高途（GOTU.US） 更新报告 收入延续稳健增长，AI + 线下双轮驱动盈利改善 FY25Q4 业绩概览：截至 25 年 12 月 31 日，FY25Q4 公司收入同比+21.4% 至 16.85 亿元人民币（下同），略超此前指引上限 16.48 亿元；Non-GAAP 经营亏损 1.11 亿元，去年同期经营亏损 1.49 亿元，环比收窄 19%；Non- GAAP 净亏损为 0.77 亿元，去年同期为亏损 1.24 亿元；公司按可比口径现 金收款同比增长 19.1%，达 21.6 亿元。截至 FY25Q4，公司在现金及等价物 为 39.7 亿元，无有息负债。 表：盈利摘要 股价表现 资料来源：公司资料，第一上海预测 资料来源：彭博 买入 2026 年 3 月 12 日 李卓群 教育业务保持稳健增长，利润率持续扩张：分业务看，FY25Q3 公司 非学科培训及传统业务（K12 业务）占总收入约 80%，占据主要地位，其中 非学科培训业务保持强劲增长势头，收入同比+45%以上，可比口径现金收款 同比+30%，在线业务在读扩大，产品竞争力提升，利润率持续扩张，全年实 现中等个位数的利润率，续保率本季度超过 75% ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4979 期 2026 年 3 月 13 日 星期五 研究观点 【公司研究】 高途（GOTU，买入）：收入延续稳健增长，AI + 线下双轮驱动盈利改善 【公司评论】 博雷顿（1333，未评级）：矿山一站式绿色与智能作业综合解决方案 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 高途（美元） | GOTU | 买入 买入 4.00 | 4.20 | -5% | (1.465) | (1.820) | 20% | (0.122) | 0.644 | -119% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱： ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4978 期 2026 年 3 月 12 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司研究】 HIMS & HERS HEALTH（HIMS.US，买入）：持续扩展新领域和全球化，诺和撤回诉讼 【公司评论】 长芯博创（300548，未评级）：谷歌 AI 投资核心受益者，品类扩张潜力巨大 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | HIMS & HERS HEALTH(美 | HIMS | | | | | | | | | | | 元） | | 买入 买入 31.10 | 56.80 | -45 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - Tencent has launched the "Shrimp Farming" intelligent agent matrix, aiming to lower the deployment threshold for open-source agents through multi-dimensional products, targeting personal users, developers, and enterprise clients [2][3]. - The personal assistant "QClaw" allows users to remotely control PCs via WeChat, focusing on office automation and emphasizing user permission management [3]. - Tencent Cloud introduced AI-driven gaming solutions at GDC 2026, including a new multimedia engine and a 3D asset generation engine, enhancing its competitive edge in the global gaming developer ecosystem [4]. - Tencent Video has entered the video podcasting space with a revenue-sharing model, aiming to attract content creators and optimize platform content structure amid slowing long video member growth [5]. Company Overview - Tencent's total share capital is 91.06 billion, with a 52-week high of 683 HKD and a low of 414.5 HKD, and a net asset value per share of 141.00 HKD [6]. - The current stock price is 553.5 HKD, with a market capitalization of 5.04 trillion HKD [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $31.1, indicating a potential upside of 41% from the current price of $22.16 [2][5][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 59% year-over-year, with Q4 revenue reaching $620 million, although gross margin decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 71.9% [3]. - The company is expanding its subscription base, with a 13% increase in subscribers to 2.51 million, and a 31% increase in personalized subscription users [4]. - The company is actively acquiring new businesses, including the purchase of Eucalyptus for $1.15 billion, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [4]. - The company has settled a lawsuit with Novo Nordisk and is transitioning to sell the original brand of GLP-1 drugs, which is projected to have a market size of $100-150 billion by 2030 [5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company reported revenues of $2.35 billion, with a net profit of $128 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $318 million, reflecting an EBITDA margin of 13.5% [7]. - The company forecasts revenues of $2.79 billion for 2026, with a projected net profit of $56 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $259 million [7]. - The company’s international revenue reached $140 million in 2025, with expectations to exceed $1 billion in three years [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - Tencent has launched the "Shrimp Farming" intelligent agent matrix, aiming to lower the deployment threshold for open-source agents through a multi-dimensional product strategy [2][3]. - The personal assistant "QClaw" allows users to remotely control PCs via WeChat, focusing on office automation and emphasizing user permission management [3]. - Tencent Cloud introduced AI-driven gaming solutions at GDC 2026, including a new multimedia engine and a 3D asset generation engine, enhancing its competitive edge in the global gaming developer ecosystem [4]. - Tencent Video has entered the video podcasting space with a revenue-sharing model, aiming to attract content creators and optimize platform content structure amid slowing long video membership growth [5]. Summary by Sections Personal User Strategy - Tencent's personal user strategy includes the launch of lightweight intelligent agents like WorkBuddy and QClaw, focusing on "zero-code" automation [2][3]. Developer Engagement - For developers, Tencent provides OpenClaw application templates through Tencent Cloud, enabling rapid deployment and continuous operation [2]. Enterprise Solutions - The enterprise solution leverages the ADP platform for quick deployment and integrates with Tencent's knowledge base, addressing the challenge of AI understanding business needs [2][3]. Gaming Solutions - Tencent Cloud's new gaming solutions include the GMES engine and HY 3D engine, which facilitate high-quality 3D asset generation, enhancing its B2B commercialization strategy [4]. Content Monetization - The introduction of a fixed revenue-sharing model for video podcasts marks Tencent's shift from a copyright-driven to an ecosystem-driven approach, aiming to improve user retention and open new advertising opportunities [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - Changxin Bochuang is positioned as a leading supplier of optoelectronic connection solutions, targeting data centers, telecommunications, and industrial interconnect sectors. The company enhances its market competitiveness driven by AI computing demand through the acquisition of a controlling stake in Changxin Sheng [4][5]. - The company is a key beneficiary of Google's AI investments, with its subsidiary Changxin Sheng being a supplier to Google. This long-term partnership lays a solid foundation for expanding product categories, including MPO connectors, AOC connectors, and optical modules, which are expected to see significant growth in revenue [5][6]. - The potential for category expansion is substantial, with the company’s MPO connector business achieving significant revenue in 2025 and expected to double in the coming years. New products like AOC and optical modules are in client testing and are anticipated to contribute to market space expansion [6][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Changxin Bochuang focuses on providing solutions in the optoelectronic connection field, primarily serving data centers, telecommunications, and industrial interconnect sectors. The company has transitioned from passive components to a comprehensive supply chain through the acquisition of Changxin Sheng [17][18]. Business Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 320 to 370 million RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 344% to 413%. The main profit source is the controlling subsidiary Changxin Sheng, with expectations of exceeding 500 million RMB in total revenue for 2025 [8][12]. - The MPO supply is expected to continue growing, with projections for AOC and optical modules to begin small-scale supply in 2026, leading to further profit growth [11][12]. Competitive Advantage - The parent company, Longfly Optical, holds a 19% stake in Changxin Bochuang, providing a competitive edge through upstream and downstream collaboration. This relationship is expected to enhance cost advantages and supply capabilities, especially in the context of global fiber shortages [7][22]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for data center-related products, with a significant improvement in gross margins as these products gain traction in the market [25][27].

Company Overview - Broadcom (AVGO) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 450.00, reflecting a 36.17% upside from the current price of USD 330.48[5] - The company has a market capitalization of USD 1.6 trillion and has issued 4.741 billion shares[5] Financial Performance - Q1 2026 total revenue reached USD 19.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of USD 19.26 billion[7] - Gross margin remained stable at 68.1%, with adjusted EBITDA profit of USD 13.13 billion, up 30.3% year-on-year[7] - Non-GAAP net profit was USD 10.19 billion, a 30.2% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding consensus expectations[7] AI Revenue Growth - AI revenue in Q1 2026 grew by 110% to USD 8.4 billion, with custom chip revenue accounting for 67% and networking revenue for 33%[8] - The company expects AI revenue to reach USD 10.7 billion in the next quarter, representing a 143% year-on-year growth[8] - Broadcom has a backlog of USD 73 billion, with over 50% attributed to AI chip orders, expected to be delivered over the next six quarters[8] Future Projections - Forecasts indicate that AI revenue could reach USD 58.5 billion in FY 2026 and USD 106.2 billion in FY 2027[8] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63.0% for net profit over the next three years, projecting net profits of USD 43.2 billion, USD 76.5 billion, and USD 100.2 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively[10] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected AI demand growth, challenges in future acquisitions, increased market competition, and macroeconomic policy risks[11]

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 3 月 9 日 【公司评论】 张铁言 852-25321539 tieyan.zhang@firstshanghai.com.hk AXT, Inc.（AXTI）：磷化铟（InP）衬底双寡头，上游"卖铲人"卡位 AI 光互联；出口许可是短期最大扰动与催化 | 行业 | 半导体材料 | 公司定位：化合物半导体衬底龙头，InP 全球双寡头之一 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股价 | 38.80 美元 | | | | 21.44 亿美元 | | | 市值 | | 稳居全球第二。 | | 已发行股本 | 5340 万股 | | | 52 周高/低 | 47.03/1.13 美元 | | | 每股净现值 | 6.03 美元 | 形成竞争优势 | AXT 核心产品为磷化铟（InP）、砷化镓（GaAs）与锗（Ge）衬底晶圆，其中 InP 是 AI 数据中心高速光连接（光模块/激光器/探测器）的关键上游材料。行业格局 高度集中：根据 Yole 口径，InP Top3 为住友电工 42%、AXT36%、JX 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $1184, indicating a potential upside of 20.4% from the current price of $983.26 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience rapid growth in 2026, driven primarily by the high growth of its drug, Tirzepatide, despite anticipated pricing pressures and stagnation or decline in sales of some mature products [2]. - The revenue for Q4 2025 increased by 42.6% year-over-year to $19.29 billion, with total sales up 46%, although partially offset by a 5% decrease in prices [2]. - The company forecasts a revenue growth of 23%-27% in 2026, reaching $80-83 billion, and an EPS increase of 46%-53% to $33.5-$35.0 [2]. Segment Performance - **Metabolic Segment**: Q4 2025 revenue grew by 59.1% to $14.49 billion, accounting for 75% of total revenue. Tirzepatide's revenue surged by 115% to $11.67 billion, with a 48% market share in prescriptions in the U.S. [3]. - **Neuroscience Segment**: Revenue increased by 17% to $460 million, driven by heightened awareness of Alzheimer's disease and strong sales of Kisunla, which reached $110 million [3]. - **Immunology Segment**: Revenue rose by 19.4% to $1.54 billion, with TALTZ sales nearing peak levels [3]. - **Oncology Segment**: Revenue grew by 2.2% to $2.61 billion, with Verzenio's sales slightly increasing [3]. - **Other Segments**: Revenue increased by 0.7% to $190 million [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a GAAP net profit of $6.64 billion for Q4 2025, a 50.5% increase year-over-year, with an EPS of $7.39, up 51.4% [2]. - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of $34.12 billion, with a projected increase to $81.60 billion by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 25.2% [5][6]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 15.4% in 2023 to 37.5% in 2026 [6].