Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences (GILD) is currently viewed as a more attractive undervalued stock option compared to Amgen (AMGN) based on various financial metrics and earnings outlook [1][7]. Valuation Metrics - GILD has a forward P/E ratio of 14.24, while AMGN's forward P/E is 15.10, indicating GILD may be undervalued relative to AMGN [5]. - The PEG ratio for GILD is 0.73, suggesting a favorable valuation when considering expected earnings growth, compared to AMGN's PEG ratio of 2.60 [5]. - GILD's P/B ratio stands at 7.26, significantly lower than AMGN's P/B ratio of 28.50, further supporting GILD's valuation as more attractive [6]. Earnings Outlook - GILD is experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which enhances its position in the Zacks Rank model, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates [3][7].

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Core Viewpoint - Amgen has outperformed Merck in 2025, with a year-to-date return of 21%, while Merck's shares have declined by 8% [1] Valuation Comparison - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a key metric for assessing stock valuation, with a lower P/E indicating a cheaper stock relative to earnings [2] - Amgen's projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 15, while Merck's is 10, making Merck appear cheaper [3] - Merck also offers a larger dividend yield of 3.4% compared to Amgen's 2.9% [3] Growth Potential - Amgen is experiencing stronger growth, with a 19% year-over-year revenue increase in 2024, significantly higher than Merck's 7% [5] - Amgen's portfolio includes multiple best-in-class products, and there is anticipation for its experimental obesity drug, MariTide, which is entering phase 3 trials [5] Challenges Facing Merck - Merck is facing challenges such as disappointing sales for its Gardasil vaccine and uncertainty regarding the loss of patent exclusivity for its Keytruda cancer drug, which are negatively impacting its stock price [6]

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: Comprehensive analysis of the US drug market conducted by IQVIA Rx Key Market Metrics - **Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth**: - Latest weekly growth (week ending March 14, 2025) was +4.0%, up from +3.0% the previous week and +2.3% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] - For the week ended March 14, the total market weekly TRx YoY change was +4.0% compared to +1.2% a year ago [2] - Rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +3.1% and rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +2.3% [2] - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +2.2%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, had approximately 1,340 scripts for the week, an increase from ~1,300 the previous week [3] - To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3x the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches, with an estimated requirement of ~125K TRx to reach consensus estimates of $160 million [3] - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - Journavx, approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, recorded ~1,150 scripts for the week, up from ~610 the previous week [4] - To achieve a sales estimate of $87 million, approximately 229K and 441K total scripts are needed for 14-day and 7-day script durations, respectively [4] Competitive Landscape - **Biosimilars**: - Updates on biosimilar launches including Amgen's Wezlana and Teva's Selarsdi, with respective launch dates of January 17, 2025, and February 21, 2025 [5] - **Seasonal Vaccines**: - RSV vaccine volumes are tracking ~65% below last year's levels, while COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [9] Notable Drug Performance - **Eli Lilly (LLY)**: - Mounjaro and Zepbound launches are being tracked, with Mounjaro showing significant growth [10] - **AbbVie**: - Humira is experiencing a decline of -41% YoY, while Rinvoq and Skyrizi are showing growth rates of 43% and 49% respectively [22][23] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The analysis indicates that extended unit data trends were more positive than prescription trends, suggesting a shift towards longer-duration prescriptions [33] - **Sales Trends**: - The IQVIA databases differentiate between prescription and sales trends, with TRx representing total prescriptions dispensed including refills [29] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the biopharma industry, specific company performances, and market dynamics.

Group 1 - Amgen's stock closed at $314.38, showing a decrease of -0.53% from the previous day, while the S&P 500 gained 1.77% [1] - Over the past month, Amgen's shares increased by 4.3%, outperforming the Medical sector's decline of -1.17% and the S&P 500's drop of -5.73% [1] Group 2 - Amgen's upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings per share (EPS) of $4.18, a 5.56% increase year-over-year, with projected quarterly revenue of $8.01 billion, up 7.52% from the previous year [2] - For the entire year, Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $20.63 per share and revenue of $35 billion, reflecting increases of +3.98% and +4.72% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent analyst estimate revisions for Amgen indicate a positive outlook for the company's business trends [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Amgen at 3 (Hold), with a Forward P/E ratio of 15.32, lower than the industry average of 18.52 [6] Group 4 - Amgen has a PEG ratio of 2.63, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.51, indicating a higher valuation relative to projected earnings growth [7] - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes Amgen, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 74, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen's stock has outperformed the industry, rising 21.7% this year compared to a 7% increase for the industry, driven by strong sales from key drugs and a robust pipeline [1][4]. Financial Performance - Amgen's total revenues increased by 19% in 2024, reaching $33.4 billion, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 from key drugs and biosimilars [4][23]. - Sales from biosimilars reached $2.2 billion in 2024, marking a 16% year-over-year increase [13]. Key Drugs and Pipeline - Key drugs driving revenue include Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire, and rare disease drugs from the Horizon acquisition, while older products like Prolia and Xgeva are expected to decline due to biosimilar competition [4][6][17]. - Amgen is evaluating several drugs for additional indications, with regulatory applications planned for Uplizna in 2025 [7]. - The company is developing MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor, with promising phase II data showing up to 20% weight loss over 52 weeks [9][16]. Challenges and Setbacks - Amgen faces pricing headwinds and competitive pressures affecting sales of key brands like Otezla and Lumakras [5][6]. - Recent setbacks in the obesity pipeline include a clinical hold on AMG 513 and lower-than-expected weight loss results from MariTide [15][16]. Valuation and Estimates - Amgen's shares trade at a price/earnings ratio of 15.26, slightly below the industry average of 16.85, and above its five-year mean of 13.83 [18]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share for 2025 has increased from $20.36 to $20.63 over the past 60 days [25].

Group 1: Amgen - Amgen is positioned for growth with key products like Tezspire for asthma and Tepezza for thyroid eye disease, with ongoing clinical trials and international launches [3][4] - The company reported a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $33.4 billion, with a solid 7% organic growth [4] - Amgen's pipeline includes promising candidates like MariTide for weight loss and rocatinlimab for eczema, indicating strong long-term performance potential [5] - The company offers a forward dividend yield of about 3%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.3%, and has increased its payouts by 201% over the past decade [6] Group 2: Intuitive Surgical - Intuitive Surgical leads in robotic-assisted surgery with its da Vinci surgical system, recently launching the fifth generation of this device, which has seen strong demand [7][9] - The da Vinci 5 features improvements such as greater precision and efficiency, and a Force Feedback technology that enhances surgical accuracy [8] - The company experienced a 25% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.41 billion, with adjusted earnings per share rising from $1.60 to $2.21 [9] - Intuitive Surgical has treated 16 million patients with its systems, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% in procedure volume over the past five years, indicating sustained growth potential [10][11]

Group 1: Company Performance - Amgen's stock closed at $317.17, reflecting a +1.1% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.64% [1] - Over the past month, Amgen's shares have risen by 7.74%, contrasting with the Medical sector's loss of 0.88% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.69% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Amgen is expected to report an EPS of $4.18, representing a 5.56% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $8.01 billion, indicating a 7.52% increase year-over-year [2] Group 3: Full-Year Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates project Amgen's earnings at $20.63 per share and revenue at $35 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of +3.98% and +4.72%, respectively [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates suggest a favorable outlook on Amgen's business health and profitability [3] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Amgen's Forward P/E ratio is 15.2, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 19.99, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.62, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.55 [7] Group 5: Industry Ranking - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes Amgen, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 73, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Insights - Amgen reported positive results from the phase III MINT study for Uplizna, indicating its potential for label expansion in generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) [1][4] Group 1: Study Results - Uplizna demonstrated durable efficacy in AChR-positive gMG patients over 52 weeks, with a 2.8-point improvement in MG-ADL scores compared to placebo [2] - 72% of AChR+ patients treated with Uplizna showed an improvement of three or more points in MG-ADL scores, versus 45% in the placebo group [2] - In the QMG score, 69% of AChR+ patients on Uplizna improved by three or more points, compared to nearly 42% in the placebo group [3] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Position - Amgen plans to submit a regulatory filing for Uplizna with the FDA by the first half of 2025, currently approved for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder [4] - A regulatory filing for Uplizna in immunoglobulin G4-related disease is under review, with a decision expected by April 3, 2025 [4] - Uplizna, part of Amgen's rare disease franchise, was acquired through the $28 billion purchase of Horizon Therapeutics in 2023 [9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The 52-week results from the MINT study provide Uplizna an advantage over competitors like argenx's Vyvgart and UCB's Rystiggo, which require weekly dosing, while Uplizna requires dosing every six months [8] - Uplizna has received orphan drug designation from the FDA for the gMG indication [8] Group 4: Stock Performance - Year to date, Amgen's shares have increased by over 20%, outperforming the industry growth of 6% [5]