本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 近期，英国百年资管巨头柏基投资（ Baillie Gifford）披露了最新美股持仓报告。 作为全球知名的 "成长股捕手"，柏基投资曾精准布局特斯 拉、英伟达、谷歌、亚马逊、奈飞以及阿里巴巴、腾讯、美团、宁德时代等多只科技巨头 。 其长期全球成长策略旗舰产品表现亮眼，不仅跑赢 标普 500与纳斯达克指数，也超越了巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔-哈撒韦 。 公开信息显示，以其旗舰产品苏格兰抵押贷款投资信托（SMT）基金为例， 2004年至2024年的20年间，该基金实现了13.64倍的总回报，年化 回报率约13.88%。这一业绩显著超越了同期标普500指数（6.98%）、纳斯达克指数（10.87%）以及巴菲特管理的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司 （10.02%）的年化回报率 。 根据美国证监会13F文件， 截至 2025年四季度末，柏基投资持仓总市值约1203.41亿美元，较三季度的1349.98亿美元下降10.86% 。前二十大重 仓股合计市值约740.92亿美元，占持仓总市值超六成。其中 英伟达为第一大重仓股，持股约 4387万股，持仓市值约81.81亿美元，占组 ...

Core Insights - The global consumer electronics sector has seen a decline of 10% since the end of September, while memory makers, including Samsung Electronics, have surged approximately 160% [1][17] - Current valuations in the market largely assume that supply disruptions will normalize within one to two quarters, but there are concerns that this tightness may persist longer [2][17] Industry Trends - Memory chip shortages and rising prices are frequently mentioned in earnings reports, indicating a significant impact on various companies [17] - Companies like Qualcomm and Nintendo have experienced stock declines due to concerns over memory constraints affecting production and profitability [5][17] - The demand for memory chips is being exacerbated by massive AI infrastructure spending, shifting production capacity towards high-bandwidth memory [8][17] Market Dynamics - Spot prices for DRAM have increased by over 600% in recent months, despite weak demand for end products like smartphones and cars [11][17] - Memory chip makers have emerged as significant winners in the tech sector, with companies like SK Hynix, Kioxia Holdings, and Nanya Technology seeing stock increases of over 150% to 400% since the end of September [12][17] - The current memory cycle is described as a "supercycle," breaking traditional boom-and-bust patterns, with no signs of demand momentum softening [9][13][17]

Group 1 - Amazon plans to launch a content trading platform for publishers to sell content to AI product companies, amid ongoing negotiations between publishers and AI companies regarding content usage for model training and user queries [2][8] - Publishers are increasingly seeking a pay-per-use model for content, arguing it is a more sustainable business model that can scale with the growth of AI usage [10][11] - AWS is hosting a publisher conference in New York, where it has distributed a presentation mentioning the new content platform alongside core AI tools like Bedrock and Quick Suite [2][8] Group 2 - Legal disputes have arisen as publishers, like Penske Media, sue companies like Google over revenue losses attributed to AI-generated summaries in search results [3][9] - Amazon reportedly pays over $20 million annually to The New York Times for using its content in Alexa, highlighting the existing fixed-fee agreements between Amazon and publishers [9] - Cloudflare and Akamai are set to provide tools by late 2025 to help publishers block AI crawlers from scraping content and charge AI companies for access, with AWS offering similar services [10]

亚马逊正计划建立一个全新的内容交易市场，连接出版商与人工智能开发商，为数字内容在AI时代的 货币化提供基础设施。 据知情人士向 The Information 透露，亚马逊已与出版业高管就该项目进行了讨论。该平台的核心逻辑 在于通过建立规范化的交易机制，允许出版商向提供AI产品的公司出售内容访问权。这一策略回应了 当前出版业的核心诉求：随着AI模型对优质数据的需求激增，内容创作者正寻求打破传统的"一次性买 断"模式，转而推动基于使用量的更可持续的付费机制。 该消息传出之际，正值科技巨头与出版商之间关于数据版权的博弈进入白热化阶段。出版商普遍担忧 AI聊天机器人和搜索摘要的兴起将导致导向其网站的搜索流量大幅下滑，进而侵蚀广告收入。上周， 微软已率先推出了连接出版商与AI买家的服务，而亚马逊网络服务（AWS）也定于本周二在纽约举办 一场面向出版商的大会，市场普遍预期该会议将披露更多关于内容交易平台的细节。 亚马逊此举不仅是对此前微软动作的回应，更是在其云计算霸主地位之上构建AI生态的关键一步。通 过整合AWS现有的云基础设施与新的内容授权机制，亚马逊意图在这一新兴的B2B市场中占据主导地 位，为寻求合规数据的AI ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 2026年02月10日 制造成长周报（第 46 期） 优于大市 事件 2-Spacex 宣布以全股票交易形式收购人工智能公司 xAI：2026 年 2 月 2 日，马斯克旗下的 Spaex（太空探索技术公司）正式宣布，以全股票交 易形式收购其人工智能公司 xAI。 事件 3-亚马逊 2026 年资本支出预计增长至 2000 亿美元：2026 年 2 月 5 日，亚马逊发布财报，表示正积极投资数据中心等基础设施以满足 AI 需求的激增，预计 2026 年投入约 2000 亿美元资本支出，同比增长超过 50%。 商业航天点评：SpaceX 收购人工智能公司 xAI，太空算力发展有望加速协同 发展，太空应用场景的落地将带动火箭发射需求，运力提速发展也将打开更 多应用场景。我们持续看好商业航天的长期投资机会，重点关注运力卡脖子 的火箭环节，优先看好 Spacex 产业链以及国内商业火箭产业链如蓝箭航天、 中科宇航等头部民营火箭产业链：1)火箭端重点关注重要结构件及 3D 打印 新应用：【华曙高科】【江顺科技】【南风股份】【应流股份】【龙溪股 份】；2）卫星端关注总装及检验检测 ...

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Projections - The four major cloud giants are expected to significantly increase capital expenditures in 2026, with Microsoft forecasting a higher growth rate than in 2025[2] - Meta's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $115 billion and $135 billion[2] - Google's capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated to be between $175 billion and $185 billion[2] - Amazon anticipates a capital expenditure of approximately $200 billion for 2026[2] Group 2: Market Concerns and Financial Performance - Following the earnings reports, stock prices of the four giants experienced declines, raising concerns about investment returns[2] - Amazon's operating cash flow for 2026 is projected to be insufficient to cover its capital expenditures, potentially leading to a cash flow deficit[2] - Analysts predict that 2026 will see a heightened focus on AI revenue growth and the ability of AI to create a commercial loop[2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Comparisons - The overall trading activity in the STAR Market decreased, with an average daily trading volume of approximately ¥241.32 billion, down from ¥318.02 billion the previous week[6] - The STAR Market's average PE ratio stands at 75.75, significantly higher than other major boards, indicating a premium valuation[10] - The technology sector's performance in the STAR Market was mixed, with the beauty care sector showing the highest weekly gain of +12.0% and the computer sector experiencing the largest decline of -7.4%[15]

With Netflix recently striking a deal to stream all films produced by Sony Pictures Entertainment globally after their theatrical release—and potentially moving to acquire the massive Warner Bros library—the niche, urban, English-language OTT space in India is bracing for a significant shake-up. As global catalogues consolidate under fewer platforms, industry experts believe these international shifts will fundamentally alter consumer choices in India, forcing rivals like Prime Video and JioHotstar to rethi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Amazon (AMZN.O) [2][4] Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 2025 revenue reached $213.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14%, with operating profit at $25 billion, up 18% year-over-year, and net profit at $21.2 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [1][5] - AWS revenue was $35.6 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 24%, exceeding consensus expectations [1] - For 2026, Amazon's capital expenditure guidance is projected at approximately $200 billion, significantly higher than market expectations, indicating a focus on balancing demand and capacity [1][5] - Long-term prospects remain strong due to improvements in e-commerce fulfillment efficiency, competitive pricing, and accelerated growth in cloud services, alongside increased investments in AI [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: $637.96 billion (2024), $716.92 billion (2025), $810.80 billion (2026E), $908.19 billion (2027E), and $1,014.42 billion (2028E), with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 12.4%, 13.1%, 12%, and 11.7% respectively [3][8] - Operating profit is expected to grow from $68.59 billion in 2024 to $145.04 billion in 2028, with significant growth rates, particularly in 2026 at 24.1% [3][9] - Net profit projections are $59.25 billion (2024), $77.67 billion (2025), $82.30 billion (2026E), $99.36 billion (2027E), and $118.74 billion (2028E), with a notable growth rate of 31.1% in 2025 [3][8] Stock Performance - The current stock price is $208.72, with a market capitalization of $228 billion [4] - The stock has shown absolute performance of 9.1% over the past month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [5]

Core Insights - The competition for AI leadership among major cloud providers is intensifying, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon leading in different segments of the AI stack [1] Microsoft (Azure) - In Q2 FY2026, Microsoft's Cloud revenue rose 26% to US$51.5 billion, driven by a 39% increase in Azure and other cloud revenue [2] - Microsoft's capital expenditure (CAPEX) surged 66% YoY to US$37.5 billion, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth [2] - The backlog for Azure reached US$625 billion, up 110% YoY, indicating strong demand for Azure services [3] - OpenAI contributed 45% to Microsoft's backlog, while the non-OpenAI segment grew 28% YoY, reflecting broad-based demand [3] - Microsoft is developing custom AI accelerators and integrating AI into its product suites, similar to Alphabet's strategy [3] - The company has extended the useful life of older GPUs through advanced software, akin to NVIDIA's CUDA approach [4] Alphabet (Google Cloud Platform - GCP) - In Q4 2025, Alphabet's Cloud revenue increased 48% YoY to US$17.7 billion, with GCP growing at an even higher rate [5] - Alphabet's CAPEX in Q4 2025 rose 95% YoY to US$27.9 billion, with total CAPEX for 2025 reaching US$91.4 billion [5] - GCP's backlog grew 55% sequentially to US$240 billion in Q4 2025, with projected CAPEX for 2026 expected to be US$175 billion to US$185 billion [6] - Revenue from GCP's AI products grew nearly 400% YoY in Q4 2025, with costs to run its AI models reduced by 78% [7] - 14 of Alphabet's AI-powered products have annual revenues exceeding US$1 billion, indicating significant adoption [8] Amazon (AWS) - AWS revenue surged 24% YoY to US$35.6 billion in Q4 2025, marking the fastest growth in 13 quarters [9] - Amazon's CAPEX reached US$39.5 billion in Q4 2025, a 42% YoY increase, with total CAPEX for 2025 at US$131.8 billion [9] - Projected CAPEX for 2026 is expected to be around US$200 billion, driven by demand for core and AI workloads [10] - Amazon's backlog increased 40% YoY to US$244 billion, reflecting strong demand [10] - AWS's Trainium and Graviton chips are generating a US$10 billion annual revenue run rate, growing at triple-digit percentages YoY [13] - Amazon Bedrock, a service for building AI applications, is utilized by over 100,000 companies and has a multi-billion-dollar annualized revenue run rate [13] - Amazon Connect reached a US$1 billion annualized revenue run rate in Q4 2025, growing at 30% YoY [13]

智通财经获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，美国总统特朗普领导下的美国联邦政府计划对 亚马逊(AMZN.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)以及微软(MSFT.US)等美国科技巨头们豁免于即将重磅出台的下 一轮对外芯片关税政策，主要因为这些大型科技公司正在大规模建设AI数据中心，而这一如火如荼的 AI投资进程与建设进程对于美国经济而言可谓至关重要。 知情人士强调，这些攸关芯片关税政策的特殊豁免政策将由美国商务部经过贸易调查之后进行豁免性质 的提供，并且与有着"芯片代工之王"称号的台积电(TSM.US)超过千亿美元在美国本土制造高性能AI芯 片以及其他3nm及以下制程最先进芯片制造与封装的大额投资承诺密切相关联。 不过知情人士强调，这项大规模关税豁免计划目前仍在调整中，尚未得到总统特朗普签字批准。 此前台积电在1月份的业绩电话会议中强调，这家全球最大规模的芯片代工制造商正在积极投资高达 1650亿美元，预计将在美国亚利桑那州建设多个大型芯片制造工厂，目前其中一座工厂已实现5nm芯片 美国本土产能。 AI数据中心建设进程对于美国经济有多重要? 毋庸置疑的是，AI数据中心建设已经从技术投资快速演进为宏观经济的重要 ...