中证报中证网讯（记者 杨洁）1月23日晚，中科星图披露2025年年度业绩预告。公司预计2025年实现营 业收入25亿元至27.5亿元，预计实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润3000万元至4500万元。此次业绩表 现，核心源于公司正处于新旧动能转化与商业模式转型的双重关键期，但短期调整背后是公司"一体两 翼"长期战略布局的持续推进。 "一体两翼"，即以地理信息为主体，商业航天与低空经济为两翼。新旧动能转换的衔接缺口，是业绩短 期承压的核心原因。作为公司传统主业的地理信息板块，2025年受市场需求结构性变动影响，业务拓展 节奏放缓，虽仍为营收主要贡献者，但增速不及预期，对整体业绩形成一定拖累。而商业航天、低空经 济等新兴板块尚处于发力启动阶段，红利未完全兑现。 记者了解到，商业航天领域，中科星图已完成全产业链布局，推出"星眼"太空感知星座计划，拟于2026 年上半年起陆续发射156颗卫星，破解过亿量级太空碎片带来的交通安全管理困局，但卫星星座建设、 核心技术攻坚需持续投入；低空经济板块，构建"1+2+N+M"战略体系，落地汉中、重庆等标杆项目， 服务近百座城市，不过由于市场培育周期较短，对短期盈利贡献有限。 业绩短期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements and strategic positioning of Xingtum Control Technology Co., Ltd. in the aerospace control sector, emphasizing its technological innovations and market strategies to address the growing demands of space traffic management and satellite monitoring [2][10]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - Xingtum Control has developed the "Insight" software system and ground control equipment, enabling precise command delivery to satellites hundreds of kilometers away, ensuring smooth operations and continuous data transmission [2]. - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in aerospace control technology, supported by over 40 invention patents and more than 290 software copyrights [2]. - The "Insight" space information analysis system was launched in 2018, integrating hundreds of algorithms for orbital prediction and collision warning, which was a major challenge for the company [3][4]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company focuses on establishing a strong foundation in specialized fields while expanding into commercial sectors, aiming to respond quickly to the explosive demand in commercial aerospace [6]. - From 2020 to 2024, Xingtum Control's revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 80%, with a long-term gross margin exceeding 50% [6]. - The company has adapted its strategy to target the commercial space sector, recognizing the upcoming demand for low-orbit satellite constellations [6][7]. Group 3: Future Developments - Xingtum Control plans to launch the "Star Eye" space perception constellation, consisting of 156 satellites, to create a global monitoring network for near-Earth orbits [9]. - The "Star Eye" system aims to provide real-time tracking, orbit determination, and collision risk analysis, addressing the increasing congestion and debris risks in space [9]. - The company envisions a future where space services are data-driven, offering customized data services to governments and operators, thus opening broader market opportunities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the "Star Eye" space perception constellation plan by Xingtu Measurement and Control, aiming to create an integrated monitoring network for space, enhancing the management of thousands of satellites in orbit [1][2]. Industry Development - The Chinese commercial space sector is entering a critical phase of rapid development, supported by government initiatives such as the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)" and the establishment of a commercial space administration [1][2]. - The focus is shifting from merely launching satellites to utilizing space data effectively, indicating a transition towards industrialization in commercial space [4][5]. Technological Challenges - The "Star Eye" plan aims to achieve precise monitoring of satellites in motion, which presents significant challenges in satellite stability, camera performance, and data processing capabilities [3]. - The company plans to complete the deployment of an orbital plane by 2027, followed by the launch of additional satellites to establish a global monitoring network [3]. Service and Ecosystem Development - Xingtu Measurement and Control positions itself as a comprehensive space management service provider, focusing on space situational awareness, traffic services, and in-orbit services [2][3]. - The company emphasizes the need for a shared data mechanism for space debris and the establishment of operational rules for satellite orbits, which are seen as both a national strategic necessity and an industry responsibility [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that as technology matures and costs decrease, the application of space data and services will experience explosive growth, shifting the focus of commercial space from launch-driven to application-driven [4]. - To achieve sustainable growth, the company aims to create an integrated industrial path combining data, software, and services, while fostering a collaborative ecosystem among manufacturers, application developers, and service providers [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company is deeply engaged in the commercial aerospace industry, covering four core areas: constellation construction and operation, aerospace electronic equipment manufacturing, aerospace measurement and control, and satellite application services. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 436 million, 525 million, and 627 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.54, 0.65, and 0.78 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 82.2, 68.1, and 57.1 for 2025-2027 [2][3] Summary by Sections Business Strategy - The company has planned the construction of specialized commercial satellite constellations, including space computing, space perception, commercial meteorology, and commercial electromagnetic constellations, enhancing multi-layer data perception capabilities on Earth. Additionally, it has developed the "Tianjian" series of rocket electronic systems and the "Tianxing" series of satellite electronic systems to meet the demands of the commercial aerospace electronic equipment market [3] Collaboration and Innovation - The company is collaborating with Zhongke Shuguang to build an open and inclusive space computing network, which will create a "space-ground integrated" collaborative intelligent computing architecture. This aims to achieve interconnection and real-time data processing of computing resources, integrating with national-level computing service platforms to promote innovation and application of "space computing" technology [4] New Initiatives - The subsidiary, Xingtian Measurement and Control, has officially launched the "Xingyan" space perception constellation plan, which aims to provide innovative solutions for space traffic safety management. The plan intends to launch 156 satellites starting in the first half of 2026, forming a global near-Earth orbit detection network to predict collision risks, monitor space debris, and assist in space traffic management [5] Financial Projections - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 3.992 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.6%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 436 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.8%. The gross margin is projected to be 50.7%, and the net margin is expected to be 10.9% [7][9][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower but rose throughout the day, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing slight gains. Blue-chip stocks experienced minor adjustments, and trading volume continued to shrink [2] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing high demand, with military stocks collectively rising. The sector index approached historical highs, with stocks like Qianzhao Optoelectronics hitting a 20% limit up and achieving a historical price peak [3] - The National Space Administration recently issued an action plan for the development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, which includes establishing a national commercial aerospace development fund and encouraging long-term and strategic investments [4] Government Initiatives - The action plan emphasizes enhancing government procurement mechanisms for commercial aerospace services and promoting the participation of commercial capabilities in national space missions. Additionally, a company named Xingtum Measurement and Control announced a plan to build a satellite network for space monitoring, with the first test satellite expected to launch in the first half of 2026 [5] Industry Growth Projections - According to data from Zhongshan Industrial Research Institute, the output value of China's commercial aerospace industry is projected to grow from 1 trillion yuan in 2020 to approximately 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 22.9%. By 2025, this figure is expected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan [5] - Dongwu Securities forecasts that by 2030, the market size of China's commercial aerospace sector will reach 7.8 trillion yuan, with potential for domestic leading companies to achieve valuations in the hundreds of billions or even trillions [5] 6G Technology Development - The communication sector saw a strong performance, particularly in 6G concepts, with stocks like Dongtian Microelectronics hitting a 20% limit up. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized accelerating 6G technology research and development, with 2025 being a critical year for standardization [6][8] - The global 6G technology market is projected to grow from $1.66 billion in 2024 to $14.94 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 43.98% [8] - The integration of artificial intelligence with communication technology is expected to enhance the development of 6G, with major telecom operators leading the hardware industry chain [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing slight gains, while large-cap stocks experienced minor adjustments [1] - The overall market saw more stocks rising than falling, although trading volume continued to shrink [1] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing high growth, with military stocks rising collectively and the commercial aerospace index approaching historical highs [2] - The National Space Administration's recent action plan aims to enhance the investment and financing mechanisms for commercial aerospace, including the establishment of a national development fund [4] - The commercial aerospace industry in China is projected to grow from a value of 1 trillion yuan in 2020 to approximately 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 22.9% [4] - By 2030, the commercial aerospace market in China is expected to reach 7.8 trillion yuan, with potential for local leading companies to achieve valuations in the hundreds of billions or even trillions [5] Group 3: 6G Technology Development - The communication sector is seeing a strong performance, particularly in 6G technology, with significant stock price increases [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the acceleration of 6G technology research, with 2025 being a critical year for standard development [9] - The global 6G technology market is projected to grow from $1.66 billion in 2024 to $14.94 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 43.98% [9] - The integration of artificial intelligence with communication technology is expected to enhance the development of the 6G hardware industry [9]

Core Insights - China's commercial space industry is entering a golden development period with significant technological breakthroughs and industrial growth as it is included in the national space development plan [1][2] - The "Star Eye" space awareness constellation plan aims to provide innovative solutions for space traffic management and enhance satellite operation reliability [1][6] Industry Development - The commercial space sector has been included in government work reports for two consecutive years, indicating its importance as a new industry [2] - The market size of China's commercial space industry is projected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with estimates of 2.5 trillion to 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] - Total financing for the commercial space sector is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 25 billion to 28 billion yuan in 2025 [2] - The industry is anticipated to enter a significant acceleration phase by 2025, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and satellite manufacturing [2][3] Action Plan Highlights - The "Action Plan" outlines 22 key measures across five areas to promote high-quality development in the commercial space sector [3] - Emphasis is placed on optimizing the industrial structure, encouraging innovation, and enhancing collaboration between upstream and downstream players [3][5] - The plan aims to establish a support mechanism for commercial satellite operations, including policies for launch, tracking, and decommissioning [5] Space Traffic Management - The "Star Eye" constellation will consist of 156 satellites to monitor near-Earth orbits, track satellites, and analyze space debris [6] - The increasing number of satellites and debris poses significant risks, with over 50,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 cm and approximately 1.4 billion pieces between 1 mm and 1 cm [5][6] - The development of autonomous space awareness capabilities is crucial for safeguarding in-orbit assets and ensuring sustainable space operations [6]

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Industry - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing high growth, with military stocks showing strength and commercial aerospace leading the gains, approaching historical highs [1][3] - The National Space Administration of China has issued an action plan for the development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, which includes establishing a national commercial aerospace development fund and encouraging long-term investments [3] - The commercial aerospace industry in China is projected to grow from a value of 1 trillion yuan in 2020 to approximately 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.9% [3] - By 2030, the market size of China's commercial aerospace sector is expected to reach 7.8 trillion yuan, with potential for local leaders to achieve valuations in the hundreds of billions or even trillions [4] Group 2: 6G Technology Development - The telecommunications sector is seeing a strong performance, particularly in 6G concepts, with significant stock gains and indices approaching historical highs [5] - 2025 is identified as a critical year for the initiation of 6G standard research, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing accelerated development and investment in 6G technology [7] - The global market for 6G technology is projected to grow from $1.66 billion in 2024 to $14.94 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 43.98% [7] - The integration of artificial intelligence with communication technology is expected to enhance the development of the 6G hardware industry chain, with major telecommunications operators leading this growth [7]