欧盟方面强调，波黑必须尽快建立排放监测与验证体系（MRV）、全国碳交易系统（ETS），并实现电 力市场与邻国互联，才能避免未来出现更高生产成本。若相关措施继续拖延，从2026年起所有对欧出口 的高碳产品都将被系统性征税。 波黑媒体Energetika 11月24日报道。波黑未能按欧盟要求建立碳排放管理体系、自主征收碳排放证书等 关键机制，导致自明年1月1日起，向欧盟出口电力、钢铁、水泥等高碳产品将被征收碳关税，这将使电 力生产价格明显上升。 欧盟自 2023 年启动"碳边境调节机制"（CBAM），要求非欧盟国家在向欧出口高碳产品时购买排放证 书。若波黑无法完成相关改革，证书费用将由欧盟直接收取。如果波黑完成立法并建立起碳排放交易体 系，可将减少碳税损失。 欧盟驻波黑大使索雷卡此前表示，若波黑通过国家层面的《电力与天然气法》、建立排放交易系统、落 实欧盟能源市场规则等关键改革，可争取电力行业延迟至2030年再被纳入欧盟CBAM体系。但目前距离 期限不足两个月，改革几乎无法完成。 由于波黑未能提前布局，能源成本上升最终将转嫁给消费者，电价及其他商品价格预计将进一步上涨。 （驻波黑使馆经商处） ...

欧盟通过立法把ESG标准变成强制性贸易规则的做法，尤须警惕。2023年落地的碳边境调节机制 （CBAM）要求进口商品按碳排放强度补缴"碳差"，表面是气候工具，实则借"碳成本转嫁"抬高中国产 品入欧门槛。数据显示，中国钢材平均碳强度比欧盟厂高20%，按现行公式，每吨钢需多缴约30欧元。 这一设计既绕开传统关税的透明度义务，又搭乘全球气候议题的"政治正确"，形成"绿色合规"的隐形壁 垒。 当前，欧盟以"规范性力量"自居，将环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准包装为全球治理的"普世准 则"，却在实践中将其异化为新型非关税壁垒。2025年，欧盟对华贸易逆差预计突破历史高位，与其同 步推进的《净零工业法案》《关键原材料法案》及碳边境调节机制（CBAM）形成战略呼应，折射出欧 盟在产业转型困境中寻求制度性优势的深层焦虑。这种以ESG为名的规则重构，正在重塑全球贸易秩 序，也暴露出中欧关系中的结构性矛盾与历史机缘。 更值得警觉的是ESG标准的"工具化"转向。欧盟《供应链尽责管理法规》强制企业追溯上游原料， 实质把中国稀土供应链置于放大镜下；荷兰政府以"国家安全"为由否决安世半导体股权交易，看似技术 安全，实为配合《关键原材料法案 ...

当地时间11月22日深夜，在延期一天之后，第30届联合国气候变化大会（COP30）终于在巴西亚马孙雨林城市贝伦落下帷幕。 此次会议正值《巴黎协定》达成十周年之际，也是在气候危机核心区域首次举行的气候大会。本次大会承受着巨大的政治压力与全球期待，各方 围绕资金、能源转型、贸易与国际合作等关键议题展开激烈博弈。 11月21日，代表参加在巴西贝伦举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方大会（COP30）。 值得注意的是，本届大会历史性地首次出现美国联邦政府缺席的局面。随着特朗普政府今年1月宣布第二次退出《巴黎协定》，美国不仅未派代表 出席，其或长期缺位也令全球气候治理前景蒙上一层阴影。尽管美国地方政府、商界与高校代表仍然大量到场力图填补联邦层面的空白，但在资 金承诺、政治协调与国际规则谈判方面，美国缺席的影响已经清晰显现，并成为本届大会最受讨论的结构性变量。 大会临近闭幕之际，在关于能源转型路线图、反对单边气候贸易措施、推动全球南方诉求等关键议题上，中国的立场和行动备受外界关切。智通 财经（www.thepaper.cn）再次独家专访了中国气候变化事务特使刘振民。 美国缺席：对COP30谈判格局与资金议题的冲 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.1 billion, with net earnings attributable to common stockholders of about $1.1 billion, or $6.39 per diluted share [5][21][22] - In the third quarter of 2025, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $353 million, or $2.19 per diluted share, with EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA both around $670 million [21][22] - The trailing 12-month net cash from operations was $2.6 billion, and free cash flow was $1.7 billion, with a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate of 65% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ammonia utilization rate for the first nine months of 2025 was 97%, with expectations to produce approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia for the full year [14] - Significant progress was made in strategic initiatives, including the full utilization of expanded diesel exhaust fluid rail load-out capabilities, leading to record DEF shipments [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance remained tight, with robust demand from North America, India, and Brazil, while product availability was constrained due to low global inventories and outages [17][18] - The company anticipates that the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain constructive, with strong demand expected to continue [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the world's leader in clean ammonia and has reduced GHG emissions intensity by 25% from its original baseline [6][7] - Plans for the development of the world's largest ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at the Blue Point Complex in Louisiana are underway, with expectations for significant financial and societal benefits [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for nitrogen, stating that nitrogen demand is largely inelastic and not significantly affected by grower profitability [11][12] - The company highlighted the misconception in the market regarding its valuation, noting that it trades at a low cash flow multiple compared to its strong free cash flow generation [13] Other Important Information - An incident at the Yazoo City, Mississippi complex was reported, but all employees and contractors were safe, and the investigation is ongoing [4][24] - The company returned $445 million to shareholders in the third quarter of 2025 and approximately $1.3 billion for the first nine months [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current market conditions and mid-cycle expectations - Management acknowledged that current conditions are above mid-cycle and expect full-year results to exceed mid-cycle numbers due to strong industry conditions [33][34] Question: Pricing premiums for low-carbon ammonia - The company is currently achieving a premium of $20-$25 per ton for low-carbon ammonia sold in Europe, with expectations for this to increase as demand grows [37] Question: Potential risks in the nitrogen outlook - Management indicated that while they assess market conditions daily, they see healthy demand growth and limited supply, making it difficult to identify significant risks [41][42] Question: Addressing the valuation disconnect - Management noted that the market does not fully recognize the company's financial strengths and that continued share repurchases will help address this valuation gap [46][70] Question: Future capital expenditures and maintenance - The company expects to maintain a capital expenditure range of approximately $550 million for its non-Bluepoint network, with additional investments for Bluepoint [50][51] Question: Impact of the Yazoo City incident on production - Management confirmed that the ammonia plant at Yazoo City was not directly affected and production plans remain on track [52]

Core Points - India and the European Union have agreed to continue discussions on sensitive issues related to steel, automotive industries, and carbon taxes as part of the proposed free trade agreement [1] - Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met with EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, advocating for the elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and the establishment of a transparent and predictable regulatory framework to enhance bilateral trade [1] - The discussions will focus on the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and other EU regulations, which could impose tariffs ranging from 20% to 35% on Indian exports of steel, aluminum, and cement to the EU, representing a significant loss for India [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of establishing a product carbon footprint management system to quantify and reduce carbon emissions, which aids in green transformation and enhances market competitiveness [1][5] - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of a product carbon footprint management system since the 18th National Congress, with policies being rapidly introduced to standardize carbon footprint accounting and management [2][5] - The current product carbon footprint management system in China is still in need of improvement, particularly in areas such as data transparency, accuracy, and the establishment of regulatory frameworks [2][3][4] Group 2 - Supply chain carbon footprint management faces challenges due to complexity and lack of regulatory frameworks for evaluation and disclosure [3][4] - There is a significant discrepancy in carbon footprint certification standards across different countries, complicating global trade and compliance for Chinese enterprises [4][7] - The establishment of a carbon footprint data sharing platform is crucial for enhancing data transparency and accuracy, requiring collaboration among government, industry associations, and third-party organizations [5][6] Group 3 - Improving carbon labeling certification and information disclosure systems is essential for promoting green transformation in supply chains [6][8] - Strengthening international recognition of carbon footprint certification standards can reduce trade barriers and enhance China's influence in global carbon management [7][8] - The cultivation of professionals in carbon footprint management is vital for supporting the development of the management system, necessitating collaboration between educational institutions and industry [8][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The forum focused on "creating digital product passports to support sustainable trade development," highlighting the importance of energy innovation and digital empowerment in achieving ESG goals and industrial upgrades [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Structure and Challenges - The global energy structure is still dominated by fossil fuels, accounting for 80% of the total energy mix, with significant regional disparities in energy reliance [3]. - Non-OECD countries in regions like Asia-Pacific and the Middle East continue to heavily depend on fossil fuels, resulting in high carbon intensity, while OECD countries have lower carbon intensity due to decreasing coal usage [3]. - The upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Digital Product Passport (DPP) regulations will pose significant challenges for developing countries outside the EU [3]. Group 2: Opportunities in Energy Transition - Historical data shows that global wind and solar power installations have increased by tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of times over the past 30 years, with China nearing a 500,000-fold increase by 2024, showcasing a new low-carbon development path [3][4]. - Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050-2060 requires an annual growth rate of over 8%-10% in zero-carbon energy or faster growth in negative carbon technologies [3]. Group 3: AI and Energy Innovation - The synergy between AI and energy is seen as a major trend for energy innovation, focusing on clean, low-carbon, and efficient energy solutions [4]. - The "AI + Energy" action plan released by the National Energy Administration and the National Development and Reform Commission is a response to the growing energy demands of AI data centers [4]. Group 4: Trade and Investment Opportunities - The EU's CBAM and DPP should be viewed as opportunities rather than just challenges, as China's green products like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles can provide significant carbon reduction benefits during their usage phase [5]. - The DPP can transform invisible environmental benefits into visible, inclusive real-world assets, attracting investment and financing to create a new paradigm for development in the Global South [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has successfully restructured and improved its profitability after facing significant losses and a risk of delisting in previous years. It has a solid market position and a well-established industrial chain in coal, electricity, aluminum, and aluminum processing [1][14]. - The company is focusing on green transformation and expanding its electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is expected to enhance its profitability due to lower electricity costs in the Sichuan region starting in 2025 [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of the green aluminum pricing mechanism and the company's potential to gain cost pricing power and market access in the European and American green supply chains [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 1993 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2002. It has a comprehensive industrial chain with capacities of 2.25 million tons of coal, 750,000 tons of aluminum, and 690,000 tons of aluminum processing [1][14]. - After a significant restructuring in 2021, the company returned to profitability in 2021 and successfully lifted its delisting risk in 2022 [1][14]. Section 2: Electrolytic Aluminum and Green Transformation - In September 2023, the company acquired a 25% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 630,000 tons, with plans to reach 750,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The company anticipates a decrease in electricity costs for its electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan starting in 2025, which will enhance its profitability [3]. Section 3: Green Transition and High-Quality Development - The report discusses the impact of carbon reduction policies and the evolving pricing logic for aluminum, emphasizing the importance of green transformation for future competitiveness [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the green aluminum market, with expectations of significant growth in profitability from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Section 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.1, 6.3, and 5.5, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4][5].

Report Title - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 84, 2025)" [1] Report Date - The report was released on May 21, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The EUA market is expected to move in a volatile range of €67 - 75. Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up TTF prices, and EUA has followed suit [2] Market Conditions Auction - On May 20, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.69 euros/ton, a 1.80% increase, with a bid - cover ratio of 1.39 and auction revenue of 22,942 million euros. The auction volume was 324,550,000 tons. On May 19, 2025, the auction price was 69.44 euros/ton, with a bid - cover ratio of 1.29 and auction revenue of 22,537 million euros [2][4] Futures - On May 20, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 73.18 euros/ton, a 3.92% increase, and the trading volume was 29,300 lots, a decrease of 0.52. The open interest was 316,700 lots, unchanged [2][5] Spot - On May 20, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 72.14 euros/ton, a 3.95% increase. The trading volume was 2,794 lots, a 1.12% increase. The container shipping carbon cost was 489 US dollars/TEU [5] Strategy and Logic Bullish Factors - Improved UK - EU relations may bring prospects for trade facilitation and economic integration; European stock indices closed higher; EUA auctions will be reduced by four in the next two weeks, providing short - term price support; Israel's plan to air - strike Iranian nuclear facilities has pushed up oil prices; Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have increased after the US - Russia leaders' call [2] Bearish Factors - Russia has initiated a WTO dispute over the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for deeper cooperation between China and the EU in light of the uncertain international political and economic landscape, particularly focusing on fair trade rules and maximizing the benefits of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for sustainable development [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Potential Impact of EU CBAM - The EU's CBAM may lead to increased costs for certain member states, with significant disparities in impact, particularly affecting countries like Bulgaria, Ireland, and Greece that rely heavily on imports from non-EU countries [2]. - For China, the short-term effects of CBAM are limited, but the long-term implications are substantial, as the mechanism initially targets industries like steel and aluminum, which are significant in China's exports to the EU [2]. Opportunities and Challenges in China-EU Economic Cooperation - China and the EU share a consistent stance on climate action, which can be leveraged to enhance cooperation in clean energy projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on nuclear, wind, and solar energy [3]. - The challenges posed by CBAM include its role as a tool for achieving climate goals, which may restrict trade flexibility and highlight differences in resource endowments and development stages between China and the EU [4]. Development Directions for China-EU Economic Cooperation - Strengthening policy dialogue and coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms is essential to reduce friction caused by climate policies, with suggestions for regular discussions on carbon pricing and CBAM implementation details [7]. - Improving the carbon emission accounting system to enhance data credibility and accuracy is crucial, with proposals for unified standards and data sharing to mitigate uncertainties in CBAM implementation [8]. - Exploring mechanisms for redistributing CBAM revenues to support low-carbon transitions in developing countries can help alleviate the impact of CBAM on global trade dynamics [9]. - Promoting green technology cooperation is vital, leveraging China's strengths in clean energy and the EU's comprehensive green governance framework to enhance low-carbon industrial development [9].