Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer with a target price of HKD 33.69 based on a projected 19 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][10][6]. Core Views - The current consumption recovery has led to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025. The expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be CNY 1.62, CNY 1.75, and CNY 1.86 respectively, down from the previous forecast of CNY 2.18 for 2025 [4][10]. - The "Su Chao" phenomenon is significantly stimulating beer demand, particularly benefiting China Resources Beer as a market leader in Jiangsu province. The report highlights a nearly 90% month-on-month increase in beer transaction volume in Jiangsu since the start of the "Su Chao" event [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue strong growth in mid-to-high-end products, with Heineken brand sales increasing by 20% in the first five months of the year [9][10]. - The diversification of sales channels, particularly through instant retail partnerships, is seen as a key growth driver for the company [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2023 is CNY 38,932 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to CNY 38,635 million, followed by a recovery to CNY 39,835 million in 2025 [5][13]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 4,427 million in 2023 to CNY 6,232 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.96% [5][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be CNY 5,153 million in 2023, with a slight decline in 2024 to CNY 4,739 million, before recovering to CNY 5,255 million in 2025 [5][13]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 41.36% in 2023 to 44.86% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][13].

摘要 华润啤酒通过积极去库存和品牌推广（如欧冠和 F1 赞助）策略，头五 个月销量增长超过 20%，但渠道库存管理对销量的带动效果不如前几年 显著。同时，公司关注夜场、餐饮、新兴渠道和超市的全渠道投放，并 与有影响力的酒吧和连锁 live house 合作推广新品。 高端化发展策略需转型，从过去的新品促销转向注重品牌价值、多元化、 个性化和差异化。公司需深入了解消费趋势，快速响应市场需求，以保 持竞争优势，避免过度依赖简单促销导致价格压力。 尽管市场环境复杂，包括价格压力和社会贬值等因素，华润啤酒认为仍 存在发展机会。公司通过提供多元化、个性化和差异化的产品，以及全 渠道投放和紧跟消费趋势变化，来适应市场变化并保持增长势头。 今年啤酒销量有所增长，销售单价略有提升，但幅度有限。低端产品组 合改变对销售单价的提升效果较小。公司关注主要竞争对手，并利用收 购合并地方品牌带来的小众化、差异化优势，推动各区域高端化发展。 受益于去年下半年开始使用的较便宜的澳大利亚大麦和稳定的包装材料 成本，华润啤酒的毛利率有所改善。公司通过产品组合优化提升成本效 益，目标是全年销量持平或略微低个位数增长，售价单价也实现低个位 数增长 ...

Group 1: Beer Business - The company is focusing on high-end product strategies and cost optimization, with plans to close two inefficient factories in 2024, aiming to reduce sales expense ratio by 0.97 percentage points and management expense ratio by 1.75 percentage points [1] - Despite a projected 2.5% decline in beer sales in 2024 due to weak dining and weather impacts, high-end product sales have increased by over 9%, with Heineken brand growth nearing 20% and other brands like Snow and Red爵 doubling in sales [1] - The beer business gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 41.1%, supported by low prices for barley and glass, which continue to provide cost benefits [1] Group 2: Baijiu Business - The baijiu segment is focusing on the "summary" big product strategy, with a 35% year-on-year increase in summary product sales in 2024, contributing over 70% to baijiu revenue [2] - The company plans to enhance its core market focus in 2025, particularly in Henan and Shandong, optimizing channel inventory and controlling inefficient investments to accelerate national expansion of the summary product [2] - Short-term challenges include a slowdown in sales recovery post-Chinese New Year and potential impacts from alcohol bans on certain government and enterprise channels, but long-term growth prospects remain strong [2] Group 3: 2025 Performance Outlook - The beer sales outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by higher temperatures and lower rainfall, which are expected to boost consumption, alongside new production capacity in Fujian [3] - The company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies are expected to enhance beer gross margin to over 42% in 2025, supported by an 8% year-on-year decline in beer spot costs [3] - The company is also enhancing channel collaboration and digital supply chain optimization, with online business GMV growth exceeding 30% year-on-year and inventory turnover reduced to under 45 days [3]

研究报告 Research Report 16 Jun 2025 华润啤酒 China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) 业绩修复明确，估值具备吸引力 Clear earnings recovery with attractive valuation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$24.90 目标价 HK$35.60 HTI ESG 2.6-2.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$80.78bn / US$10.29bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$70.62mn 发行股票数目 3,244mn 自由流通股 (%) 48% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$35.85-HK$22.10 注：现价 HK$24.90 为 2025 年 06 月 13 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth ...

金十数据6月16日讯，建银国际发表报告，将华润啤酒(00291.HK)目标价由34港元，调低1.2%至33.6港 元，投资评级维持"跑赢大市"。建银国际将2025财年盈利预测下调4%，主要原因是白酒销售成长弱于 预期。基于啤酒业务2025财年10倍企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润倍数和白酒业务2025财年10倍市盈率 的不变，该行将目标价从34港元下调至33.6港元。鉴于喜力啤酒需求强劲，建银国际预计华润啤酒将考 虑扩大其在福建的喜力啤酒产能。尽管如此，尽管拟议增加资本支出，但该行相信，在稳健的经营现金 流的支持下，该公司将继续提高其股息支付率至约60%（目前为52%）。 建银国际削华润啤酒目标价1.2%至33.6港元 ...

资本支出（Capex）：鉴于喜力销售强劲，公司计划在福建扩充喜力产能。2025年还计划继续在维护、生 产线转型以及白酒业务方面进行投资。预计未来资本支出将逐步减少。基准情形采用现金流折现法，假设加权 平均资本成本（WACC）为11.3%（由3%无风险利率、9.1%风险溢价得出），终端增长率为3%。 风险提示：上行风险：喜力市场份额增长快于预期；雪花产品成功高端化；原材料价格下降。 下行风险：行业需求持续疲软；家庭消费渠道市场竞争加剧；原材料价格上涨。 华润啤酒(00291):维持"买入"评级,目标价34港元 摩根士丹利发布称，华润啤酒（00291）在4-5月实现销量正增长，与2025年1-5月的销售趋势一致，公司 仍受益于原材料方面的有利因素，助力毛利率提升超1个百分点，同时通过"三精"举措进一步降低运营成 本，维持"买入"评级，目标价34港元。管理层预计，由于需求疲软且基数较高，今年白酒业务收入仍将面临 压力，公司会努力避免亏损和减值。 润啤业绩如下：按产品（年初至今）：1）喜力持续强劲，销量同比增长超20%；2）超级X年初至今销量同 比增长约10%；3）老雪和阿姆斯特尔销量同比增长超50%；4）雪花纯生销 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that China Resources Beer (00291) achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point. The company is focused on cost reduction through its "Three Precision" initiatives and maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 34. Management anticipates pressure on liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1][2]. Summary by Category Sales Performance - Heineken continues to show strong performance with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have surged by over 50% - Snowflake Pure Life sales have experienced a slight decline in single digits [2] Regional Insights - The company highlights strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around Shenzhen - It is expected that East China and South China will be key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [2] Channel Performance - Management notes that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [2] Capital Expenditure - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - Continued investments are planned for maintenance, production line transformation, and liquor business in 2025 - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease, with a baseline scenario using discounted cash flow method assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

2 June 2025 | 10:23PM HKT China Resources Beer (0291.HK): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: Continued solid performance in May led by Heineken; Thoughts on We hosted CR Beer at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on Jun 2. Key takeaways: 1) Key metrics' run-rate in May: CRB's beer volume growth in May trended at similar run-rate as in April, i.e above the volume growth of SD% in 1Q25; The blended ASP mildly increased and margin profiles performed positively towards full year target; 2) By brand, the key vo ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period in 2024, with intensified market competition and frequent personnel changes, prompting companies to view "reform" as a key driver for exploring new growth points to meet challenges and seize opportunities [2]. Company Overview - Huaren Beer Chairman Hou Xiaohai has reduced his shareholding in the company twice in May, cashing out over 26 million HKD, which has sparked market speculation [4][6]. - Hou Xiaohai has been with Huaren Beer for 24 years and previously led the company to become the top-selling beer brand in China with the "Brave the World" strategy [4][7]. - The company has invested over 10 billion CNY in acquiring several liquor companies, including Jingzhi Liquor, Jinzongzi Liquor, and Jinsha Liquor, positioning Hou as a key player in the liquor sector [4][10]. Strategic Developments - In the final year of the "3+3+3" strategy, Hou Xiaohai aims for liquor revenue to exceed 10 billion CNY and profits to reach 2 billion CNY, indicating a need for substantial breakthroughs in the "beer and liquor dual empowerment" strategy [5][14]. - The "3+3+3" strategy has led to significant improvements in Huaren Beer’s financials, with gross profit margin rising from 33.71% to 42.36% and revenue increasing from 28.694 billion CNY to 38.635 billion CNY from 2016 to 2024 [8]. Liquor Business Performance - The liquor business currently has a scale of over 4 billion CNY, with a target to exceed 10 billion CNY in the future [17]. - In 2024, the liquor business generated revenue of 2.149 billion CNY, with a slight increase in EBITDA to 807 million CNY [12]. - The other two acquired companies, Jinzongzi and Jingzhi, have faced challenges, with Jinzongzi's revenue declining by 37.04% to 925 million CNY and continuing losses [13]. Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage its capital advantages and nationwide channel capabilities to enhance brand structure and expand nationally, focusing on market promotion and product pricing control [19]. - Experts believe that achieving the 10 billion CNY revenue target will require optimizing product structures and increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [20].

Core Insights - The Chinese beer industry reached a turning point by 2016, with a shift towards premium, experiential, and craft beers driven by younger consumers, particularly Generation Z [1][3] - China Resources Beer, the largest beer brewer in China, faces significant challenges due to changing market dynamics, operational inefficiencies, and a weak presence in the premium segment [3][4] - The newly appointed CEO, Hou Xiaohai, initiated a transformative "3+3+3" strategy in 2017 to address core challenges and build long-term competitiveness [4][12] Group 1: Organizational and Cultural Restructuring - China Resources Beer recognized the need to improve operational efficiency and reshape corporate culture before pursuing further growth [5] - The company streamlined its operations by reducing the number of breweries from 98 to 63 and cutting its workforce from 58,200 to 25,000 while increasing salaries by 47% to retain talent [5][6] - A cultural transformation project was implemented, impacting over 26,000 employees, embedding a new philosophy into performance evaluations and daily operations [5][12] Group 2: Brand Innovation and High-End Focus - Following structural reforms, the company shifted focus to brand innovation and premiumization, launching a comprehensive brand revitalization under the banner "We made for young" [6] - Significant investments in influencer marketing and events helped revitalize the SuperX brand, doubling its sales and affirming the company's ability to attract younger consumers [6][8] - A "4+4" brand matrix was introduced, integrating four domestic brands with international ones to cater to diverse consumer needs and strengthen market position [8][10] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion - In 2018, a strategic partnership with Heineken was established, granting exclusive distribution rights for Heineken products in China and enhancing China Resources Beer's position in the premium segment [7][12] - The partnership led to a significant increase in Heineken's market share in China, with sales reaching 600,000 tons by 2023, quadrupling since the partnership began [7][12] - The company also ventured into the high-profit white liquor market by establishing a subsidiary and acquiring stakes in well-known liquor producers [10][11] Group 4: Results and Future Outlook - By 2024, the strategic transformation yielded measurable results, with total revenue increasing by 22.85% and net profit soaring by 126.3% [12] - The company achieved a significant increase in high-end beer sales, with premium brands experiencing growth rates of 35% [12] - As the company enters the final phase of the "3+3+3" strategy, a new "three precision management" model is introduced to enhance competitive advantage and profitability [12][14]