Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand leading to a decline in oil prices, geopolitical risks persist and market fears of future resource supply reductions have caused international oil prices to rise intermittently [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The change rate of crude oil shifted from negative to positive, reaching 0.59% as of September 19, indicating a potential adjustment in oil pricing [1] - An expected increase of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices is anticipated, with the adjustment window set for September 9 at 24:00 [1] Group 2: Retail Price Adjustments - Current calculations suggest that the final retail price adjustment for refined oil may not reach the necessary condition of a 50 yuan per ton increase, indicating a possible stalling of this round of retail price adjustments [1]

（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 格隆汇9月22日｜卓创资讯：本计价周期以来(2025年9月9日24时至2025年9月23日24时)，国际原油价格 呈偏强区间波动，受此影响，国内参考的原油变化率由负转正但低位运行，第9个工作日计算后的调整 幅度在25元/吨，未达国家发改委50元/吨的调价红线。距离调价窗口还有一个工作日，卓创资讯预计明 日(9月23日)24时，国内成品油调价搁浅概率较大。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation within a range during the pricing cycle from September 9, 2025, to September 23, 2025 [1] - As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive but remains at a low level, with an adjustment magnitude of 25 yuan/ton calculated on the 9th working day [1] - The adjustment amount has not reached the National Development and Reform Commission's price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton, indicating a potential for no price change [1] Group 2 - There is one working day left until the price adjustment window, and according to Zhaochuang Information, the probability of domestic refined oil price adjustment being shelved is relatively high as of September 23, 2025, at 24:00 [1]

Market Overview - On September 19, the digital media sector rose by 1.07%, led by Zhidingmai, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] Stock Performance - Zhidingmai (300785) closed at 41.60 with a gain of 4.52%, trading volume of 209,900 shares and a turnover of 880 million yuan [1] - Mango Super Media (300413) closed at 33.01, up 4.00%, with a trading volume of 307,600 shares and a turnover of 1.016 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Chuanwang Media (300987) at 18.56 (+2.26%), Xinhua Net (603888) at 19.79 (+0.35%), and People's Daily (603000) at 68.61 (+0.15%) [1] Capital Flow - The digital media sector experienced a net outflow of 76.9435 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 92.1514 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Mango Super Media saw a net inflow of 93.2077 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 77.3054 million yuan [3] - Chuanwang Media had a net inflow of 12.8304 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also experiencing a net outflow [3] - Zhidingmai faced a net outflow of 8.3551 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.13767 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the EU anti-dumping measures on the prices of imported pork products in China, highlighting significant price increases for imported ribs, heads, and feet, while domestic pork prices remain low due to oversupply and weak demand [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In early September 2025, the price of imported ribs surged, with a maximum daily increase of 4000 yuan per ton due to the EU's anti-dumping ruling [1] - Domestic fresh and frozen pork prices are at record lows, with oversupply in the market leading to a decline in prices [1] - As of September 16, 2025, domestic pork prices are expected to remain low, with a potential slight rebound towards the end of the month due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic pork supply is currently abundant, with demand weakening after the back-to-school and Zhongyuan Festival stocking periods [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a slight increase in domestic fresh pork prices due to the seasonal demand and an increase in suitable weight pig sources [1] - Import volumes for pork and by-products are expected to remain high, with a reported 626,400 tons of pork imported from January to July 2025, a 4.11% increase compared to the same period last year [1]

Market Performance - The digital media sector increased by 0.9% on September 16, with Shengyibao leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shengyibao (002095) closed at 21.20, up 3.21% with a trading volume of 104,400 shares and a turnover of 220 million yuan [1] - Zhidema (300785) closed at 41.83, up 2.57% with a trading volume of 133,400 shares [1] - Visual China (000681) closed at 21.27, up 2.41% with a trading volume of 372,300 shares and a turnover of 783 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Fengyuzhu (603466) at 10.02, up 1.73%, and Zhangyue Technology (603533) at 20.22, up 1.46% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The digital media sector saw a net inflow of 88.94 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 78.77 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Visual China with 65.01 million yuan, while Zhidema had a net inflow of 25.55 million yuan [3] - Conversely, *ST Fanli (600228) and Chuanwang Media (300987) experienced net outflows of 2.53 million yuan and 0.21 million yuan respectively [3]

Market Overview - On September 12, the digital media sector experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, with Mango Excellent Media leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the digital media sector included: - Zhi De Mai (300785) with a closing price of 40.39, up 5.02% [1] - ST Fan Li (600228) with a closing price of 4.92, up 3.80% [1] - Xinhua Net (603888) with a closing price of 20.43, up 1.59% [1] - Conversely, Mango Excellent Media (300413) saw a decline of 2.19%, closing at 29.42 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The digital media sector saw a net inflow of 27.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 72.87 million yuan [2] - However, there was a significant net outflow of 99.87 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks and their capital flow included: - People's Daily (603000) had a net inflow of 39.58 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 25.56 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Xinhua Net (603888) experienced a net inflow of 14.11 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - ST Fan Li (600228) had a net inflow of 13.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase in 2025, leading to a significant rise in total cotton production, despite cautious purchasing attitudes from ginning enterprises due to macroeconomic fluctuations and tariff issues [1][2][5]. Group 1: Cotton Production and Growth - In 2025, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is projected to increase by 8.68% year-on-year, primarily due to poor earnings from other crops in 2024 and the stability of cotton subsidies [2]. - The overall weather conditions in Xinjiang have been favorable, resulting in improved yield expectations, with a preliminary estimate of total cotton production reaching 7.1 million tons in 2024, an increase of approximately 11.29% year-on-year [2]. - The harvesting time for cotton in both northern and southern Xinjiang is expected to be 7-10 days earlier than last year, with some areas starting to harvest by September 20 [4][10]. Group 2: Market Pricing and Expectations - The expected opening price for cotton in Xinjiang for 2025 is projected to be between 6.1-6.5 yuan per kilogram, with a significant portion of market participants anticipating this range [5][10]. - A comparison of survey results from July and August indicates a shift in market sentiment, with participants now expecting lower opening prices due to tariff pressures and increased production expectations [7]. - The survey revealed that 33% of participants expect the opening price to be in the 6.1-6.5 yuan range, while 21% remain uncertain, and smaller percentages expect prices of 5.6-6.0 yuan and 6.6-7.0 yuan [5]. Group 3: Ginning Enterprises and Cost Management - Ginning enterprises are adopting a cautious approach due to poor profitability over the past three years, leading to a decline in rental fees for production lines [8]. - To mitigate potential losses, some ginning enterprises are pre-selling cotton in a basis spot format to lock in profits, while trade companies are also securing pre-purchases to capitalize on limited resources [8]. - The estimated production cost for cotton in 2025 is projected to be between 13,900-15,100 yuan per ton, which is relatively stable compared to previous years, although the opening price for cotton seeds is expected to be slightly higher than last year [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released the palm oil supply and demand data for August 2025, indicating that production and inventory levels are in line with market expectations, leading to a neutral to slightly bearish impact on the market [1][2]. Production and Supply - In August, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.855 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35%, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.05% [2][4]. - The production in different regions showed variability: Peninsular Malaysia's production decreased by 1.82% to 1.107 million tons, while Sabah and Sarawak saw increases of 3.98% and 14.56%, respectively [4][6]. - The average yield of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) increased by 6.54% to 1.63 tons per hectare, with regional yields varying significantly [6]. Exports and Imports - Palm oil exports in August were 1.3247 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.29% month-on-month and a significant year-on-year drop of 13.14% [2][8]. - Imports fell sharply by 19.66% to 49,000 tons, while domestic consumption rose to approximately 491,000 tons, marking a 6.16% increase and the highest level in nearly three years [10][12]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of August, palm oil inventory rose to 2.2025 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.18% and a year-on-year increase of 16.96%, indicating a high level compared to the past five years [2][12]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to continued inventory accumulation and weak export performance, with palm oil prices likely to fluctuate between 9,200 and 9,650 yuan per ton [14]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, there are potential bullish drivers, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supportive external vegetable oil market conditions [14].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 171 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.75% [2] - The gross profit margin for the company stood at 64.35% in the same period [2]