新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4961 期 2026 年 2 月 9 日 星期一 研究观点 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：AI 应用叙事强化，算力 CAPEX 持续上调 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：AI 应用叙事强化，算力 CAPEX 持续上调 +852-2532 1954 chen.huang@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 TMT 2026 年以来，AI 应用叙事强化，而传统 SaaS 软件行业则迎来集体逆风。事件起 源于 Anthropic 发布一款面向企业法务的插件工具。据介绍，新工具可以自动化 处理合同审查、保密协议分类处理、简报撰写、模板化回复等多项法律工作，引 发了市场对 AI 颠覆传统 SaaS 行业的担 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's stock price experienced a significant drop due to rumors regarding an increase in value-added tax, which was later clarified to not affect Tencent's core business, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [2]. - Tencent's AI initiatives are advancing, with the launch of a technical blog by the chief AI scientist, showcasing a new benchmark that addresses the limitations of current models in real-time learning, which could enhance Tencent's competitive edge in AI applications [3]. - The "Yuanbao" app has gained significant traction, reaching the top of the App Store with an estimated peak daily active users (DAU) exceeding 20 million, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [4]. - The return of the mobile version of "QQ Classic Farm" is expected to activate long-tail users and contribute an estimated revenue of 1 to 2 billion yuan in its first year, reflecting Tencent's strategy to leverage classic IPs for user engagement [5]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - Tencent's stock price fell below 600 HKD due to market misinterpretation of tax changes, but the fundamentals remain intact, presenting a low-cost entry point for investors [2]. AI Developments - The launch of the CL-bench benchmark by Tencent's AI team aims to improve real-time learning capabilities, marking a shift from merely chasing parameters to defining paradigms in AI [3]. App Performance - The "Yuanbao" app's success in the App Store indicates a strong user engagement strategy, although concerns about user retention in the WeChat ecosystem remain [4]. Game Strategy - The reintroduction of "QQ Classic Farm" aims to activate dormant users and is projected to generate significant revenue, showcasing Tencent's focus on mobile adaptations of classic games [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a focus on the company, indicating that it is undervalued with a reasonable valuation range of over HKD 25 billion [21]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from traditional generic drugs to a dual-driven strategy focusing on "aesthetic medicine and innovative drugs," leading to a significant revenue increase in the aesthetic segment [21]. - The aesthetic medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 81% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, contributing significantly to the company's overall revenue growth [4][11]. - The innovative drug segment is expected to enter a revenue realization phase with the commercialization of new drugs, enhancing the company's financial outlook [12][16]. Summary by Sections Aesthetic Medicine - In H1 2025, aesthetic medicine revenue increased by 81% to HKD 5.9 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 8 percentage points to 73% [4][11]. - The core product, Letybo (botulinum toxin), has a market penetration of less than 2% in China, indicating substantial growth potential compared to higher penetration rates in the US and South Korea [5]. - The company has three major products approved in 2025, including facial fillers and water light needles, which are expected to drive significant sales growth [9][10]. Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug segment reported a 30% revenue increase to HKD 0.17 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on gastrointestinal and oncology treatments [12]. - The company has successfully commercialized its first innovative PPI drug, which is expected to maintain its price in the national basic medical insurance directory [12][14]. - The company holds a 49.13% stake in Xuan Zhu Bio, which has a market capitalization of HKD 34.5 billion, further enhancing its financial position [12]. Biopharmaceuticals - The biopharmaceutical segment, focusing on diabetes, has a comprehensive pipeline with over 20 products, and revenue is expected to see explosive growth in the next 2-3 years [17][18]. - The company reported a 40-fold increase in revenue to HKD 0.39 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on insulin and innovative diabetes treatments [17][18]. Generic Drugs - Generic drug revenue decreased by 16% to HKD 5.0 billion in H1 2025, accounting for 44% of total revenue, but the impact is expected to lessen as aesthetic and innovative drug segments grow [19]. - Key products include Clinao (a unique injection) and a mucosal solution for children, which are positioned to capture niche markets [19]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by aesthetic and innovative drugs, alongside reduced R&D expenses [20]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 89% in H1 2025, reflecting strong cash flow management [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla with a target price of $520.00, representing a 23% upside from the current price of $421.90 [3][5]. Core Insights - Tesla is accelerating the expansion of its Robotaxi fleet and moving towards large-scale AI and autonomous driving solutions. The Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, is set to begin production in April 2026, which is expected to significantly optimize cost per mile and increase utilization [5][29]. - By the end of 2026, Tesla aims to have its Robotaxi service operational in 25-50% of the U.S. market, with over 500 vehicles already deployed in the Bay Area and Austin [5][29]. - The company is transitioning to a subscription model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) service, which currently has nearly 1.1 million paid users, representing a 12% penetration rate among existing vehicles [5][35]. - Tesla plans to invest $2 billion in xAI to enhance its AI capabilities, which will integrate with its vehicle ecosystem [5][31]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Tesla's total revenue is projected to be $97.69 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.95% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to grow significantly in the following years, reaching $176.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is estimated at $7.96 billion, with a projected increase to $17.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - The report indicates that Tesla's automotive gross margin is expected to recover to 17.9% in the fourth quarter, with a focus on improving production efficiency and cost management [10][12]. Production and Capacity - Tesla plans to cease production of the Model S and Model X in early 2026 to repurpose the production lines for the Cybertruck, with a long-term production target of 1 million units annually [5][26]. - The Cybercab is expected to become the highest volume model in the long term, although initial production ramp-up may be slow due to the use of new customized components [5][29]. - Tesla's global production capacity is projected to exceed 2.35 million units, with significant expansions planned in Texas and Nevada [5][26]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, estimating Tesla's revenue for 2026 to 2028 at $114 billion, $141 billion, and $176 billion, respectively. The calculated fair stock price of $520.00 corresponds to a 166x multiple of projected Non-GAAP earnings per share for 2026 [5][33].

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4960 期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 星期五 研究观点 【公司研究】 新东方（EDU.US/9901.HK）FY26Q2 业绩表现超预期，全年收入指引上调 【公司评论】 四环医药(460.HK）：仿制药触底中，轩竹生物成功分拆，创新药进入收获期，惠升生 物布局糖尿病全管线也迎来成果兑现，医美肉毒素和新品大品种带动高速增长 评级变化 | 公司 | 评级 代码 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新 旧 | 新 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 新东方（美元） | EDU 买入 买入 78.00 | 74.50 | 5% | 0.230 | 0.230 | 0% | 0.310 | 0.300 | 3% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4959 期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司研究】 特斯拉（TSLA，买入）：Robotaxi 车队加速扩张，AI 生态与自动驾驶迈向规模化 台积电（TSM,买入）：下游需求驱动资本开支强劲增长，未来 5 年 AI 收入 CAGR 超 58% 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 【行业评论】 互联网行业周报 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 特斯拉（美元） | TSLA | 买入 买入 520.00 | 520.00 | 0% | 26.000 | 2.100 | 1138% | 32.100 | 2.80 ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4957 期 2026 年 2 月 3 日 星期二 研究观点 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First call 一月回顾与二月前瞻 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First call 一月回顾与二月前瞻 图表 1：First call 组合明细 资料来源：第一上海 图表 2：组合收益统计 | 累计收益率(2025.10-至今) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | First Call | QQQ | SPY | | 17% | 4.48% | 4.87% | 第一上海 新力量 New Force | | | | | | | | First Call月度收益率 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2] Core Insights - Tencent is undergoing a strategic transformation driven by AI, with a focus on organizational restructuring and cloud business profitability milestones. The CEO, Ma Huateng, emphasized that AI is the only area worth significant investment at this time, and the company has successfully transitioned to self-developed products [2][3] - The launch of the "Yuanbao" project marks a significant step in Tencent's "AI + social" strategy, aiming to enhance user engagement through integrated social features and AI capabilities. Tencent plans to invest 1 billion yuan to promote this initiative, targeting exponential growth in AI user numbers during the 2026 Spring Festival [3] - Tencent's gaming business is thriving, with overseas revenue exceeding 10 billion USD, accounting for approximately 30% of total gaming revenue. The company has regained confidence in its core gaming operations, providing stable cash flow and growth potential [4] - In response to challenges in the short drama sector, Tencent Video is shifting towards an "advertising-driven" model while maintaining high-quality long-form content. The company has already produced several successful short drama projects and is exploring new ways to balance content depth and traffic efficiency [5] Summary by Sections Strategic Overview - Tencent's current strategy focuses on AI-driven organizational restructuring and achieving profitability in its cloud business, with a clear commitment to investing in AI technologies [2] AI Initiatives - The "Yuanbao" project represents a critical advancement in Tencent's AI and social strategy, integrating various social features and aiming for significant user growth through substantial promotional investments [3] Gaming Performance - Tencent's gaming division is performing robustly, with a notable increase in overseas revenue, showcasing the company's strong competitive advantage and ability to adapt to market changes [4] Content Strategy - Tencent Video is adapting to market pressures by transitioning to an advertising-driven model while continuing to invest in high-quality content, aiming to leverage its large user base for enhanced revenue generation [5]

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 1 月 27 日 【公司评论】 但玉翠 852 2532 1539 tracy.dan@firstshanghai.com.hk 管理团队介绍 加科思的核心管理团队以创始人王印祥博士为核心，王印祥博士于 1999 年获得美国 阿肯色大学医学院生物化学及分子生物学博士学位，耶鲁大学的 Koleske 实验室分子 生物物理和生物化学系完成了博士后研究。2003 年 1 月共同创立了浙江贝达药业有 限公司，是贝达药业的创始人之一。王博拥有 20 多年小分子抗肿瘤药研发经验，曾 主导中国第一款靶向抗肿瘤药埃克替尼（凯美纳）的研发与上市。加科思目前管理团 队一半来自贝达药业，另一半为公司成立后引入的来自大药企和顶尖医院的各类人 才。25 年 11 月为推进全球化战略引入了联席首席执行官（Co-CEO）制度，联席 CEO、首席医学官(CMO) 王宜 (Andrea Wang-Gillam) 博士 20 年 7 月加入加科思，在 美国有 20 余年肿瘤医生经验，她在圣路易斯华盛顿大学医学中心担任肿瘤科副教 授，并曾兼任消化道 ...

Portfolio Performance - The portfolio net value increased from 1.000 in September 2025 to 1.175 by January 23, 2026, reflecting a growth of 17.5%[5] - The portfolio volatility was recorded at 11.16% in January 2026, compared to 8.60% in October 2025[5] Adjustments in Holdings - The total storage position was reduced from 17% to 12% due to anticipated volatility from upcoming earnings reports from major companies[6] - The allocation for non-ferrous metals was adjusted to 15%, while nuclear power was increased to 18%[6] - A new position of 2% was established in the commercial aerospace core stock, RKL[6] Macro Observations - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) showed a year-to-date increase of 17.09%[7] - The VIX index, indicating market volatility, rose by 2.88% recently, suggesting increased market uncertainty[7] - Gold prices increased by 1.35%, reflecting a 80.10% rise over the past year[7] Energy Sector Insights - The U.S. electricity demand is projected to triple from 200 TWH to 640 TWH by 2035, indicating a significant increase in energy needs[7] - The report highlights a structural change in the U.S. electricity system, emphasizing the need for stable policies and supply chains for nuclear energy[7] Market Trends - The report notes a significant rise in rare earth companies, with CRML increasing by nearly 200% and USAR by 108% in three weeks, indicating speculative market behavior[9] - The market is characterized by a shift towards smaller-cap stocks, with larger companies showing stagnant performance, raising concerns about market stability[9]