[Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 26年险资配置调查结果出炉，增配权益而久期策略不变 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]刘淇 SAC 执证号：S0260520060001 0755-82564292 liuqi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 唐关勇 SAC 执证号：S0260525070004 021-38003812 tangguanyong@gf.com.cn 请注意，刘淇,唐关勇并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 24% 10/24 01/25 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 保险Ⅱ行业 ...

作为资本市场最重要的中长期资金之一，保险资金的配置动向不仅折射出行业自身的转型成效，更 关乎实体经济高质量发展与资本市场稳定运行。 近日，金融监管总局披露的数据显示，截至2025年末，保险公司资金运用余额近38.5万亿元，较当 年初增长15.7%，全年净增超5万亿元。多家券商研报分析称，2025年，险资运用余额增速创下2021年 以来峰值，资产配置结构持续优化，债券压舱石地位稳固，权益类资产配置规模与占比双创新高。预计 2026年保险资金运用余额将延续两位数以上的增长，股票投资规模增量有望维持在万亿元级别。 规模扩容 全年增速达15.7% 权益类资产配置是2025年险资配置最大亮点。数据显示，2025年末，保险行业"股票+基金"合计余 额达5.7万亿元，较当年初大幅增加1.6万亿元。其中，股票资产余额3.73万亿元，全年净增加1.31万亿 元；基金资产余额1.97万亿元，全年净增加2899亿元。从占比来看，"股票+基金"合计占比达15.4%，较 当年初提升2.6个百分点。其中，股票资产占比达10.1%，提升2.5个百分点，连续6个季度环比改善。 2025年，保险行业资金运用规模实现快速扩容，增速创下近四年来最 ...

行 业 报 告 险资配置跟踪系列（一） 2025 年核心权益资产增配显著 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 非银行金融 相关研究报告 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2025/02/24 2025/07/24 2025/12/24 非银金融 沪深300 【平安证券】行业年度策略报告-非银行金融-保险行 业 2026 年度策略：攻守兼备，乘势而上-强于大市 20251212 证券分析师 | 李冰婷 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040002 | | | LIBINGTING419@pingan.com.cn | | 许 淼 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525020001 | | | XUMIAO533@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 2026 年 02 月 25 日 保险资金运用余额保持较快增长，债券增配节奏趋缓。截至 25Q4 末，保 险行业资金运用余额达 38.5 万亿元（YoY+15.7%），人身险和财产险公司 保险资金运用余额 37.1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see a double-digit growth in asset scale by 2025, with a significant increase in equity allocation compared to the previous year [7] - The investment assets of insurance companies reached 38.5 trillion CNY by the end of Q4 2025, marking a 15.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with life insurance and property insurance companies holding 34.7 trillion CNY and 2.4 trillion CNY respectively [7] - The proportion of equity assets in insurance funds has notably increased, with stocks and funds accounting for 23% of total investments by Q4 2025, indicating room for further enhancement in equity allocation [7] Summary by Sections Investment Scale and Allocation - By the end of Q4 2025, the investment balance of insurance companies reached 38.5 trillion CNY, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, with life insurance companies accounting for 90.1% of the total [7] - The bond allocation remained stable, while the proportion of stocks and funds increased significantly, with life and property insurance companies showing respective stock and fund allocations of 15.3% and 17.1% by Q4 2025 [7] Market Performance and Trends - The insurance sector's investment assets have shown continuous double-digit growth, driven by strong demand on the liability side and an upward trend in the equity market [7] - The overall solvency ratio of the insurance industry was 181% by Q4 2025, indicating a healthy capital position and potential for increased equity investments [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the insurance sector, particularly on stocks such as China Ping An, China Life, China Taiping, and AIA Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved equity elasticity and favorable market conditions [7]

Investment Rating - Steel industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] - Non-ferrous industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in the steel and aluminum sectors, driven by three main factors: the inclusion of market value management in assessments, significant insurance capital entering the market, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the steel and aluminum industries [3][5][29]. Summary by Sections Dividend Potential Analysis - The report identifies that only 8 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors currently have dividend yields above 3%, with notable companies including Youfa Group (6.90%), Ordos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2][22]. - A total of 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, which includes having a high ratio of undistributed profits to total market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt ratio below 60% [4][32]. Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - The inclusion of market value management in the assessment of central enterprises is expected to accelerate the realization of dividend potential, as it encourages companies to enhance their market performance and return value to investors through increased cash dividends [3][25]. - The influx of insurance capital into the market is pushing for a revaluation of dividend-paying assets, as high dividend strategies become a core choice for insurance companies seeking stable returns [3][27]. - Capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries are anticipated to decline as the steel industry's ultra-low emission upgrades conclude and aluminum production approaches capacity limits, which may lead to higher future dividend payouts [3][30]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios, specifically highlighting Huazhong Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials as key investment opportunities, while suggesting to keep an eye on China Aluminum [5][34].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Life has significantly increased its stake in China Merchants Bank (CMB) H-shares, reaching the 20% threshold by December 31, 2025, reflecting a strategic investment in bank stocks amid a favorable environment for insurance capital [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Ping An has made its fourth public stake increase in CMB H-shares within a year, indicating a consistent strategy of acquiring bank stocks, which has become common among insurance funds [2]. - By the end of 2025, Ping An Life's holdings in CMB H-shares reached a book value of 43.956 billion yuan, demonstrating a clear and decisive increase from 5% to 20% [3]. - The long-term downtrend in interest rates has prompted insurance funds to seek stable and generous asset pools, with CMB fitting this profile perfectly [3]. Group 2: CMB's Performance - CMB continues to hold its position as the "king of retail," achieving steady profit growth in the first half of 2025 despite industry-wide pressure on interest margins [4]. - The bank maintains a high provision coverage ratio and outstanding asset quality compared to peers, making it an attractive investment [4]. - CMB's dividend distribution of 2.00 yuan per share for the 2024 fiscal year translates to a high H-share dividend yield, appealing to Ping An Life's need for long-duration matching assets [4]. Group 3: Ping An's Financial Health - Ping An experienced a nearly 50% increase in net profit for 2024, with a 3.7% growth in operating profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong financial resilience [5]. - The company benefits from a continuous double-digit growth in new business value in life insurance, providing a steady source of capital for investments [5]. - Current market conditions are viewed as a favorable window for insurance capital allocation, supported by regulatory encouragement for long-term funds to enter the market [5]. Group 4: Market Implications - The strategy of increasing holdings in CMB reflects a significant bet on future certainty of returns, as low volatility and high dividends gain consensus in the market [6]. - The effectiveness of this "heavy dividend" strategy will not only impact Ping An's investment returns but also serve as an important case study for observing trends in the era of large asset management [6].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Taikang Dividend Low Volatility ETF (560150) reflects a growing interest in dividend-paying assets, particularly among long-term institutional investors such as insurance funds, indicating a potential for stable capital inflows into these assets [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of January 8, 2026, the Taikang Dividend Low Volatility ETF (560150) recorded a transaction volume of 3.3052 million yuan, with the underlying index, the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index (H30269), declining by 0.49% [1]. - Over the past two weeks, the Taikang Dividend Low Volatility ETF (560150) saw a significant increase of 4 million shares, indicating strong growth [1]. - In the last 21 trading days, there were 11 days of net inflows into the ETF, totaling 14.8906 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Huachuang Securities noted a rising enthusiasm among insurance funds for equity stakes, with the number of stake acquisitions in 2025 significantly higher than in previous years, second only to the level seen in 2015 (62 times) [1]. - The acquisitions are concentrated in sectors such as banking, public utilities, environmental protection, and non-bank financials, primarily focusing on H-shares, reflecting a preference for dividend assets [1]. - Dongwu Securities emphasized the defensive value of dividend assets, suggesting that the demand for long-term capital from insurance funds will continue to support these investments [2]. Group 3: ETF Composition - The Taikang Dividend Low Volatility ETF (560150) closely tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index, which selects 50 securities characterized by good liquidity, consistent dividends, moderate payout ratios, positive growth in earnings per share, and high dividend yields with low volatility [2]. - The index employs a dividend yield weighting to reflect the overall performance of high dividend and low volatility securities [2].

Summary of Conference Call on Insurance Industry and Coal Sector Investment Industry Overview - The insurance industry in China is projected to see a total premium growth of 10% in 2026, reaching approximately 8 trillion yuan, with 30% of new premiums expected to be invested in A-shares, potentially bringing in 300 billion to over 700 billion yuan in incremental funds [1][2][3] - The long-term demand for pension savings in China is significant, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% for life insurance over the next decade, potentially reaching a fund balance of 105 trillion yuan by 2035, providing substantial incremental support to the A-share market [1][3] Key Insights on Asset Allocation - The asset shortage in the insurance sector is expected to ease compared to 2025, primarily due to rising bond yields, which have made new single sales costs more acceptable. However, long-term asset allocation pressures remain, with equity assets being a crucial allocation direction [1][4] - The "opening red" period for insurance companies has commenced, with funds starting to flow in. The first quarter is a critical time for asset allocation, particularly for bond assets, while stock asset allocation may be delayed [1][5] Investment Preferences and Trends - Insurance capital shows a strong interest in dividend-paying assets, particularly those that can provide stable investment returns, focusing on companies with stable ROE and attractive valuations. However, there is no clear indication of an intention to increase allocation to the coal sector specifically [1][6][7] - The requirement for dividend yields has decreased, with some companies lowering their entry standards from 5% to between 4% and 4.5%. This change is attributed to the decline in both new and existing liability costs, which have dropped from 3.3% to as low as 1.7% [1][8] Selection Criteria for Investment Targets - Insurance capital is increasingly focused on the relative cost-effectiveness of ROE and PB ratios rather than solely on static indicators like dividend rates or ROE. Sectors that can offer attractive cost-performance ratios and maintain stability are more likely to attract attention [1][9] Important Timeframes for Monitoring - Key periods to watch for potential asset allocation include April-May and October-November, as these times may see profit-taking behaviors due to annual and semi-annual report preparations. Historical data suggests a higher inclination to increase equity asset allocation in August and September, likely influenced by market performance post-interim reports [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in insurance company risk factors are expected to encourage long-term allocations in quality equity assets, particularly in dividend stocks, as institutional investors increase their equity asset allocations amid a supportive policy framework [1][25]. Group 1: Market Trends and Fund Flows - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) saw a net subscription of 59.78 million yuan yesterday, with a cumulative net subscription of 125 million yuan over the past three days [1]. - The insurance sector is anticipated to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares annually, with December to the first quarter being a traditional allocation window for insurance funds [25]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The recent notification from the Financial Regulatory Bureau regarding the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies aligns with the trend of increasing investment in dividend stocks by insurance firms [2][25]. - The policy focus is on capital market and consumption policies, with an emphasis on stimulating domestic demand and supporting emerging industries [25]. Group 3: Dividend Stock Analysis - Huatai Securities estimates that the industry is currently under-allocated in dividend stocks by approximately 0.8 to 1.6 trillion yuan, which may be addressed in the next two to three years [2]. - The average dividend yield of the newly included stocks in the index is 4.15%, compared to 3.89% for those being removed, indicating a trend towards higher-yielding stocks [20]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The latest PE ratio for the China Securities Dividend Index is 8.48 times, with a historical percentile of 98.43% over the past five years [14]. - The China Securities Dividend Total Return Index has shown a 40-day return difference of 1.54% relative to the Wind All A Index as of December 5 [8].

Core Insights - The insurance asset management industry is increasing its allocation to equity assets, with stock investment assets growing approximately 30.60% year-on-year and equity investment funds increasing about 36.20% [1][3][10] Group 1: Investment Trends - As of the end of 2024, insurance companies have invested a total of 30.55 trillion yuan, accounting for 91.85% of the industry's total fund utilization [1] - The allocation of insurance company investments includes 15.21 trillion yuan in bonds, 5.60 trillion yuan in stocks and public funds (excluding money market funds), and 1.92 trillion yuan in equity investment assets [3][6] - The growth rates for various equity assets include stock investment assets increasing by approximately 30.60%, public fund investments by about 10.42%, and equity investment assets by around 9.66% [3][10] Group 2: Asset Management Companies - In 2024, 34 insurance asset management companies had a total investment asset scale of 32.68 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% [6] - The asset allocation structure shows that bonds account for 46% (15.18 trillion yuan), financial products for 20% (6.66 trillion yuan), and stocks for 7% (2.17 trillion yuan) [6] - The growth rates for bonds, financial products, and stocks are approximately 28%, 31%, and 36% respectively [6] Group 3: Direct Equity Investment - The total scale of direct equity investment in the industry reached 1.16 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 22.2% [10] - The largest contributors to direct equity investment are insurance groups and life insurance companies, with scales of 5.78 trillion yuan and 5.06 trillion yuan respectively [10][12] - The growth in direct equity investment may be linked to insurance companies' increased focus on the healthcare and elderly care sectors, enhancing their life insurance business [12]