Summary of the Conference Call on China Consumer Sector Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China consumer sector** with an emphasis on stock picking strategies for 2026E, balancing "value" vs "growth" investments [1][11] - Anticipation of a less inflationary environment and low expectations for immediate consumption boosts from government policies [1][11] Key Investment Themes 1. **Shift Towards Experience/Service Consumption** - Consumers are increasingly valuing emotional experiences over basic needs, seeking happiness and self-expression [2][23] - 66% of respondents in a survey indicated a willingness to spend more for special moments [23] - Notable examples include Pop Mart's affordable entertainment options and Haidilao's casual dining as social venues [2][23] 2. **Focus on Well-being** - Increased spending on wellness, including health, fitness, and nutrition [3] - Growth potential identified in sportswear (Anta), health supplements (H&H), beauty care (Mao Geping), and tourism (Atour) [3] 3. **Rising "Silver" Economy** - The aging population is creating demand for leisure and cultural experiences [4] - Industries like tourism (Atour, H World), sportswear (Anta), and health supplements (H&H) are expected to benefit [4] 4. **Emerging New Channels** - Growth in omni-channel operations and new offline channels such as membership stores and snack specialty chains [5] - Food companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are adapting to these changes [5] 5. **Multi-brand Strategy** - Industry leaders are expanding brand portfolios to meet diversified consumer demands [6] - Companies like Anta and Midea are revising growth targets to ease channel inventory pressure [6] Top Buys in Consumer Sector - **Consumer Discretionary**: Anta (2020.HK), Pop Mart (9992.HK), Haidilao (6862.HK), Atour (ATAT.O), Midea (300.HK) [1][14] - **Consumer Staples**: CR Beer (291.HK), Eastroc (605499.SS), Mao Geping (1318.HK) [1][14] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable profit growth amid a dynamic marketplace [1][11] - The analysis includes a pecking order of various consumer sub-sectors, highlighting the relative strengths of companies within those sectors [1][14] - The report also notes the potential for companies like Li Ning and Haitian to outperform in case of a better-than-expected recovery in consumption [1] Conclusion - The China consumer sector is poised for a transformation driven by changing consumer preferences towards emotional and experiential consumption, with significant opportunities identified across various industries and companies. The focus on well-being, the aging population, and the emergence of new channels are critical factors influencing investment strategies for 2026E [1][2][3][4][5][6]

Core Insights - The cultural tourism market is shifting from "sightseeing" to "cultural experiences," with cities like Dunhuang, Luoyang, and Quanzhou seeing a surge in visitor numbers and spending [1][5] - At the same time, Atour Group has opened its first hotel in Dunhuang, strategically located near popular local attractions, enhancing the accommodation market in the area [1][3] Group 1 - Dunhuang received 20.131 million visitors from January to August this year, a year-on-year increase of 15.87%, with tourism spending reaching 18.622 billion yuan, up 30.27% [1] - Atour's hotel in Dunhuang emphasizes the integration of cultural scenes and local life, providing guests with a unique experience that combines local culture with accessibility to major attractions [3][5] - The hotel features a wellness-focused breakfast system and amenities designed for deep rest, catering to modern travelers' demands for quality and refined living [3] Group 2 - Atour's expansion in Dunhuang is part of a broader strategy to establish a presence in core business districts and cultural tourism destinations, with recent openings in Fuzhou, Quanzhou, and Lushan [5] - This strategic approach allows Atour to maintain a steady growth pace while adapting to changing consumer trends in the cultural tourism market [5] - The focus on destination hotels is becoming a new competitive focal point for mid-to-high-end brands, with Atour's strategy showcasing a growth logic that balances quality standards with market demands [5]

Core Insights - Starbucks China has announced a partnership with Atour Group to launch a joint membership program, enhancing the benefits of the Star Enjoy Club [1][3] - The joint membership allows members to enjoy up to 360 days of Atour Gold membership benefits, including room upgrades, complimentary breakfasts, and late check-outs [1][6] - The collaboration aims to create a seamless "coffee + travel" experience for the 160 million Starbucks members in China [3][9] Membership Benefits - Members can easily bind their accounts through apps or WeChat mini-programs to access exclusive benefits such as room upgrades and complimentary breakfasts [4] - Starbucks Gold and Diamond members can enjoy up to 12 Atour Gold membership experiences, equivalent to 360 days of core benefits, including 36 breakfast vouchers and 36 late check-out vouchers [6] - Atour members can earn double stars when making purchases at Starbucks during their stay at Atour hotels [6][8] Future Plans - Starbucks plans to continue expanding its membership services and partnerships in the "coffee + travel" sector, aiming to enhance the overall member experience [9] - The company has established a four-tier membership system, allowing members to accumulate "gift stars" through daily purchases and activities, which can be redeemed for various rewards [9] - Starbucks has introduced a special day for members, "Star Day," to encourage engagement and reward accumulation [9] Company Background - Since entering China in 1999, Starbucks has been actively involved in the development of the premium coffee industry [10] - As of September 2023, Starbucks operates over 8,000 stores in China, covering more than 1,000 county-level markets [10] - Atour Group, established in 2013, has over 1,948 hotels and more than 108 million registered members as of September 2025 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks aims to differentiate its growth strategy amidst ongoing price wars and expansion in the Chinese coffee market by enhancing its membership offerings through partnerships with brands like Atour Group, Hilton, and China Eastern Airlines [2][4][11]. Group 1: Membership Strategy - Starbucks has announced a joint membership program with Atour Group, allowing members to enjoy benefits such as free room upgrades, free breakfast, and double points when using each other's services [2]. - The company has a significant membership base, with over 160 million members expected by November 2025, and 25 million active members within 90 days [5]. - The membership demographics of Starbucks and Atour show considerable overlap, targeting digital-savvy consumers who value efficiency in their purchases [5][6]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Starbucks has previously engaged in a price reduction strategy, but the adjustments were modest and selective, reflecting a careful approach to maintain brand integrity and profitability [4][15]. - The company operates 8,566 stores in China, while competitors like Luckin Coffee and Koolearn have significantly larger store counts, indicating a competitive landscape [14]. - Starbucks' sales from membership accounted for 74.4% of its revenue in the Chinese market for the fiscal year 2024, highlighting the importance of its membership strategy [10]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - High-value members contribute significantly to Starbucks' profits, with a strong inclination towards premium products, indicating a focus on high-margin items [9][10]. - The evolving consumer landscape in China shows a shift towards price sensitivity and a demand for quality experiences, which Starbucks must navigate carefully [19][20]. - The partnership strategy allows Starbucks to reduce customer acquisition costs by leveraging shared user bases, enhancing the value proposition for both brands [8]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Starbucks is exploring further enhancements to its membership system, including the introduction of a new tier, "Diamond Membership," to better segment its customer base and increase engagement [11]. - The company is also considering adjustments to its product pricing, offerings, and store models in response to market changes and consumer preferences [20]. - The collaboration with local capital through a joint venture may influence Starbucks' strategies in pricing and market penetration, particularly in lower-tier markets [20].

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new historical high, approaching the 50,000 mark, closing at 49,462.08 points, up 0.99% [3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 2.75%, setting a new historical high, with notable gains in chip stocks such as Microchip Technology up over 11%, Micron Technology up over 10%, and NXP Semiconductors up over 9% [5][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Fed should lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, as economic data trends may support further rate cuts [5] - Milan noted that core inflation has returned to around the Fed's 2% target, and he expects strong economic growth in the U.S. this year [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Silver prices surged again, with COMEX silver futures breaking the $80 per ounce mark, reflecting a rise of approximately 6% [8] - Gold prices also saw a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4,500 per ounce, up over 1% [8]

Group 1 - "爷爷的农场" International Holdings Limited submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a projected revenue of 622 million yuan in 2023 and 875 million yuan in 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the organic baby food sector [1] - The company is ranked first in the Chinese organic baby food market, highlighting the robust potential of this niche industry [1] - The IPO is expected to enhance market recognition of the sector's value and attract long-term investment in the baby economy and consumer segments [1] Group 2 - Nestlé announced a precautionary recall of infant formula in several European countries due to quality issues with a supplier's ingredient, emphasizing the importance of supply chain quality control [2] - The recall may pose challenges to Nestlé's brand reputation and could lead to a reassessment of risk management capabilities within the dairy sector [2] - This incident may dampen overall sentiment in the consumer sector, prompting investors to focus more on companies' risk management and operational stability [2] Group 3 - Starbucks China and Atour Group launched a joint membership program, aiming to enhance user engagement and repurchase rates through cross-industry collaboration [3] - The membership program is expected to cover all levels of members, with Starbucks China reaching over 160 million members by November 2025 [3] - This partnership represents a significant innovation in the retail and service sectors, potentially setting a positive example for future collaborations [3] Group 4 - Chengdu Blue Wind Group, the parent company of brands like "春娟" and "红玫瑰," has an estimated valuation of 210 million yuan based on the transfer of shares [4] - The valuation reflects the current market pricing of established daily chemical companies, despite having well-known brands under its umbrella [4] - This situation may accelerate the revaluation of the daily chemical sector, directing attention towards companies with strong brand rejuvenation capabilities and core competitiveness [4]

Core Insights - Starbucks China has partnered with Atour Group to launch a joint membership program, enhancing the benefits of the Starbucks membership club [1][3] - The collaboration aims to provide a comprehensive "coffee + travel" experience for Starbucks' 160 million members, offering practical travel benefits such as room upgrades and complimentary breakfasts [3][4] Membership Benefits - Members of both Starbucks and Atour can enjoy exclusive benefits, including up to 360 days of Atour Gold membership core benefits for Starbucks Gold and Diamond members [1][4] - Starbucks Gold members can receive up to 12 Atour Gold membership privileges, while Diamond members can upgrade some privileges to Atour Platinum membership, gaining additional benefits [4][5] - Atour members can earn Starbucks stars, which can be redeemed for various rewards, enhancing the value of the membership experience [5][6] Strategic Goals - The partnership reflects both companies' commitment to creating valuable travel experiences for customers, focusing on enhancing user satisfaction from daily life to travel [3][6] - Starbucks aims to continue expanding its membership offerings and partnerships in the "coffee + travel" sector, enhancing the overall quality of life for its members [6]

Core Insights - Starbucks China has announced a partnership with Atour Group to launch a joint membership program, enhancing the benefits of the Star Enjoy Club membership [1][4] - Members of the Star Enjoy Club can experience up to 360 days of Atour Gold Member core benefits, including perks like room upgrades, double breakfasts, and late check-outs [1][3] Membership Benefits - The membership system at Starbucks includes four tiers: Silver Star, Jade Star, Gold Star, and Diamond Star [3] - Gold Star members can receive up to 12 Atour Gold Member priority access rights, equivalent to 360 days of core benefits, and can earn up to 36 double breakfast vouchers and 36 late check-out vouchers [3] - Diamond Star members can upgrade three of their Atour Gold Member priority access rights to Atour Platinum Member rights, gaining additional benefits including up to 18 room upgrade vouchers [3] - Silver and Jade Star members can receive Atour discount vouchers and exclusive offers, enhancing the value of membership [3] Atour Member Benefits - Atour members can earn Starbucks rewards, with Black Gold members receiving 6 stars, Platinum members 3 stars, and Gold, Silver, and registered members 1 star upon binding their accounts [3] - During their stay at Atour hotels, members with Black Gold, Platinum, or Gold status can earn double stars when spending at designated Starbucks channels [3] - Atour has introduced a joint meal delivery robot featuring the joint membership theme, allowing guests to enjoy Starbucks coffee without leaving their rooms [3] Additional Perks - Starbucks offers additional benefits for members seeking quality travel experiences, including free in-flight Wi-Fi and complimentary medium-sized drinks [4] - Members can redeem stars for services such as concierge car transfers, airport lounges, and expedited security checks [4] Membership Growth - Starting in 2024, Starbucks plans to continue enhancing the Star Enjoy Club membership system, collaborating with Hilton Group and China Eastern Airlines for joint membership programs [4] - By November 2025, Starbucks China's membership base is expected to exceed 160 million, with 25 million active members within the last 90 days [4] - This partnership with Atour is part of Starbucks China's broader strategy to expand its membership offerings following the establishment of a joint venture with China’s Boyu Capital in November last year [4]

Group 1 - Starbucks China has announced a partnership with Atour Group to launch a joint membership program, allowing members to enjoy up to 360 days of Atour Gold membership benefits, including perks like room upgrades, double breakfasts, and late check-outs [1][2] - Members of the Starbucks Rewards program can earn double stars when they stay at designated Atour hotels and make purchases through specified Starbucks channels, with stars redeemable for various premium services [1][2] - The joint membership benefits will be available to all levels of members from both companies, who can link their accounts through apps or WeChat mini-programs to access exclusive rewards [2] Group 2 - Starting in 2024, Starbucks plans to collaborate with Hilton Group and China Eastern Airlines to introduce additional joint membership programs [2] - Starbucks entered the Chinese market in 1999 and currently operates over 8,000 stores across more than 1,000 county-level markets [2] - Atour Group, established in 2013, is projected to have 1,948 hotels by the end of September 2025, with multiple hotel brands under its umbrella, including A.T.HOUSE and Atour S Hotel [2]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，据星巴克中国官微1月6日消息，星巴克中国宣布与亚朵集团达成合作，推出联合会员计 划。此次星巴克与亚朵推出的联合会员权益将覆盖双方全等级会员。截至2025年11月，星巴克中国会员 规模已突破1.6亿，其中90天活跃会员达2500万。 ...