麦格理发布研报称，基于不变2027财年15倍预测市盈率，将周大福(01929)目标价上调5.9%，从18.7港元 升至19.8港元;评级跑赢大市。 周大福中国内地自营店、加盟店同店销售增长从2026年第二财季的7.6%、8.6%，提升至第三财季 21.4%、26.3%;港澳同店销售增长从6.2%上升至14.3%。集团管理层预计，由于基期较高，即将到来的 农历新年同店销售将录得低至中单位数增长;并将全年营收、同店销售增长指引从低单位数、中单位 数，上调至低中单位数、中高单位数。 因产品组合利好、金价上涨及营运杠杆，麦格理将周大福2026至2028财年净利润预测分别上调3.6%、 6%、4.5%;营收预测略微上调0.8%、0.9%、0.9%;毛利率上调1个百分点、0.9个百分点、0.6个百分点;息 税前利润率上调0.3个百分点、0.9个百分点、0.6个百分点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook (01929) by 5.9%, from HKD 18.7 to HKD 19.8, based on a 15x forecast P/E for the fiscal year 2027, maintaining an outperform rating [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth for Chow Tai Fook's self-operated and franchised stores in mainland China increased from 7.6% and 8.6% in Q2 FY2026 to 21.4% and 26.3% in Q3 FY2026 [1] - Same-store sales growth in Hong Kong and Macau rose from 6.2% to 14.3% [1] Group 2: Management Guidance - The management expects that due to a high base effect, same-store sales during the upcoming Lunar New Year will record low to mid-single-digit growth [1] - Full-year revenue and same-store sales growth guidance has been raised from low single-digit and mid-single-digit to low mid-single-digit and mid-high single-digit [1] Group 3: Profit and Revenue Forecasts - Macquarie has adjusted Chow Tai Fook's net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 upwards by 3.6%, 6%, and 4.5% respectively [1] - Revenue forecasts have been slightly increased by 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% for the same periods [1] - Gross margin estimates have been raised by 1 percentage point, 0.9 percentage points, and 0.6 percentage points [1] - EBIT margin forecasts have been adjusted upwards by 0.3 percentage points, 0.9 percentage points, and 0.6 percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates significant growth in same-store sales for Chow Tai Fook's self-operated and franchised stores, with projections for future sales growth adjustments due to high base effects [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth for Chow Tai Fook's self-operated stores increased from 7.6% and 8.6% in Q2 of FY2026 to 21.4% and 26.3% in Q3 [1] - Same-store sales growth in Hong Kong and Macau rose from 6.2% to 14.3% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Management expects same-store sales during the upcoming Lunar New Year to record low to mid-single-digit growth due to a high base effect [1] - Full-year revenue and same-store sales growth guidance has been raised from low single-digit and mid-single-digit to low mid-single-digit and mid-high single-digit [1] Group 3: Profit and Revenue Forecasts - Macquarie has raised Chow Tai Fook's net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 by 3.6%, 6%, and 4.5% respectively, due to favorable product mix, rising gold prices, and operational leverage [1] - Revenue forecasts have been slightly adjusted upwards by 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% for the same periods [1] Group 4: Target Price Adjustment - Based on a 15 times forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for FY2027, Macquarie has increased the target price from HKD 18.7 to HKD 19.8, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Chow Tai Fook's performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026 ended strongly, with same-store sales growth in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau increasing by 21.4% and 14.3% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company anticipates a low single-digit to mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in same-store sales during the Chinese New Year period, tightening discounting in January to build momentum for February promotions while increasing marketing expenditure [1] - Based on adjustments to profit forecasts, rolling valuations, and the impact of rising gold prices leading to industry revaluation, the target price for Chow Tai Fook has been raised from HKD 13 to HKD 14.2, maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year 2026 forecast, it is expected that Chow Tai Fook's sales, gross margin, and operating profit margin will grow by 3%, 31.8%, and 19.8%, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) experienced a significant stock price increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 14.41, following the announcement of strong retail performance for the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8% in retail value [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the third quarter ending December, Chow Tai Fook reported a retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year, with Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets growing by 22.9%, and mainland China by 16.9% [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry in Hong Kong and Macau surged from HKD 13,300 to HKD 20,100, marking a 51% increase [1] - Same-store sales of gold jewelry also saw a significant increase of 43.2% during the same period [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - CICC's report indicates that despite high base effects in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, the company is actively promoting its Spring Festival marketing activities and has launched a new product line for the New Year [1] - Management anticipates same-store sales to achieve low to mid-single-digit year-on-year growth during the Spring Festival period [1] - Based on the company's strong sales performance, CICC has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook by 6% to HKD 17.85, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) experienced a significant stock price increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 14.41, following the announcement of strong retail performance for the third quarter ending December last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The retail value for Chow Tai Fook grew by 17.8% year-on-year for the third quarter [1] - Retail performance in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets increased by 22.9%, while mainland China saw a growth of 16.9% [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry in Hong Kong and Macau surged from HKD 13,300 to HKD 20,100, marking a 51% increase [1] - Same-store sales of gold jewelry also rose significantly by 43.2% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - CICC reported that despite the high base effect in Q4 of FY2026, the company is actively promoting its Spring Festival marketing activities and launching a new product line for the New Year [1] - Management anticipates same-store sales during the Spring Festival to achieve low to mid-single-digit year-on-year growth [1] - CICC has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook by 6% to HKD 17.85, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [5] Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a significant increase in retail value for FY2026Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, indicating a strong acceleration compared to Q2. Retail values in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 16.9%, 22.9%, and other respective figures [1] - The company is actively optimizing its product and channel strategies, with a focus on enhancing store performance and e-commerce growth. The same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4% for direct stores and 26.3% for franchise stores [1][2] - The e-commerce segment saw a robust growth of 25.3%, driven by promotional events and successful IP collaborations, contributing to 7.4% of mainland retail value and 17.0% of sales volume [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026, Chow Tai Fook is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.8% to HKD 93.03 billion, with a net profit growth of 28.1% to HKD 7.575 billion. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is HKD 0.77 [2][4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.575 billion, HKD 8.559 billion, and HKD 9.646 billion, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for FY2026 [2][4] - The average selling price of gold jewelry in mainland China increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 51% for priced gold jewelry and 83% for standard gold jewelry, positively impacting sales [1][8] Market Expansion - Chow Tai Fook is pursuing global expansion, with notable performance in Macau, where same-store sales grew by 31.3%. The company is also optimizing its store network in mature markets while entering new potential markets [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Chow Tai Fook's retail value for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (October to December 2025) increased by 18% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 21% and 26% in mainland China for direct and wholesale channels, respectively, and 14% in the Hong Kong and Macau markets [1] Group 1 - Chow Tai Fook is actively promoting marketing activities for the Spring Festival and has launched a new product line for the New Year, with management expecting same-store sales to achieve low single-digit year-on-year growth during the Spring Festival period [1] - CICC has raised its earnings per share forecast for Chow Tai Fook for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 3% to HKD 0.90 and HKD 0.96, respectively [1] - The target price for Chow Tai Fook has been increased by 6% to HKD 17.85, corresponding to a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio for fiscal year 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [5] Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a significant acceleration in retail value growth for FY2026Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Retail values in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 16.9%, 22.9%, and 14.3% respectively, indicating an improving jewelry consumption atmosphere [1][2] - The company is actively optimizing its product and channel strategies, with a focus on enhancing store performance and expanding e-commerce. The same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4% for direct stores and 26.3% for franchise stores, benefiting from strong e-commerce growth [1][2] - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce business saw a retail value increase of 25.3%, accounting for 7.4% of mainland retail value and 17.0% of sales volume, driven by successful promotional events and IP collaborations [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026, Chow Tai Fook is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.8% to HKD 93.03 billion and a net profit growth of 28.1% to HKD 7.575 billion. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is HKD 0.77, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times [2][4] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth of 4% in FY2026, with net profit expected to reach HKD 8.559 billion in FY2027 and HKD 9.646 billion in FY2028 [2][4] Market Expansion - Chow Tai Fook is pursuing global expansion, focusing on optimizing channels in mature markets while gradually entering new markets with growth potential. The company reported a 22.9% increase in retail value in Hong Kong, with Macau showing a remarkable growth of 31.3% [2][4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月22日 周大福（01929.HK） 销售增长进一步加速，定价首饰占比提升利好毛利率 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 事项： 公司公告：公司发布 2025 年 10-12 月未经审核的主要经营数据，整体零售值同比增长 17.8%，环比 7-9 月 4.1%的增长加速 13.7pct。其中中国内地市场零售值增长 16.9%，中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场零售值 增 ...