Group 1 - The stock price of TAL Education Group increased by 17.94% [1] - Noah Holdings saw a rise of 4.10% in its stock price [1] - Yika Technology's stock price rose by 4.57% [1] - NIO Inc. experienced a stock price increase of 3.81% [1] - Atour Group's stock price went up by 3.60% [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Hotel Sector - **Context**: The industry is transitioning into a more normalized phase after post-pandemic volatility, with supply growth slowing due to structural reasons [1][4] Core Insights - **Supply Growth**: - Supply growth has decelerated from double-digit expansion in 1H25 to approximately 7-8% year-over-year in 2H25, and further to 5-6% in 4Q25. This trend is expected to continue into 2026 [4] - Factors contributing to this slowdown include softer RevPAR performance and the end of the post-pandemic rebound, leading to more cautious investment decisions [4] - **RevPAR Outlook**: - Both H World and Atour expect RevPAR to improve year-over-year in 2026, but with differing levels of optimism. H World is more positive about a return to growth, while Atour remains cautious due to macro uncertainties, particularly in business travel [4] - **Regulatory Environment**: - Regulatory scrutiny on Trip.com is expected to have limited direct impact on large hotel groups like H World and Atour, as Trip.com accounts for a small percentage of their traffic. However, it may improve industry transparency and pricing norms [5] Company-Specific Insights - **H World and Atour**: - Both companies are expected to outgrow the industry with sustainable hotel expansion and projected EPS CAGRs of 19% and 27% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1] - H World and Atour are trading at P/E ratios of 20x and 17x for 2026E, respectively, following strong performance in 2025 [1] - **Atour's Retail Business**: - Atour's retail segment is viewed as a core engine for long-term revenue growth, targeting a five-year CAGR of over 15%, which is expected to outpace hotel revenue growth. The current retail revenue constitutes about 40% of total revenue [5] - The total market for Atour's retail products is approximately RMB 300 billion, with significant room for growth as online penetration and brand awareness increase [5] Additional Considerations - **Market Performance**: - In 2025, H World and Atour's stock prices increased by 42% and 47%, respectively, compared to a 28% increase in MSCI China [1] - **Investment Recommendation**: - The recommendation is to accumulate Atour shares, given its growth potential and current valuation compared to H World [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The lodging industry in China is experiencing a shift towards quality growth, with consumers prioritizing "value-for-quality" as spending power has not fully recovered [3][11] - Domestic travel showed resilience in 2025, with a 18% year-over-year (YoY) growth in domestic travel, although per capita spending decreased by 6% YoY [3][18] - The lodging industry is still under pressure, with overall RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) remaining sluggish due to oversupply and slow business travel recovery [3][29] Company-Specific Insights H World (HTHT US / 1179 HK) - **Recommendation**: Outperform with a target price of USD 59 / HKD 46, benefiting from an asset-light business transformation aimed at expanding margins [3][11][60] - **Financial Performance**: - Expected RevPAR growth of 4% YoY in 2026, with EBITDA margins projected to increase from 29% in 2024 to 35% in 2026 [4][11] - Net income forecasted to rise from RMB 3,048 million in 2024 to RMB 5,433 million in 2026 [4] - **Market Position**: H World is focusing on midscale and upper midscale segments, with 53% of its portfolio in these categories as of Q3 2025 [34] - **Direct Booking Strategy**: Direct bookings have reached 80%, reducing reliance on online travel agencies (OTAs) [3][37] Atour (ATAT US) - **Recommendation**: Outperform with a target price of USD 48 [3][11][60] - **Financial Performance**: - Expected RevPAR growth of 3% YoY in 2026, with EBITDA margins projected to stabilize around 24% [4] - Revenue growth forecasted to increase from RMB 9,783.9 million in 2025 to RMB 14,107.7 million in 2027 [9] - **Market Position**: Atour is well-positioned in the midscale segment, with a focus on quality hotels and a strategic goal of operating 2,000 quality hotels [34] Jinjiang (600754 CH) - **Recommendation**: Underperform with a target price of RMB 20 [3][11][60] - **Financial Performance**: - Expected RevPAR growth of 3% YoY in 2026, but lower operating efficiency compared to peers [4][11] - Revenue forecasted to increase from RMB 13,464.9 million in 2025 to RMB 15,039.7 million in 2027 [10] - **Market Position**: Jinjiang is focusing on the midscale segment, which accounts for 62% of its total network, but faces challenges with older properties needing renovation [34] Key Trends and Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable shift towards quality accommodations at reasonable prices, with consumers prioritizing value over luxury [34] - **Direct Booking Growth**: Major hotel groups are enhancing their membership systems and direct booking channels, leading to improved customer loyalty [3][37] - **Market Dynamics**: The hotel industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with leading brands gaining market share despite overall sluggish RevPAR recovery [3][29] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected RevPAR growth, prolonged recovery in business travel, and market competition leading to potential market-share loss [13][47] - Jinjiang faces specific challenges related to its operating efficiency and the need for a turnaround in its overseas business [11][13] Conclusion The lodging industry in China is navigating a complex landscape characterized by a focus on quality growth and changing consumer preferences. Leading companies like H World and Atour are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while Jinjiang faces challenges that may hinder its performance relative to peers.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the hotel industry [6] Core Views - The domestic hotel industry is at a historical cycle bottom, with expectations for RevPAR to bottom out and recover in 2026 [31] - The industry is experiencing a shift from an "OCC first" strategy to a "best RevPAR" strategy among leading players, indicating a focus on pricing power and revenue management [43][49] - The REITs framework is evolving, allowing for better capital management and operational efficiency among leading hotel groups [64] Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Industry Valuation Discussion - The market capitalization of leading domestic hotel players has shown non-linear growth, driven by cyclical turning points and capital consolidation [12] - Valuation frameworks are anchored by macroeconomic cycles, with growth acting as a catalyst, and long-term views focusing on scale and ROE [17][28] 2. Current State of the Domestic Hotel Industry - The supply-demand relationship is adjusting, with a potential recovery in RevPAR expected in 2026 as the market stabilizes [31] - Demand for leisure travel remains strong, while business travel is recovering at a slower pace, influenced by service consumption policies [41][66] 3. Sector Valuation Recovery Initiation - Leading hotel companies are expected to show performance elasticity, with historical valuation recovery patterns suggesting potential for significant upside [3] - The report recommends overweighting leading hotel stocks, including Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotel, Atour, and Junting Hotel, based on their growth potential and market positioning [3][6]

Group 1: Company Overview - Atour is a leading mid-to-high-end hotel chain in China, with a market capitalization of $5.2 billion and a stock price of $37.77[1] - The company operates a light-asset model focusing on management franchises and scenario-based retail monetization[1] - As of Q3 2025, Atour's hotel network expanded from 570 in 2020 to 1,948, with 24 self-operated hotels[2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached RMB 2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%, with a net profit of RMB 690 million, up 29%[8] - The hotel business segment generated RMB 1.7 billion, accounting for 65% of total revenue, while retail business revenue grew 76% to RMB 850 million[8] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash of RMB 5.67 billion, representing 64% of total assets[8] Group 3: Revenue Structure and Growth Drivers - Franchise income and supply chain revenue contribute 52% and 48% to total revenue, respectively[1] - The retail business, centered around the "Atour Planet" brand, saw revenue soar from RMB 300 million in 2021 to RMB 2.5 billion in 2025[7] - Direct booking rates are high at 62.4%, supported by a loyalty program with 108 million members and a 59% repurchase rate[2] Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - Atour's strategic partnership with Ctrip, holding a 13.5% stake, allows it to achieve a low commission rate of 2% while generating 26% of its revenue[2] - The company has diversified its product matrix, reducing reliance on its core pillow product from 90% to 60%[19] - Atour plans to increase dividends and share buybacks, with a payout ratio of 62% and a dividend yield of 2%[19]

Group 1: Company Overview - Atour is a leading mid-to-high-end hotel chain in China, with a market capitalization of $5.2 billion and a stock price of $37.77[1] - The company operates a light-asset model focusing on management franchises and scenario-based retail monetization[1] - As of Q3 2025, Atour's hotel network expanded from 570 in 2020 to 1,948, with 24 self-operated hotels[2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached RMB 2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%, with a net profit of RMB 690 million, up 29%[8] - The hotel business generated RMB 1.7 billion, accounting for 65% of total revenue, while retail business revenue grew 76% year-on-year to RMB 850 million[8] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash of RMB 5.67 billion, representing 64% of total assets[8] Group 3: Revenue Structure and Growth Drivers - Franchise income and supply chain revenue contribute 52% and 48% to total revenue, respectively[1] - The retail segment's revenue surged from RMB 300 million in 2021 to RMB 2.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025, increasing its share from 14% to 36%[7] - The average revenue per available room (RevPAR) has recovered to RMB 371, driven by improved occupancy rates and reduced daily room rate declines[8] Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - Atour's loyalty program, "A-Card," has approximately 108 million members with a repurchase rate of 59%[2] - The company leverages strategic synergies with major shareholder Trip.com, achieving a low commission rate of 2% while generating 26% of its revenue[2] - Atour plans to increase dividends and share buybacks, with a payout ratio of 62% and a dividend yield of 2%[19]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with some players struggling while others thrive through innovation in operations and business models, emphasizing efficiency and cash flow health over mere expansion [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The economic hotel segment is shrinking, with brands like Pudding Hotel and Wan Feng exiting the market, while leading players like Huazhu and Atour are leveraging "stay + retail" and AI technology to enhance their operations [1][3]. - The focus has shifted from opening new locations to improving operational efficiency and innovating business models, as the era of aggressive expansion is over [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - The hotel industry is capital-intensive, with long payback periods, particularly for mid-range hotels, which now have a return cycle extending to 5-6 years, compounded by tightening financing conditions [3][4]. - Many innovative ideas are hindered by a lack of funding, as hotels face significant financial pressure [3][4]. Group 3: Digital Hotel Solutions - A new digital hotel solution has emerged, aiming to tokenize future revenue rights of hotels into digital equity, allowing public investors to purchase these rights [4][6]. - For example, a hotel with 300 rooms can issue 20,000 digital rights at 2,000 yuan each, generating 40 million yuan in cash without incurring debt, effectively "securitizing" future room revenues [6][7]. Group 4: Benefits of Digital Solutions - This approach provides quick capital for hotels, allowing them to bypass traditional financing routes and directly attract market investment [7][9]. - Tokenizing assets enhances liquidity, enabling holders to transfer rights in a compliant secondary market, thus unlocking the value of previously illiquid assets [7][9]. - The model fosters a win-win ecosystem where equity holders are also long-term customers, enhancing customer loyalty and trust through transparent digital technology [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - With the influx of funds from digital equity sales, hotels can further develop their "stay + retail" offerings, creating more sophisticated environments and products [9][10]. - The integration of AI with clear user profiles and blockchain data can lead to more precise service delivery and automated management of rights [9][10]. - The hotel industry is likely to evolve into a multifaceted value platform that combines investment, consumption, and brand experience, moving beyond traditional accommodation services [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the consumer discretionary sector, highlighting structural investment opportunities [5][10]. Core Insights - The report indicates that in December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 4.5 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points, primarily due to high base effects from durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new round of trade-in policies for 2026, which focus on core home appliance categories and expand into new categories like smart glasses and products for the elderly, supporting demand in these segments [7]. - The report suggests that consumer sentiment remains strong, particularly in sectors like emotional consumption, technology consumption, and undervalued high-dividend stocks, recommending a focus on domestic brands and global brand expansion [10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In December, retail sales of food and beverages grew by 2.2% and 0.7% respectively, with urban and rural retail sales increasing by 0.7% and 1.7% year-on-year [8]. - Online retail sales of physical goods in December increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a total annual growth of 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [8]. Consumer Categories - The report notes a structural differentiation in consumer categories, with home appliances, building materials, and furniture experiencing declines of 18.7%, 11.8%, and 2.2% respectively due to high base effects and trade-in policy impacts [9]. - Conversely, communication equipment saw a significant increase of 20.9% year-on-year, while emotional and self-care products like sports and entertainment goods and cosmetics grew by 9.0% and 8.8% respectively [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes: 1. Rise of domestic brands and global brand expansion, recommending companies like Pop Mart, Shangmei, and Anta Sports [10]. 2. Technology consumption empowered by AI, recommending companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [10]. 3. Emotional consumption, recommending companies like Gu Ming and Yum China [10]. 4. Undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders, recommending companies like Li Ning and Shenzhou International [10]. Company-Specific Insights - For Smoore International (6969 HK), the report forecasts a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for Q1-3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 27.00 HKD [48]. - For Juzhibio (2367 HK), the report highlights the approval of a new collagen product, projecting significant sales potential and maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of 85.00 HKD [49]. - For Pop Mart (9992 HK), the report notes a revenue increase of 245-250% in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets, maintaining a "Buy" rating with an updated target price of 410 HKD [51].

Core Insights - The hotel industry is facing a significant downturn, with many brands struggling to maintain profitability and market presence as evidenced by the forced delisting of Buding Hotels and the sudden closure of Marriott's Hangzhou hotel [1][2] - Economic hotel room availability is declining, with only 54% of the market share remaining by the end of 2024, and major players like Jinjiang, Shoulv, and Huazhu are shifting focus from expansion to renovation of existing properties [1][3] - The competitive landscape is evolving from a focus on scale to one emphasizing quality and innovation, with a notable shift towards the "stay + retail" model as a new revenue stream [5][6] Industry Trends - The global hotel industry is experiencing high saturation, with new brand survival rates below 35%, leading to significant closures among older, less profitable properties [3] - Major hotel groups are reporting mixed financial results, with Huazhu leading in occupancy rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR), while Jinjiang shows revenue decline despite profit growth [4] - The shift towards a "quality era" in the hotel industry is marked by a focus on operational efficiency, cost control, and innovative business models rather than mere expansion [4][10] Innovations and Strategies - The integration of AI technology is transforming hotel operations, with predictions that 75% of hotels will automate processes by 2025, although the domestic market still lags in implementation [8][9] - The "stay + retail" model is gaining traction, with hotels like Atour and Hanting introducing retail options that enhance guest experiences and increase non-room revenue [5][6] - Future success in the hotel industry will depend on the ability to offer tailored products and services that meet the diverse needs of different customer segments, alongside maintaining quality control in a franchise-heavy environment [10]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Atour Group and Starbucks China aims to enhance user experience by integrating their services into a seamless travel journey, focusing on comfort and convenience [1][2][3] Group 1: Partnership Overview - Atour and Starbucks launched a joint membership program that connects their services, allowing users to enjoy benefits across both brands [3][6] - The program includes features such as double star accumulation for Atour members and exclusive benefits for high-tier Starbucks members, enhancing user engagement [3][6] Group 2: User Experience Enhancement - The partnership addresses the needs of frequent travelers by providing a consistent experience from departure to arrival, ensuring that users can maintain their daily routines even in unfamiliar cities [5][7] - The collaboration shifts the focus from isolated promotions to a holistic experience, positioning both brands as companions in the user's lifestyle [5][7] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The trend of cross-scenario fluidity among urban consumers necessitates a shift in membership programs from simple discounts to seamless experiences that fit into users' real-life paths [6][7] - Younger consumers are increasingly prioritizing convenience and smoothness in their experiences over mere cost savings, indicating a need for brands to adapt their offerings [6][7] Group 4: Atour's Strategic Vision - Atour aims to redefine the hotel experience as a lifestyle brand, focusing on the concept of "body and mind settling" to enhance the overall quality of life for users [8][12] - The company has set ambitious goals, such as achieving "2000 good stores" in three years, indicating a commitment to expanding its brand presence and enhancing user experience [8][12] Group 5: Future Directions - Atour plans to extend its focus on lifestyle experience upgrades, ensuring that the concept of settling extends beyond travel to everyday life [12] - The collaboration with Starbucks is part of a broader strategy to create a comprehensive lifestyle network that integrates various aspects of urban living [9][11]