Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with a target price of $300.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.47% from the current price of $213.57 [1][4]. Core Insights - AMD is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its AI GPU sales, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 82.3% from 2026 to 2028 [7]. - The company anticipates strong demand for its next-generation data center products, particularly in the AI sector, with a forecast of over 60% annual growth in data center revenue over the next 3-5 years [4]. - AMD's client product market share continues to grow, with a notable increase in desktop and laptop revenue, and plans to launch a more extensive AI PC product line [4]. - The gaming business has shown robust holiday revenue growth, and the embedded business is recovering, contributing positively to overall performance [4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, AMD's total revenue is projected to be $25.785 billion, increasing to $81.437 billion by 2028, reflecting a growth rate of 13.7% in 2024 and 22.3% in 2028 [3][9]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise from $5.420 billion in 2024 to $23.065 billion in 2028, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from $3.3 to $14.3 over the same period [3][9]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 49.4% in 2024 to 56.6% in 2028, indicating enhanced profitability [9][10]. - The company’s operating expenses are expected to grow, but at a controlled rate, with R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing from 25.0% in 2024 to 20.5% in 2028 [9][10].

Group 1: Company Overview - AMD is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $300, indicating a potential upside of 40.47% from the current price of $213.57[5] - The company has a market capitalization of $348.2 billion, with a 52-week high of $267.08 and a low of $76.48[5] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, AMD reported revenue of $10.27 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $9.65 billion[7] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 54.3%, up by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, while operating profit reached $1.75 billion, a 101.1% increase[7] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2025 was $2.52 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 41.8%[7] Group 3: Future Projections - AMD's revenue guidance for Q1 2026 is set at $9.8 billion, which includes $100 million from MI308 sales in China, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.4%[7] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% for its data center business over the next 3-5 years, with AI business revenues expected to reach hundreds of billions by 2027[8] Group 4: Market Share and Product Development - AMD's client segment revenue grew by 33.9% to $3.1 billion, with desktop and laptop market shares at 33.6% and 21.9%, respectively[9] - The company plans to launch a more extensive AI PC product line this year, following the successful release of the Ryzen AI 400 mobile processors[9] Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected sales of AI acceleration chips, lower-than-expected growth in PC market share, and challenges in the recovery of gaming and embedded businesses[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies across various sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the near future [12]. Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a significant shift towards AI applications, with traditional SaaS software facing headwinds due to the emergence of AI tools that automate various tasks [4][5]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, with supply constraints leading to a focus on leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [6]. - The AI-driven inflation is affecting the electronics industry, with price increases observed in power devices and other components [7]. - The report highlights the importance of CPU performance in the Agentic AI era, suggesting that CPU shortages could enhance profitability for leading companies in this space [6]. - The advanced packaging industry is poised for growth due to increased demand driven by AI investments, with recommendations for companies like Longji Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics [8]. - Domestic computing power is expected to see significant opportunities, particularly with the launch of new generation chips [9]. - The IC substrate supply chain is facing bottlenecks, with recommendations for domestic companies that could benefit from price increases [10]. Summary by Sections Technology Sector - AI applications are gaining traction, leading to concerns about the impact on traditional SaaS [4]. - Major companies are releasing AI programming tools, enhancing productivity in various fields [5]. Optical Modules - Strong demand is anticipated in the optical module industry, with supply constraints favoring leading firms [6]. Electronics Industry - AI inflation is spreading, causing price hikes in various electronic components, particularly in power devices [7]. CPU Market - The performance of CPUs is becoming increasingly critical, with potential shortages expected to boost profitability for leading firms [6]. Advanced Packaging - The advanced packaging sector is expected to benefit from AI investments, with several companies recommended for investment [8]. Domestic Computing Power - New generation computing chips are set to launch, presenting significant opportunities for domestic firms [9]. IC Substrate Supply Chain - The IC substrate market is experiencing supply constraints, with recommendations for companies likely to benefit from price increases [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's stock price experienced a significant drop due to rumors regarding an increase in value-added tax, which was later clarified to not affect Tencent's core business, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [2]. - Tencent's AI initiatives are advancing, with the launch of a technical blog by the chief AI scientist, showcasing a new benchmark that addresses the limitations of current models in real-time learning, which could enhance Tencent's competitive edge in AI applications [3]. - The "Yuanbao" app has gained significant traction, reaching the top of the App Store with an estimated peak daily active users (DAU) exceeding 20 million, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [4]. - The return of the mobile version of "QQ Classic Farm" is expected to activate long-tail users and contribute an estimated revenue of 1 to 2 billion yuan in its first year, reflecting Tencent's strategy to leverage classic IPs for user engagement [5]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - Tencent's stock price fell below 600 HKD due to market misinterpretation of tax changes, but the fundamentals remain intact, presenting a low-cost entry point for investors [2]. AI Developments - The launch of the CL-bench benchmark by Tencent's AI team aims to improve real-time learning capabilities, marking a shift from merely chasing parameters to defining paradigms in AI [3]. App Performance - The "Yuanbao" app's success in the App Store indicates a strong user engagement strategy, although concerns about user retention in the WeChat ecosystem remain [4]. Game Strategy - The reintroduction of "QQ Classic Farm" aims to activate dormant users and is projected to generate significant revenue, showcasing Tencent's focus on mobile adaptations of classic games [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a focus on the company, indicating that it is undervalued with a reasonable valuation range of over HKD 25 billion [21]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from traditional generic drugs to a dual-driven strategy focusing on "aesthetic medicine and innovative drugs," leading to a significant revenue increase in the aesthetic segment [21]. - The aesthetic medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 81% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, contributing significantly to the company's overall revenue growth [4][11]. - The innovative drug segment is expected to enter a revenue realization phase with the commercialization of new drugs, enhancing the company's financial outlook [12][16]. Summary by Sections Aesthetic Medicine - In H1 2025, aesthetic medicine revenue increased by 81% to HKD 5.9 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 8 percentage points to 73% [4][11]. - The core product, Letybo (botulinum toxin), has a market penetration of less than 2% in China, indicating substantial growth potential compared to higher penetration rates in the US and South Korea [5]. - The company has three major products approved in 2025, including facial fillers and water light needles, which are expected to drive significant sales growth [9][10]. Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug segment reported a 30% revenue increase to HKD 0.17 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on gastrointestinal and oncology treatments [12]. - The company has successfully commercialized its first innovative PPI drug, which is expected to maintain its price in the national basic medical insurance directory [12][14]. - The company holds a 49.13% stake in Xuan Zhu Bio, which has a market capitalization of HKD 34.5 billion, further enhancing its financial position [12]. Biopharmaceuticals - The biopharmaceutical segment, focusing on diabetes, has a comprehensive pipeline with over 20 products, and revenue is expected to see explosive growth in the next 2-3 years [17][18]. - The company reported a 40-fold increase in revenue to HKD 0.39 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on insulin and innovative diabetes treatments [17][18]. Generic Drugs - Generic drug revenue decreased by 16% to HKD 5.0 billion in H1 2025, accounting for 44% of total revenue, but the impact is expected to lessen as aesthetic and innovative drug segments grow [19]. - Key products include Clinao (a unique injection) and a mucosal solution for children, which are positioned to capture niche markets [19]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by aesthetic and innovative drugs, alongside reduced R&D expenses [20]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 89% in H1 2025, reflecting strong cash flow management [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla with a target price of $520.00, representing a 23% upside from the current price of $421.90 [3][5]. Core Insights - Tesla is accelerating the expansion of its Robotaxi fleet and moving towards large-scale AI and autonomous driving solutions. The Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, is set to begin production in April 2026, which is expected to significantly optimize cost per mile and increase utilization [5][29]. - By the end of 2026, Tesla aims to have its Robotaxi service operational in 25-50% of the U.S. market, with over 500 vehicles already deployed in the Bay Area and Austin [5][29]. - The company is transitioning to a subscription model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) service, which currently has nearly 1.1 million paid users, representing a 12% penetration rate among existing vehicles [5][35]. - Tesla plans to invest $2 billion in xAI to enhance its AI capabilities, which will integrate with its vehicle ecosystem [5][31]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Tesla's total revenue is projected to be $97.69 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.95% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to grow significantly in the following years, reaching $176.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is estimated at $7.96 billion, with a projected increase to $17.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - The report indicates that Tesla's automotive gross margin is expected to recover to 17.9% in the fourth quarter, with a focus on improving production efficiency and cost management [10][12]. Production and Capacity - Tesla plans to cease production of the Model S and Model X in early 2026 to repurpose the production lines for the Cybertruck, with a long-term production target of 1 million units annually [5][26]. - The Cybercab is expected to become the highest volume model in the long term, although initial production ramp-up may be slow due to the use of new customized components [5][29]. - Tesla's global production capacity is projected to exceed 2.35 million units, with significant expansions planned in Texas and Nevada [5][26]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, estimating Tesla's revenue for 2026 to 2028 at $114 billion, $141 billion, and $176 billion, respectively. The calculated fair stock price of $520.00 corresponds to a 166x multiple of projected Non-GAAP earnings per share for 2026 [5][33].

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4960 期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 星期五 研究观点 【公司研究】 新东方（EDU.US/9901.HK）FY26Q2 业绩表现超预期，全年收入指引上调 【公司评论】 四环医药(460.HK）：仿制药触底中，轩竹生物成功分拆，创新药进入收获期，惠升生 物布局糖尿病全管线也迎来成果兑现，医美肉毒素和新品大品种带动高速增长 评级变化 | 公司 | 评级 代码 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新 旧 | 新 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 新东方（美元） | EDU 买入 买入 78.00 | 74.50 | 5% | 0.230 | 0.230 | 0% | 0.310 | 0.300 | 3% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 ...

Group 1: Tesla (TSLA) Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi fleet is expected to expand significantly, covering 25-50% of the U.S. by the end of 2026, with over 500 vehicles already operational in Austin[5] - The target price for Tesla is set at $520.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating, with projected revenues of $114 billion, $141.1 billion, and $176.9 billion for 2026 to 2028[6] - The company is transitioning to a subscription sales model, which may negatively impact short-term margins but is expected to enhance recurring revenue in the long run[5] Group 2: TSMC (TSM) Insights - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 reached NT$1,046.09 billion (approximately $33.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 30.3%[9] - The target price for TSMC is adjusted to $450.00, with a projected AI revenue CAGR exceeding 58% over the next five years[12] - TSMC's advanced process technology contributed 77% of revenue, with a long-term gross margin target of over 56%[10]

Market Performance - First Call portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 17% from October 2025 to present, outperforming QQQ (4.48%) and SPY (4.87%) significantly[5] - In January 2026, the First Call portfolio recorded a monthly return of 10.58%[5] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Brazilian Real appreciated by 5.79% against the US Dollar in January, while the Australian Dollar also showed strength[8] - Emerging markets outperformed the US market in January, with South Korea (EWY) leading at 25.9%, followed by Peru (EPU) at 19.7%, Colombia (COL) at 17.73%, and Brazil (EWZ) at 16.59%[10] Investment Strategy Adjustments - The portfolio adjusted positions by liquidating high-volatility stocks and increasing holdings in more stable assets, such as raising the position in CCJ to 10%[8] - Cash reserves were increased to allow for potential buying opportunities in the market[8] Economic Outlook - The US Dollar is expected to stabilize or appreciate in the short term, with potential upward movement due to technical support from short covering in February[20] - The Federal Reserve's recent stance indicates a stable economic expansion, which may limit the appreciation of the Euro and Yen against the Dollar[20] Technology and AI Developments - AI applications like Clawdbot and cowork are gaining traction, enhancing operational efficiency despite concerns over permissions and costs[21] - The integration of Gemini mode in Google Chrome is expected to enhance the ecosystem's capabilities, making it more user-friendly and powerful[21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2] Core Insights - Tencent is undergoing a strategic transformation driven by AI, with a focus on organizational restructuring and cloud business profitability milestones. The CEO, Ma Huateng, emphasized that AI is the only area worth significant investment at this time, and the company has successfully transitioned to self-developed products [2][3] - The launch of the "Yuanbao" project marks a significant step in Tencent's "AI + social" strategy, aiming to enhance user engagement through integrated social features and AI capabilities. Tencent plans to invest 1 billion yuan to promote this initiative, targeting exponential growth in AI user numbers during the 2026 Spring Festival [3] - Tencent's gaming business is thriving, with overseas revenue exceeding 10 billion USD, accounting for approximately 30% of total gaming revenue. The company has regained confidence in its core gaming operations, providing stable cash flow and growth potential [4] - In response to challenges in the short drama sector, Tencent Video is shifting towards an "advertising-driven" model while maintaining high-quality long-form content. The company has already produced several successful short drama projects and is exploring new ways to balance content depth and traffic efficiency [5] Summary by Sections Strategic Overview - Tencent's current strategy focuses on AI-driven organizational restructuring and achieving profitability in its cloud business, with a clear commitment to investing in AI technologies [2] AI Initiatives - The "Yuanbao" project represents a critical advancement in Tencent's AI and social strategy, integrating various social features and aiming for significant user growth through substantial promotional investments [3] Gaming Performance - Tencent's gaming division is performing robustly, with a notable increase in overseas revenue, showcasing the company's strong competitive advantage and ability to adapt to market changes [4] Content Strategy - Tencent Video is adapting to market pressures by transitioning to an advertising-driven model while continuing to invest in high-quality content, aiming to leverage its large user base for enhanced revenue generation [5]