中国移动（0941） 更新报告 公司经营业绩稳中有进，派息率再创新高 | | | 罗凡环 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 行业 电讯服务 股价 79 港元 目标价 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代码 941.HK 已发行 H 股本 216.54 亿股 H 股总市值 16500 亿港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股净现值 73 港元 主要股东 中国移动香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公众股东 30.4% | | | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1,050,187 | 1,041,677 | 1,045,445 | 1,054,129 | 90 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price of HKD 6.0, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 4.8 [2][5][7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards a Token-based operational model in the AI era, with a continuous increase in dividend payout ratio, achieving a 75% payout rate ahead of the original 2026 target [3][7]. - Despite a stable revenue outlook, the company faced a decline in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) for the first time in recent years, indicating pressure on core business segments [7]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams, with significant growth in its data services and cloud business, particularly in the public cloud IaaS market [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift from "cloud transformation" to "intelligent cloud services," integrating AI into traditional business operations to optimize costs and improve management [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 529.56 billion, with a net profit of HKD 33.19 billion, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 0% and a slight decrease in net profit [6][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is HKD 0.37, down from HKD 0.41 in 2025, indicating a 10.5% decline [6][7]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at HKD 804 billion, a decrease of 14.1% year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing computing infrastructure [7]. - The dividend per share is projected to be HKD 0.28 for 2026, with a dividend yield of 5.8% [6][7]. Operational Metrics - As of the end of 2025, the mobile user base reached 439 million, with 302 million 5G users, representing a penetration rate of 68.8% [7][16]. - The mobile ARPU decreased to HKD 45.1, down 1.1% year-on-year, while the broadband ARPU also saw a decline to HKD 47.1 [7][16]. - The company’s cloud revenue reached HKD 1.207 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, solidifying its position as the second-largest player in the public cloud IaaS market in China [7].

中國移動（0941） 更新報告 公司經營業績穩中有進，派息率再創新高 買入 2026 年 4 月 1 日 羅凡環 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 行業 電訊服務 股價 79 港元 目標價 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代碼 941.HK 已發行 H 股本 216.54 億股 H 股總市值 16500 億港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股淨現值 73 港元 主要股東 中國移動香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公眾股東 30.4% ➢ 風險提示：公司分紅派息、ARPU 提升不及預期、行業政策影響、行業競爭加劇等。 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1, ...

中國電信（0728） 更新報告 買入 2026 年 4 月 1 日 派息分紅比率持續提高，AI 時代下向 Token 經營轉型 ➢ 風險提示：AIDC 和雲業務發展不及預期，ARPU 值下降及競爭加劇等。 羅凡環 852-2532 1539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 | 行業 | 電訊服務 | | --- | --- | | 股價 | 4.8 港元 | | 目標價 | 6.0 港元 | | | （+26%） | | 股票代碼 | 728.HK | | 已發行股本 | 915.07 億股 | | 市值 | 4400 億港元 | | 52 周高/低 | 6.3/4.8 港元 | | 每股淨現值 | 5.6 港元 | | 主要股東 | 中國電信集團：63.9% | | | 廣晟控股集團有限公 | | | 司：5.2% | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

華泰證券（6886） 更新報告 擴表與 AI 雙輪驅動，價值重估進行時 ➢ 重要風險: 1)市場系統性風險；2)政策監管風險；3）經營與改革風險。 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务年度截至12月31日 | | | 2024历史 2025历史 2026预测 2027预测 2028预测 | | | | | 营业收入(百万元) | 33,519.2 | 35,809.9 | 41,784.0 | 45,735.3 | 49,621.8 | | | 变动(%) | -8.4% | 6.8% | 16.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 15,351.2 | 16,383.5 | 20,780.0 | 23,301.7 | 25,815.7 | | | 变动(%) | 20.4% | 6.7% | 26.8% | 12.1% | 10.8% | | | 基本每股收益(元) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | | | 市盈率@15.36港元(倍 ...

扩表与 AI 双轮驱动，价值重估进行时 ➢ 重要风险: 1)市场系统性风险；2)政策监管风险；3）经营与改革风险。 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务年度截至12月31日 | | | 2024历史 2025历史 2026预测 2027预测 2028预测 | | | | | 营业收入(百万元) | 33,519.2 | 35,809.9 | 41,784.0 | 45,735.3 | 49,621.8 | | | 变动(%) | -8.4% | 6.8% | 16.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 15,351.2 | 16,383.5 | 20,780.0 | 23,301.7 | 25,815.7 | | | 变动(%) | 20.4% | 6.7% | 26.8% | 12.1% | 10.8% | | | 基本每股收益(元) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | | | 市盈率@15.36港元(倍) | 8.3 | 7.8 | ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4991 期 2026 年 3 月 31 日 星期二 研究观点 【公司研究】 现代牧业（1117,买入）：降本增效筑牢安全垫，静待奶肉双周期共振 亚朵酒店（ATAT，买入）：零售业绩持续高增，全年收入指引再次上调 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | 2027年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 现代牧业 | 1117 | 买入 买入 1.91 | | 1.34 | 43% | (0.155) | 0.022 | -805% | 0.078 | 0.056 | 39% | | 亚朵集团（美元） | ATAT | 买入 买入 53.20 | | 48.40 | 10% | 11.620 | 11. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 1.91, representing a potential upside of 38.5% from the current price of HKD 1.38 [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in both meat and milk prices, leading to significant revenue growth and a turnaround in profitability by 2026. The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are estimated at HKD 5.8 billion, HKD 14.2 billion, and HKD 20.1 billion respectively [7]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience despite a challenging industry environment, with a notable improvement in cash EBITDA, which grew by 2.6% to HKD 3.063 billion, and a gross margin increase of 1.4 percentage points to 27.4% [7]. - The report highlights the company's effective cost control measures, with the cost of milk sales per kilogram reduced to HKD 2.32, an 8.3% decrease year-on-year, and feed costs down by 9.2% to HKD 1.77 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, is reported at HKD 12.6 billion, a decline of 4.9% year-on-year. However, the company is expected to return to growth with projected revenues of HKD 13.5 billion in 2026, HKD 14.6 billion in 2027, and HKD 15.7 billion in 2028 [4][9]. - The net profit for 2025 is reported at a loss of HKD 12.04 billion, but a significant recovery is anticipated with a net profit of HKD 579 million in 2026 and HKD 1.42 billion in 2027 [4][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from a loss of HKD 0.14 in 2025 to a profit of HKD 0.07 in 2026, and further to HKD 0.18 in 2027 [4][9]. Industry Dynamics - The report indicates a significant restructuring in the supply-demand dynamics of the raw milk industry, with a continued decline in national dairy cow inventory expected to lead to potential supply shortages in 2026-2027 [7]. - The demand for domestic raw milk is increasing as imports of bulk powder have halved, and the growth in downstream processing capacity is gradually improving the supply-demand relationship [7]. - The report notes that the beef cycle is also showing signs of recovery, with the price of culled cows rebounding over 30% from its low in 2024, which is expected to provide additional revenue opportunities for the company [7].

直觉外科（ISRG） 更新报告 2026 年手术量增速指引调降至 13-15% 25 年公司收入同比+21%： 直觉外科 2025 年营收增长 21%至 101 亿美元，其中 Q4 营收同比增长 19%至 28.7 亿美元。25 年公司仪器及备件收入达到 60.2 亿美元 （+18.5% ），系统收 入 24.7 亿美元（ +25.8% ），服务收入 15.7 亿美元 （+20.3%）。公司毛利率同比下降 1.5 个百分点至 66.0%，下滑反映了设施成本的 增加，包括与新制造产能相关的折旧、Ion 和达芬奇 5 收入中低利润率产品占比增 加，以及与达芬奇 5 相关的服务成本上升。经营费用+12.5%至 37.0 亿美元，归母 利润同比+23.0%至 28.6 亿美元,利润率同比上升 0.6 个百分点至 28.6%，其中 25 年 Q4 公司归母利润同比增长 15.9%至 8.0 亿美元，利润率同比下降 0.7 个百分点 至 27.7%。25 年底公司净现金为 85.3 亿美元，25 年公司以 478 美元的每股均价回 购 23 亿美元。 ➢25 年销售情况：公司的产品阶梯布局完善，从拥有唯一力反馈（能减少对 ...

Group 1: Tencent Financial Performance - Tencent's Q4 2025 revenue reached RMB 194.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8%[5] - Full-year revenue for 2025 was RMB 751.8 billion, representing an 8% year-on-year growth[5] - Q4 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 58.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year, while full-year net profit was RMB 224.8 billion, a 16% increase[5] Group 2: AI and Business Growth - AI product investments exceeded RMB 18 billion in 2025, marking a historical high, primarily for AI computing power procurement and model training[5] - Marketing services revenue in Q4 2025 was RMB 41.1 billion, up 17% year-on-year, driven by enhanced user engagement and AI technology upgrades[7] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue in Q4 2025 was RMB 60.8 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth[8] Group 3: Valuation and Ratings - The target price for Tencent is set at HKD 780, indicating a potential upside of 54.33% from the last closing price[9] - The estimated EPS for 2026 is HKD 34.577, down 5% from previous estimates, while the 2025 EPS is projected at HKD 31.180, a decrease of 1%[2] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on robust growth prospects and AI-driven business enhancements[11] Group 4: Intuitive Surgical Performance - Intuitive Surgical's 2025 revenue grew by 21% to USD 10.1 billion, with Q4 revenue increasing by 19% to USD 2.87 billion[15] - The company expects a reduction in surgical volume growth guidance for 2026 to 13-15% due to various market pressures[17] - The target price for Intuitive Surgical is set at USD 482.2, reflecting a 2.6% upside potential from the current price[17]