Group 1: Domestic Computing Industry Insights - The domestic computing industry is expected to see significant growth in 2026, with the new generation of computing chips, the 950 series from Company H, set to be mass-produced[4] - Internet companies have shown positive evaluations and strong purchasing intentions for the 950 chip, indicating robust demand in the downstream market[4] - Key domestic computing stocks recommended include Cambricon (688256) and SMIC (981.HK), with a focus on semiconductor supply chains[4] Group 2: AI and CAPEX Trends - AI applications are driving a significant increase in computing CAPEX, with North American CSPs planning substantial investments to meet rising demand[7] - The emergence of Agentic AI is expected to dramatically increase CPU performance requirements, potentially creating new bottlenecks in the market[9] - The AI inflation trend is spreading across the electronics industry, with price increases noted in various components due to heightened demand and rising raw material costs[10] Group 3: Supply Chain and Component Shortages - The IC substrate supply chain is facing bottlenecks due to a shortage of fiberglass cloth, with tight supply expected to persist until 2027[5] - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) are proactively addressing supply chain issues through early stockpiling and new supplier development[8] - The advanced packaging industry is also experiencing increased demand, with domestic companies benefiting from a favorable market environment[11]

+852-2532 1954 行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 3 月 2 日 星期一 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：重视国产算力产业链，AI 应用强化算力 CAPEX 趋势 chen.huang@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 TMT 我们继续提示国产算力的确定性机会，预计 H 公司新一代改款算力芯片 950 系列即 将发布，实现量产落地。产业链调研情况看，互联网公司对 950 芯片的评价正面， 采购意愿积极，我们重申 2026 年将是国产算力放量年。上周，关于寒武纪的小作 文也在各种媒体流传，我们认为这是下游客户端旺盛需求的一个印证。随着 AI 推 理应用逐步推广，算力瓶颈开始凸显。近日，字节 Seedance 视频生成任务开始拥 堵，反映了用户端爆发的需求与有限的算力之间的供需差。 推荐国产算力的核心标的包括寒武纪（688256）为代表的国产算力卡供应商，以及 中芯国际（981.HK）为代表的上游晶圆代工厂。此外，华虹集团在先进制程上进展 积极，建议关注旗下子公司华虹半导体（1347.HK）的投资机会。以及 H 公司产业 链 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company mentioned, MGM China Holdings Limited [6][30]. Core Insights - MGM China's revenue for Q4 2025 reached HKD 9.62 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.0%, achieving 169.0% of the revenue compared to the same period in 2019 [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the same quarter grew by 29.5% year-on-year and 16.0% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2.75 billion, marking a new quarterly high at 176.7% of the EBITDA compared to 2019 [6]. - The VIP business turnover increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 30.64 billion, recovering to 46.3% of the 2019 level [6]. - The mass market business saw a year-on-year growth of 20.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.8%, reaching HKD 8.56 billion, which is 217.1% of the 2019 level [6]. - The overall market share for the group in Q4 reached 16.5%, benefiting from a focus on high-end mass market strategies and optimized products and services [6]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - MGM China's Q4 2025 revenue was HKD 9.62 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.0% [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was HKD 2.75 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.0% [6]. - The EBITDA margin increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 28.5% [6]. VIP and Mass Market Business - VIP business turnover for Q4 was HKD 30.64 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3% [6]. - Mass market business turnover reached HKD 8.56 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.8% [6]. Market Share and Strategy - The group's market share in Q4 was 16.5%, with an annual average exceeding 16% [6]. - The company’s strategy focuses on high-end mass market business and continuous optimization of products and services [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $46.41, indicating a potential upside of 138% from the current stock price of $19.5 [2][4][31]. Core Insights - CARVYKTI sales are experiencing significant growth, with projected revenues of $1.887 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 95.9%. The company is expected to achieve profitability at the company level in 2026 [3][7]. - The company has made substantial investments in production capacity, with four global manufacturing facilities. Approval for commercial production at the Raritan facility is anticipated by the end of Q1 2026, which would increase annual production capacity to 10,000 doses [8][9]. - Competitive analysis shows that while Johnson & Johnson's MajesTEC-3 trial has strong data, the patient demographics differ significantly from those in the CART-4 trial, suggesting that CART-4 patients may have more severe conditions, which could impact treatment outcomes [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenues of $285 million for 2023, with projections of $1.412 billion for 2026 and $1.863 billion for 2027, indicating substantial growth rates of 143.7% and 39.7% respectively [6][32]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of $418 million by 2027, with earnings per share projected to reach $1.13 [6][31]. Production Capacity - The company has invested nearly $1 billion in production facilities, with plans to expand the Gent facility in Belgium, which is expected to increase capacity to 20,000 doses by 2028 [8][9]. - The anticipated FDA approval for the Raritan facility will significantly enhance production capabilities, allowing for rapid scaling in response to market demand [9][10]. Clinical Pipeline - The company is advancing its clinical trials, with the Cartitude-5 trial for first-line non-transplant patients completed and plans to negotiate with the FDA regarding MRD negativity as a potential endpoint for Cartitude-6 [4][27]. - The Cartitude-6 trial is the only ongoing Phase III trial directly comparing CAR-T therapy with autologous stem cell transplantation for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma [28]. Market Position - The report highlights that if the company captures 15-20% of the 2-4 line patient market, it could translate to approximately 10,000 treatments annually, emphasizing the potential for Carvykti as a preferred treatment option [15]. - The competitive landscape indicates that Carvykti's efficacy data provides a significant advantage, particularly for patients seeking long-term remission and potential cures [15][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2]. Core Insights - Tencent's WeChat Pay saw a significant increase in cross-border transaction volume during the Spring Festival, with offline consumption in Hong Kong and Macau growing by 24% and 39% respectively, and a more than 70% increase in mini-program transaction amounts in Hong Kong [2]. - The report highlights Tencent's strategic shift in gaming, closing its Montreal studio to focus on investment and publishing rather than self-developing AAA games, which have high development costs and risks [4]. - Tencent Meeting has achieved over 15 million MAU in overseas markets, with a significant increase in paid subscription penetration from 8% to 12%, indicating strong growth in its SaaS business [5]. Summary by Sections WeChat/Payments - WeChat Pay's offline transaction volume during the Spring Festival increased by over 20% year-on-year, with Hong Kong and Macau showing strong growth [2]. AI/Social - Tencent's "Yuanbao" social payment feature reached a MAU of 114 million, with a peak DAU of over 50 million, demonstrating effective low-cost social penetration strategies [3]. Gaming - The closure of the Montreal studio reflects Tencent's strategic pivot away from high-risk AAA game development towards leveraging partnerships with established overseas teams [4]. Enterprise Services - Tencent Meeting's MAU surpassed 180 million globally, with overseas MAU exceeding 15 million, driven by a 45% year-on-year growth and an increase in paid subscription rates [5].

Company Overview - Legend Biotech (LEGN) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $46.41, representing a potential upside of 138% from the current price of $19.5[5] - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, driven by the sales growth of its product CARVYKTI[5] Financial Performance - CARVYKTI generated $1.887 billion in revenue for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 95.9%[10] - The company forecasts total revenue of $1.412 billion for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 39.7%[9] - Legend Biotech's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to turn positive at $0.28 in 2026, after losses in previous years[9] Production Capacity - The company has four global production facilities, with an expected annual capacity of 10,000 doses upon FDA approval in Q1 2026[5] - A $200 million investment is planned to expand the production capacity in Ghent, Belgium, aiming for 20,000 doses by 2028[5] Competitive Landscape - Legend Biotech's CART-4 trial includes a higher percentage of more severe patients compared to Johnson & Johnson's MajesTEC-3 trial, indicating a competitive edge in clinical data[6] Valuation Metrics - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10% and a perpetual growth rate of 0%, leading to a target price of $46.41[8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with a target price of $300.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.47% from the current price of $213.57 [1][4]. Core Insights - AMD is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its AI GPU sales, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 82.3% from 2026 to 2028 [7]. - The company anticipates strong demand for its next-generation data center products, particularly in the AI sector, with a forecast of over 60% annual growth in data center revenue over the next 3-5 years [4]. - AMD's client product market share continues to grow, with a notable increase in desktop and laptop revenue, and plans to launch a more extensive AI PC product line [4]. - The gaming business has shown robust holiday revenue growth, and the embedded business is recovering, contributing positively to overall performance [4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, AMD's total revenue is projected to be $25.785 billion, increasing to $81.437 billion by 2028, reflecting a growth rate of 13.7% in 2024 and 22.3% in 2028 [3][9]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise from $5.420 billion in 2024 to $23.065 billion in 2028, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from $3.3 to $14.3 over the same period [3][9]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 49.4% in 2024 to 56.6% in 2028, indicating enhanced profitability [9][10]. - The company’s operating expenses are expected to grow, but at a controlled rate, with R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing from 25.0% in 2024 to 20.5% in 2028 [9][10].

Group 1: Company Overview - AMD is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $300, indicating a potential upside of 40.47% from the current price of $213.57[5] - The company has a market capitalization of $348.2 billion, with a 52-week high of $267.08 and a low of $76.48[5] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, AMD reported revenue of $10.27 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $9.65 billion[7] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 54.3%, up by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, while operating profit reached $1.75 billion, a 101.1% increase[7] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2025 was $2.52 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 41.8%[7] Group 3: Future Projections - AMD's revenue guidance for Q1 2026 is set at $9.8 billion, which includes $100 million from MI308 sales in China, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.4%[7] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% for its data center business over the next 3-5 years, with AI business revenues expected to reach hundreds of billions by 2027[8] Group 4: Market Share and Product Development - AMD's client segment revenue grew by 33.9% to $3.1 billion, with desktop and laptop market shares at 33.6% and 21.9%, respectively[9] - The company plans to launch a more extensive AI PC product line this year, following the successful release of the Ryzen AI 400 mobile processors[9] Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected sales of AI acceleration chips, lower-than-expected growth in PC market share, and challenges in the recovery of gaming and embedded businesses[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies across various sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the near future [12]. Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a significant shift towards AI applications, with traditional SaaS software facing headwinds due to the emergence of AI tools that automate various tasks [4][5]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, with supply constraints leading to a focus on leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [6]. - The AI-driven inflation is affecting the electronics industry, with price increases observed in power devices and other components [7]. - The report highlights the importance of CPU performance in the Agentic AI era, suggesting that CPU shortages could enhance profitability for leading companies in this space [6]. - The advanced packaging industry is poised for growth due to increased demand driven by AI investments, with recommendations for companies like Longji Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics [8]. - Domestic computing power is expected to see significant opportunities, particularly with the launch of new generation chips [9]. - The IC substrate supply chain is facing bottlenecks, with recommendations for domestic companies that could benefit from price increases [10]. Summary by Sections Technology Sector - AI applications are gaining traction, leading to concerns about the impact on traditional SaaS [4]. - Major companies are releasing AI programming tools, enhancing productivity in various fields [5]. Optical Modules - Strong demand is anticipated in the optical module industry, with supply constraints favoring leading firms [6]. Electronics Industry - AI inflation is spreading, causing price hikes in various electronic components, particularly in power devices [7]. CPU Market - The performance of CPUs is becoming increasingly critical, with potential shortages expected to boost profitability for leading firms [6]. Advanced Packaging - The advanced packaging sector is expected to benefit from AI investments, with several companies recommended for investment [8]. Domestic Computing Power - New generation computing chips are set to launch, presenting significant opportunities for domestic firms [9]. IC Substrate Supply Chain - The IC substrate market is experiencing supply constraints, with recommendations for companies likely to benefit from price increases [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's stock price experienced a significant drop due to rumors regarding an increase in value-added tax, which was later clarified to not affect Tencent's core business, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [2]. - Tencent's AI initiatives are advancing, with the launch of a technical blog by the chief AI scientist, showcasing a new benchmark that addresses the limitations of current models in real-time learning, which could enhance Tencent's competitive edge in AI applications [3]. - The "Yuanbao" app has gained significant traction, reaching the top of the App Store with an estimated peak daily active users (DAU) exceeding 20 million, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [4]. - The return of the mobile version of "QQ Classic Farm" is expected to activate long-tail users and contribute an estimated revenue of 1 to 2 billion yuan in its first year, reflecting Tencent's strategy to leverage classic IPs for user engagement [5]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - Tencent's stock price fell below 600 HKD due to market misinterpretation of tax changes, but the fundamentals remain intact, presenting a low-cost entry point for investors [2]. AI Developments - The launch of the CL-bench benchmark by Tencent's AI team aims to improve real-time learning capabilities, marking a shift from merely chasing parameters to defining paradigms in AI [3]. App Performance - The "Yuanbao" app's success in the App Store indicates a strong user engagement strategy, although concerns about user retention in the WeChat ecosystem remain [4]. Game Strategy - The reintroduction of "QQ Classic Farm" aims to activate dormant users and is projected to generate significant revenue, showcasing Tencent's focus on mobile adaptations of classic games [5].