Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [5] Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a significant increase in retail value for FY2026Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, indicating a strong acceleration compared to Q2. Retail values in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 16.9%, 22.9%, and other respective figures [1] - The company is actively optimizing its product and channel strategies, with a focus on enhancing store performance and e-commerce growth. The same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4% for direct stores and 26.3% for franchise stores [1][2] - The e-commerce segment saw a robust growth of 25.3%, driven by promotional events and successful IP collaborations, contributing to 7.4% of mainland retail value and 17.0% of sales volume [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026, Chow Tai Fook is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.8% to HKD 93.03 billion, with a net profit growth of 28.1% to HKD 7.575 billion. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is HKD 0.77 [2][4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.575 billion, HKD 8.559 billion, and HKD 9.646 billion, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for FY2026 [2][4] - The average selling price of gold jewelry in mainland China increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 51% for priced gold jewelry and 83% for standard gold jewelry, positively impacting sales [1][8] Market Expansion - Chow Tai Fook is pursuing global expansion, with notable performance in Macau, where same-store sales grew by 31.3%. The company is also optimizing its store network in mature markets while entering new potential markets [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Chow Tai Fook's retail value for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (October to December 2025) increased by 18% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 21% and 26% in mainland China for direct and wholesale channels, respectively, and 14% in the Hong Kong and Macau markets [1] Group 1 - Chow Tai Fook is actively promoting marketing activities for the Spring Festival and has launched a new product line for the New Year, with management expecting same-store sales to achieve low single-digit year-on-year growth during the Spring Festival period [1] - CICC has raised its earnings per share forecast for Chow Tai Fook for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 3% to HKD 0.90 and HKD 0.96, respectively [1] - The target price for Chow Tai Fook has been increased by 6% to HKD 17.85, corresponding to a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio for fiscal year 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [5] Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a significant acceleration in retail value growth for FY2026Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Retail values in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 16.9%, 22.9%, and 14.3% respectively, indicating an improving jewelry consumption atmosphere [1][2] - The company is actively optimizing its product and channel strategies, with a focus on enhancing store performance and expanding e-commerce. The same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4% for direct stores and 26.3% for franchise stores, benefiting from strong e-commerce growth [1][2] - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce business saw a retail value increase of 25.3%, accounting for 7.4% of mainland retail value and 17.0% of sales volume, driven by successful promotional events and IP collaborations [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026, Chow Tai Fook is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.8% to HKD 93.03 billion and a net profit growth of 28.1% to HKD 7.575 billion. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is HKD 0.77, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times [2][4] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth of 4% in FY2026, with net profit expected to reach HKD 8.559 billion in FY2027 and HKD 9.646 billion in FY2028 [2][4] Market Expansion - Chow Tai Fook is pursuing global expansion, focusing on optimizing channels in mature markets while gradually entering new markets with growth potential. The company reported a 22.9% increase in retail value in Hong Kong, with Macau showing a remarkable growth of 31.3% [2][4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月22日 周大福（01929.HK） 销售增长进一步加速，定价首饰占比提升利好毛利率 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 事项： 公司公告：公司发布 2025 年 10-12 月未经审核的主要经营数据，整体零售值同比增长 17.8%，环比 7-9 月 4.1%的增长加速 13.7pct。其中中国内地市场零售值增长 16.9%，中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场零售值 增 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the EPS forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) for FY26/27 by 3% to HKD 0.90/0.96, maintaining an outperform rating with a target price increase of 6% to HKD 17.85, indicating a 30% upside potential based on a 20x FY26 P/E ratio [1] Company Current Situation - The company reported a retail value growth of 18% year-on-year for Q3 FY26 (October-December 2025), with same-store sales in mainland China increasing by 21% and 26% for direct and wholesale channels, respectively, while the Hong Kong and Macau markets saw a 14% increase [2][3] Retail Performance Exceeds Expectations - The overall retail value growth of 18% in Q3 FY26 surpassed management expectations, driven by a 17% increase in mainland China retail value, with direct same-store sales growing by 21% and wholesale by 26%. Excluding watch business, direct same-store sales increased by 26%. October showed the best performance due to price increase expectations and strong demand, while November and December experienced high single-digit same-store growth despite the impact of gold value-added tax policy adjustments. The company optimized channels by closing 230 Chow Tai Fook brand stores during the quarter, with an average monthly store efficiency of RMB 1.4 million, significantly higher than closed stores [3][4] Strong Performance in Mainland Pricing Jewelry - The retail value and same-store sales of mainland pricing jewelry grew by 60% and 53%, respectively, driven by signature products and jadeite categories, with sales proportion increasing by 11 percentage points to 40%. Retail value and same-store sales of priced gold jewelry saw a slight decline of 0.6% and an increase of 13%, respectively. In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, priced gold jewelry retail value and same-store sales increased by 47% and 43%, outperforming priced jewelry, which saw declines of 7% and 15% [4] Positive Outlook and Upgraded Annual Guidance - Despite high base effects in Q4 FY26, the company is actively promoting Spring Festival marketing activities and launching a new product line for the New Year. Management expects same-store sales during the Spring Festival to achieve low to mid-single-digit year-on-year growth. Due to strong sales performance and gold price conditions, the company has upgraded its FY26 full-year guidance, projecting revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits, with gross margin increasing to 31.5%-32.5% and operating profit margin nearing 20%. Additionally, the company anticipates that gold loan losses will be similar to FY25 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year for the period from October to December 2025, with a sequential increase of 4.1% compared to the previous quarter, accelerating by 13.7 percentage points [3]. - In the mainland China market, retail value grew by 16.9%, while the retail value in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets increased by 22.9% [3]. - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4%, with a sequential acceleration of 13.8 percentage points, while franchise stores saw a 26.3% growth, accelerating by 17.7 percentage points [3]. - The high-margin priced jewelry category saw a retail value increase of 59.6% in mainland China, contributing 40.1% to total retail value, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company continues to optimize store efficiency, closing 228 stores during the quarter, ending with a total of 5,813 stores, with expectations of a reduced closure rate moving into the fiscal year 2027 [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - The overall retail value growth of 17.8% indicates strong consumer demand, particularly in high-margin jewelry segments [3]. - The acceleration in same-store sales growth reflects effective strategies in product innovation and channel optimization [4]. Product Structure - The significant growth in high-margin priced jewelry suggests a successful focus on premium product offerings, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [3][4]. Store Strategy - The strategy of closing underperforming stores while focusing on enhancing store efficiency is likely to contribute positively to future performance [3][4]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the fiscal years 2026-2028 has been revised upwards to HKD 86.37 billion, 96.46 billion, and 105.59 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.7, 14.0, and 12.8 times [4].

每经AI快讯，周大福(01929.HK)涨超4%，截至发稿涨4.38%，报14.31港元，成交额1.56亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929) reported a significant increase in retail value for the third fiscal quarter, indicating strong sales growth in both mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau markets [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for the third fiscal quarter increased by 17.8% year-on-year [1] - Same-store sales growth in mainland China reached 21.4% for direct stores and 26.3% for franchise stores [1] - Excluding the watch business, same-store sales growth for direct stores was 25.6% [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - Same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 14.3%, with Hong Kong increasing by 10.1% and Macau by 31.3% [1] Group 3: Product Performance - The retail value growth of signature product lines and jade jewelry accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 59.6% [1] - The company capitalized on the rising gold prices through product innovation and optimized channel positioning, driving same-store growth [1] - Products priced by weight benefited from the release of pent-up demand and the year-end peak season, showing strong performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the EPS forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) for FY26/27 by 3% to HKD 0.90/0.96, maintaining an outperform rating with a target price increase of 6% to HKD 17.85, indicating a 30% upside potential based on a 20x FY26 P/E ratio [1] Company Status - The company reported a retail value growth of 18% year-on-year for 3QFY26 (October-December 2025), with same-store sales growth of 21% and 26% for direct and wholesale in mainland China, and 14% in the Hong Kong and Macau markets [2] Retail Performance Exceeds Expectations - The overall retail value increased by 18% year-on-year in 3QFY26, surpassing management expectations. In mainland China, retail value grew by 17%, with same-store sales increasing by 21% and 26% for direct and wholesale respectively. Excluding watch business, same-store sales for direct increased by 26%. October saw the best performance due to price increase expectations and strong demand, while November and December experienced high single-digit same-store growth despite the impact of gold value-added tax policy adjustments. The company optimized channels, closing 230 Chow Tai Fook brand stores during the quarter, with an average monthly store efficiency of RMB 1.4 million, significantly higher than closed stores [3][4] Outstanding Performance of Mainland Pricing Jewelry - The retail value and same-store sales of mainland pricing jewelry increased by 60% and 53% respectively in 3QFY26, with sales proportion rising by 11 percentage points to 40%. Retail value and same-store sales of priced gold jewelry decreased by 0.6% and increased by 13% respectively. In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, retail value and same-store sales of priced gold jewelry increased by 47% and 43%, while pricing jewelry saw declines of 7% and 15% [4] Positive Outlook and Upgraded Annual Guidance - Despite high base effects in 4QFY26, the company is actively promoting Spring Festival marketing activities and launching a new product line for the New Year. Management expects same-store sales to achieve low single-digit year-on-year growth during the Spring Festival. Due to strong sales performance and gold price conditions, the company has upgraded its FY26 full-year guidance, projecting revenue growth in the low single digits, gross margin improvement to 31.5%-32.5%, and operating profit margin nearing 20%. Additionally, the company anticipates that gold loan losses will be similar to FY25 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929) reported a significant increase in retail value for the third fiscal quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, driven by strong sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for the third fiscal quarter increased by 17.8% year-on-year [1] - Same-store sales growth in mainland China reached 21.4% for direct stores and 26.3% for franchise stores [1] - Excluding the watch business, same-store sales growth for direct stores was 25.6% [1] Group 2: Regional Sales Breakdown - Same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 14.3% year-on-year, with Hong Kong increasing by 10.1% and Macau by 31.3% [1] - The strong sales growth in mainland China was supported by the performance of signature product lines and jade jewelry, with retail value growth accelerating to 59.6% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The company capitalized on the rising gold prices through product innovation and optimized channel positioning, which were key drivers of same-store growth [1] - The demand for weight-based pricing products benefited from the release of pent-up demand and the year-end peak season, contributing to positive performance [1]