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新东方-S:业绩受东方甄选影响,下期指引增速放缓
第一上海证券· 2025-02-07 07:42
业绩概览:截止 24 年 11 月 30 日,公司 FY25Q2 净收入同比+19.4%至 10.4 亿美元(美元计,下同),剔除东方甄选自营产品及电商业务实现 营收同比+31.3%至 8.94 亿美元。符合此前公司业绩指引(+25%至 +28%)。经营净利润 0.19 亿美元,同比-9.8%;Non-GAAP 经营利润 0.28 亿美元,同比-45.8%;归母利润 0.32 亿美元,同比+6.2%。Non- GAAP 归母净利润为 0.36 亿美元,同比-29.1%。利润下滑主要是受到子 公司东方甄选剥离"与辉同行"影响。 教育业务总体保持良好,新业务增速略有放缓:截至 FY25Q2 末,公 司学校及学习中心数 1,143 间,环比增加 54 间。FY25Q2 海外考试准备 和出国咨询业务同比增长 21.1%及 31.0%;大学生及成人考试业务同比 增长 34.9%;新业务方面,Q2 整体营收同比增长 42.6%,其中非学科类 辅导业务报名人次 99.4 万人次,同比增长 26.5%。智能学习系统及设备 Q1 活跃付费用户达 26.1 万人,同比增长 44.2%。 新东方(EDU/9901) 更新报告 业绩 ...
金沙中国有限公司:24年第四季度業績符合預期,倫敦人第二期將能推動集團表現
第一上海证券· 2025-02-06 08:08
金沙中國(1928) 更新報告 24 年第四季度業績符合預期,倫敦人第二期將能推動集團表現 買入 2025 年 02 月 05 日 王柏俊 852 2532 1915 Patrickwong@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 行業 博彩和娛樂 股價 17.28 港元 目標價 24.45 港元 (+41.5%) 股票代碼 1928 已發行股本 80.93 億股 市值 1399 億港元 52 周高/低 24.65/13.24 港元 每股淨現值 0.51 港元 主要股東 LVS Sands Corp 72.3% | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财政年度 | 2022实际 | 2023实际 | 2024预测 | 2025预测 | 2026预测 | 30 | | 收入(百万美元) | 1,605 | 6,534 | 7,080 | 7,808 | 8,539 | 25 | | 变动(%) | -44.2% | 307.1% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | | ...
台积电:营收毛利均超预期,上调未来五年AI收入指引
第一上海证券· 2025-01-23 14:47
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of $260, implying an 18.88% upside from the current price of $218.70 [2] Core Views - Revenue and gross margin exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of AI revenue guidance for the next five years [2] - Future 5-year AI revenue CAGR is projected at 45%, driven by ASIC and GPU chip demand [12][14] - First-generation N2 process is expected to enter mass production in H2 2025, with strong demand for AI and server chips [15] - Advanced packaging capacity expansion is ongoing, with CoWoS capacity expected to grow significantly through 2027 [24] - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology is being developed to enhance data center interconnect speeds, potentially reaching 6.4 Tbps [25] Financial Performance - Q4 2024 revenue reached NT$868.46 billion (USD 26.9 billion), up 38.8% YoY, surpassing the guidance midpoint of USD 26.5 billion and Bloomberg consensus of USD 25.8 billion [5] - Gross margin for Q4 2024 was 59%, up 6 percentage points YoY, with operating profit of NT$425.71 billion (USD 13.18 billion), up 63.6% YoY [6] - Net income attributable to shareholders was NT$374.68 billion (USD 11.6 billion), up 57% YoY, with diluted EPS per ADR at USD 2.24, beating consensus of USD 2.16 [7] - 2025 revenue guidance is set at 25% YoY growth in USD terms, driven by AI server processor demand [11] Advanced Process and Packaging - 7nm and below advanced processes contributed 74% of Q4 2024 revenue, with 3nm and 5nm processes accounting for 26% and 34% respectively [13] - CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is expected to grow by 131%/35%/20% in 2025/2026/2027, reaching 85k/115k/138k wafers per month [24] - N2 process is set for mass production in H2 2025, with N2P and A16 processes following in H2 2026 [15] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - 2025 capital expenditure is projected at USD 38-42 billion, with 70% allocated to advanced process R&D and fab construction [11] - Overseas fab construction and rising power costs may dilute gross margin by 2-3 percentage points annually over the next 3-5 years, but advanced process premium and capacity utilization improvements are expected to offset this [16] - Long-term gross margin is expected to reach 60%, supported by N2 ramp-up and N5 to N3 capacity conversion [28]
菲利普莫里斯国际:新型烟草需求强劲,无烟计划推动稳健增长
第一上海证券· 2025-01-22 06:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $150.00, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% from the current price of $121.59 [4][5][139]. Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PMI) is transitioning towards a "smoke-free future" with a strong focus on reduced-risk products (RRPs) such as heated tobacco and nicotine pouches, which are expected to drive future growth [2][3][137]. - The company's flagship heated tobacco product, IQOS, has established a dominant market position globally, particularly in Japan and Europe, and is set to expand further into the U.S. market [2][3][137]. - PMI's revenue from RRPs has significantly increased, contributing approximately 35.6% to total revenue as of 2023, with expectations for continued growth [25][133][138]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - PMI is a leading global tobacco company with a strong market presence in approximately 175 countries, primarily known for its Marlboro brand [1][8]. - The company has shifted its strategy to focus on low-risk products in response to declining smoking rates and increasing health awareness [7][9]. Financial Performance - PMI's revenue for 2022 was $31.76 billion, with projections for 2024-2026 showing growth to $37.86 billion, $40.38 billion, and $43.08 billion respectively [6][141]. - The company reported a net profit of $9.05 billion in 2022, with forecasts indicating growth to $9.83 billion in 2024 and $11.61 billion by 2026 [6][141]. Product Development - PMI has successfully diversified its product portfolio to include a range of non-combustible products, with heated tobacco products and nicotine pouches gaining significant traction [3][25][138]. - The acquisition of Swedish Match and its ZYN brand has positioned PMI as a leader in the nicotine pouch market, with ZYN's sales volume increasing by 55.8% year-over-year [3][138][129]. Market Position - PMI holds a leading market share in the global tobacco industry, with a 28.3% share in the heated tobacco segment and a strong presence in both traditional and emerging markets [15][12]. - The company's IQOS brand commands a 71% market share in the heated tobacco category, reinforcing its competitive advantage [72][72]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in PMI's RRP segment, particularly in the U.S. market, following the resolution of legal disputes and the expansion of its product offerings [137][138]. - PMI's commitment to innovation and market expansion is expected to enhance its revenue streams and shareholder returns in the coming years [138][139].
中国宏桥:行业景气提升业绩,一体化凸显成本优势
第一上海证券· 2025-01-21 07:46
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 16.8, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HKD 12.82 [2][72]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth due to high industry demand, with Shandong Hongqiao achieving a revenue of CNY 110.1 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit of CNY 15.8 billion, up 141% year-on-year [2][3]. - The integrated business model of the company provides a competitive advantage, ensuring stable supply and cost efficiency, with a self-sufficiency rate of 156% for alumina production [3][72]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be CNY 150.3 billion, CNY 153.2 billion, and CNY 154.3 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at CNY 20.9 billion, CNY 22.7 billion, and CNY 23.6 billion [72]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 133.6 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to CNY 150.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12% [5][72]. - The net profit for 2023 was CNY 11.5 billion, with expectations of CNY 22.8 billion in 2024, representing an 82% increase [5][72]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be CNY 2.20, CNY 2.40, and CNY 2.50 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [72]. Industry Context - The aluminum industry is experiencing high demand, with global electrolytic aluminum production growth slowing down, leading to a tight supply situation [24][29]. - The report highlights that China's aluminum production and consumption account for over half of the global totals, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.1% in demand from 2015 to 2024 [29][30]. Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized its cost structure, with a decrease in raw material prices contributing to improved profit margins [2][3]. - The report notes a steady decline in the company's debt ratio, which was 47% in 2023, indicating enhanced financial stability [18][20]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with forecasts of dividends per share at HKD 0.80, HKD 1.45, and HKD 1.58 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [70][72].
特步国际:2024年第四季度表现良好,索康尼更增长50%
第一上海证券· 2025-01-17 07:35
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 7.03, implying a 26.7% upside from the current price of HKD 5.5 [4][7] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance was strong, with Saucony growing 50% YoY [2][7] - Xtep's main brand retail sales grew high single-digit YoY in 2024, while Saucony exceeded expectations with over 60% growth [7] - Full-year 2024 profit is expected to achieve 20% growth target [7] - The company is optimistic about 2025 performance, expecting double-digit growth [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 14,712 million in 2024E to RMB 16,676 million in 2026E, representing a 9.4% CAGR [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1,242 million in 2024E to RMB 1,576 million in 2026E, a 14.1% CAGR [3] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.9% in 2022 to 43.8% in 2026 [8] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 11.4% in 2022 to 14.9% in 2026 [8] Business Development - Xtep main brand: - Continuing to open larger stores and close smaller ones to improve store efficiency [7] - Over 60% of stores are 9th generation stores [7] - Expanding internationally, focusing on Southeast Asia, Middle East, Russia, and cross-border e-commerce [7] - Saucony: - Estimated to exceed RMB 1 billion in scale in 2024 [7] - Store efficiency estimated at RMB 300,000-500,000+ [7] - Plans to open flagship stores in tier 1 cities and expand to tier 2-3 cities [7] - Long-term operating margin target of 20%+ [7] Valuation - Current PE ratio: 10.5x (2024E), 9.5x (2025E), 8.4x (2026E) [3] - Target price of HKD 7.03 represents 12x 2025E EPS [7] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 4.8% in 2024E to 6.0% in 2026E [3]
微盟集团:AI赋能微信小店解决方案升级
第一上海证券· 2025-01-15 06:23
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [4][5][6]. Core Insights - Weimob Group focuses on providing cloud-based business and marketing solutions, leveraging the WeChat ecosystem to enhance operational efficiency and conversion rates for SMEs and brand clients [4]. - The integration of mini-programs and WeChat stores has solidified Weimob's position as a leading service provider within the WeChat ecosystem, offering five new solutions aimed at helping merchants achieve efficient integration and business growth [5]. - The introduction of the gifting feature in WeChat stores has improved the social e-commerce experience, creating incremental opportunities for merchants, although consumer adoption may take time [6]. - Weimob is committed to exploring AI applications within the WeChat ecosystem to enhance merchant operational efficiency, with features like automated store setup and intelligent customer service [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Weimob Group specializes in cloud-based commercial and marketing solutions, including SaaS solutions, advertising services, e-commerce support, and AI technology applications [4]. Business Strategy - The company has redefined its micro-mall solutions by reducing the proportion of basic versions from 60% to 20%, focusing on WeChat stores combined with plugins and intelligent customer service for small and micro businesses [5]. Market Opportunities - The gifting feature in WeChat stores is expected to attract more merchants and enhance operational strategies, particularly in lifestyle categories [6]. Technological Innovation - Weimob is leveraging AI to streamline the store setup process, significantly reducing technical barriers and time costs for merchants [7]. Financial Metrics - The current stock price is HKD 2.32, with a market capitalization of HKD 78.33 billion and a 52-week range of HKD 3.69 to HKD 1.79 [8].
安踏体育:2024年第四季度表现优于预期
第一上海证券· 2025-01-15 06:23
6 安踏体育(2020) 更新报告 2024 年第四季度表现优于预期 买入 2024 年 1 月 15 日 王柏俊 852-25321915 patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 | 行业 | 服装纺织 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 78.5 港元 | | 目标价 | 106.4 港元 | | | (+35.6%) | | 股票代码 | 2020 | | 已发行股本 | 28.23 亿股 | | 市值 | 2216 亿港元 | | 52 周高/低 | 107.5/57.87 港元 | | 每股净现值 | 20.23 人民币 | | 主要股东 | 丁世忠(52.56%) | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止1 2月3 1日财政年度 | 2 0 2 2实际 2 | 0 2 3实际 2 | 0 2 4预测 | 2 0 2 5预测 | 2 0 2 6预测 | 120 | | | 收入(百万人民币) | 53,651 | 62,356 ...
咖啡行业跟踪研究
第一上海证券· 2025-01-14 02:16
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the coffee industry Core Insights - Coffee bean futures prices have surged, leading to increased cost pressures that are being passed on to consumers [2][3] - Luckin Coffee has a competitive advantage due to its scale and self-built roasting capacity [7][8] - Luckin Coffee is adjusting raw material prices and subsidy policies for franchisees to strengthen its leading position in the industry [11][12] - Kudi Coffee has paused its store-in-store model and has not clarified whether it will restart this initiative [14][15] - Starbucks has launched the "Sailing Plan" operational model in China, with several first stores recently closing [19][20] - Starbucks in the U.S. is facing large-scale strikes, with the company stating it cannot meet union demands [21] Summary by Sections Coffee Bean Market - Brazil and Vietnam account for over 50% of global coffee bean production, but adverse weather has led to significant reductions in output [3] - The USDA has revised Brazil's coffee production forecast for 2024/25 down to 66.4 million bags, a decrease of 2.6 million bags or approximately 5% from earlier estimates [3] - The global coffee bean supply-demand gap is expected to widen, with year-end inventories projected to drop by 1.5 million bags to 2.09 million bags [4] - Coffee prices have risen dramatically, with futures increasing by 70.9% from early 2024 to late December 2024 [4] Luckin Coffee - Luckin Coffee has over 22,000 stores, making it the largest in China's fresh coffee market and second globally [7] - The company has signed a memorandum to purchase 240,000 tons of Brazilian coffee beans over five years, valued at approximately 10 billion RMB [8] - Luckin's self-built roasting factories are expected to reduce costs by about 10% compared to outsourcing [9] - The company is lowering raw material prices for franchisees, with a 16.8% reduction in the price of blended coffee beans [11] - Adjustments in subsidy policies are expected to positively impact profits by approximately 270 million RMB in FY2025 [13] Kudi Coffee - Kudi Coffee has halted its store-in-store model and is currently not recruiting for this format [14] - The company had previously launched a new store model to reduce franchisee investment requirements [15] Starbucks - Starbucks has initiated the "Sailing Plan" to enhance employee career development amid competitive pressures in China [19] - Several of Starbucks' first stores have closed due to various market factors [20] - In the U.S., Starbucks is experiencing significant labor unrest, with over 300 stores participating in strikes [21]