Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank predicts a significant decline in bank reserves below $3 trillion in September due to the reconstruction of the U.S. Treasury account, quarterly tax payments, and bond settlements, but the risk of severe "funding squeeze" remains low due to market resilience and the Federal Reserve's backup tools [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Leading to Liquidity Drain - The report identifies three main drivers contributing to the sharp decline in reserves in September, particularly around mid-month [4]. - The U.S. Treasury plans to restore its cash balance at the Federal Reserve (TGA) to a target level of $850 billion, which will inherently withdraw liquidity from the banking system [5]. - The quarterly tax payment deadline on September 15 is expected to result in approximately $100 billion or more flowing into the TGA, with an additional $30 billion on the 16th [6]. - On September 15, there will also be about $80 billion in net coupon settlements, with over $100 billion in settlements by the end of the month [7]. - The combined impact of tax and bond settlements on September 15 could withdraw nearly $200 billion in reserves from the banking system, leading to total reserves dropping below $3 trillion in mid-September and further declining to below $2.9 trillion by the end of the month [8]. Group 2: Market Resilience - Despite the looming liquidity shock, Barclays believes the market is prepared to handle the situation [10]. - The market has demonstrated its absorption capacity, having "calmly" digested up to $350 billion in net short-term Treasury issuance in August, with only a slight increase in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) [10]. - The pace of Treasury issuance is expected to provide a buffer in the second half of September, with a net short-term Treasury issuance of approximately $30 billion, and the net issuance turning negative due to the maturity of cash management bills (CMBs) [10]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Backup Tools - The report emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is crucial for mitigating tail risks in the market [12]. - The SRF allows eligible counterparties to borrow cash from the Federal Reserve at a fixed rate, providing a reliable liquidity ceiling for the market [12]. - The Federal Reserve has been enhancing the effectiveness of the SRF, including adding morning operation windows before the end of the quarter to lower usage barriers [12]. - Additionally, the report mentions that the Federal Reserve may introduce term repo operations to provide longer-term liquidity support in response to fluctuations in the Treasury account [12]. Group 4: Market Pricing and Vigilance - The report analyzes whether the risks have been priced into the market, noting that reserves as a percentage of total bank assets will drop below 12% but remain slightly above the "adequate level sweet spot" of 11% [13]. - The September interest rate futures market indicates that SOFR is expected to be about 4 basis points higher than the federal funds rate, which Barclays considers a "fair" pricing reflecting a certain "insurance premium" for the mid-month reserve decline and quarter-end volatility [13]. - Overall, the report conveys a clear message that while September's liquidity tightening will be severe and rapid, the risk of a systemic funding squeeze is low due to existing market resilience and strong Federal Reserve support [13].

Core Insights - Barclays Bank reported a total market value of $252 billion for its Q2 2025 holdings, down from $353 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a decrease of approximately 34.33% [1][2] - The bank added 255 new stocks, increased holdings in 2,747 stocks, reduced holdings in 1,176 stocks, and completely sold out of 1,047 stocks during the quarter [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 37.06% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The largest holding is NVIDIA (NVDA), with approximately 100.84 million shares valued at about $15.93 billion, representing 6.32% of the portfolio, an increase of 14.2% in shares held [3][4] - Microsoft (MSFT) is the second largest holding, with around 26.97 million shares valued at approximately $13.41 billion, accounting for 5.33% of the portfolio, a decrease of 2.31% in shares held [3][4] - Apple (AAPL) ranks third, holding about 45.53 million shares valued at approximately $9.34 billion, which is 3.71% of the portfolio, with an increase of 1.91% in shares held [3][4] - Amazon (AMZN) is fourth, with approximately 36.38 million shares valued at about $7.98 billion, making up 3.17% of the portfolio, a decrease of 9.67% in shares held [3][4] - Tesla (TSLA) is fifth, holding about 20.51 million shares valued at approximately $6.51 billion, representing 2.59% of the portfolio, with an increase of 10.63% in shares held [3][4] Trading Activity - The top five purchases by percentage change in the portfolio were NVIDIA, Microsoft, Broadcom (AVGO), Tesla, and Meta [5] - The top five sales included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, Invesco QQQ Trust put options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF call options, Russell 2000 ETF put options, and Invesco QQQ Trust call options [6]

Group 1 - Kimberly-Clark Corporation will have key executives, including Chairman and CEO Mike Hsu, President and COO Russ Torres, and CFO Nelson Urdaneta, speaking at the Barclays 18th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference on September 3, 2025 [1] - The conference will be broadcasted through the Investors section of Kimberly-Clark's website [1] Group 2 - Kimberly-Clark operates in over 175 countries and territories, with a portfolio of trusted brands such as Huggies, Kleenex, and Scott [2] - The company holds No. 1 or No. 2 market share positions in approximately 70 countries [2] - Kimberly-Clark is committed to sustainable practices aimed at supporting a healthy planet and building strong communities [2]

格隆汇8月13日｜巴克莱银行公共政策高级研究分析师迈克尔·麦克莱恩指出，特朗普提名接替库格勒的 斯蒂芬·米兰可能成为下一任美联储主席的黑马人选。如果得到参议院的批准，米兰可能会在任期届满 后无限期留任。特朗普本可以让库格勒的席位空缺，但他却选择迅速提名米兰，这显然在为其铺路。米 兰深得特朗普信任，始终坚定支持总统及其政策。此外，包括格林斯潘、伯南克和耶伦在内的多位前美 联储主席，都曾担任过白宫经济顾问委员会主席。而且与其他候选人相比，米兰将拥有货币政策发言权 和FOMC投票权这些优势。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. will participate in the 2025 Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference on September 2, 2025, where executives will discuss financial metrics, operating performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook [1] Company Overview - Constellation Brands is a leading international producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits, with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy [3] - The company's mission focuses on building beloved brands and enhancing human connections, which drives its growth as one of the fastest-growing large consumer packaged goods companies in the U.S. [3] Product Portfolio - The company offers a diverse range of products, including high-end imported beers like Corona Extra and Modelo Especial, a variety of wines such as The Prisoner Wine Company and Robert Mondavi Winery, and craft spirits like Casa Noble Tequila and High West Whiskey [4] Sustainability and ESG Strategy - Constellation Brands emphasizes sustainable and responsible operations, integrating its Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) strategy into its business practices [5] - The company aims to be a good steward of the environment, invest in communities, and promote responsible beverage alcohol consumption, aligning these goals with its long-term business strategy [5]

Barclays says a win by Hungary’s opposition next year could lift the forint 5.5% by unlocking frozen EU funds https://t.co/hJfE7l3EDU ...

An ex-Barclays investment banker sued the bank for unfair dismissal alleging that an offhand comment taken out of context cost him his job https://t.co/7RlbQLO5HM ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays PLC has experienced a significant rise in its stock price over the past year, with an 80% rally, indicating strong market performance, yet there is an expectation that the growth momentum is not yet exhausted [1]. Company Analysis - The analysis emphasizes a disciplined approach to evaluating companies, focusing on numerical data and underlying business performance rather than market narratives [1]. - The analyst possesses over 15 years of market experience and a degree in economics, which supports a thorough understanding of financial metrics and market dynamics [1]. Market Sentiment - Despite the substantial increase in stock price, the market appears to be taking a cautious approach, suggesting potential for further growth opportunities [1].

Group 1 - The investment thesis for Barclays (NYSE: BCS) focuses on its transition towards a more profitable and shareholder-return oriented institution [1] - The potential for stock price appreciation is contingent upon the successful execution of its multi-year strategic plan [1]

Core Insights - The Zacks Premium service provides tools for investors to enhance their stock market engagement and confidence [1][2] Group 1: Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores rate stocks based on value, growth, and momentum, serving as complementary indicators to the Zacks Rank [3] - Each stock receives an alphabetic rating from A to F, with A indicating the highest potential for outperformance [4] - The Style Scores are categorized into four types: Value Score, Growth Score, Momentum Score, and VGM Score [4][5][6][7] Group 2: Value Score - The Value Style Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using ratios like P/E, PEG, and Price/Sales [4] Group 3: Growth Score - The Growth Style Score evaluates stocks based on projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow to identify sustainable growth opportunities [5] Group 4: Momentum Score - The Momentum Style Score assesses price trends and earnings outlook changes to identify favorable investment timing [6] Group 5: VGM Score - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores to highlight stocks with attractive value, strong growth forecasts, and promising momentum [7] Group 6: Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to simplify portfolio building [8] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically produced an average annual return of +23.75% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [9] Group 7: Stock Recommendation - Barclays PLC (BCS) is highlighted as a stock to watch, currently rated 3 (Hold) with a VGM Score of B and a Value Style Score of A [12] - Barclays has total assets of £1,598.7 billion ($2,192.3 billion) as of June 30, 2025, and an upward revision in earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 [12][13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barclays is $2.23 per share, with an average earnings surprise of +36.5% [13]