新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4950 期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 星期五 研究观点 【行业评论】 互联网行业周报 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【行业评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 【阿里巴巴】阿里千问月活用户破亿，接入阿里生态并推出任务助理 1 月 15 日，阿里巴巴旗下千问 App 在大版本更新发布会上迎来关键用户规模里程 碑——千问 C 端事业群总裁吴嘉披露，千问 C 端月度活跃用户数（MAU）已突破 1 亿。这一成绩距离千问 2025 年 11 月 17 日正式上线仅两个月，其用户增长速度显 著。 此外，阿里巴巴旗下千问 App 启动上线以来最大规模版本更新，核心聚焦生活服 务接入与复杂任务办理两大方向。此次更新不仅首批接入淘宝闪购、支 ...

TCL 电子（1070） 更新报告 联手索尼，迎来全球化高端化发展里程碑 盈利摘要 股价表现 www.mystockhk.com 买入 2026 年 01 月 21 日 黄佳杰 | 截止12月31日 | | | 2023实际 2024实际 2025预测 2026预测 2027预测 | | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业额（百万港元） | 78,986 | 99,322 | 119,907 | 135,684 | 153,961 | 10 | | 变动(%) | 10.7 | 25.7 | 20.7 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 8 | | 毛利率 | 17.3% | 15.7% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 15.7% | 6 | | 净利润 | 744 | 1,759 | 2,535 | 2,898 | 3,513 | 4 | | 变动（％） | 14.0 | 100.1 | 57.8 | 14.3 | 21.2 | 2 | | 每股基本盈利（港元) | 0.33 | 0.66 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.39 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - Mingming Busy Group is recognized as one of China's largest and fastest-growing chain retailers in the food and beverage sector, with a significant market presence and a strong growth trajectory [3][4]. - The company operates a vast network of 19,517 stores across 28 provinces and all tier-one cities in China, with approximately 59% of its stores located in county and town areas [4][9]. - The company reported a GMV of RMB 55.5 billion in 2024, with a substantial increase of 74.5% to RMB 66.1 billion for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [4][10]. Company Overview - Mingming Busy Group operates under two brands: "Busy Snacks" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks," which were founded in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The company has adopted a dual-brand strategy post-merger to leverage complementary regional coverage and consumer recognition [5][6]. - The product range includes baked goods, snacks, beverages, and more, with a total of 3,997 SKUs as of September 30, 2025, and each store typically maintaining at least 1,800 SKUs [7][9]. Operational Model - The company primarily operates through a franchise model, generating revenue from sales to franchisees and franchise service fees [7][10]. - The operational strategy focuses on enhancing customer experience through store design and product variety, aiming to increase customer dwell time and brand recognition [9]. Financial Performance - Revenue has shown remarkable growth, increasing from RMB 4.29 billion in 2022 to RMB 39.34 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203% [10][12]. - The gross profit margin remained stable between 7.5% and 7.6% from 2022 to 2024, improving to 9.7% for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, due to economies of scale and cost control [10][12]. - Adjusted net profit increased significantly from RMB 81.5 million in 2022 to RMB 912.6 million in 2024, with a net profit margin rising to 3.4% for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [10][12]. Strategic Advantages - The company benefits from a strong supply chain, innovative product development, and a well-established brand image, which contribute to its competitive edge in the market [16]. - The management team is noted for its strategic vision and commitment to operational excellence, focusing on digital transformation and supply chain optimization [16].

852-25321539 First Call 策略 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 01 月 19 日 星期一 【First Call 策略】 第一上海——First Call 一月策略（一） tieyan.zhang@firstshanghai.com.hk 市场表现 图表 1：美国失业率按族裔分化 资料来源：Macrotrends 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 张铁言 开年以来，纳指 100 上涨 1.13%，标普 500 上涨 1.43%，罗素 2000 上涨 7.96%， vix 下跌 26.8%；纳指跑输标普，同时大幅跑输罗素 2000，市场发生剧烈的风 格切换，驱动因素变得复杂而多元；据我们的调研，大家对下半年市场大波动 的预期很强，上半年赚钱的压力形成"抢跑"，市场宽度扩散，中小票叠加政策 与宏观驱动，有色、国防、商业航天、电力板块等轮动很快；进入 2026，AI 进 入更强的打地鼠模式，哪里短缺涨哪里；特朗普面对中期选举压力，经常做出 惊人之举，可预测性变差，显而易见，今年市场比去年难做。 美国经济呈现出更 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 1 月 19 日 星期一 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk Robotaxi：特斯拉选择三星为其提供 5G 调制解调器 1 月 15 日，据 TheElec 报道，三星系统 LSI 部门已完成为特斯拉开发的专用车用 级 5G 调制解调器，目前正处于测试阶段，预计将于今年上半年开始供货，首批部 署计划用于特斯拉在德克萨斯州的 Robotaxi 出租车队。车载 5G 调制解调器（Aut omotive 5G Modem）负责让车辆与互联网、其他车辆、设施进行高速、低延迟的数 据交换，提供了超视距感知，对于自动驾驶系统至关重要。 FSD：FSD 服务转向订阅制模式；发布 FSD v14.2.2.3 1 月 14 日，马斯克在 X 上发帖证实特斯拉将停止一次性购买 FSD 系统渠道，并将 仅提供按月订阅的模式。马斯克表示特斯拉停止销售 FSD 功能的日期为 2 月 14 日。 目前在美国 FSD 的订阅模式为每月 99 美元 ...

携程（TCOM.O） 更新报告 反垄断立案不改长期竞争力，估值底部布局正当时 重要风险: 1）宏观经济发展不及预期；2）地缘政治风险；3）竞争加剧；4）海外 扩展不及预期；5）品牌声誉风险；6）监管处罚及整改影响大于预期。 买入 2026 年 1 月 19 日 黎航荣 wayne.li@firstshanghai.com.hk (852) 2522 2101 主要数据 | 行业 | OTA/互联网 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 61.77 美元 | | 目标价 | 85.00 美元 | | | (+38.0%) | | 股票代码 | TCOM.O | | 总股本 | 6.54 亿股 | | 市值 | 403.73 亿美元 | | 52 周高/低 | 78.99 美元/51.35 美元 | | 每股净资产 | 36.223 美元 | | 主要股东 | 百度集团(7.00%) | | | Capital World | | | Investors(6.20%) | | | 梁建章(5.30%) | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Company Analysis - Ctrip Group (TCOM) maintains a strong competitive position in the Chinese travel industry despite facing an antitrust investigation, with a buy rating and a target price of HKD 85.00, reflecting a 31% increase from the previous target of HKD 65.00[6][3]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is HKD 47.20, a 68% increase from the previous estimate of HKD 28.10, while the 2026 EPS is expected to decrease by 7% to HKD 29.70[3]. Regulatory Impact - The potential fine for Ctrip, based on historical penalties for similar companies like Alibaba and Meituan, could range from HKD 1.8 billion to HKD 2.5 billion, representing approximately 10%-14% of the estimated annual profit for 2025[8]. - The investigation is expected to lead to regulatory changes focusing on eliminating exclusive agreements and promoting fair competition, which may shift the industry from price competition to service competition[8]. Financial Projections - Ctrip's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at HKD 16.89 billion, HKD 19.84 billion, and HKD 23.14 billion respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory[9][12]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from HKD 61.97 billion in 2025 to HKD 79.92 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.1%[12]. Market Sentiment - The current market price of Ctrip shares corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 14.5, which is considered low compared to historical valuations, suggesting that the market may be overreacting to the investigation[9]. - The anticipated recovery in domestic outbound tourism and Ctrip's strong penetration in overseas markets are expected to provide a favorable environment for growth[9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies within the advanced packaging and domestic semiconductor sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [6][16]. Core Insights - The advanced packaging industry is experiencing increased demand due to ongoing AI investments, with significant growth expected in the hardware supply chain [5][6]. - Domestic packaging companies are poised to benefit from both overseas and local demand, with expectations of price increases in advanced packaging services [6][10]. - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Longi Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Yinxin Electronics, as well as materials suppliers like Huahai Chengke and Lianrui New Materials [6][10]. Summary by Sections Advanced Packaging Sector - The report emphasizes the strong demand for advanced packaging, particularly from TSMC's CoWoS packaging, which is currently in short supply, leading to increased orders for domestic companies [5][6]. - Taiwanese companies are reportedly raising prices for packaging services by 5-30%, reflecting a bullish market sentiment [5][6]. Domestic Semiconductor Opportunities - The report identifies a favorable cycle for domestic packaging companies driven by AI investments, with a projected increase in advanced process releases in 2026 [6][8]. - Major domestic players are expected to capture a significant share of the growing demand, with ByteDance and Alibaba projected to invest heavily in domestic computing power [7][8]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The report notes that supply chain constraints, particularly in IC substrates due to upstream material shortages, are creating bottlenecks, which could benefit leading companies like Shenzhen Circuit and Pengding Holdings [10][12]. - The overall supply-demand balance in the optical module industry is also highlighted, with recommendations to focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang that are proactively managing supply chain challenges [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various sectors, including consumer hardware, domestic computing power, and overseas CSP/ASIC supply chains, with specific stock picks provided [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the initiation of an antitrust investigation by the State Council against the food delivery industry, focusing on issues such as "subsidy wars, price competition, and traffic control" [2] - The investigation is expected to accelerate industry reshuffling, shifting platforms from "traffic competition" to "value creation," ultimately benefiting consumers, merchants, delivery personnel, and platforms [2] - Future trends in the food delivery market are identified as technology-driven efficiency, supply chain optimization, and regulatory evolution aimed at balancing consumer rights, merchant profits, and delivery personnel welfare [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The report outlines a timeline of regulatory actions against food delivery platforms, including multiple rounds of discussions and the signing of a self-regulatory food safety management agreement by eight platforms [3] Market Dynamics - The report notes that high-value orders are becoming a key competitive focus, with Meituan capturing over 66% of orders above 15 yuan and 70% of those above 30 yuan [4] - The increase in high-value order proportions indicates that acquiring and retaining high-quality users will be crucial for sustainable platform development [4] Technological Advancements - Platforms are expected to invest in AI algorithms and smart scheduling to enhance fulfillment efficiency, indicating a shift towards technology-driven operations [4] Company Highlights - Alibaba's Gaode Map launched a new feature that attracted over 600,000 merchant reservations within five days, showcasing the demand for digital tools among offline businesses [5][6] - Tencent continues to lead the global mobile gaming market, with its flagship game "Honor of Kings" generating over $2 billion in revenue, contributing to its strong market position [7] - ByteDance is increasing its option grant prices to enhance talent retention and competitiveness, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a strong workforce amid global talent competition [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the automotive industry or Tesla [3]. Core Insights - Tesla has expanded its Cybercab fleet in Austin and the Bay Area, with a total of 139 vehicles currently in operation, primarily Model Y, and the Cybercab being the latest addition [2]. - The Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature is being enhanced with new job postings in Thailand for data collection, indicating regulatory progress [4]. - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has achieved a significant milestone by producing its 5 millionth drive unit, showcasing its production capacity [6]. - Tesla plans to double its Supercharger network in Hawaii, adding 56 new charging stations to improve infrastructure [7]. - The company has launched new versions of the Model Y in Europe and the U.S., including a long-range rear-wheel drive version and a seven-seat Premium upgrade option [10]. Summary by Sections Cybercab Expansion - Tesla has increased its Cybercab fleet in Austin and the Bay Area, with 7 Cybercabs currently operational and a total of 139 vehicles in the fleet [2]. Full Self-Driving (FSD) Development - New job openings in Thailand for vehicle operators are aimed at improving FSD capabilities, with the feature already launched in seven regions [4]. - Elon Musk stated that achieving fully autonomous driving requires 10 billion miles of training data, with Tesla currently having 7.2 billion miles [5]. Production Milestones - The Shanghai Gigafactory has produced its 5 millionth drive unit, highlighting its significant role in Tesla's overall production capacity [6]. Infrastructure Expansion - Tesla is planning to expand its Supercharger network in Hawaii, potentially doubling the number of charging stations to enhance travel convenience [7]. Vehicle Launches - Tesla has introduced a long-range rear-wheel drive version of the Model Y in Europe, which offers a WLTP range of 657 kilometers [10]. - A seven-seat Premium upgrade for the Model Y has been launched in the U.S. to meet consumer demand for more spacious SUV options [10]. Sales Data - In December, Tesla delivered 97,171 vehicles in China, marking a 12% month-over-month increase and a 4% year-over-year increase, with Model Y sales leading [11].