机构：中金公司 研究员：冯喜鹏/陈诗雨/张琎 2025FY 基本符合市场预期 公司公布2025FY（20240401 – 20250331）业绩：收入305.98 亿元（+13.2% YoY），归母净利润14.32 亿元（+62.1% YoY），non-GAAP 净利润19.50 亿元（+35.6% YoY），基本符合市场预期。 发展趋势 公司核心主业维持稳健发展。2025FY 收入端分板块看：1）医药自营业务收入261.24 亿元（+10.0% YoY），持续兑现稳健发展，我们预计海内外医疗保健相关大类及药品大类表现或相对良好；2）医药 电商平台业务收入35.88 亿元（+54.0% YoY），我们预计主要因2025FY 首次完整并表广告营销业务， 带来表观收入端增厚；3）医疗健康和数字化服务业务收入8.85 亿元（-7.6% YoY），我们预计主要因 部分创新业务动态调整导致板块经营稍显波动。 利润端表现稳中有进。公司2025FY 毛利率24.3%（+2.5pct YoY），我们预计一方面因公司规模效应摊 薄采购成本并侧重利润品类经营，另一方面2025FY 首次完整并表高毛利的广告营销业务亦对毛利水平 拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health reported a total revenue of 16.3 billion yuan for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, which exceeded the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 12.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 970 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, but fell short of the consensus estimate of 11.0% [1] - Future profit growth is expected to rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1] Revenue Breakdown - The self-operated business generated revenue of 14 billion yuan in 2HFY25, up 13.9% year-on-year, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1% [2] - The pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business revenue was 1.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.6%, but below the consensus estimate of 57.7% [2] - The number of SKUs in the self-operated business increased by 33.6% year-on-year to 1.23 million [2] Business Development and Strategy - The integration of advertising business has enhanced the service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and increased competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2] - Management indicated that the growth effect from Taobao's flash purchase exceeded expectations, suggesting a dual adaptation strategy for both remote and near-field models in the pharmaceutical health sector [2] Innovation and Future Guidance - The company reported stable growth in GMV for self-operated and platform businesses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3] - Innovative businesses like "Code on Trust" and "Little Deer Traditional Chinese Medicine" have shown development, with "Code on Trust" covering a vast network of users and generating initial revenue [3] - The revenue growth target for FY26 is set at 5-10%, with adjusted net profit growth expected at 10-20% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY26-27 have been revised down by 8.8% and 8.4% to 2.3 billion yuan and 2.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast introduced at 2.9 billion yuan [3] - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x, reflecting a premium over the comparable company's average of 16.2x for 2026, considering the ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [3] - The target price is set at 5.43 HKD, up from a previous value of 4.4 HKD [3]

Revenue Highlights - In FY2025, the company's operating revenue reached 30.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, primarily driven by the rapid growth of its pharmaceutical platform business [1] - The self-operated pharmaceutical revenue was 26.1 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous enrichment of B2C retail product SKUs, which increased by 33.6% to 1.23 million, along with growth in medical devices driven by national subsidies [1] - E-commerce platform service revenue amounted to 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%, benefiting from the injection of health category advertising business, with the number of platform merchants growing by 35% to 48,300 and SKUs increasing by 91% to 133 million [1] - Revenue from healthcare and digital services was 890 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 8% [1] Profitability Insights - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 6.37%, up 1 percentage point [2] - Gross margin improved to 24.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points, primarily driven by the consolidation of higher-margin advertising business [2] - The fulfillment expense ratio was 8.4%, down 0.5 percentage points, with fulfillment expenses accounting for 9.8% of self-operated business revenue, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, mainly due to improved operational efficiency in warehousing, logistics, and customer service [2] - The sales expense ratio was 7.4%, up 0.8 percentage points, while the management expense ratio remained stable at 1.3% [2] - The R&D expense ratio was 2.4%, down 0.2 percentage points, attributed to cost control and optimized R&D strategies [2] Future Outlook - The company is actively exploring AI in healthcare, enhancing operational efficiency across various scenarios such as optimizing pharmaceutical search models, smart supply chains for pharmacies, intelligent product operations, and smart customer service [2] - The company aims to empower consumers with an AI-driven product search engine and plans to develop more AI knowledge platform products for doctors, facilitating medical knowledge exchange [2] - Revenue projections for FY2026 and FY2027 are estimated at 33.5 billion yuan and 36.4 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.3 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan [3] - The company anticipates FY2028 revenue to reach 39.4 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, currently trading at a FY2025 PE ratio of 31x [3]

| | | 2、百度（9888):全日收82.65元，投資者問是否有支持位？從日線圖看，在保利加通道中線跌至底部，甚至已經跌穿底部的支持。而周線圖看股價也跌回中 線下方，走勢不是很理想。技術信號的總結為"強力賣出"，賣出信號多過買入。進一步再跌的話，參考市場數據，比如我們數據系統分析的78.8元。再跌則 下試試周線圖的底部76.4元。 1、恆指：指數全日收23544點。投資者認為指數低於23500以下可以小注搏反彈。而看空投資者認為恒指會繼續下行考驗23000的支持位。走勢上，恆指維持橫盤格 局，整體變化不大。技術信號轉弱一些，信號總結為"買入"，未能到"強力買入"的信號。支持和阻力位可參考22815點和24000點。 3、周大福（1929）：全日收11.46元。投資者問是否會挑戰12元位置？走勢上，維持向上的趨勢，從2月初開始，股價從7元一路上行，走勢理想。目前技術 信號為"強力買入"，走勢也維持上行趨勢。第一阻力先參考保利加通道頂部11.64元。突破則參考我們數據分析的阻力位11.9元。這兩組數據暫時都低於12 元。窩輪市場上，暫時沒有追高的投資者，早前在9元有人部署認購證。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for FY2025 reached 30.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, primarily driven by the rapid growth of its pharmaceutical platform business [10][11] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 1.95 billion yuan, an increase of 36% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 6.37% [11] - The company is actively exploring AI in healthcare to enhance operational efficiency across various scenarios, including AI-driven product search engines and knowledge platforms for medical professionals [11] Revenue Summary - The company's pharmaceutical self-operated revenue was 26.1 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, supported by a 33.6% increase in the number of self-operated B2C retail SKUs to 1.23 million [10] - E-commerce platform service revenue was 3.6 billion yuan, a significant increase of 54%, driven by the health category advertising business, with the number of platform merchants growing by 35% to 48,300 [10] - Revenue from healthcare and digital services declined by 8% to 890 million yuan [10] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit margin improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the gross margin increased by 2.5 percentage points to 24.3% [11] - The fulfillment expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.4%, indicating improved operational efficiency in warehousing, logistics, and customer service [11] - The company has potential for further optimization in sales and fulfillment expense ratios, suggesting continued improvement in profitability [11] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2026 and FY2027 are estimated at 33.5 billion yuan and 36.4 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.3 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan [3][18] - The forecast for FY2028 includes revenue of 39.4 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 3.2 billion yuan [3][18]

恒生科技指数跌超2%，阿里健康跌超6%，联想跌超5%。 ...

恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至1%。阿里健康、哔哩哔哩跌超4%，百度跌超3%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. Adjusted net profit was RMB 970 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, but below the consensus expectation of 11.0% [1]. - Future profit growth is expected to rely primarily on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes. Key areas to monitor include the recovery of demand across various pharmaceutical e-commerce categories, the progress of Taobao's instant retail strategy, and advancements in medical AI technology [1][2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's self-operated business revenue for 2HFY25 was RMB 14 billion, up 13.9% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 9.1%. The pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business generated RMB 1.9 billion, a growth of 43.6%, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% [2]. - The management indicated that the integration of the advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and increased competitiveness in the pharmaceutical health e-commerce sector [2][3]. Business Strategy and Guidance - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with adjusted net profit growth projected at 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in traditional core businesses while seeking new growth points in innovative businesses such as medical AI [4][5]. - The company aims to improve profitability in mature businesses while exploring new growth avenues through innovative initiatives like "Code Assurance" and "Little Deer Traditional Chinese Medicine" [3][4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Adjustments to the FY26-27 adjusted net profit forecasts have been made, with a decrease of 8.8% and 8.4% to RMB 2.3 billion and RMB 2.6 billion, respectively. A new forecast for FY28 has been introduced at RMB 2.9 billion [5][14]. - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, reflecting a premium over comparable companies' average of 16.2x, driven by its market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. However, the adjusted net profit of RMB 970 million was below the expected RMB 1.1 billion, indicating that future profit growth will rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1][2]. - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with an adjusted net profit growth target of 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in core businesses while exploring new growth avenues in innovative sectors like medical AI [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 33.6 billion in FY26, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17.6% [14][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve to 6.8% in FY26, up from previous estimates, indicating better operational efficiency [14][15]. Business Segments Performance - The self-operated business generated RMB 14 billion in revenue for 2HFY25, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1%. The e-commerce platform business saw revenue of RMB 1.9 billion, growing 43.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% growth [2][3]. - The management highlighted that the integration of advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, which is a premium compared to the average of 16.2x for comparable companies, reflecting the company's ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 5.43 from a previous value of HKD 4.4, indicating a positive outlook based on the company's growth trajectory and market positioning [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health reported strong financial results for the fiscal year 2025, marking the third consecutive year of revenue and net profit growth, driven by increased user engagement and innovation in its business model [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Alibaba Health achieved a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 1.432 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 62.2% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit reached 1.95 billion yuan, up 35.6% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Historical Performance - Alibaba Health's revenue has shown a consistent upward trend, increasing from 9.596 billion yuan in fiscal year 2020 to 30.598 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025 [3]. - The net profit has fluctuated but generally trended upwards, from a loss of 6.586 million yuan in fiscal year 2020 to a profit of 1.432 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025 [3]. Business Development - The company has enhanced its one-stop healthcare service capabilities, focusing on improving user experience through better product offerings and services [4]. - The Tmall Health platform has seen steady growth, with a significant increase in annual GMV and active users, and the number of online products grew by over 91% to 133 million [4]. Investment in Innovation - Alibaba Health invested 720 million yuan in product development during fiscal year 2025, focusing on AI technology, business optimization, and digital traceability [5]. - The company’s self-operated pharmaceutical business generated over 26.124 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [5]. Market Position and Stock Performance - Alibaba Health's stock price saw a cumulative increase of over 60% in February and March due to the recovery of the Hong Kong tech sector and interest in AI healthcare concepts, but has since declined [7]. - As of May 20, the stock price was 4.89 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 78.7 billion HKD [7].