Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has shifted public sentiment from excitement to concern, prompting discussions about the implications of such price movements and consumer behavior in the gold market [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with prices reaching 728 RMB per gram for 24K gold on April 8, and over 700 RMB per gram for other brands shortly after [1]. - Despite the rising prices, the retail gold market in lower-tier cities has remained relatively quiet, with many consumers hesitant to make purchases due to fears of further price increases [2][4]. - The consensus in the jewelry industry suggests that as gold prices rise, consumer interest and sales tend to decline, indicating a paradox where higher prices lead to lower sales volume [4][12]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - In lower-tier cities, consumers are increasingly cautious, with many opting to observe rather than purchase, reflecting a broader trend of conservative spending among the general public [4][6]. - The demand for gold among younger consumers, particularly for wedding-related purchases, has been impacted by rising prices, leading to frustrations and delays in buying decisions [7][9]. - Many consumers are turning to old gold jewelry for trade-ins or exchanges to mitigate the impact of high prices, with some stores offering discounts on processing fees for such transactions [9][11]. Group 3: Brand Dynamics - The competition among brands has intensified, with traditional brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang adapting their product lines to attract younger consumers, yet facing challenges in lower-tier markets where price sensitivity is higher [12][14]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards lower-priced, high-purity gold products has led to a decline in sales for branded items that carry higher premiums [12][16]. - The market dynamics indicate that in the current environment, the purity and weight of gold are more critical to consumers than brand recognition, especially in lower-tier markets [12][16].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 周大福（01929） 证券研究报告 2024年04月 16日 投资评级 季度内零售值同比+12.4%，整体店效稳步提升 行业 非必需性消费/专业零 售 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 事件：公司发布截止2024年 3月 31日止三个月主要经营数据。FY24Q4 集团销售额同比+12.4%，其中中国内地零售值同比+12.4%，中国香港、 当前价格 10.46港元 中国澳门及其他市场同比+12.8%。另外，季内中国内地同店销售同比 目标价格 港元 -2.7%，中国香港及中国澳门同店销售同比+4.5%。 基本数据 同店销售表现：中国内地同店销售受惠于节日需求，但由于基数较高， 港股总股本(百万股) 9,987.74 季内同店销售减少。但中国香港受益于入境旅游持续恢复，同店销售同 港股总市值(百万港元) 104,471.73 比+8.9%，中国澳门同店销售同比-7.1%。 每股净资产(港元) 2.62 加盟表现：受益于整体店铺效益提升及过去12个月的新开门店，中国 资产负债率(%) 68.03 内地周大福珠宝加盟店的零售值季内显著提升18.3%，而且对于相关零 一 年内最高/最低(港元) 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月15日 周大福（01929.HK） 买入 1-3 月零售额增长稳健，持续推进门店优化提效  公司研究·公司快评  商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ  投资评级：买入（维持评级） 证券分析师： 张峻豪 021-60933168 zhangjh@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980517070001 证券分析师： 柳旭 0755-81981311 liuxu1@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980522120001 事项： 公司发布2024年1-3月未经审核的主要经营数据，整体零售值同比增长12.4%，其中中国（不含港澳台） 市场零售值同比增长12.4%，中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场同比增长12.8%，整体在去年一季度较高基 数下保持了稳健增长。 国信零售观点：1）同店方面，公司中国香港及中国澳门市场的同店销售继续增长态势，1-3月实现4.5% 的增长。中国（不含港澳台）市场同店销售同比下降2.7%，其中黄金首饰产品的同店销售增长3.4%，受 益龙年主题下黄金首饰及摆件的销售增长。2）开店方面，公司继续贯彻强化单店效益的规划，季内对低 效门店进行调整，净关店94 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a 12.4% year-on-year growth in RSV for Q4 FY2024, meeting expectations, with strong performance in both mainland China and other markets [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing store quality and enhancing single-store operations while being cautious about new store openings [2] - Revenue for FY2024 is expected to grow by 15%, with a projected profit increase of around 25% [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the period of January to March 2024, the company's RSV grew by 12.4% year-on-year, with mainland RSV also increasing by 12.4% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets seeing a 12.8% growth [1] - In mainland China, the growth was supported by improved store efficiency and a slight net increase in store openings, with franchise stores showing an 18.3% increase in RSV [1] Store Operations - The company has slowed down its store opening pace, closing 89 stores in mainland China while opening 143 stores throughout FY2024 [2] - The focus is on optimizing the existing store structure and enhancing the performance of individual stores [2] Product Performance - Sales of gold jewelry showed a positive trend with a 3.4% increase in same-store sales, while sales of jewelry inlaid products faced pressure, declining by 19.5% [1] - The average price of gold products in mainland China increased by 10% year-on-year, contributing to the strong performance of gold jewelry [1] Financial Projections - The company expects FY2024 revenue to reach HKD 109.02 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.1% [3] - The projected net profit for FY2024 is HKD 6.743 billion, reflecting a 25.2% year-on-year increase [3] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for FY2024-2026 to HKD 67.43 billion, HKD 85.46 billion, and HKD 100.12 billion respectively [2]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 批零贸易业 [ Table_Main[周I Tnaf 大bol]e 福_Ti（tle] 1 929） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 11.36 黄金品类延续高景气，渠道聚焦提质增效 2024.04.14 海 ——周大福FY2024Q4 主要经营数据点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 刘越男(分析师) 苏颖(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 10.30-16.08 当前股本（百万股） 9,988 公 021-38677706 021-38038344 当前市值（百万港元） 113,461 司 liuyuenan@gtjas.com suying@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880516030003 S0880522110001 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 FY2024Q4经营业绩符合预期，门店渠道聚焦提质增效；受益金价上行提振，黄金品 周大福 恒生指数 香 类延续高景气。 4% 摘要： 港 -2% [T abl维e_S持um“m增ary持] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In FY2024Q4, the company's retail sales in mainland China increased by 12.4% year-on-year, with retail sales in Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions growing by 12.8% [3] - Same-store sales in mainland China declined by 2.7% due to a high base effect from the previous year, while same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 4.5% driven by the recovery of inbound tourism [3] - The demand for gold products remains strong, with gold jewelry and products contributing 84.8% of retail sales in mainland China during FY2024Q4 [3] - The company is focusing on improving the operational efficiency of its retail channels, closing 89 underperforming stores in mainland China while opening 143 new stores [3][4] - New franchise stores showed impressive performance, with retail sales in mainland China growing by 18.3% year-on-year, contributing 70.4% to mainland retail sales [4] - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downwards for FY2024-FY2026, with the latest closing price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 15/13/11 times for FY2024-FY2026 [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is projected to be 108,524 in FY2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.22% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 7,588 million HKD in FY2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 40.93% [2] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.76 HKD for FY2024, with a P/E ratio of 14.95 [2]

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 周大福(1929.HK)FY2024Q4 点评：零售值增 公司研究 长符合预期，新店爬坡贡献度提升 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年4月13日 [T周ab大le福_S(to1c9k2A9n.dHRKan)k ] [Table_Summary] 投资评级 事件：公司发布FY2024Q4（截至2024.3.31的3个月）经营数据，集团零 售值增长12.4%。 上次评级 点评： [T刘ab嘉le仁_A u社th零or&]美 护首席分析师 中国大陆春节销售表现亮眼，加盟新店贡献主要增长。中国大陆零售值同增 执业编号：S1500522110002 联系电话：15000310173 12.4%，贡献集团零售值的 88.6%，主要得益于：1）消费者对于黄金的持 邮 箱：liujiaren@cindasc.com 续偏好；2）公司成功的节庆促销&龙年新品；3）加盟新店的稳定爬坡&经营 提效，其中FY2024Q4直营同店（经营满2年门店）零售值同比下滑2.7%， 蔡昕妤 商贸零售分析师 同店销量同比下滑6.9%，加盟店零售 ...

纺织服饰/饰品 公 司 研 周大福（01929.HK） 战略聚焦经营质量提升，主动控制拓店进程 究 2024年04月13日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 黄泽鹏（分析师） 骆峥（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn luozheng@kysec.cn 日期 2024/4/12 证 书编号：S0790519110001 证书编号：S0790122040015 港 当前股价(港元) 11.360  事件：公司2024财年第四季度零售值同比+12.4% 股 一年最高最低(港元) 16.680/9.910 公司发布FY2024Q4经营数据：FY2024Q4实现零售值同比+12.4%。考虑公司提 公 司 总市值(亿港元) 1,134.61 升盈利能力见效，我们上调2024-2026财年盈利预测，预计2024-2026财年归母 信 流通市值(亿港元) 1,134.61 净利润为 76.49（+8.34）/89.55（+7.91）/100.49（+5.40）亿港元，对应 EPS 为 息 总股本(亿股) 99.88 0.77（+0.08）/0.90（+0.08）/1.01（+0.05）港元 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of FY2024 increased by 6.4% year-on-year to HK$49,526 million, with a growth of 11.3% on a constant exchange rate basis[12]. - Core operating profit rose by 37.7% to HK$5,989 million, exceeding revenue growth, driven by optimized pricing strategies and operational efficiency[12]. - Profit attributable to shareholders increased to HK$4,551 million, a rise of 36.4% compared to HK$3,336 million in 2022[24]. - Earnings per share rose to HK$0.46, reflecting a 39.4% increase from HK$0.33 in 2022[24]. - Revenue for the six months ended September 30, 2023, was HK$49,526 million, representing a 6.4% increase from HK$46,535 million in 2022[24]. - Core operating profit for the same period was HK$5,989 million, up 37.8% from HK$4,349 million in 2022[24]. - The Group's profit attributable to shareholders increased by 36.4%, primarily due to the surge in gold prices and effective pricing strategy optimization[111]. - The Group's major operating profit increased by 37.7% year-on-year to HK$5,989 million, with a corresponding profit margin of 12.1%[112]. Profitability Metrics - Adjusted gross profit margin improved by 140 basis points year-on-year to 23.8%, while core operating profit margin expanded by 280 basis points to 12.1%[12]. - Gross profit margin for the period was 24.9%, slightly up from 23.6% in 2022[24]. - SG&A expenses decreased by 4.5% to HK$6,150 million, with the SG&A ratio improving by 140 basis points to 12.4%[125]. - The SG&A to revenue ratio significantly decreased by 730 basis points to 16.4%, with fixed costs accounting for approximately 65% of SG&A expenses[178]. - The SG&A ratio improved by 100 basis points to 11.5% for the period ended September 30, 2023[138]. Market Performance - Revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets surged by 57.7% during the period due to improved inbound tourism[12]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) in Hong Kong and Macau reached 59.6%, driven by both average selling price and volume increases[104]. - Retail sales value (RSV) in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets surged by 58.5% during 1HFY2024, with average daily customer traffic increasing by 51.1% year-on-year[74][76]. - The number of retail points in Mainland China increased to 7,699, while Hong Kong saw a slight decrease to 67[27]. - Retail sales volume in Mainland China reached 10,724,000 units, while Hong Kong and Macau recorded 925,000 units sold[27]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on five strategic priorities: brand revamp, product optimisation, accelerated digitalisation, operational efficiency, and talent cultivation to enhance competitiveness[29]. - The brand revamp is progressing with the launch of new designs for the HUÁ Collection and the first-ever 360-degree global marketing campaign in 1HFY2024[12]. - A centralized marketing strategy was implemented in 1HFY2024 to promote consistent brand recognition and maximize the impact of global marketing efforts[49]. - The Group is focused on nurturing a people-first workplace culture and strengthening talent development as part of its strategic growth roadmap[45]. - The Group aims to enhance earnings quality and returns to equity and capital while focusing on five strategic priorities for sustainable growth[42]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - Net cash from operating activities was HK$7,919 million, significantly higher than the negative cash flow of HK$905 million in 2022[26]. - Inventory turnover period was 312 days, consistent with the previous year, indicating stable inventory management[25]. - The company is managing cash flows and capital expenditure prudently due to a higher cost of capital, leading to a selective approach to new store openings[65]. E-commerce and Retail Trends - E-commerce contributed 4.6% to the RSV and about 11% in volume during the first half of FY2024[66]. - The average selling price (ASP) of gold jewellery and products increased to approximately HK$5,600 in 1HFY2024, up from HK$5,200 in 1HFY2023[134]. - The ASP of gem-set jewellery rose to about HK$8,100 in 1HFY2024, compared to HK$7,100 in 1HFY2023[134]. - Brick and mortar stores accounted for approximately 95% of the retail sales value (RSV) in the Mainland during 1HFY2024[157]. Cultural and Social Impact - The company is committed to preserving Chinese cultural heritage through partnerships with academic institutions and the introduction of new product designs[36]. - A social impact strategy has been formulated focusing on promoting Chinese culture, talent development, and enhancing family wellbeing[37]. Economic Outlook - The Group expects FY2024 to be a year of gradual recovery, supported by government initiatives to boost domestic consumption in the Mainland and Hong Kong[81][83]. - China's economy is showing steady recovery, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending and urbanisation[31].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of FY2024 increased by 6.4% year-on-year to HK$49,526 million, with a growth of 11.3% on a constant exchange rate basis[13]. - Core operating profit rose by 37.7% to HK$5,989 million, exceeding revenue growth, driven by optimized pricing strategies and operational efficiency[13]. - Adjusted gross profit margin improved by 140 basis points year-on-year to 23.8%, while core operating profit margin expanded by 280 basis points to 12.1%[13]. - Profit attributable to shareholders for the period was HK$4,551 million, with earnings per share of HK$0.46[25]. - The Group's profit attributable to shareholders increased by 36.4%, primarily due to the surge in gold prices and effective pricing strategy optimization[112]. - The Group's major operating profit increased by 37.7% year-on-year to HK$5,989 million, with a corresponding profit margin of 12.1%[113]. - The SG&A expenses decreased by 4.5% to HK$6,150 million, with the SG&A ratio improving by 140 basis points to 12.4%[126]. - The overall retail value growth was 10.8% in 1HFY2024, with gold jewellery and products growing by 15.1%[155]. Store Operations and Expansion - As of September 30, 2023, there were 7,458 CHOW TAI FOOK JEWELLERY points of sale in Mainland China, focusing on enhancing store productivity and customer experience[13]. - The total number of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery stores increased to 7,458 as of September 30, 2023, with a net addition of 189 stores during the period[153]. - A total of 189 new Chow Tai Fook Jewellery points of sale (POS) were opened in Mainland China during 1HFY2024, with a gross opening of 333 stores and 144 closures[169]. - The company is reviewing its store segmentation strategy to enhance store productivity and customer experience[62]. - The number of retail points in Mainland China increased to 7,699, while Hong Kong saw a slight decrease to 67[28]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) in Mainland China was reported at (3.5)% for the latest period, while Hong Kong and Macau experienced a significant decline of (27.5)%[28]. - The return of Mainland tourists has significantly boosted store traffic, particularly in Hong Kong and Macau, contributing to business recovery[36]. - Retail sales volume in Mainland China reached 10,724,000 units, while Hong Kong and Macau recorded 925,000 units[28]. - Retail sales value (RSV) in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets surged by 58.5% during 1HFY2024, with average daily customer traffic increasing by 51.1% year-on-year[75][76]. Product Development and Marketing - The brand revamp is progressing with the launch of new designs for the HUÁ Collection and the first-ever 360-degree global marketing campaign in 1HFY2024[13]. - The Group made notable progress in rationalizing its product portfolio and optimizing the product planning process, successfully launching new designs of the HUÁ Collection and the HEARTS ON FIRE brand's VELA Collection[47]. - A centralized marketing strategy was implemented in 1HFY2024 to promote consistent brand recognition, maximizing the impact of global marketing efforts[50]. - The HEARTS ON FIRE brand launched the VELA Collection during 1HFY2024, featuring signature cut diamonds[55]. Economic and Industry Context - China's economy is showing steady recovery, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending and urbanisation[32]. - The government’s focus on domestic consumption is expected to support retail and economic activity in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau[82][84]. - The jewellery market in ASEAN countries is expected to benefit from increased tourism spending and robust local demand due to regional economic recovery[85]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on five strategic priorities: brand revamp, product optimisation, accelerated digitalisation, operational efficiency, and talent cultivation to enhance competitiveness[30]. - The Group aims to enhance earnings quality and returns to equity and capital while focusing on five strategic priorities to sustain growth[43]. - The Group is focused on nurturing a people-first workplace culture and strengthening talent development as part of its strategic growth roadmap[46]. Inventory and Cash Management - The inventory turnover period was 312 days as of September 30, 2023[26]. - The company reported a net cash from operating activities of HK$7,919 million for the six months ended September 30, 2023[27]. - The net assets per share as of September 30, 2023, were HK$2.7, with a net gearing ratio of 75.3%[26]. E-commerce and Digital Sales - E-commerce contributed 4.6% to the RSV and about 11% in volume during the first half of FY2024[67]. - The e-commerce business accounted for approximately 4.6% of retail sales value (RSV) in Mainland China, with an average selling price (ASP) increasing to HK$2,100 in 1HFY2024 from HK$1,800 in 1HFY2023[159].