Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook is a leading brand in the gold and jewelry industry with a rich history, established in 1929 and listed in Hong Kong in 2011. The company is the largest gold jewelry brand in China, with a total of 5,813 stores as of the end of FY26Q3 [7][8]. - The company has shown significant improvement in overall performance, with a retail revenue growth of 18% year-on-year in FY26Q3, driven by strong sales in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau [14][18]. - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on product upgrades and enhancing brand value, which has led to a notable increase in the proportion of fixed-price products in sales [9][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 89.66 billion and a net profit of HKD 5.92 billion, with projections for FY2026-2028 showing revenue growth of 5.14%, 5.27%, and 6.03% respectively [1][24]. - The gross profit margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 30.5% in FY26H1, while the net profit margin remains stable at around 6.5% [20][24]. Store Operations - The company is in a store closure cycle, having reduced its total number of stores by 228 in FY26Q3, while still maintaining strong same-store sales growth, particularly in mainland China [7][18]. - The same-store sales growth in mainland China for FY26Q1, Q2, and Q3 were -3.3%, +7.6%, and +21.4% respectively, indicating a positive trend [18]. Product Strategy - The proportion of fixed-price products has significantly increased, with retail value growth of 59.6% year-on-year for these products in FY26Q3, contributing to 40.1% of total sales [9][24]. - The company is focusing on high-end positioning by closing underperforming stores in lower-tier markets and opening new concept stores in higher-tier cities [14][24].

业绩表现超预期，定价首饰占比提升强化盈利韧性 [Table_Title] 【广发批零社服&海外】周大福 （01929.HK） [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位Finance] :港元百万元 | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,150 | 101,463 | 108,211 | | 增长率（ ） | % | 14.8% | -17.5% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | | EBITDA | | 11,535 | 10,499 | 13,212 | 15,441 | 16,688 | | 归母净利润 | | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,161 | 9,803 | 10,716 | | 增长率（ ） | % | 20.7% | -9.0% | 38.0% | 20.1% | 9.3% | | EPS（元/股） | | 0.65 | 0.59 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook has demonstrated a strong recovery in FY2026 Q3, with significant growth in retail value and same-store sales across various markets, driven by product optimization and high-margin offerings [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The group reported a retail value (RSV) growth of 17.8% year-on-year, with mainland China showing a 16.9% increase [1]. - Same-store sales (SSSG) for direct and franchise stores increased by 21.4% and 26.3%, respectively [1]. - Retail value in Hong Kong and overseas markets grew by 22.9%, with same-store sales increasing by 14.3% [1]. - Hong Kong's same-store sales rose by 10.1%, while Macau's saw a remarkable increase of 31.3% [1]. Group 2: Product and Pricing Strategy - The company is shifting its product structure towards high-margin jewelry, with same-store retail value for priced jewelry in mainland China growing by 13.7%, contributing 40% to total sales, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The IP cultural series continues to perform strongly, with diamond and jadeite businesses returning to positive growth [1]. - Average selling prices have significantly increased, with the average price of gold in mainland China rising to HKD 11,000 (up 50.7% year-on-year) and priced gold reaching HKD 9,500 (up 82.6% year-on-year) [1]. Group 3: Channel and Market Expansion - By the end of 2025, the total number of "Chow Tai Fook Jewelry" stores reached 5,585, with a net reduction of 230 stores in mainland China, indicating a nearing end to structural contraction [2]. - E-commerce in mainland China grew by 25% in FY2026 Q3, accounting for 7.4% of mainland RSV, driven by marketing events like Double Eleven [2]. - The tourism retail segment has also contributed positively, particularly with duty-free gold in Hainan attracting many consumers due to its high cost-performance ratio [2]. - The Southeast Asian market has been operational for six years, contributing 15.2% to the group's retail value, with significant growth in same-store sales in Singapore and Malaysia [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 91.93 billion, 96.58 billion, and 101.67 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with net profits of CNY 8.53 billion, 9.53 billion, and 10.64 billion [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 15.0, 13.4, and 12.0 times for the respective years [2].

国际现货黄金价格再攀新高。1月28日，伦敦金现再次大涨，突破5200美元/盎司，并在下午一度突破 5300美元/盎司。与此同时，国内黄金珠宝首饰企业们足金饰品价格也都涨到了1600元/克的新高度，像 老凤祥足金饰品已经达到1620元/克。然而，黄金高涨并没有浇灭消费者买金热情，1月28日下午4点 多，记者实地走访北京王府井附近金店发现，像周大福、周大生、潮宏基等门店皆有顾客光顾，且店员 也对记者表示，"这段时间黄金首饰产品卖的挺好的。" 过去两年中，现货黄金价格持续上涨，一度给周大福等以按克计价产品为主的金饰企业带来业绩压力。 随着金价上涨逐渐常态化，如何实现可持续经营成为金饰企业面临的核心挑战。为此，行业主要企业也 积极启动了一系列变革。 黄金再创新高 黄金价格延续上行态势，屡创新高，1月28日，COMEX黄金每盎司站到了5250美元的新高点，伦敦金 现同样连创新高，并在下午一度突破5300美元/盎司。 对于金价连创新高，知名战略定位专家、福建华策品牌定位咨询创始人詹军豪接受《华夏时报》记者采 访时表示，近期黄金价格持续走高，核心是全球地缘局势不确定性增加，叠加市场对美联储降息的强烈 预期，各国央行增持黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several gold jewelry brands have announced price adjustments for domestic gold jewelry, with some prices remaining at historically high levels as of January 27 [1] Price Adjustments - Chow Sang Sang's domestic price for 24K gold jewelry is set at 1577 RMB per gram, an increase of 3 RMB from the previous day [1] - Lao Miao Gold's price in the Shanghai region is 1575 RMB per gram, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Luk Fook Jewelry's price for 24K gold is 1583 RMB per gram, rising by 7 RMB from the previous day [1] - Chow Tai Fook's prices for 24K gold (jewelry and crafts) and other brands like Xie Rui Lin and Chao Hong Ji are set at 1585 RMB per gram, also an increase of 7 RMB [1] - China Gold's price for 24K gold jewelry remains at 1586 RMB per gram, unchanged from the previous day [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expectations of significant stock price appreciation over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong recovery in Q3 FY2026, with retail sales value (RSV) increasing by 17.8% year-on-year, and same-store sales (SSSG) for direct and franchise stores rising by 21.4% and 26.3% respectively [1][2]. - The product mix is shifting towards high-margin jewelry, with same-store retail value for high-priced jewelry in mainland China growing by 13.7%, contributing 40% to total sales, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, contributing 15.2% to total retail value, with plans for further expansion in Vancouver and Sydney [3]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - In Q3 FY2026, the company achieved a retail sales value of 17.8% year-on-year growth, with mainland China up 16.9% and same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau growing by 10.1% and 31.3% respectively [1]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on high-margin products, with the average selling price of gold jewelry in mainland China rising to HKD 11,000, a 50.7% increase year-on-year, and high-priced gold jewelry averaging HKD 9,500, an 82.6% increase [2]. Channel Optimization - The total number of stores reached 5,585 by the end of 2025, with a net closure of 230 stores in mainland China, indicating a structural adjustment nearing completion [2]. - E-commerce sales in mainland China grew by 25% in Q3 FY2026, accounting for 7.4% of RSV, driven by marketing events like Double Eleven [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 91.93 billion, 96.58 billion, and 101.67 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with net profits of 8.53 billion, 9.53 billion, and 10.64 billion yuan [3][4].

Group 1 - The international gold price is reported at $4986.5 per ounce, while international palladium is at $2001.7 per ounce, and international silver is at $103.21 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold price is reported at ¥1124.0 per gram [1] Group 2 - Major domestic gold retailers have varying prices, with Chow Tai Fook at ¥1553 per gram being the highest, and Caibai Jewelry at ¥1498 per gram being the lowest [1] - Other notable prices include: Chow Sang Sang at ¥1551 per gram, and several brands including Liufu Jewelry, Xie Rui Lin, Jin Zun, Chao Hong Ji, Lao Miao, and Lao Feng Xiang all priced at ¥1553 per gram, while China Gold is at ¥1498 per gram, and Zhou Liu Fu at ¥1541 per gram [1]

Company Performance - The company reported a retail value growth of 18% year-on-year for 3QFY26, exceeding management expectations [1] - In mainland China, retail value increased by 17%, with same-store sales for direct and wholesale channels growing by 21% and 26% respectively [1] - The Hong Kong and Macau markets saw same-store sales growth of 10% and 31%, respectively, with a net opening of 3 stores during the quarter [1] Retail Insights - The performance of retail in mainland China was driven by strong demand and price increase expectations, particularly in October [2] - The retail value and same-store sales for priced jewelry in mainland China grew by 60% and 53% respectively, with sales contribution rising by 11 percentage points to 40% [2] - In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, retail value for priced jewelry decreased, while gold jewelry saw significant growth [2] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the upcoming quarter, planning to launch new products for the Spring Festival and expecting same-store sales growth in the low single digits [2] - The full-year guidance has been raised, with revenue growth expected in the low single digits and gross margin projected to improve to 31.5%-32.5% [2] - The company has adjusted its FY26/27 EPS forecast upwards by 3% to HKD 0.90 and HKD 0.96, respectively, maintaining an outperform rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for FY2026 Q3 increased by 17.8% year-on-year, showing significant acceleration compared to Q2, with notable improvements in consumer sentiment in jewelry [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Retail value in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 16.9%, 22.9%, and other regions respectively, indicating a positive trend in jewelry consumption [1] - Same-store sales in Mainland China saw a strong increase, with direct same-store sales up by 21.4% and franchise same-store sales up by 26.3% year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry in Mainland China rose significantly, with prices increasing from 7,300 HKD to 11,000 HKD (up 51%) and from 5,200 HKD to 9,500 HKD (up 83%) year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product and Brand Strategy - The company is enhancing its product structure and brand strength, with the launch of the "Chow Tai Fook Chuan Fu" series, leading to a 59.6% year-on-year increase in retail value of priced jewelry, which now accounts for 40.1% of Mainland retail value [2] - E-commerce sales grew by 25.3% year-on-year, driven by promotional events and successful IP collaborations, contributing to 7.4% of retail value and 17.0% of sales volume in Mainland China [2] Group 3: Market Expansion - Retail value in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets increased by 22.9%, with same-store sales growth of 14.3%, including 10.1% in Hong Kong and 31.3% in Macau, indicating strong growth momentum in Macau [2] - The company is actively pursuing global expansion, optimizing channels in mature markets while entering new potential markets [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company expects FY2026 revenue growth of 4% and a 28% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, projecting revenue of 93.027 billion HKD and net profit of 7.575 billion HKD [3] - Profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are 75.75 billion HKD, 85.59 billion HKD, and 96.46 billion HKD respectively, with a PE ratio of 18 times for FY2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in retail value for Q4 2025, with an overall year-on-year growth of 17.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.1%, indicating a strong acceleration in performance [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail value in the mainland China market grew by 16.9%, while the retail value in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets increased by 22.9% [1] - Same-store sales in mainland China for direct-operated stores grew by 21.4%, accelerating by 13.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter; franchise stores saw a same-store sales growth of 26.3%, accelerating by 17.7 percentage points [1] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales increased by 14.3%, with an acceleration of 8.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Group 2: Product Structure and Store Management - High-margin priced jewelry continues to lead growth, with retail value in mainland China for this category increasing by 59.6%, contributing 40.1% to total retail value, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing single-store efficiency, resulting in a net closure of 228 stores during the quarter, bringing the total number of stores to 5,813 [1] - It is anticipated that the rate of store closures will narrow by FY 2027, with overseas market expansion expected to contribute additional growth [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is leveraging product innovation and channel optimization to capitalize on the growth of priced gold jewelry, which is a key driver of same-store growth [2] - The company plans to continue investing in research and design to strengthen its high-margin priced product offerings and optimize store structures to boost single-store sales [2] - The forecast for net profit for FY 2026-2028 has been revised upwards to HKD 86.37 billion, 96.46 billion, and 105.59 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.7, 14, and 12.8 times, maintaining an "outperform" rating [2]