新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4904 期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 研究观点 AI 大模型周报 数字货币周报 科技行业周报：光模块、存储、液冷等行业近况更新 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 中国黄金国际 | 2099 | 买入 买入 185.63 | 167.07 | 11% | 1.030 | 0.940 | 10% | 1.340 | 1.140 | 18% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but suggests a focus on companies with strong delivery capabilities and market positioning in the light module and storage sectors [3]. Core Insights - The light module industry is transitioning from order expectations to actual deliveries, with significant implications for stock prices and future growth [3]. - The storage cycle is expected to last longer than previous cycles, potentially extending to 2-3 years due to heightened demand and supply constraints [5]. - The AI sector is driving new demand for storage solutions, as data needs to be activated and stored for model training and other applications [8]. Summary by Sections Light Modules - Demand for 800G light modules is projected at 55 million units, while 1.6T demand is estimated at 30 million units, with Nvidia and Google being major contributors [3]. - Supply chain dynamics indicate a normal decline in prices, with profit margins expected to remain strong despite supply shortages [3]. - Key players in the light chip market, such as Lumentum, are raising prices by 10-20%, benefiting upstream suppliers [3]. - Domestic companies like Source Technology and Yunling Optoelectronics are positioned to enter the global supply chain due to upstream shortages [3]. Storage - The storage cycle is anticipated to be longer than usual, with a potential duration of 2-3 years due to increased demand and supply shortages [5]. - Domestic companies like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies are expected to ramp up production, alleviating supply constraints [5]. - The report highlights the impact of rising prices on mid-to-low-end consumer electronics, which may face profitability challenges [5]. AI-Driven New Fields - The AI era necessitates the activation of cold data into hot data for model training, creating new storage demands [8]. - Supply-side constraints are evident as overseas manufacturers are not expanding production, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [8]. - Recommended companies in the storage module sector include Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Bawei Storage, each with unique strengths [8]. Liquid Cooling - The liquid cooling market is expected to see growth, particularly in overseas markets, with domestic companies yet to capitalize on this trend [10]. - Companies like Vertiv and Honeywell are leading in the overseas liquid cooling space [10]. Domestic Computing Power - The progress of domestic computing power construction is slow due to unclear policies on imported computing cards and compatibility issues [13]. - Companies like H Company, Cambrian, and Alibaba's T-head are highlighted as key players in the domestic computing power landscape [13]. Energy Storage and Photovoltaics - The energy storage sector is experiencing high demand, with certain suppliers already booked through mid-2026 [13]. - The photovoltaic industry is facing general market uncertainty, with speculation around its connection to U.S. energy shortages [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Robinhood Markets with a target price of $150.00, representing a 23% upside from the previous closing price [3][48]. Core Insights - Robinhood's financial performance in Q3 2025 showed significant growth, with total revenue reaching $1.274 billion, doubling year-over-year and increasing nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit surged 271% to $556 million, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.61, up 259% year-over-year [2][10][11]. - The trading business emerged as the primary growth driver, with trading revenue of $730 million, including a more than 300% increase in cryptocurrency revenue to $268 million. Interest income also grew by 66% to $456 million [2][11][12]. - The company is expanding its market share in various sectors, including stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies, while also launching new products aimed at professional traders and international clients [3][18]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $1.274 billion, a 100% increase year-over-year and a 29% increase quarter-over-quarter, exceeding market expectations by 5% [10]. - Net profit reached $556 million, reflecting a 271% year-over-year increase and a 44% quarter-over-quarter increase [10]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $742 million, with a profit margin of 58%, marking a 177% year-over-year growth [10]. - The average revenue per user increased to $191, an 82% year-over-year growth, indicating improved user quality [17]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - Trading revenue totaled $730 million, a 129% year-over-year increase, driven by significant growth in cryptocurrency, options, and stock trading [11][12]. - Cryptocurrency revenue alone reached $268 million, more than tripling year-over-year, supported by increased market activity and the acquisition of Bitstamp [11][12]. - Net interest income grew to $456 million, a 66% increase, primarily due to the expansion of interest-earning assets [11][12]. Strategic Developments - Robinhood is set to launch new products and services, including features for professional traders and banking services for Gold users, while also expanding its international presence [3][18]. - The company completed the acquisition of Bitstamp and plans to acquire WonderFi, enhancing its global footprint in the cryptocurrency sector [3][18]. - The prediction market business is rapidly growing, with an annualized revenue nearing $300 million as of October 2025 [3][7].

Financial Performance - Robinhood Markets reported total revenue of $1.274 billion for Q3 2025, doubling year-over-year and increasing nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter[5] - Net profit reached $556 million, a significant increase of 271% year-over-year and 44% quarter-over-quarter[5] - Adjusted EBITDA was $742 million, up 177% year-over-year, with a profit margin of 58%[5] Revenue Breakdown - Trading revenue amounted to $730 million, with cryptocurrency revenue tripling year-over-year to $268 million; options and stock revenues increased by 50% and 132%, respectively[6] - Net interest income grew by 66% to $456 million, while securities lending income surged by 193%[6] User Metrics - Average revenue per user increased to $191, an 82% year-over-year rise[6] - Retirement account assets grew by 144% to $24.2 billion, with adoption rates 2.5 times higher than regular accounts[6] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company is on track for annualized revenue of nearly $300 million by October 2025, a significant acceleration from $115 million in Q3[7] - New features targeting professional traders and international clients are being rolled out, with nearly 700,000 international customers[7] Financial Guidance and Valuation - The adjusted operating expense guidance for 2025 is raised to approximately $2.28 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in products and technology[8] - The target price for Robinhood is set at $150.00, representing a 23% upside from the previous closing price, with a PE ratio of 65x[9] Risks - Potential decline in retail user engagement and regulatory changes affecting payment for order flow (PFOF) could impact future performance[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 60.00 / USD 22.80, representing a potential upside of 36.2% / 36.8% from the current price [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements, leading to profitability in its "two wings" business segments [4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was CNY 1.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%, while total transaction volume remained stable at CNY 736.7 billion [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing quality, scale, and efficiency, with a solid cash reserve of approximately CNY 70 billion, which supports its stock buyback initiatives [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 77.78 billion in 2023, increasing to CNY 113.32 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [3][5]. - The net profit is projected to decline from CNY 5.89 billion in 2023 to CNY 3.60 billion in 2025, before rebounding to CNY 8.88 billion in 2027, indicating a recovery phase [3][5]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to follow a similar trend, with estimates of CNY 9.80 billion in 2023, dropping to CNY 5.76 billion in 2025, and then rising to CNY 9.67 billion in 2027 [3][5]. Business Performance - The company's existing home transaction volume reached CNY 5,056 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, while new home transaction volume was CNY 1,963 billion, down 13.7% [4]. - Non-property transaction services have increased their revenue contribution to 45%, with a profit contribution of 39.7%, indicating a diversification in revenue streams [4]. - The home decoration and rental businesses achieved profitability at the city level, contributing positively to the overall financial performance [4].

Group 1: Circle Internet Group, Inc (CRCL) - Circle is transitioning from a single product provider to a comprehensive platform service provider, leveraging its compliance advantages and strong ecosystem partnerships[8] - The target price for Circle is set at $125.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.2% from the current price of $98.30[3] - The company expects total revenue to grow from $1.45 billion in 2023 to $4.30 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.54%[12] Group 2: HIMS & HERS HEALTH (HIMS) - HIMS reported a 49% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, reaching $600 million[14] - The target price for HIMS is set at $56.80, representing a 43% upside from the current price of $39.75[16] - The company aims to achieve $1 billion in revenue for its HERS segment by 2026, with a long-term goal of $6.5 billion by 2030[16] Group 3: 贝壳 (BEKE) - 贝壳's total transaction volume for Q3 2025 was approximately 736.7 billion RMB, showing a stable year-over-year performance[22] - The target price for 贝壳 is set at 60.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 38.3% from the current price of 43.54 HKD[27] - The company has successfully reduced operational costs, with a 1.8% decrease in overall operating expenses in Q3 2025[22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Pacific Insurance (2328) with a target price of HKD 23.30, representing a 21.7% upside from the current price of HKD 18.62 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a structural transformation in its non-auto insurance business and is expanding internationally, which is expected to drive a second growth curve [5][8]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved insurance service revenue of CNY 385.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with net profit rising by 50.5% to CNY 40.3 billion [5]. - The non-auto insurance segment has become a core growth engine, with original premium income reaching CNY 223.06 billion, accounting for 50.3% of total premiums [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total investment income of CNY 35.9 billion, a 33% increase year-on-year, with an annualized total investment return rate of 5.4%, up by 0.8 percentage points [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is HKD 2.575, reflecting a 14% increase from the previous estimate [2]. Non-Auto Insurance Business - The report highlights that the non-auto insurance business is expected to benefit from new regulatory policies aimed at improving profitability and cost efficiency [6]. - The company aims to maintain a combined cost ratio of less than 96% for auto insurance and 99% for non-auto insurance in 2025 [6]. International Expansion - The international strategy is designed to significantly increase overseas business within five years, focusing on supporting Chinese enterprises' global expansion, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [7]. - The company has already established operations in Hong Kong and Thailand, with plans to expand into Europe and Southeast Asia [7]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 51.5 billion, CNY 54.3 billion, and CNY 59.1 billion, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory of 60%, 5%, and 9% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (388) with a target price raised to HKD 550.0, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the previous closing price [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, with revenue reaching HKD 21.9 billion (up 37% year-on-year) and net profit at HKD 13.4 billion (up 45% year-on-year) [3][4]. - The report highlights strong market activity, particularly in the cash market, with average daily trading volume doubling to HKD 256.4 billion (up 126% year-on-year) [3][4]. - The IPO market remains robust, with HKD 188.3 billion raised from 69 new listings, marking a threefold increase compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved an EBITDA of HKD 17.2 billion, reflecting a 48% year-on-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 79% (up 5 percentage points) [3]. - The report projects total revenue of HKD 28.1 billion for 2025, representing a 25.4% increase, and net profit of HKD 16.4 billion, a 26% increase [7]. - The diluted earnings per share are expected to rise to HKD 13.0 in 2025, with a projected dividend of HKD 11.6, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.7% [7]. Market and Strategic Developments - The report notes the successful diversification strategy of the company, with average daily contracts in the derivatives market increasing by 11% to 1.7 million contracts [4]. - The company continues to enhance its market structure, including lowering minimum tick sizes and exploring shorter settlement cycles, which are expected to improve market efficiency and product diversity [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong correlation between the company's performance and market trading volumes, suggesting that the company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market trends [5].

Group 1: Company Research - Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347, Buy): Revenue reached a historical high of $635 million in Q3 2025, up 20.7% YoY and 12.2% QoQ, with a gross margin of 13.5%[8] - Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI, Buy): Q3 revenue was $119 million, up 81.9% YoY, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 31%[15] - PetroChina (857, Buy): Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 2.17 trillion, down 3.9% YoY, with a net profit of CNY 126.3 billion, down 4.9% YoY[21] - GF Securities (1776, Buy): Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are CNY 14.39 billion, CNY 16.82 billion, and CNY 19.40 billion respectively[37] Group 2: Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a sustained demand for computing power driven by AI applications, with expectations for domestic chip production to ramp up in 2026[48] - The global market for optical modules is projected to see significant growth, with 800G and 1.6T module shipments expected to exceed 45 million and 28 million units respectively by 2026[53] - Risks include potential underperformance in production expansion, demand fluctuations, and currency exchange rate changes[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $42.2, indicating a potential upside of 47.7% from the current price of $28.57 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $119 million, which is within the guidance range of $115-127 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 81.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15% [3]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter and a 6 percentage point increase year-over-year, primarily due to improvements in business structure [3]. - The data center business revenue was $44 million, experiencing a decline due to the impact of product delivery schedules on revenue recognition, with related revenue expected to be recognized in Q4 [3]. - The revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is set at $125-140 million, with a Non-GAAP gross margin expected to be between 29-31%, anticipating significant growth in the data center business driven by the mass production of 400G single-mode optical modules and large-scale sample shipments of 800G products [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review and Outlook - The company is actively expanding production capacity to meet surging customer demand, with North American cloud providers increasing capital expenditure focused on AI computing [4]. - It is projected that global shipments of 800G and 1.6T optical modules will exceed 45 million and 28 million units, respectively, by 2026 [4]. - By the end of 2025, the company aims to achieve a production capacity of 100,000 units per month for both 800G and 400G modules, with further expansion expected in 2026 [4]. Collaboration with AWS - The company has made substantial progress in its collaboration with AWS, having completed certification for its 400G single-mode optical modules, which are expected to see significant shipment increases in Q4 2025 [4]. - The 800G single-mode optical modules are nearing the final stage of customer validation, with expectations for large-scale orders for final testing and certification [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $447 million, $1.259 billion, and $1.803 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be -$2 million, $192 million, and $350 million [5][6]. - The report anticipates a significant revenue and profit surge in 2026 due to the collaboration with AWS, assigning a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [5].