对话非银：2026 年险资配置煤炭有哪些期待？ 20260107 2026 年保险行业的保费增量规模预计约为 3,000 多亿元。根据测算，26 年总 行业的人身险保费收入大概可以达到 4.8 万亿元，对应的总保费增速约为 10%。关于流入资本市场的资金，根据监管要求，30%的新增保费用于投资 A 股。假设经营性现金流与总保费之间有一个比例关系，大致在 50%至 55%之 间，那么按照这一比例计算，新增保费中用于投资 A 股的部分可能在 3,000 亿 至 7,000 多亿之间。 具体来看，如果仅考虑大型国有保险公司，这一增量可能 是 3,000 多亿元；如果乐观地将更多保险公司纳入考量，则可能达到 7,000 多 亿元。此外，还需考虑存量敞口的问题，如果市场表现良好，存量敞口也会增 加。因此最差情况下大约有 3,000 多亿增量进入 A 股市场，而乐观情况下则会 更高。 对于 OCI 账户，大部分资金仍然会进入该账户，因为保险公司对收益稳 当前险资对股息率要求有所下降，部分公司入池标准从 5%降至 4%- 4.5%，主要原因是新增和存量负债成本下降，对各类资产收益率要求随 之降低，优质标的稀缺也是原因之一。 ...

此外，公告还补充了平安人寿权益类资产的整体配置情况。截至2025年9月30日，该公司权益类资产账 面余额为15046亿元，占当季末总资产的比例为27.00%，符合监管对保险机构权益类资产配置的相关要 求，整体资产配置结构保持稳健。 银行频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 近日，平安人寿发布公告，披露其委托投资中国农业银行H股股票触发举牌的相关情况，此次举牌由平 安资产管理有限责任公司（下称"平安资管"）受托操作完成。 责任编辑：钟离 公告显示，平安资管受平安人寿委托，运用其资金通过香港市场竞价交易方式买入农业银行H股股票， 截至2025年12月30日，持仓比例已达到农业银行H股总股本的20%，根据香港资本市场相关规则，正式 触发举牌。值得注意的是，平安资管为本次举牌的一致行动人，双方未就此次举牌事宜签署一致行动人 相关协议。 关于本次投资的财务数据，平安人寿同步披露，截至2025年12月30日，公司持有农业银行H股股票的账 面余额为324.28亿元，占其上一季度末总资产的比例为0.58%，持仓规模相对可控。 ...

高净投资收益覆盖率，加大权益类资产配置是提高净投资收益的重要手 段。 Q&A 保险资产负债管理的基本概念是什么？保险公司的资产和负债分别指什么？ 保险资产负债管理是指保险公司对其资产和负债进行协调管理，以确保在未来 能够履行对保单持有人的承诺。对于保险公司来说，资产主要是通过销售保单 获得的保费，这些保费会用于投资。而负债则是指未来需要支付给客户的赔付、 退保、红利等。这些支付义务代表了保险公司对客户的承诺，因此，尽管表面 上看起来是一张保单，但实际上是对未来支付责任的承诺。寿险公司的负债期 限通常较长，例如增额终身寿险可能需要在 30 年、40 年甚至 50 年后进行赔 付。因此，寿险公司特别关注资产与负债之间的匹配。 另类资产（如 REITs、ABS、黄金试点、大宗商品等）将继续成为分散 风险并提高风险调整后收益的重要工具，一些保险公司也在探索海外资 产配置，通过南向通增加海外债券投资。 AI 技术可以通过数据分析与预测模型优化决策过程，提高管理效率，例 如，在压力测试与风险评估中应用 AI，可以更精准地识别潜在问题并提 出解决方案，通过智能化系统提升报告生成与监控能力，实现实时动态 管理。 保险资产负债 ...

举牌潮涌：39次举牌创9年新高 高股息标的成核心青睐 近日，中邮人寿增持A股上市公司"四川路桥"股票11.43万股，增持后持股比例达到5%，触及举牌线。这是中邮人寿2025年年内第四次举牌，此前已先后布 局东航物流、绿色动力环保及中国通号，覆盖A股与H股多领域上市公司。 这是2025年险资举牌热情高涨的缩影。险资举牌是指，根据相关法律规定，投资者持有上市公司已发行股份达到5%时需公告披露。 据记者统计，2025年以来，险资年内合计举牌次数已达39次，涉及14家保险机构和28家上市公司，该数据仅低于2015年62次举牌的历史峰值。 从举牌标的看，险资较为青睐银行、基建、物流、能源等行业的高股息个股与上市公司H股。目前的39次举牌中，有32次举牌标的是H股上市公司，占比超 八成；举牌标的为银行的有13次，占比超30%。此外，举牌的多数股票的股息率都在4%以上。值得关注的是，有的险企对对同一标的还进行了多次举牌。 典型的如平安人寿，2025年对招商银行H股、邮储银行H股、农业银行H股等各完成3次举牌，其中对招商银行H股最新持股比例达18.02%。 对此，中保投资董事长贾飙表示，去年以来险资权益资产配置稳步提升的驱动 ...

Policy Direction - The policy aims to increase the proportion and stability of commercial insurance funds invested in A-shares, targeting a 30% investment of new premiums into A-shares from 2025[8] - The pilot program for long-term investment by insurance funds has been expanded, with a total of 222 billion yuan approved for long-term investments in 2023[9] - Regulatory rules are being optimized, including a 10% reduction in risk factors for stock investments and adjustments to the solvency ratio requirements for equity assets[9] Investment Projections - In a neutral scenario, insurance funds are projected to increase equity investments by 1.15 trillion yuan in 2026 and 1.45 trillion yuan in 2027, raising the equity asset proportion to 23.6% and 24.6% respectively[2] - If new premiums are allocated 30% to A-shares, the projected new equity investments would be 9.88 trillion yuan in 2026 and 10.77 trillion yuan in 2027, with equity asset proportions reaching 23.2% and 23.7%[28] Risk Factors and Challenges - Risks include lower-than-expected premium income, which could lead to insufficient new funds for investment[4] - Significant market volatility may impact investment returns and asset values, affecting the pace of insurance funds entering the market[4]

来源|财富独角兽 在利率下探、负债成本高企的市场环境下，险企对投资端的依赖程度持续加大。特别是权益资产，逐渐成为缓解利差压力、延长久期的重要工具。但投资 扩张的背后，也考验险企交易合规与边界规则的底线。 文|小方 2025年12月9日，河北证监局对长城人寿保险股份有限公司（以下简称"长城人寿"）出具警示函，源于其在增持新天绿色能源股份有限公司（简称"新天绿 能"）时，触及5%的持股比例红线后未停止交易。 这纸警示函将其推至舆论前台，映射出险资投资操作与合规边界之间动态平衡的重要性，也揭示了一家险企作为市场上的"举牌大户"，在投资扩张上面临 的挑战。 01 警示函，"举牌大户"的合规之考？ 根据公开披露信息，2025年9月23日，长城人寿在二级市场增持新天绿能股票100万股，增持完成后，合计持有新天绿能股份约2.104亿股，占该公司总股 本比例达到5.0027%。次日，即9月24日，新天绿色能源股份有限公司发布"关于股东持股比例达到5%的权益变动提示性公告"，对上述权益变动情况进行 了信息披露。 图片来源：新天绿色能源相关公告 不过，按照现行交易规则，在持股比例达到5%后，投资主体需在规定期限内暂停继续交易，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management companies are shifting towards diversified investment strategies in response to the low interest rate environment, focusing on multi-asset and multi-strategy products to enhance performance and meet investor demands [1][2][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Shift - The transition from single bond investments to diversified asset allocation is driven by declining yields on fixed-income products, prompting banks to explore various asset classes [2][3]. - Institutions are increasingly adopting a "multi-asset multi-strategy" approach, incorporating REITs, convertible bonds, equities, and derivatives to create better investment combinations while managing overall volatility [2][3]. - The need for dynamic asset allocation strategies has risen, as static models may fail in rapidly changing market conditions, necessitating regular adjustments based on market dynamics and economic factors [3][6]. Group 2: Focus on Equity Assets - Equity assets are viewed as a crucial component for enhancing overall portfolio returns, with many institutions optimistic about their potential [4][5]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with expectations that the stock market will outperform bonds, potentially attracting more funds into the A-share market [5]. - Investment strategies include a focus on high-certainty sectors such as technology and AI, while also balancing investments in cyclical value stocks and commodities to mitigate risks associated with overexposure to any single asset class [5][6]. Group 3: Operational Considerations - Wealth management firms are advised to maintain a conservative approach when entering equity markets, ensuring adherence to risk management and return optimization principles [6]. - Collaboration with public funds and brokerages is being explored to enhance investment capabilities, allowing banks to participate in new stock inquiries and strategic placements to diversify their investment tools [6].

数据显示，今年前三季度，173家保险机构的平均投资收益率为3.27%，中位数为3.04%。投资收益率最 高的是富邦财产保险有限公司(以下简称"富邦财险")，为22.77%，最低的是安盛环球再保险(上海)有限 公司，为-0.31%。从分布来看，36家保险机构的投资收益率在4%及以上，55家保险机构的投资收益率 在3%至4%之间(含3%，不含4%)，51家保险机构的投资收益率在2%至3%之间(含2%，不含3%)，30家保 险机构的投资收益率低于2%，1家保险机构的投资收益率为负。 从公司类型来看，截至目前，共有72家人身险公司公布了前三季度投资收益率，平均值为3.74%，中位 数为3.28%。投资收益率最高的是君龙人寿保险有限公司，投资收益率为12.21%，最低的是爱心人寿保 险股份有限公司，投资收益率为1.96%。 86家财险公司公布了前三季度投资收益率，平均值为3.05%，中位数为3.06%。其中，富邦财险投资收 益率最高，为22.77%，苏州东吴财产保险股份有限公司的投资收益率最低，为0.19%。 15家再保险公司披露了前三季度投资收益率，平均值为2.28%，中位数为2.75%。其中，中国财产再保 险有限责 ...

Core Insights - The insurance industry is experiencing significant profit growth, with increases ranging from 40% to 70% for several companies in their third-quarter reports [1][2][3] - The positive performance is largely attributed to a favorable stock market environment, which has encouraged insurance funds to increase their equity investments [1][5] Group 1: Company Performance - China Life Insurance expects a net profit of approximately RMB 156.79 billion to RMB 177.69 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about RMB 52.26 billion to RMB 73.17 billion, or 50% to 70% growth [2][3] - New China Life Insurance anticipates a net profit of RMB 29.99 billion to RMB 34.12 billion for the same period, marking a year-on-year surge of 45% to 65%, surpassing its entire 2024 net profit of RMB 26.2 billion [2][3][4] - China Pacific Insurance also projects a net profit increase of approximately 40% to 60% for the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the rising capital market [5][6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Insurance funds have significantly increased their investments in the stock market, with a total balance exceeding RMB 3 trillion, up RMB 640 billion from the end of 2024 [1][7][9] - The banking sector remains the largest investment focus for insurance funds, accounting for 47.2% of the total market value of heavy-weight stocks held by these funds [7][9] - The shift towards equity assets is driven by a low-interest-rate environment and government policies encouraging long-term capital market participation, with bank stocks being favored for their stability and reliable dividends [9][10] Group 3: Market Trends - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown strong performance, prompting insurance funds to increase their equity market investments, resulting in substantial income [7][8] - Insurance companies have actively participated in IPOs, with significant investments in various sectors, including materials and technology [7][8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the misconception that "stability" equates to "zero volatility," leading investors to allocate retirement funds into low-risk savings, which ultimately exposes them to hidden risks of purchasing power erosion [1] - It emphasizes the importance of achieving a long-term annualized return of at least 4%-5% to counteract inflation, despite the current low interest rate environment posing challenges [3] Group 1: Inflation and Purchasing Power - The "real inflation rate" indicator, derived from the difference between M2 money supply growth and GDP growth, reveals the reality of monetary overexpansion, with China's real inflation rate fluctuating between 0.4% and 8.7% from 2014 to 2025, with median and average values at 4.3% and 4.0% respectively [1] - Assuming a moderate inflation rate of 4%, the actual purchasing power of 1 million yuan will decrease to approximately 330,000 yuan over 30 years, indicating that relying solely on low-risk savings products will struggle to withstand this gradual erosion [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - In response to the low interest rate environment, many countries have adjusted their pension asset allocations, with the National Pension Service of Korea allocating 43.5% to equity assets and Japan's GPIF increasing its equity asset target allocation from 20% in 2006 to 50% in 2020, with over 90% of investments being passive [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies in Equity Assets - Investing in broad-based index funds can achieve long-term profitability by capitalizing on market fluctuations through buying low and selling high, as illustrated by the "smile curve" in systematic investment plans [7] - Broad-based indices represent a basket of quality listed companies, which benefit from national economic growth, ensuring that these representative industry leaders will appreciate over time [8] - Dividend income from core broad-based indices provides cash flow and compounding benefits, as stable companies tend to distribute profits as dividends, which can be reinvested to enhance overall returns [10] Group 4: Historical Performance of Indices - Historical performance data shows significant returns for various indices from 2004 to 2025, with the CSI A500 index achieving a total return of 592.97% when considering reinvested dividends [11]