国家发展改革委价格监测中心预计，在全球油市供应过剩的背景下，地缘政治局势是影响国际油价震荡 运行的主要因素。短期来看，局部地缘政治仍是关注焦点。 后期来看，卓创资讯成品油分析师孟鹏预计，地缘风险依旧存在诸多不确定性，将持续对国际原油形成 扰动，但与此同时，宏观压力与产业过剩压制国际油价上行动能，原油市场多空博弈加剧，国际油价或 难走出单边行情，整体将保持宽幅波动走势。 从本轮调价周期来看，受地缘政治局势变化影响，国际油价在连续多日快速上涨后出现回落，总体水平 较上一轮调价周期上涨。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心告诉《证券日报》记者，调价期初，受局部地区局势动荡影响，地缘政治 风险溢价有所上升，推动了国际油价的上涨。此后，随着市场对供应中断的忧虑有所缓解，国际油价相 应回调。以布伦特原油期货价格为例，其价格从期初约每桶60美元最高升至67美元，目前，回落至64美 元附近。 国内成品油零售价迎来年内首次上调。1月20日，国家发展改革委发布消息称，近期国际市场油价波动 上升，根据1月20日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成 品油价格机制，自1月20日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格 ...

21世纪经济报道记者费心懿实习生吴慧敏 今晚24时，成品油零售限价将迎来2026年度首次上调。 1月20日，国家发改委发布消息，自24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格分别上调85/吨，折升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油均上调0.07元。 此次上调为2026年国内成品油零售限价首次上调，同时兑现了本周期内原油变化率由负转正、触发上调条件的市场预判。本次上调落实后，消 费者自驾出行及物流运输的用油成本将略有增加。 按当前调整幅度计算，本轮调价落实后，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油将比之前多花3.5元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8 升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口(2月3日24时)开启前的半个月内，消费者用油成本将增加5元。物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油 耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加124元左右。 卓创资讯（301299）成品油分析师高青翠认为，本计价周期(2026年1月6日24时至1月20日24时)，中东、南美局势引发的地缘风险与供应担 忧，对油市形成利好支撑，支撑原油价格连续五日上涨，累计涨逾10%；但随着美国释放缓和信号，地缘风险迅速降温，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase for the first time in 2026, with an adjustment window opening on January 20, 2023, due to international crude oil price fluctuations indicating a rise above the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil has seen international crude oil prices initially rise and then fall, but the average price has increased compared to the previous cycle, with a reference crude oil change rate of 2.01% as of January 16, 2023, suggesting a potential retail price increase of 85 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the retail price for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel may rise by approximately 0.07 yuan per liter if the adjustment is implemented [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Recent data indicates that the wholesale prices for both gasoline and diesel have been declining, with 92 gasoline averaging 7279 yuan/ton (down 0.19%) and diesel at 5994 yuan/ton (down 1.54%) as of January 16, 2023 [4]. - The supply side shows an increase in gasoline production while diesel supply is decreasing, leading to a divergence in market trends, with gasoline demand expectations improving but facing inventory accumulation, while diesel demand is weakening due to seasonal factors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence short-term international crude oil prices, with OPEC+ halting production increases, suggesting ongoing support for oil market supply [4]. - Geopolitical factors remain a primary driver for the international oil market, but their impact is considered short-term and may not alter the overall downward trend in oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent cold weather and snowfall in northern regions have disrupted the transportation of live pigs, leading to increased purchasing difficulties for downstream slaughter enterprises and a subsequent rise in pig prices [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The price of live pigs has increased due to transportation challenges caused by adverse weather conditions in northern regions [1] - The bullish market sentiment, driven by rising prices in the north, has also initiated an upward trend in pig prices in southern regions [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term price increase due to weather impacts, it is anticipated that as road conditions improve and transportation normalizes, pig prices may experience a high-level correction [1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, live pig prices are expected to rise initially and then decline over the next week [1]

Market Overview - The digital media sector experienced a decline of 7.09% on January 16, with Chuanwang Media leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Chuanwang Media (300987) closed at 21.51, down 11.99% with a trading volume of 292,700 shares and a transaction value of 656 million [1] - Xinhua Net (603888) closed at 26.25, down 10.01% with a trading volume of 55,500 shares and a transaction value of 146 million [1] - Visual China (000681) closed at 31.60, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 148,400 shares and a transaction value of 469 million [1] - People's Daily (603000) closed at 27.75, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 65,500 shares and a transaction value of 182 million [1] - Other notable declines include Zhidema (300785) down 6.33%, Guomai Culture (600640) down 5.00%, and Mango Super Media (300413) down 4.46% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The digital media sector saw a net outflow of 621 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 492 million [1] - The table indicates that major stocks like Xinhua Net and People's Daily experienced significant net outflows from institutional investors, with Xinhua Net seeing a net outflow of 14.65 million [2] - Retail investors showed a preference for stocks like People's Daily, which had a net inflow of 35.02 million from retail investors [2]

近期生铁市场价格稳中趋强运行。截至1月16日，中国炼钢生铁日度均价在2687.73元/吨，较上周同期 上涨0.24%。供应压力不大，个别焦企试探提涨，焦炭价格暂稳，市场情绪回暖。但下游即将进入放假 阶段，需求难言乐观。短期生铁市场或主稳个调。(卓创资讯) ...

Group 1 - The digital media sector saw a slight increase of 0.33% on January 15, with Visual China leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] - Visual China and People's Daily both experienced a significant rise of 9.99% in their stock prices [1] Group 2 - The digital media sector experienced a net outflow of 128 million yuan from institutional investors and 277 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 405 million yuan [2] - The stock performance of various companies in the digital media sector showed mixed results, with some companies like Worth Buying and Sichuan Media experiencing declines of 20% and 8.64% respectively [2] - The net inflow and outflow of funds varied significantly among companies, with Visual China having a net inflow of 61 million yuan from institutional investors, while others like ST Rebate and Mango Super Media faced substantial outflows [3]

1月中旬，焦煤现货市场补库需求增加，价格偏强上涨，焦炭成本端支撑增强，市场投机需求增加，价 格止跌企稳运行。截至1月14日，山西准一干熄焦主流成交均价1500元/吨，较上周价格持平。1月份以 来高炉复产情况较多，铁水产量有小幅回升，焦炭刚需增加，但短期焦煤价格涨幅有限，焦化厂开工稳 定，而钢厂焦炭库存充足，焦炭供需宽松局面暂无实质扭转，预计短期内焦炭价格暂稳运行。(卓创资 讯) ...

Group 1 - The corrugated and boxboard paper market continues to experience a downward price trend, with large paper mills maintaining price protection policies while smaller mills are offering discounts due to inventory pressure [1] - Although there has been an increase in orders from downstream packaging factories ahead of the Spring Festival, there remains a cautious sentiment, leading to a focus on demand-based procurement [1] - The prices of major raw materials, particularly waste paper, have stabilized, providing some support to paper prices from the cost side [1] Group 2 - Despite the significant inventory pressure faced by upstream paper mills, the combination of increased orders before the holiday and cost support is expected to narrow the price decline in the corrugated and boxboard paper market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical market in China is expected to experience a "weak adjustment and structural differentiation" in Q4 2025 due to falling crude oil prices and capacity release, with most product prices declining year-on-year [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - In Q1 2026, the petrochemical industry may see improvements in supply-demand dynamics and policy benefits, as new capacity enters a lull period and pre-holiday stocking demand increases [1] - Domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand will continue to be reinforced, contributing to a recovery in terminal demand in sectors such as new energy and infrastructure [1] Group 2: Structural Trends - The market is expected to stop declining and operate strongly, with a continued structural trend of "aromatics being strong and olefins being slightly weak" [1] - Cost support and demand differentiation will jointly drive structural opportunities within the industry [1]