Investment Strategy - The individual investor employs a diversified investment approach, incorporating fundamental investing (e.g., bottoms-up analysis), technical investing (e.g., historical chart analysis), and momentum investing (e.g., share price reaction post-earnings) to refine their investment process [1] - The investor uses Seeking Alpha as a platform to track the performance of their investment ideas and connect with like-minded investors who share similar investment interests [1] Kanzhun Ltd (BZ) Analysis - The investor previously issued a buy rating for Kanzhun Ltd (NASDAQ: BZ) in September, citing strong fundamentals despite a drop in share price [3] - The investor reiterates the buy rating for BZ, maintaining confidence in the company's fundamentals [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ) [1] Core Views - BOSS Zhipin's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 19% YoY to RMB 1.912 billion and adjusted net profit of RMB 739 million, up 4% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between RMB 1.795-1.810 billion, representing a YoY increase of 13.6%-14.6% [2] - BOSS Zhipin repurchased USD 220 million worth of shares in 2024 [2] User Metrics and Market Trends - Q3 2024 MAU reached 58 million, up 30% YoY and 6% QoQ, hitting a record high [2] - Paid enterprise customers totaled 6 million in the 12 months ending September 30, 2024, up 22% YoY and 2% QoQ [2] - The ratio of job seekers to enterprise users improved QoQ, potentially shortening recruitment cycles and temporarily slowing enterprise customer payment growth [2] Blue-Collar Business Performance - Blue-collar recruitment revenue exceeded 38% of total revenue in Q3 2024, with manufacturing revenue up 45% YoY [3] - The "Hailuo Preferred" project saw a 45% QoQ increase in attracted enterprises and a 40% QoQ rise in contract value [3] - Large enterprise revenue grew over 30% YoY, with ARPU up 5% YoY and flat QoQ [3] Financial Performance and Projections - Q3 2024 adjusted operating profit was RMB 605 million, representing 31.7% of revenue [3] - Adjusted net profit margin was 38.7%, down 5.8% YoY due to higher tax rates [3] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are RMB 2.6/3.2/4.1 billion, with corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 18/15/11x [4] Financial Ratios and Valuation - 2024-2026 ROE projections are 10.4%/12.8%/15.9% [10] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecasts are 83.3%/84.4%/84.9% [10] - 2024-2026 net profit margin estimates are 20.5%/25.5%/31.3% [10] - The stock closed at USD 14.58 with a market cap of USD 6.373 billion [4] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - 2024-2026 operating cash flow projections are RMB 2.974/4.352/4.548 billion [8] - 2024-2026 net cash increase forecasts are RMB 337 million/1.634 billion/1.711 billion [8] - Total assets are projected to grow from RMB 19.096 billion in 2024E to RMB 24.175 billion in 2026E [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ.O) is "Outperform the Market" [4][15][16] Core Views - The company reported stable growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 1.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, aligning with prior guidance [2][8] - The B-end revenue was 1.89 billion yuan, up 18.7%, while C-end revenue surged by 49% to 22.5 million yuan, indicating strong performance in blue-collar recruitment, particularly in manufacturing and logistics sectors [2][8] - The company anticipates Q4 2024 revenue growth of 13.6%-14.6%, reflecting a moderate economic recovery [3][15] - The management has initiated a share repurchase plan, demonstrating confidence in long-term growth [3][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, adjusted operating profit was 610 million yuan, a 9% increase, while adjusted net profit was 740 million yuan, up 4.1% [2][8] - The adjusted net profit margin decreased to 38.7%, down 6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher tax rate [2][10] - The average monthly active users reached 58 million, a 30% year-on-year increase, with a steady rise in ARPPU to 1,172 yuan, reflecting strong customer retention [2][9] Business Segmentation - The blue-collar recruitment sector outperformed the white-collar sector, with manufacturing revenue growing over 45% year-on-year [2][8] - The number of paid enterprise clients reached 6 million, a 22% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate of paid users has slowed due to a mismatch in job demand and talent supply [2][9] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 7.24 billion, 8.05 billion, and 9.56 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 2.67 billion, 3.52 billion, and 4.31 billion yuan respectively [3][15] - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the blue-collar recruitment market, supported by favorable domestic economic policies [3][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ) with a target price of $19.11 per ADS, based on a 20X PE multiple for 2025 [5] Core Views - BOSS Zhipin's 24Q3 revenue grew 18.98% YoY to RMB 19.12 billion, with recruitment services contributing RMB 18.89 billion (up 18.7% YoY) [2] - The company's adjusted net profit reached RMB 739 million in 24Q3, up 3.5% YoY and 2.8% QoQ [2] - BOSS Zhipin's MAU grew 30% YoY to 58 million in 24Q3, with 40 million new users added in the first nine months [3] - The company's blue-collar recruitment business now accounts for 38% of total revenue, showing significant growth potential [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow 23.3% to RMB 7.34 billion in 2024 and 10.1% to RMB 8.08 billion in 2025 [4] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to reach RMB 2.72 billion in 2024 and RMB 3.10 billion in 2025 [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 22 in 2023 to 15 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics [4] Operational Highlights - Paid enterprise users reached 6 million in the past 12 months, up 22.4% YoY [3] - New job postings increased 18% YoY in 24Q3, driven by efficient business models and market share gains [3] - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with $220 million repurchased this year and an additional $150 million authorized [3] Industry Position - BOSS Zhipin is recognized as a leading online recruitment platform in China, benefiting from strong network effects [3] - The company's focus on blue-collar recruitment is expected to drive further growth and market expansion [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB1.91 billion, up 19% year-on-year [8] - Net income was RMB460 million, with adjusted operating income at RMB610 million, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [8] - Share-based compensation expenses declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, entering a phase of gradual reduction [11] - Net cash provided by operating activities was RMB812 million, relatively stable compared to the same period last year [34] - Cash and cash equivalents, short-term time deposits, and short-term investments totaled RMB14.6 billion as of September 30, 2024 [35] Business Line Performance - Average monthly active users on the BOSS Zhipin app reached 58 million, a 30% year-on-year increase [13] - Newly posted job positions increased by 18% year-on-year, driven by user growth and market share expansion [14] - Paid enterprise customers reached 6 million in the trailing 12 months, up 22% year-on-year [18] - Blue-collar business revenue contribution increased to over 38% of total revenue, with the Hailuo Conch-led project growing by 45% quarter-on-quarter [19] - The platform facilitated an average of nearly 200 million monthly mutual achievements, indicating successful interactions between enterprise users and job seekers [20] Market Performance - The job seeker-to-enterprise user ratio continued its upward trend, shortening recruitment cycles for enterprises [16] - Retention rates for enterprise users remained solid, with the number of paid enterprise customers experiencing decent growth [15][17] - Blue-collar sectors, particularly manufacturing, logistics, and automobile industries, showed strong performance, with manufacturing revenue growing over 45% year-on-year [52][53] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company remains focused on user growth, paying ratio stability, and ARPU improvement as key revenue drivers [43][44][46] - Investments in technology and operational efficiency continue, with a focus on sustainable cost control and strong operating leverage [27][30] - The company repurchased $130 million worth of shares, bringing the total repurchase for the year to $220 million, demonstrating confidence in long-term growth [22][36] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the recruitment market remains challenging but highlighted positive results from focusing on key growth drivers [12] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between RMB1.795 billion and RMB1.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 14.6% [36] - For 2025, the company anticipates maintaining a 15% user growth rate and improving profitability through operating leverage and cost control [43][69][70] Other Important Information - The company allocated additional resources to brand promotion during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and Euro Cup 2024, leading to increased marketing expenses [9] - R&D expenses increased by 12% year-on-year to RMB464 million, with adjusted R&D expenses up 18% year-on-year [31] - G&A expenses rose by 31% year-on-year due to higher employee-related expenses and one-off expenditures [32] Q&A Session Summary Question 1: Impact of Government Policies and Revenue Growth in 2025 - The company observed improvements in newly added enterprise users since October, indicating positive effects from government policies [40] - Key revenue drivers for 2025 include user growth, paying ratio stability, and ARPU improvement, with blue-collar business contributing significantly [43][44][46][47] Question 2: Blue-Collar vs. White-Collar Performance and User Growth Potential - Blue-collar revenue growth outpaced white-collar, with manufacturing, logistics, and automobile industries performing well [51][52] - The company estimates China's marketable employees at over 400 million, indicating significant growth potential for both individual and enterprise users [56][57] Question 3: Blue-Collar Recruitment Strategy and Profitability Outlook - The company's blue-collar strategy focuses on creating a balanced ecosystem for factories, intermediaries, workers, and platforms [63][64] - Profitability in 2025 is expected to improve through gross margin stability, sales efficiency, and disciplined spending on new business initiatives [70] Question 4: Overseas Business and AI Applications - Overseas business investments will remain limited in 2025, with a focus on small-scale experiments [74][75] - AI applications are being used to enhance user safety and operational efficiency, with no immediate plans for large-scale AI hardware investments [76][79][80]

Company Performance - Kanzhun Limited reported quarterly earnings of $0.23 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.22 per share, and showing an increase from $0.22 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 4.55% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $272.4 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.31%, and up from $220.21 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Kanzhun has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.21 on revenues of $248.51 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.81 on revenues of $1.01 billion [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Kanzhun is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [7] - The sustainability of the stock's price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call [3] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, to which Kanzhun belongs, is currently ranked in the top 14% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook [9] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [6]

Customer Growth - Total paid enterprise customers increased by 22.4% to 6.0 million for the twelve months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 4.9 million for the same period in 2023[4] - Average monthly active users (MAU) grew by 30.0% to 58.0 million in Q3 2024, up from 44.6 million in Q3 2023[4] Financial Performance - Revenues for Q3 2024 were RMB1,911.6 million (US$272.4 million), representing a 19.0% increase from RMB1,606.6 million in Q3 2023[5] - Net income for Q3 2024 was RMB463.8 million (US$66.1 million), an increase of 8.9% from RMB425.7 million in Q3 2023[6] - Adjusted income from operations for Q3 2024 was RMB605.3 million (US$86.2 million), reflecting a 10.2% increase from RMB549.4 million in Q3 2023[15] - Revenues from online recruitment services to enterprise customers were RMB1,889.1 million (US$269.2 million) in Q3 2024, up 18.7% from RMB1,591.5 million in Q3 2023[9] - Total revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 1,911,575, representing a 19% increase from RMB 1,606,636 in the same period of 2023[34] - Online recruitment services to enterprise customers generated RMB 1,889,102 in revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, up from RMB 1,591,500, reflecting a growth of 19%[34] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 1,122,801, compared to RMB 767,977 for the same period in 2023, marking a 46% increase[34] Cash Flow and Assets - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of RMB 812,290 for the three months ended September 30, 2024[40] - The balance of cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2024, was RMB14,599.5 million (US$2,080.4 million)[20] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were RMB 2,816,158, an increase from RMB 2,444,620 at the beginning of the period[40] - Total current assets decreased to RMB 13,373,037 as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 15,147,115 as of December 31, 2023[38] Expenses and Liabilities - Research and development expenses increased by 12.0% to RMB464.2 million (US$66.1 million) in Q3 2024, driven by higher technology investments[14] - Research and development expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 464,151, up from RMB 414,429 in the same period of 2023, indicating a 12% increase[34] - The company’s total liabilities as of September 30, 2024, were RMB 4,510,855, compared to RMB 4,179,665 as of December 31, 2023[38] Shareholder Information - A new share repurchase program was authorized in August 2024, allowing the company to repurchase up to US$150 million of its shares[21] - Basic net income per ordinary share attributable to ordinary shareholders for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 1.28, compared to RMB 0.88 for the same period in 2023, reflecting a 45% increase[34] - The weighted average number of ordinary shares used in computing net income per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was 1,135,056[34] Future Outlook - The company expects total revenues for Q4 2024 to be between RMB1.795 billion and RMB1.81 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 14.6%[22] - The company anticipates continued growth in user data and market expansion strategies in the upcoming quarters[42] - New product and technology developments are expected to contribute positively to future revenue streams and market positioning[42]

Core Viewpoint - KANZHUN LIMITED, a leading online recruitment platform in China, reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, demonstrating resilience in a challenging recruitment market with significant growth in user base and revenues [1][4]. Financial Performance - Total paid enterprise customers increased by 22.4% to 6.0 million from 4.9 million year-on-year [3]. - Average monthly active users (MAU) rose by 30.0% to 58.0 million compared to 44.6 million in the same quarter of 2023 [3]. - Revenues for Q3 2024 were RMB1,911.6 million (US$272.4 million), up 19.0% from RMB1,606.6 million in Q3 2023 [3][5]. - Income from operations increased by 26.5% to RMB330.2 million (US$47.1 million) from RMB261.0 million year-on-year [3][10]. - Net income for Q3 2024 was RMB463.8 million (US$66.1 million), an increase of 8.9% from RMB425.7 million in Q3 2023 [3][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from online recruitment services to enterprise customers were RMB1,889.1 million (US$269.2 million), an increase of 18.7% from RMB1,591.5 million in Q3 2023, driven by growth in paid enterprise users [6]. - Revenues from other services, mainly paid value-added services for job seekers, rose by 49.0% to RMB22.5 million (US$3.2 million) [6]. Operating Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs and expenses were RMB1,586.9 million (US$226.1 million), up 16.8% from RMB1,358.7 million in Q3 2023 [7]. - Cost of revenues increased by 17.4% to RMB314.0 million (US$44.7 million) due to higher server, bandwidth, and employee-related costs [9]. - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 14.2% to RMB522.3 million (US$74.4 million), attributed to increased advertising during major events [9]. Shareholder Returns and Outlook - The company has initiated a new share repurchase program, authorizing up to US$150 million for a 12-month period, in addition to a previous program of US$200 million [16]. - For Q4 2024, the company expects total revenues to be between RMB1.795 billion and RMB1.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 14.6% [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue of 1.919 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19% [1] - Cash collections are projected to be 1.806 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP operating net profit is anticipated to reach 608 million yuan, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [1] - The company is facing weak B-end recruitment demand due to macroeconomic factors, impacting overall revenue growth [2] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a competitive advantage and is expected to achieve its annual profit targets through effective cost control [2] - The long-term development outlook remains positive, supported by share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.952 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.101 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 23%, 13%, and 22% respectively [1][8] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from 2.156 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.141 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 32%, 42%, and 52% [1][8] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 4.79 yuan in 2024 to 9.20 yuan in 2026 [1][8] - The company’s Non-GAAP PE ratios are projected to be 21.06, 17.15, and 14.15 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][8]

证券研究报告 | 2024年12月02日 BOSS 直聘（BZ.O）-2024Q3 业绩前瞻 优于大市 企业招聘意愿仍待回暖，精细化运营保障利润端 宏观环境温和复苏，2024Q3 企业付款以及招聘意愿仍处低位。考虑到国内经 济偏温和复苏的现状，我们分析预计 2024Q3 公司现金收款同增约 10%，略低 于我们此前预期（2024Q3 现金收款同增 17.8%），同比增速环比 2024Q1/Q2 （24%/21%）也有所下行；目前企业招聘意愿仍处低位，我们预计 2024Q3 收 入同增约 14%，也略低于我们此前预期（2024Q3 收入同增+19.2%）。分行业 来看，2024 三季度，进出口相关行业、制造业和运输业相对表现较好，而与 零售相关的服务业、餐饮业表现承压明显。 成本精细化管控，盈利能力有望保持稳定。当前经营的核心矛盾在于企业招 聘意愿恢复相对缓慢，而非 C 端用户增长不足，故在市场营销获客方面，我 们分析公司在投放上会更为审慎，且更具针对性和目的性。此外，2024 年公 司在奥运会期间进行了一次性品牌投入，2025 年事件营销投入的减少也将进 一步显现公司的经营杠杆。此外，公司预计公司研发投入也有 ...