Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026-03-05 CBAM Increases Export Costs for the Steel and Aluminum Industries 欧盟碳排放关税开征，钢铁铝业出口成本陡增 | 何颢昀 | He Haoyun | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03100810 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0021074 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 张默涵 | Zhang Mohan | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03097187 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0020317 | | 桂晨曦 | Gui Chenxi | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F3023159 | 投资咨询号 ...

CBAM 深度解析：高排放行业的加速转型契机 ESG 分析师：马宗明 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 CGS-NDI 专题报告 CBAM 深度解析：高排放行业的加速转型契机 2026 年 3 月 4 日 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 CBAM 落地生效。历经两年多的过渡期，2026 年 1 月 1 日，欧盟碳边境调 节机制（CBAM）正式生效。CBAM 首先覆盖六大温室气体高排放行业，分别 是钢铁、铝、水泥、化肥、电力、氢。其中，钢铁、铝、氢、电力行业仅需申 报生产过程中的直接温室气体排放；水泥和化肥行业则需申报隐含温室气体排 放。进入正式实施阶段后，进口商需在次年清缴上一年度的进口碳排放，这意 味着首批 CBAM 证书清缴的时间为 2027 年。此外，欧盟或于 2028 年将 CBAM 覆盖行业扩围至钢铝密集型下游（如机械、汽车 ...

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBert Frost - SVP of Sales and Market DevelopmentChris Bohn - President and CEOMartin Jarosick - Vice President of Investor RelationsRich Hoker - VP of Interim CFO and Chief Accounting OfficerConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - Equity Research AnalystBen Theurer - Equity Research AnalystChristopher Parkinson - Equity Research AnalystDavid Simmons - Equity Research AnalystEdlain Rodriguez - Equity Research An ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for Shanghai to enhance its international trade capabilities and strengthen global supply chain management in response to complex external economic conditions, including geopolitical conflicts and policy changes [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Development Strategies - Shanghai aims to upgrade its international trade center by enhancing its trade hub functions, accelerating trade innovation, and optimizing goods trade while expanding intermediate goods, service trade, digital trade, offshore trade, and green trade [2]. - The city plans to promote high-quality development of new trade formats and diversify its trade markets to strengthen global supply chain management [2]. Group 2: Recommendations for Supply Chain Management - Suggestions include improving cross-departmental supply chain collaboration mechanisms, simplifying key processes like cross-border logistics and international settlement, and creating a new global trade model that integrates global order-taking, overseas processing, and settlement in Shanghai [3]. - There is a call for supporting enterprises in enhancing their global supply chain management capabilities and integrating resources effectively, as well as improving the understanding and application of international trade terms [3]. Group 3: Automotive Industry Insights - Shanghai's automotive industry is projected to achieve an industrial output value of 742.1 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, accounting for 19% of the city's total industrial output [4]. - Recommendations for the automotive sector include creating a collaborative ecosystem for overseas expansion, optimizing foreign exchange settlement processes, and establishing a regulatory framework to combat price competition abroad [5]. Group 4: Addressing Carbon Border Tax - The European Union is expanding its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to include downstream products, prompting calls for Shanghai to develop a public service toolbox to help local industries comply with these regulations [7]. - Recommendations include establishing a standardized carbon data management system and enhancing training and compliance support for enterprises to adapt to evolving EU regulations [8].

Core Viewpoint - India and the European Union (EU) are negotiating a landmark free trade agreement that could be finalized as early as January 27, marking a significant development in trade relations after 18 years of discussions [1][2]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement is expected to create a market for 2 billion people and is projected to increase bilateral trade between India and the EU to approximately $136 billion in the fiscal year 2024-2025, with India exporting around $76 billion and importing about $60 billion [2][11]. - If signed, this will be India's largest and most comprehensive free trade agreement, allowing access to the EU's 27 member states under a single framework [2][11]. - Predictions indicate that by the fiscal year 2031, the agreement could increase India's trade surplus with the EU by over $50 billion, with the EU's share of India's total exports potentially rising from 17.3% in 2025 to 22%-23% [2][11]. Tariff Changes - Currently, the EU imposes an average tariff of about 3.8% on Indian goods, with labor-intensive sectors like textiles facing tariffs around 10% [3][12]. - The agreement aims to restore market access and reduce tariffs on key export products such as clothing, pharmaceuticals, steel, and machinery, helping Indian businesses cope with increased U.S. tariffs [3][12]. Sector-Specific Impacts - India is likely to protect politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy from the agreement, while tariffs on automobiles, wine, and spirits may be reduced gradually [4][13]. - The EU's average tariff on Indian exports is approximately 9.3%, with particularly high tariffs on automobiles and chemicals [15]. Automotive Industry Focus - India plans to reduce tariffs on EU-imported cars from 110% to 40%, a significant move to open its automotive market [16]. - The reduction will be phased, with tariffs on vehicles priced over €15,000 being lowered immediately, and further reductions expected over time [16][17]. - Currently, European car manufacturers hold less than 4% of the Indian market, dominated by local brands [16]. Challenges and Disputes - Key issues remain, including the EU's focus on intellectual property protection and India's concerns over the EU's new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which could impose additional costs on Indian exports [5][14]. - The CBAM is viewed as a potential new border tax on Indian exports, particularly affecting small and medium enterprises due to compliance costs [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will officially start charging fees on January 1, 2026, targeting high-carbon industries like steel, which is significantly impacted due to its large trade volume and high carbon emissions [1][2]. Group 1: CBAM Implementation and Challenges - The steel industry accounts for 7%-9% of global carbon emissions, with China’s steel sector being the second-largest emitter, contributing about 15% of the country's total emissions [1]. - The complexity of CBAM goes beyond simple tariffs; it aims to extend EU internal carbon costs to imported products to prevent "carbon leakage" [2][3]. - The default carbon emission intensity values set by the EU for steel products may pose significant challenges for Chinese exporters, as they could be forced to use higher default values if they cannot provide recognized carbon verification data [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Viability and Technological Pathways - The transition to greener steel production in China faces economic feasibility challenges, with various technological pathways identified, including increasing the proportion of electric arc furnaces and exploring hydrogen metallurgy [6][7]. - The cost of implementing these technologies is high, with specific projects like hydrogen carbon cycle blast furnace modifications estimated to increase production costs significantly [7]. - The availability of resources such as scrap steel and low-cost green hydrogen is critical for the successful transition to green steel, but current supply chains and costs present significant barriers [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The legal obligation to pay CBAM costs falls on EU importers, but the market dynamics will likely shift costs back to Chinese exporters, influencing procurement decisions based on carbon intensity [5]. - Large state-owned enterprises like Baowu and Ansteel are taking the lead in green transformation, while many private firms struggle with survival and lack the resources for significant technological upgrades [8]. - The industry is witnessing a bifurcation, with larger firms investing in green technologies while smaller firms face more severe challenges, potentially reshaping the market landscape [8].

Group 1 - The European fertilizer market is in turmoil due to the uncertainty surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), leading to a near-total halt in fertilizer trade within the EU [1] - Since the beginning of the year, there have been no transactions for key fertilizer products like urea in the EU, with significant pricing disagreements between farmers and suppliers [1] - The EU Commission has proposed a new "emergency brake" clause under Article 27a of the CBAM, which could allow for the exclusion of certain goods from CBAM controls in cases of "serious and sudden special circumstances" [1] Group 2 - The potential for retroactive adjustments to the CBAM adds devastating uncertainty to the already sensitive fertilizer market, with the mechanism becoming a core consideration in trade negotiations [2] - The CEO of CBAMBOO highlighted that the EU's actions have destroyed any expectations of policy stability for fertilizer companies, emphasizing the need for clear policy in a functioning market [2] - Fertilizers are significantly more impacted by the CBAM than industrial products like steel, with a default carbon cost addition of 1% for fertilizers compared to 10%-30% for other sectors, reflecting the industry's sensitivity [2] Group 3 - Companies like Delso and Yara International are struggling with how to pass on the additional costs from the CBAM to downstream farmers, amidst conflicting signals from the EU Commission [3] - The European Fertilizer Industry Association has strongly opposed any measures that would further weaken the already pressured competitiveness of the industry, deeming the recent actions of the EU Commission unacceptable [3] - Concerns have been raised that the CBAM could mirror the pitfalls of U.S. tariff policies, ultimately leading to consumers bearing the additional costs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1 will significantly impact China's high-carbon industries, particularly steel and aluminum exports to the EU, which account for approximately 3.5% of China's total exports to the EU [2][3]. Group 1: Short-term Impact - The initial pressure from CBAM is manageable, with a starting carbon cost of only 2.5%, allowing Chinese companies to maintain competitive pricing in the short term [4]. - The default emission values set by the EU for Chinese products are generally higher than the global average, creating an unfair barrier for Chinese exporters [4]. - The steel industry, in particular, may face increased export tariffs and competitive pressure, especially for companies that do not conduct their own carbon assessments [3][4]. Group 2: Compliance and Adaptation - Chinese exporters need to shift from relying on default values for carbon reporting to establishing their own carbon monitoring and reporting systems [5][6]. - Over 90% of Chinese companies used global average default values during the trial phase, which will lead to increased carbon costs once country-specific values are published [5]. - Companies are encouraged to engage with third-party certification bodies to enhance the credibility of their carbon data and compliance [6]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The transition to low-carbon operations should be a key focus for companies aiming to expand in international markets, with an emphasis on developing green products and processes [8]. - The CBAM will expand to include around 180 downstream products by 2028, necessitating a comprehensive approach to carbon footprint management across the entire supply chain [8]. - Companies should evaluate potential partners based on their carbon data transparency and low-carbon transition plans to ensure compliance and competitiveness in the future [8]. Group 4: External Environment and Policy - The Chinese government advocates for fair trade practices and is prepared to take necessary measures against any unfair trade restrictions imposed by the EU [9]. - There is a call for improvements in the domestic carbon market, including the introduction of auction mechanisms and negotiations with the EU for recognition of China's carbon pricing [9].

Summary of Yara International Capital Markets Day - January 09, 2026 Company Overview - **Company**: Yara International (OTCPK:YARI.Y) - **Event**: 2026 Capital Markets Day - **Date**: January 09, 2026 - **Location**: Oslo, Norway Key Industry Insights - **Industry**: Fertilizer and Crop Nutrition - **Market Dynamics**: The nitrogen market fundamentals were discussed, highlighting the importance of nitrogen in crop production and the challenges faced by farmers in nutrient replacement [4][5][7]. Core Strategic Priorities - **Resilience and Growth**: Yara aims to strengthen resilience and grow sustainable returns through its business model and competitive advantages [3][16]. - **Safety Commitment**: Yara emphasizes a commitment to safety with a long-term ambition of zero accidents, despite a recent increase in accident rates [8][9][10][12]. - **Sustainability Goals**: The company is focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and optimizing nutrient use efficiency to support sustainable food systems [20][21][22]. Financial Performance - **Shareholder Returns**: Yara has distributed $5.5 billion to shareholders since 2020 and aims for significant growth in shareholder returns going forward [16][28]. - **EBITDA Improvement Targets**: Yara has set a target to improve EBITDA by more than $200 million by the end of 2027 and $350 million by the end of 2030 [27][28]. Production and Operational Excellence - **Production Capacity**: Yara achieved a production capacity of approximately 21 million tons of finished fertilizer, representing an 8% increase in volumes [57]. - **Investment in Production**: Significant investments are being made in expanding production capabilities, including a $50 million investment in Cartagena and a carbon capture project in Sluiskil [58][60]. Market Trends and Challenges - **Urea Market Dynamics**: The urea market saw demand-driven pricing in 2025, with strong sales in India and production issues in other regions affecting supply [38][39]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: Falling natural gas prices in Europe improved margins for producers, with expectations of increased LNG capacity in the coming years [46][47]. - **Carbon Pricing and CBAM**: The implications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on European fertilizer prices were discussed, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties [32][33][49]. Technological Innovations - **Emission Reduction Technologies**: Yara has developed an N2O abatement catalyst that significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to the company's sustainability goals [21][22]. Conclusion - **Future Outlook**: Yara is well-positioned to navigate market uncertainties and capitalize on growth opportunities while maintaining a focus on profitability and sustainability [30][35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has sparked a strong reaction from China, signaling a robust response to perceived unilateral protectionism in global climate policy [1][3]. Group 1: Discriminatory Nature of EU Policy - China's response highlights the unfairness in the EU's carbon emission intensity settings for Chinese products, which are based on biased assumptions rather than objective data, placing Chinese products at a competitive disadvantage [3]. - The EU plans to expand the CBAM's scope to include around 180 downstream products such as machinery, automobiles, and home appliances by 2028, indicating a shift from climate action to trade protectionism [3]. Group 2: Double Standards of the EU - The criticism from China points out the EU's double standards, as it recently relaxed green regulations for fuel vehicles while imposing strict carbon barriers on imports, undermining its image as a global climate leader [5]. - This contradiction reveals that the EU's climate ambitions may be compromised by its own interests, weakening international trust in its climate cooperation efforts [5]. Group 3: China's Determination and Response - The statement from China emphasizes its willingness to cooperate with the EU on climate change while also warning of necessary measures to counter any unfair trade restrictions, showcasing its significant position in the global supply chain [6]. - China has various options for response, including litigation within the WTO framework and adjustments to trade and industrial policies, indicating a strong commitment to protecting its development interests [6]. Group 4: Future of Global Trade and Climate Policy - The implementation of the CBAM marks a new phase in the intersection of global trade and climate policy, expanding the debate to include carbon measurement standards and the discourse on green technology [8]. - China's firm stance against politicizing climate issues and its advocacy for a fair global trade and climate governance system signal the beginning of a critical battle for the rights of developing countries [8].