that gasoline and diesel retail prices will increase by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to price increases of 0.20 yuan for 92 gasoline and 0.22 yuan for 0 diesel [2][3] - The increase in fuel prices will raise costs for consumers, with an estimated additional cost of 10 yuan for filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline and an increase of approximately 15 yuan for a small car running 2000 km per month [4] Group 2: Future Price Trends - The next price adjustment window is expected to open on July 1, 2025, with predictions of significant price increases based on current international oil prices [5] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving demand may continue to support high international oil prices, leading to a high likelihood of domestic fuel price increases in the next cycle [5] - The overall outlook indicates that the domestic fuel market will experience upward pressure on prices due to reduced supply from lower refinery operating rates and stable gasoline demand [5]

Core Insights - In 2024, China's UCO (Used Cooking Oil) export volume reached a record high of 2,950.79 thousand tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.44% compared to 2023 [3] - The United States emerged as the largest destination for UCO exports from China, accounting for 42.94% of total exports, with a significant year-on-year growth of 51.9% [3] - The cancellation of UCO export tax rebates starting December 1, 2024, led to a sharp decline in export volumes, indicating the impact of policy changes on export decisions [3][7] Export Trends - The total UCO export volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2,124.54 thousand tons, reflecting a 54.63% increase year-on-year [3] - November 2024 saw a peak in UCO exports at 434.05 thousand tons, breaking previous records before the tax rebate cancellation [3] - The top six destinations for UCO exports in 2024 were the United States, Singapore, the Netherlands, Spain, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] Market Dynamics - Following the U.S. tariff policy changes, Chinese UCO exporters shifted focus to other markets, particularly Europe and Southeast Asia, with exports to the Netherlands and Spain increasing significantly [6] - From January to April 2025, UCO exports to the Netherlands and Spain totaled 237.11 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 63.11% [6] - The U.S. market saw a decline in UCO exports from China, with a drop of 34.04% year-on-year in early 2025 [7] Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic waste oil market is experiencing low trading sentiment, with a 20% decrease in waste oil collection compared to the previous year [7] - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has led to increased pressure on domestic UCO enterprises, resulting in profit margins being compressed to a range of 50-100 yuan per ton [7] - The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic waste oil market has cooled significantly compared to 2024, with businesses adopting a cautious approach to avoid potential losses [7]