公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2025 年 3 月 25 日 星期二 【公司评论】 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 | + 852 2532 1957 | | | --- | --- | | Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk | | | 吕彦辛 | | | +852 2532 1539 | | | Alexandra.lyu@ firstshanghai.com.hk | | | 行业 TMT | | | 股价 | 513 港元 | | 市值 | 4.718 万亿港元 | | 总股本 | 91.97 亿 | | --- | --- | | 52 周高/低 | 547 港元/294 港元 | | 每股净资产 | 107.99 港元 | 股价表现 2025 年 3 月 24 日消息，智能机器人公司智元机器人新一轮融资由腾讯领投，这 是腾讯在具身智能领域的首次出手。其中，腾讯认缴出资额 166 万元，持股比例 为 2%。本轮投资由多家产业方及老股东共同参与，包括龙旗科技、卧龙电驱、华 发集团、蓝驰创投等。此前智元机器人已获高瓴、红 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights Tesla's ongoing developments in autonomous driving, energy storage, and production capabilities, indicating a strong focus on innovation and expansion in the electric vehicle and energy sectors [3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Tesla's current stock price is $248.71, with a market capitalization of $800 billion and a total share count of 3.217 billion [2]. Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla has received a preliminary permit to operate a robotaxi service in California, allowing it to run a fleet for specific commercial purposes, although full approval for ride-hailing and autonomous vehicle use is still pending [3]. - The company plans to equip its upcoming Cybercab with a battery pack under 50 kWh, achieving a range of approximately 300 miles, with production equipment already being installed at its Texas factory [4]. Energy Storage Initiatives - Tesla has commenced exporting Megapack units from its Shanghai factory to Australia, with an initial production capacity of 10,000 units per year, equivalent to about 40 GWh [5]. Production and Capacity Expansion - Tesla has produced over 7 million vehicles globally and anticipates surpassing 10 million vehicles next year. The Cybercab production line is expected to manufacture one unit every five seconds [5]. - The company is enhancing its Dojo supercomputer capabilities, aiming to expand from 50,000 to 100,000 GPUs to support Full Self-Driving (FSD) development [5]. Sales Performance - In the second week of March 2025, Tesla's domestic insurance registrations totaled approximately 15,300 vehicles, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter decline of about 17% but a year-over-year increase of 24% [6].

来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源: 彭博 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 6 安踏体育（2020） 更新报告 2024 年核心净利润增长 16.5%，维持高质量增长 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止1 2月3 1日财政年度 | 2 0 2 3实际 2 | 0 2 4实际 | 2 0 2 5预测 | 2 0 2 6预测 | 2 0 2 7预测 | | 收入（百万人民币） | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,415 | 86,264 | 93,997 | | 变动（%） | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.0% | | 归母净利润（百万人民币） | 10,236 | 15,596 | 13,477 | 15,145 | 16,894 | | 变动（%） | 34.9% | 52.4% | -13.6% | 12.4% | 11.6% | | 基本每股收益（人民币） | 3.69 | 5.55 | 4.80 | 5.39 | 6.02 | | 变动（ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $972.42, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of $837.01 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching $13.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 45%. The net profit for the same period was $4.41 billion, reflecting a 101.4% increase [1]. - The metabolic segment, driven by the growth of tirzepatide, saw a revenue increase of 58.5% year-over-year, totaling $9.11 billion in Q4 2024. The company is actively developing additional indications for tirzepatide, which is expected to enhance its market presence [2]. - The oncology segment also showed strong performance, with revenues of $2.55 billion in Q4 2024, primarily due to the continued uptake of the CDK4/6 inhibitor abemaciclib, which grew by 35.8% year-over-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported total revenue of $45.043 billion, a 32.0% increase from the previous year. The net profit for the year was $10.59 billion, representing a 102.1% growth [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was $11.76, a significant increase of 102.8% compared to 2023 [5][7]. - The company expects revenues to reach between $58 billion and $61 billion in 2025, with EPS projected to be between $22.05 and $23.55 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of $526.85, indicating a potential upside of 7.1% from the current price of $492.06 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong revenue growth of 25.2% year-over-year in Q4, contributing to an annual revenue of $8.35 billion, which is a 17.2% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The growth was driven by an increase in surgical procedures, particularly in the U.S. and several international markets, with a 17% increase in da Vinci surgeries, totaling 2.68 million procedures [1]. - The company is in the process of expanding its product offerings, particularly with the upcoming full launch of the DV5 surgical robot system, which is expected to be widely available by mid-2025 [2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a net profit of $2.34 billion, reflecting a 28.6% increase, with a net profit margin of 28.0% [1]. - The non-GAAP gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 69.1% due to increased production capacity and sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates a surgical growth rate of 13%-16% for 2025, with gross margins expected to remain between 67%-68% [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open new manufacturing facilities for the DV5 and Ion systems in California, as well as endoscope manufacturing plants in Germany and Bulgaria [2]. - The anticipated acquisition of businesses in Italy, Spain, and Portugal is expected to positively impact profits once completed in the first half of 2026 [2]. - Capital expenditures are projected to be between $650 million and $800 million, with other income expected to rise to $370 million to $400 million [3].

小米集团-W（1810） 更新报告 高端化持续推进，人车家生态业务协同发展 盈利超预期，25 年营收预计高增长：公司 2024 年 Q4 单季度首次超千亿收入，实 现营收 1090 亿元，同比增长 48.8%；整体毛利率为 20.6%。净利润为 90 亿元，同比 增长 90.4%，经调整净利润为 83 亿元，同比增长 69.4%，远超市场预期的 65 亿元。 基于良好的发展态势，管理层对未来前景明确，预计 2025 年整体收入增速会高于 30%，并持续加大研发投入力度，本年度预计投入 300 亿元人民币，其中在 AI 上的 投入占四分之一。 借势高端产品，手机 ASP 强势提升：手机营收 513 亿元，同比增长 16.0%，手机 ASP 同比增加 10.1%至 1202 元，创下历史新高，主要是因为境外市场高端机出货量 的占比提升。高端化方面，15 Ultra 上市后表现很好，销量同比上代增长 80%。24 年全年共出货近 1.69 亿部，预计今年出货量将达到 1.8 亿部，ASP 将随着高端化策 略的推进提升。24Q4 毛利率为 12.0%，目前核心零部件的价格均在可控范围内，25 年全年的手机毛利率将优于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Coinbase Global with a target price of $245.00, representing a potential upside of 29.12% from the current price of $189.75 [3][19]. Core Insights - Coinbase experienced significant revenue growth in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching $2.272 billion, exceeding market expectations by 22%. This growth was driven by a substantial increase in trading volume and stable fee performance [5][19]. - The total trading volume increased by 137% quarter-over-quarter, with retail trading volume rising by 176%. Non-BTC/ETH asset trading volume surged by 245%, contributing to market share expansion [5][19]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.289 billion, with a profit margin of 56.82%, and adjusted EPS was $4.67, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 144% [5][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending December 31st are as follows: - 2023: $3.108 billion - 2024: $6.564 billion - 2025E: $8.079 billion - 2026E: $8.286 billion - 2027E: $8.780 billion - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -2.69% - 2024: 111.17% - 2025E: 23.08% - 2026E: 2.57% - 2027E: 5.95% [4][21]. Q1 2025 Guidance - Management provided guidance for Q1 2025, estimating subscription and service revenue between $685 million and $765 million. Total expenses for T&D and G&A are expected to be between $750 million and $800 million, while S&M expenses are projected at $235 million to $375 million [18][19]. - As of February 11, 2025, the company reported approximately $750 million in trading revenue [18]. Market Context - The report highlights that Coinbase's revenue is highly dependent on cryptocurrency price fluctuations, and potential market corrections could impact both trading volume and fees. Increased competition and regulatory uncertainties in the U.S. are also noted as potential challenges [19][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34.19, representing a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HKD 28.5 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience during the industry adjustment period, achieving a total revenue of RMB 38.635 billion in 2024, a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.0% to RMB 4.739 billion [5][6]. - The company is focusing on premiumization in its beer segment, with high-end product sales growing over 9%, and the overall sales volume of beer reaching 10.87 billion liters, a decline of only 2.5%, which is significantly better than major competitors [5][6]. - The company plans to leverage the recovery in the dining scene and expand into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to drive future growth [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 38.932 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 39.751 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.9% [3][6]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 5.153 billion, expected to rise to RMB 5.374 billion in 2025, indicating a growth of 13.4% [3][6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 6.34 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5][6]. - Earnings Per Share and Dividends: - Basic earnings per share for 2023 was RMB 1.59, projected to increase to RMB 1.66 in 2025 [3][6]. - The dividend per share for 2024 is expected to be RMB 0.76, with a payout ratio of 52%, and the company aims to increase this to over 60% in the next three years [5][6]. - Cash Flow and Efficiency: - The net cash flow from operating activities surged by 67% year-on-year to RMB 6.93 billion, marking a five-year high [5][6]. - The company has improved its overall gross margin to 42.6%, up by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a "three precision strategy" aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness, which includes streamlining organization, optimizing costs, and refining operations [5][6]. - The focus on premiumization and product innovation is expected to solidify the company's leading position in the high-end market segment [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 13, representing a potential upside of 38% from the current price of HKD 9.6 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit performance are in line with expectations, with a steady increase in the dividend payout ratio to 60%. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of HKD 389.6 billion (+4.6% YoY) and a net profit of HKD 20.7 billion (+10.1% YoY) [3][7]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in its AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) orders, with a significant increase in its cloud and data center revenues driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [7]. - The capital expenditure structure is optimized, with a reduction in overall capital spending while maintaining growth in computing power investments [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The company expects revenues to grow from HKD 372.6 billion in 2023 to HKD 389.6 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.6% over the next few years [3][12]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is projected to increase from HKD 18.9 billion in 2023 to HKD 20.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1% [3][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from HKD 0.65 in 2023 to HKD 0.72 in 2024, indicating a growth of 11.8% [3][12]. - **Dividend Growth**: The company has consistently increased its dividend per share, with a projected dividend of HKD 0.43 for 2024, up 20.1% YoY, and a target payout ratio increasing to over 75% in the coming years [7][12]. - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure is forecasted to decrease from HKD 613.7 billion in 2024 to HKD 550 billion in 2025, while investments in computing power are expected to grow by 28% [7][12]. Market Position - The company holds a strong position in the telecommunications sector, with significant growth in its IoT (Internet of Things) connections and a leading position in the automotive IoT market [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on AI and cloud services, which are anticipated to drive future revenue growth [7].

买入 2025 年 03 月 19 日 2024 年全年利润增长 20.2%, 今年加大 DTC 业务的投入 王柏俊 852-25321915 patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 | 行业 | 服装纺织 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 5.69 港元 | | 目标价 | 7.03 港元 | | | （+23.5%） | | 股票代码 | 1368 | | 已发行股本 | 27.75 亿股 | | 市值 | 157.9 亿港元 | | 52 周高/低 | 7.13/3.58 港元 | | 每股净现值 | 3.14 人民币 | | 主要股东 | 丁水波及其家族信托 | | | （47.7%） | | | | 6 特步国际（1368） 更新报告 附录 1：主要财务报表 | <人民币> <百万>, 财务年度截至<12月31日> | | | | | | | <人民币> <百万>, 财务年度截至<12月31日> | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...