Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $300.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.04% from the current stock price of $256.33 [2][6][7]. Core Insights - The company has signed a 6GW agreement with OpenAI and plans to launch its first rack-mounted data center product next year, which is expected to enhance its market position in AI GPU sales [3][4]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of $9.25 billion, a year-over-year increase of 35.6%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus estimates [3]. - The company anticipates strong growth in AI GPU sales, with projected revenues of $7 billion for the year, driven by increased orders from major clients [4]. - The client product market share continues to grow, with record sales in the Ryzen series, and the gaming segment has exceeded expectations [5][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, total revenue is projected to reach $34.146 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 32.4% [8]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be $7.362 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in earnings per share [8]. - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52.4% for revenue and 75.2% for Non-GAAP net profit from 2025 to 2027 [6][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The data center segment is expected to see a CAGR of 80.1% from 2025 to 2027, with significant contributions from AI GPU sales [10][11]. - The company is projected to capture an increasing share of the data center market, with AMD's share expected to rise from 18% to 24% over the next few years [11]. - The collaboration with OpenAI is anticipated to generate over $100 billion in revenue, enhancing the company's software adaptability for data centers [4][6].

Group 1: Coinbase Global (COIN) - Q3 2025 total revenue reached $1.869 billion, up 55% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter[5] - Adjusted EPS was $1.44, exceeding expectations by 40%[5] - Subscription and service revenue increased to $747 million, contributing to a more balanced revenue structure[6] - Target price adjusted to $370.00, representing a 15.88% upside from the previous closing price[8] Group 2: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Q3 2025 revenue was $9.25 billion, a 35.6% increase year-over-year, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of $8.74 billion[14] - Non-GAAP net income reached $1.97 billion, a 30.7% increase year-over-year[14] - Target price set at $300.00, indicating a 17.04% potential upside from the current price[18] Group 3: China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 339.47 billion, a 0.81% increase year-over-year[21] - Net profit for the same period was CNY 28.53 billion, up 6.11% year-over-year[21] - Target price set at HKD 25.98, suggesting a 25.0% upside from the current price[26]

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4896 期 2025 年 11 月 5 日 星期三 研究观点 【公司研究】 新东方（EDU.US/9901.HK）经调整经营利润率提升，加码股东回报计划 中国神华 (1088，买入）： 业绩承压但韧性凸显，一体化优势与资产注入构筑长期 价值 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 【行业评论】 数字货币周报 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 新东方（美元） | EDU | 买入 买入 74.50 | 59.60 | 25% | 0.230 | 0.250 | -8% | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0% | | 中国神华 | 1 ...

11 时代电气（3898） 更新报告 轨交业务平稳释放，看好反内卷政策下新兴业务发展 ➢ 25 年前三季度业绩稳健：收入 188.3 亿元，同比增长 14.9%； 归母净利润 27.2 亿元，同比增长 10.9%；扣非净利润 26.1 亿元， 同比增长 30.9%。分业务看：轨道交通业务实现收入 103.1 亿元， 同比增长 9.2%；新兴装备业务实现收入人民币 84.3 亿元，同比增 长 22.3%，其中基础器件收入 38.4 亿元，同比增长 30.4%，新能 源发电收入 15.9 亿元，同比增长 25.3%，新能源汽车电驱 18.7 亿 元，同比增长 9.3%。前三季度公司综合毛利率同比提升 3.1 个百 分点至 32.4%，主要为收入结构变化所致。 ➢ 轨交业务平稳增长，维保占比提升，新业务高速成长：国铁 客运客运量屡创新高，带动 25 年动车组招标超预期，订单持续交 付推动业绩平稳增长。以旧换新政策推动老旧内燃机车陆续退出市 场，给机车带来持续增量需求。25 年前三季度维保业务占轨交收 入比例约 22%，相比去年同期高速增长，看好国铁和城轨的维保 需求释放。此外，公司在轨交领域持续拓展新领域，通信信号 ...

Group 1: China Ping An (2318) - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 132.856 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%[6] - The new business value (NBV) for life and health insurance grew significantly to 35.724 billion CNY, up 46.2% year-on-year[7] - The first-year premium income was 141.769 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[7] - The operating profit for the first three quarters was 116.264 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%[6] - The target price is set at 92.7 HKD, representing a potential upside of 65% from the current price[11] Group 2: Pop Mart (9992) - The company reported a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations[17] - Domestic revenue increased by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%[17] - The target price is set at 400.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 75.3% from the current price[25] Group 3: Alphabet (GOOGL) - Alphabet achieved a revenue of 102.3 billion USD in Q3 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year, marking its first quarter with over 100 billion USD in revenue[30] - The net profit for the quarter was 35 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33%[30] - The target price is raised to 350 USD, suggesting a potential upside of 27% from the current price[34]

Group 1: Netflix (NFLX) - Investment Rating: Buy with a target price of 1,319.00 USD, representing a 20.5% upside from the current price of 1,094.69 USD [3][13] - Core Viewpoint: Short-term tax issues and industry consolidation do not alter the long-term growth logic of Netflix, as global users continue to shift towards streaming, with cable TV market share declining [8][9] - 2025 Q3 Performance Summary: Revenue grew 17% year-on-year to 11.51 billion USD, with a diluted EPS increase of 9% to 5.87 USD. Free cash flow rose 21% to 2.66 billion USD [11][12] Group 2: 伟仕佳杰 (856) - Investment Rating: Buy with a target price of 14.8 HKD, indicating a 47.6% upside from the current price of 10.03 HKD [4][18] - Core Viewpoint: The company is deeply engaged in the Asian ICT distribution market, with rapid growth in cloud and AI businesses, projecting a 28% increase in cloud revenue for 2024 [17][18] - Financial Performance: The company has maintained a consistent revenue growth rate of 24% since its listing, with a return on equity (ROE) above 10% for 23 consecutive years [20][22] Group 3: Uranium Industry - Core Viewpoint: The uranium sector is entering a new development cycle driven by increased demand, midstream capacity constraints, and a decrease in secondary supply [34][35] - Investment Opportunities: Companies like Cameco (CCJ) are well-positioned to benefit from the supply-demand imbalance, with a target price of 101 USD and a buy rating [37] - Market Dynamics: The nuclear energy sector contributes significantly to global electricity generation, with uranium demand expected to rise due to geopolitical factors and energy transition policies [35][36]

Group 1: Company Research - Cameco (CCJ.US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $101, indicating a potential upside of 20.9% from the current price of $83.5[7] - The company holds an 18% global market share in uranium production, with a 2023 average extraction cost of $26–32 per pound U3O8, which is competitive compared to other regions[5] - Expected revenues for Cameco are projected at RMB 348.9 billion, RMB 403.7 billion, and RMB 436.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 70.7 billion, RMB 111 billion, and RMB 133.5 billion[7] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Centrus Energy (LEU.US) is rated as a "Sell" with a target price of $231, reflecting a downside of 26.6% from the current price of $314.8[11] - The company is one of only two authorized to produce commercial low-enriched uranium (LEU), with a significant market opportunity due to U.S. policies reducing reliance on Russian uranium[11] - Oklo (OKLO.US) is also rated as a "Sell" with a target price of $92.5, indicating a potential downside of 23% from the current price of $120.1[17]

Group 1: Zijin Mining (2899) - Q3 2025 revenue reached HKD 864.89 billion, up 8.14% year-on-year[7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was HKD 145.72 billion, a 57.14% increase year-on-year[7] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was HKD 2542 billion, up 10.33% year-on-year, with net profit at HKD 378.64 billion, a 55.45% increase[7] - Gold production for the first three quarters reached 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year[8] - Target price raised to HKD 43.29, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a 36% upside potential[10] Group 2: Meituan-W (3690) - Q2 2025 revenue was HKD 918.4 billion, up 11.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations[15] - Operating profit dropped to HKD 2.26 billion, down 98% year-on-year, with a margin of 0.2%[15] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was HKD 14.93 billion, down 89% year-on-year[15] - Target price reduced from HKD 230 to HKD 153, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite short-term profit pressures[18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 43.29, representing a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HKD 31.76 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong resilience with performance exceeding market expectations, driven by both gold and copper production [5]. - The company has a diversified global mineral portfolio, effectively mitigating risks associated with price fluctuations of individual metals [5]. - The long-term growth strategy is clear, with ongoing expansions at major mines expected to support production growth in the coming years [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of CNY 293.4 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of CNY 21.1 billion, reflecting a 5.4% growth [3][6]. - The forecast for 2025 predicts revenues of CNY 363.2 billion, a 20% increase, and net profit of CNY 53.1 billion, a significant 65.7% growth [3][6]. - The company achieved a third-quarter revenue of CNY 86.5 billion in 2025, an 8.14% year-over-year increase, with net profit reaching CNY 14.6 billion, up 57.14% [5]. Production and Operational Highlights - Gold production in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 65 tons, a 20% increase, primarily from projects in Ghana, Shanxi, Guizhou, and Serbia [5]. - Copper production for the same period was 830,000 tons, a 5.1% increase, despite a slight decline due to flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The company is set to enhance copper production by 150,000 to 200,000 tons with the completion of the tailings dam at the Jilong copper mine by the end of 2025 [5]. Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from CNY 0.80 in 2023 to CNY 2.00 in 2025, reflecting a 65.1% increase [3][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 40.9 in 2023 to 16.4 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [3][6]. - The dividend per share is forecasted to rise from CNY 0.26 in 2023 to CNY 0.64 in 2025, with a dividend yield increasing from 0.8% to 1.9% [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable competitive landscape in the instant retail industry, with Meituan maintaining its leading position [2]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, but competition is stabilizing, with expectations that quarterly losses may peak in Q3 [2]. - Meituan continues to lead the market with a share of 68% as of the second week of October, while Alibaba (Ele.me) holds 22% and JD.com remains stable at 10% [3]. - User growth is highlighted, with JD.com showing a remarkable weekly DAU growth of 35%, which is crucial for order volume increase [2][3]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Industry - The competition in the instant retail sector is stabilizing, with Meituan leveraging its first-mover advantage [2]. - The cost of acquiring riders is normalizing, with a notable decrease in the overlap of 3P riders as of September [2]. - Meituan's delivery efficiency is particularly strong in lower-tier cities, while JD.com has achieved efficient fulfillment in certain areas, although its overall coverage needs improvement [2][3]. User Engagement - JD.com has the highest weekly DAU growth at 35%, while Alibaba's Taobao relies on its membership system for steady growth [2][3]. - Meituan has a large user base but needs to enhance user activity levels [2]. Competitive Strategies - Meituan focuses on quality competition and upgrading its 1P flash warehouses to strengthen branding [3]. - Alibaba is integrating resources to enhance collaboration between Tmall and offline merchants, while JD.com is deepening its supply chain advantages [3]. Market Performance - As of October 20, JD.com reported over 52,000 brands with transaction amounts increasing by over 300% year-on-year, with significant growth in consumer electronics and AI-related products [7]. - The global sales segment of JD.com is also experiencing rapid growth, with over 100% increase in transaction volume for various categories [7]. Cloud Services Expansion - Alibaba Cloud has launched its second data center in Dubai to meet the growing demand for cloud and AI services in the Middle East, expanding its global footprint to 29 regions and 92 availability zones [4][5]. Gaming Sector - Tencent's new game "Gray Realm Walker" has generated significant attention, showcasing its exploration in the global FPS market [6]. International Expansion - ByteDance's overseas app "Cici" has topped download charts in several countries, reflecting a strategic approach to leverage AI technology while minimizing geopolitical risks [8].