11月25日，亚朵集团(NASDAQ:ATAT)披露的2025年第三季度财务报告显示，报告期内，亚朵整体经营 指标保持稳健，营收同比增长38.4%，平均可出租客房收入(RevPAR)达371.3元，延续逐季改善态势。酒 店主业的稳定表现，与零售端的高增长共同构成了本季财务亮点，其中零售业务的增速仍然让行业关 注。 财报显示，三季度亚朵零售GMV达9.94亿元，同比增长75.5%，线上渠道占比持续超过90%。从增长曲 线来看，零售业务不仅保持了高增速，也在集团营收结构中承担了更重要的角色，成为推动整体增长的 重要动力。 深睡核心品类走强，"爆品效应"持续放大 作为亚朵零售的核心发力点，深睡品类在三季度持续展现市场竞争力。在枕头品类，深睡枕Pro3.0上市 仅25天即实现销售额破亿，较上一代产品破亿时间缩短19天。截至目前，深睡枕系列累计销量已超过 800万只，在电商平台持续位居枕头品类前列。 被子品类同样表现强劲。三季度推出的深睡控温被・四季Pro2.0与冬季Pro2.0，通过升级双层控温系 统，实现对睡眠微环境的动态调节，满足不同季节、不同体质用户的睡眠需求。截至目前，深睡控温被 系列累计销量已突破200万条 ...

Group 1: Atour Group's Strategic Milestone - Atour Group has achieved its three-year strategic goal of "China Experience, Two Thousand Good Stores," marking the opening of its 2000th hotel in Shangri-La, Yunnan [2][4] - The new hotel signifies not only geographical expansion but also a return to the brand's original mission of providing the best experience in the service industry [4][6] - The company has built a diverse brand matrix that includes hotels and retail scenes, covering over 100 million quality lifestyle members [2][6] Group 2: Collaboration between Chengdu Gifts and Kenyue Coffee - The collaboration between Chengdu Gifts and Kenyue Coffee has resulted in the launch of a themed concept store, emphasizing the integration of urban cultural IP with popular consumer brands [7][9] - This partnership aims to create a series of co-branded products that incorporate "Chengdu elements" into everyday consumption, enhancing local cultural representation [11] - The initiative is expected to strengthen brand recognition for Kenyue Coffee while allowing Chengdu Gifts to reach a younger consumer demographic, achieving mutual benefits in cultural dissemination and brand growth [11]

社服行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 国家政策支持内需扩张，老龄化和 Z 世代崛起驱动体验式、个性化消费， 康养旅游和新消费成投资重点。 旅游出行行业持续复苏，各地促销活动显著推动，景区产业资源整合加 速，行业向高质量发展。 OTA 平台占据旅游产业链重要地位，美团、携程等通过差异化竞争提升 盈利能力并巩固核心竞争力。 酒店行业与经济状况密切相关，需求分化下供给降速，头部企业具备溢 价能力，建议关注首旅锦江、华住及亚朵等龙头企业。 免税行业关注度提升，低基数效应下数据转正，高货值商品比例提升客 单价，海南封关及新政带来增长空间，关注中免、王府井及珠海免税。 本地生活领域竞争激烈，美团面临京东、阿里等竞争对手，长期价值回 归存在分歧，但仍是值得关注的重要标的。 K12 教育领域政策逐步稳定和市场复苏，龙头企业如好未来、新东方等 受益于品牌力、教学质量和扩张能力。 Q&A 2026 年服务业消费的投资机会有哪些？ 旅游出行行业在 2026 年的发展趋势如何？ 随着全球重新开放及复苏，旅游出行行业将继续回暖。无论是出境游还是国内 游，都处于持续复苏状态。各地文旅部门和 OTA 平台（如美团、携程 ...

亚朵品牌缘起地云南怒江边石月亮乡亚朵村 在追逐速度与规模的时代，亚朵选择将"内心安静的力量"带回城市，回归对人的关注，在旗下2000家酒店，以及进入数百万家庭的深睡产品 中，打造"身心和合"的体验：由静生和，由身及心，于细节处塑造安静与平和，将善意转化为温暖的连接。 三年战略目标的实现，是里程碑，也是新起点。亚朵集团表示，未来将聚焦生活方式体验升级，坚持质量优先的发展路径。"亚朵"在傈僳族语 中代表"月亮升起的地方"，亚朵集团将以"月亮"为喻，秉持"不盈之心"，在持续深化"中国体验"的道路上稳步前行。 香格里拉独克宗古城月光广场亚朵酒店 近日，亚朵集团宣布"中国体验两千好店"三年战略目标达成。第2000家酒店——云南香格里拉月光广场亚朵酒店启幕，标志着亚朵集团在规模 扩容与品牌升级上迈入了全新阶段。截至目前，亚朵集团已构建起涵盖酒店、零售场景，覆盖超1亿品质生活会员的多元品牌矩阵。 第2000家酒店落子于充满人文底蕴的香格里拉，是距离品牌缘起地"亚朵村"最近的亚朵酒店。这一布局不仅意味着地理版图的拓展，更是一场 回归初心之旅。亚朵自品牌创立之初，便提出做体验最好的服务品牌；酒店不仅是睡觉的地方；成为改变传统住 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption in 2026, highlighting a year of strategic layout and potential improvements in specific sectors and cycles [4][6][8] - The overall recovery of the service sector is characterized by a moderate rebound and structural prosperity, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption [11][12] - The report identifies three key changes affecting demand, policy, and technology, including a shift towards more rational consumer behavior, the impact of policy and globalization on corporate decisions, and accelerated technological iterations [11][4][6] Group 2 - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on boosting domestic demand, with significant potential for service consumption in China compared to developed countries [19][26] - The report outlines specific sub-sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and education, which are expected to perform differently based on demand and supply dynamics [7][8][34] - Recommendations include focusing on cyclical recovery and sector-specific prosperity, with suggested investments in companies like China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and Meituan [4][34][8] Group 3 - The report notes that the service sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 14.55%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index [14][12] - Structural trends indicate that leading companies in tea drinks and hotels have outperformed, while duty-free and hotel stocks have shown strength in the fourth quarter [14][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy measures aimed at enhancing service consumption, including various initiatives to stimulate demand and improve the consumer environment [26][28][27]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.71% and a notable outflow of southbound funds amounting to approximately 3.4 billion HKD on December 29 [2][3] - The precious metals market experienced a sharp sell-off, particularly in gold and silver, with spot gold falling below 4,480 USD per ounce and silver futures witnessing a maximum intraday drop of 15% [3][4] - The automotive sector emerged as a bright spot, driven by government initiatives to boost consumption, with notable gains in stocks such as NIO, XPeng, and BYD [3] Company Analysis - The report covers Atour Group (ATAT.US), a mid-to-high-end hotel chain that integrates lifestyle retail into the guest experience, reporting revenues of 7.25 billion CNY for 2024 and 7 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 55% and 35.6% respectively [6][8] - Net profits for Atour were reported at 1.275 billion CNY and 1.14 billion CNY for the same periods, showing strong growth rates of 73% and 20.7% [6][8] - The company has a differentiated positioning in the mid-to-high-end market, targeting a price range of 400-800 CNY per night, with unique hotel designs and services that enhance guest experience [6][7] - Atour's membership program has seen explosive growth, increasing from 25 million members in 2020 to over 100 million by September 2025, which aids in customer retention and reduces acquisition costs [7] - The franchise model is the primary growth strategy for Atour, with 98.7% of its 1,948 hotels being franchise locations, enhancing profitability and capital efficiency [7] - Retail operations have become a significant growth driver, with revenue from retail increasing from 64 million CNY in 2019 to 2.2 billion CNY in 2024 [7][8] - The hotel industry is experiencing a strong rebound, with a 38% increase in revenue to 531.4 billion CNY in 2023, although growth is expected to slow to 5% in 2024 [8] - The report anticipates continued growth for Atour, projecting net profits of 1.62 billion CNY, 2.06 billion CNY, and 2.5 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 2.12, and 2.57 USD [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Atour Group with a target price of $51.2 [4][5]. Core Insights - Atour Group is positioned as a mid-to-high-end hotel chain, integrating lifestyle retail into the guest experience, with significant revenue growth and strong profit margins [2][12]. - The company has seen robust growth in both hotel and retail segments, with a projected net profit of RMB 16.2 billion, RMB 20.6 billion, and RMB 25.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][10]. - The membership system has expanded significantly, with membership numbers growing from 25 million in 2020 to over 100 million by September 2025, enhancing customer retention and reducing acquisition costs [2][55]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Atour Group operates a diverse portfolio of hotel brands and retail offerings, focusing on high-quality service and unique experiences, with a market share of approximately 6% in the mid-to-high-end hotel sector [12]. - As of September 2025, Atour has 1,948 hotels, predominantly through a franchise model, which enhances profitability and operational efficiency [2][59]. Investment Highlights - **Differentiated Hotel Positioning**: Atour targets a price range of RMB 400-800 per night, avoiding competition in the budget segment while not being fully penetrated by luxury brands [33]. - **Active Membership Ecosystem**: The A-Card membership system has proven effective in driving customer loyalty, with a high repurchase rate of 58.3% in 2022 [51][55]. - **Franchise Model**: The company primarily operates through a franchise model, which allows for rapid expansion with lower capital investment [59]. Industry Analysis - The hotel industry in China is experiencing a strong rebound, with a 38% increase in revenue in 2023, although growth is expected to slow to 5% in 2024 [3]. - The mid-to-high-end market share is increasing, with a trend towards consolidation and multi-brand strategies among leading companies [3]. Financial Performance - Atour's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 9.73 billion, with a growth rate of 34.3% [10]. - The company has maintained a strong gross margin, with net profit margins expected to stabilize around 16.6% in 2025 [10][20]. Retail Business Growth - The retail segment has seen explosive growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 254 million in 2022 to RMB 2.198 billion in 2024, driven by popular products like the Deep Sleep Pillow [30].

Core Viewpoint - The home textile industry in China is transitioning from growth driven by wedding and real estate demands to a focus on daily replacement and quality upgrades, with online sales channels rapidly increasing their market share [2][4][5]. Industry Growth and Market Dynamics - The Chinese home textile market is projected to reach approximately 327.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable growth forecast of low single-digit percentages in the coming years [4][5]. - Daily replacement and quality upgrades are becoming the main drivers of demand, as the industry matures and consumer preferences shift [11][21]. - E-commerce sales are expected to rise from 14% in 2019 to 34% by 2024, highlighting the growing importance of online channels [12][4]. Consumer Behavior and Product Innovation - There is an increasing consumer focus on sleep health, which is driving demand for functional bedding products [21][22]. - Pillows are becoming a priority for consumers due to their lower price point and higher replacement frequency, facilitating market growth for innovative products [22][23]. - New brands, such as Atour, are capitalizing on this trend by offering functional sleep products and leveraging online marketing strategies [23][24]. Traditional Brands and Market Strategies - Established brands like Luolai and Mercury are responding to new market dynamics by launching functional sleep products and enhancing their marketing efforts [30][35]. - Traditional brands are beginning to adopt a "big product" strategy, focusing on fewer, high-impact items to drive sales growth [30][32]. - The supply chain capabilities of traditional brands are becoming increasingly important as they expand into higher-end products [37]. Competitive Landscape and Market Concentration - The market concentration in the home textile industry remains low, with the top five brands holding only 3.7% of the market share in 2024 [17][20]. - Atour has rapidly increased its market share from 0.1% in 2022 to approximately 0.7% in 2024, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [17][20]. - Traditional brands are gradually improving their market positions through enhanced online and offline channel strategies [20][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [42]. Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure policy is expected to significantly boost the tourism and hotel sectors, leading to a surge in market expectations for Hainan tourism. There has been a substantial year-on-year increase in flight and hotel bookings for the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, particularly in Sanya, where the demand for cross-year travel is notably high. The hotel and tourism sectors have shown strong performance, leading the consumer services industry, reflecting positive market expectations for the long-term benefits of the closure policy [4][34]. - The report identifies several key investment opportunities, including hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resource services with clear industry trends, the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, and internet platforms integrating online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 2.66%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a decline of 0.15%. The CSI 300 index also fell by 0.28%, while the consumer services index rose by 3.76% [7][24]. - The report highlights that the hotel sector saw a weekly increase of 2.70%, while the tourism and scenic areas sector increased by 3.42% [18]. Notable Announcements - Key announcements include a report from Beijing Human Resources showing a shareholding reduction by a major shareholder and a significant increase in revenue and net profit for China Education Holdings [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The service industry is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out after experiencing price pressure and same-store sales decline in 2024, with expectations for recovery in 2026, particularly in sub-sectors like hotels and duty-free [2][17]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The service consumption ratio is increasing, supported by improved infrastructure for chain operations, leading to the emergence of more quality brands [4][21]. - The government has introduced multiple policies to promote service consumption, indicating a potential for stronger recovery in domestic demand [18][20]. - The hotel sector is expected to see a rebalancing of supply and demand in 2026, with RevPAR stabilizing due to a low base and slowing supply growth [4][31]. Group 2: Sub-sector Analysis - **Hotels**: The hotel industry faced pressure from weak business travel demand and continued supply expansion, but RevPAR showed signs of recovery in October 2025, driven by ADR increases [26][33]. - **Duty-Free**: Duty-free sales are stabilizing, with a focus on the potential of new policies to boost sales from departing travelers and local residents [45][49]. - **Dining**: The dining sector is experiencing a controlled competitive environment, with affordable brands performing relatively well amidst a recovering landscape [36][44]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies that can effectively meet consumer demands for value and emotional satisfaction, possess strong operational capabilities, and capture sustainable growth drivers are likely to succeed [4][29]. - The focus on high-quality brands and those with strong internal capabilities is expected to yield better performance in the coming years [4][21]. Group 4: Market Performance - In 2025, companies like Gu Ming and Mi Xue have shown significant stock performance, indicating a trend where companies with strong growth potential outperform their peers [7][12]. - The overall market for the service sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with structural opportunities emerging in the hotel and duty-free segments [6][31].