If you want full access to all our reports, data and investing ideas, join The Aerospace Forum , the #1 aerospace, defense and airline investment research service on Seeking Alpha, with access to evoX Data Analytics, our in-house developed data analytics platform.Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO ) reported Q3 2025 earnings that beat Wall Street estimates on revenues and earnings per share. I used to own a small number of shares in Cisco, and the stock had done wellDhierin runs the investing group The Aeros ...

Core Viewpoint - Cisco is expected to report earnings of $0.92 per share and revenue of $14.05 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 5% and 11% respectively [1][4]. Financial Performance - Cisco's total return rate has declined by approximately 500 basis points relative to the S&P 500 index over the past 25 years [4]. - The company has made positive revisions to its earnings per share forecasts for FY 2025 and FY 2026, with estimates showing an average annual growth rate of 3% in revenue since 2010 [10][11]. - The revenue estimates for FY 2025 and FY 2026 have also been revised upwards, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7]. Strategic Moves - Cisco acquired Splunk for $28 billion, which is seen as a strategic entry into the cybersecurity market, a rapidly growing sector in technology [4]. - The integration of Splunk is expected to take at least eight quarters, and it is anticipated that security revenue will increase from 6-7% to 15% of total revenue [9]. Market Position - Cisco's stock price has not approached its historical high of $82 since April 2000, and the company has faced challenges in delivering substantial shareholder value through numerous smaller acquisitions [8]. - The company has lagged behind the S&P 500 index, with a modest increase of 10% in stock price from July 2015 to May 2025, trailing by only 105 basis points [8]. Future Outlook - The key question remains whether Splunk will yield meaningful results for Cisco, as the company transitions from a hardware-centric model to potentially a software-oriented one [9][10]. - Cisco's average earnings growth rate has been 7% per year, but significant revenue growth is needed for the stock to regain market relevance [11].

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.44%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.65%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.83% [1] - Pre-market trading shows a broad decline in prominent tech stocks, including Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, each down approximately 1%, and Tesla down about 2% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are also mostly down in pre-market trading, with JD.com down around 3%, NIO down nearly 2%, Pinduoduo down over 1.3%, and Alibaba and Xpeng down about 1% [1] Company Performance - Cisco Systems saw a pre-market increase of nearly 4%, reporting Q3 FY2025 revenue of $14.1 billion, an 11% year-over-year growth [1] - CoreWeave, a cloud services startup backed by Nvidia, experienced a pre-market drop of nearly 10% due to profit decline linked to accelerated AI investment plans [1] - Gaotu reported a pre-market increase of over 10%, with Q1 FY2025 revenue reaching 1.493 billion yuan, a 57.7% year-over-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of approximately 140 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 9.2% [1] - NetEase saw a pre-market rise of nearly 4%, with Q1 FY2025 revenue of $28.8 billion, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations [1] Regulatory Environment - Tesla's stock is down approximately 3% in pre-market trading, potentially ending a six-day winning streak, as U.S. regulators intensify scrutiny of its Robotaxi plan, with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration sending a list of questions as part of an ongoing investigation into Tesla's Full Self-Driving software [2]

During this presentation references to financial measures of Cisco will include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Cisco provides a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information on the Cisco Investor Relations website https://investor.cisco.com/financial-information/financial- results/default.aspx © 2025 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2 Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Conference Call May 14, 2025 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains project ...

Core Viewpoint - Cisco is experiencing a significant resurgence in performance and stock price due to the increasing demand for network hardware systems driven by breakthrough artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in data center infrastructure [1][4]. Financial Performance - Cisco's management expects sales for the quarter ending July 31 to reach between $14.5 billion and $14.7 billion, exceeding Wall Street's average estimate of $14.5 billion [2]. - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Cisco reported a year-over-year sales increase of 11% to $14.1 billion, aligning with Wall Street's expectations [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter rose to $0.96, surpassing the average analyst estimate of $0.92 and the previous year's $0.88 [2]. Demand Drivers - Cisco's product orders increased by 20% year-over-year, with new orders growing by 9% when excluding contributions from Splunk [2]. - AI infrastructure hardware orders from large-scale customers exceeded $600 million, surpassing the management's target of $1 billion a quarter ahead of schedule [2][4]. Strategic Partnerships - Cisco has strengthened its collaboration with Nvidia to optimize data center interconnectivity and develop integrated solutions that support AI training and inference [8]. - The partnership aims to provide high-performance network infrastructure that meets the growing demands of AI workloads, enhancing Cisco's competitive position in the market [8]. Market Outlook - Despite economic uncertainties and tariff impacts, Cisco's management remains confident in sustained AI spending and infrastructure investments from clients [3][11]. - The company is also expanding its offerings in network security and remote management tools, contributing to recurring revenue growth [4][7]. Executive Changes - Cisco announced a leadership change with Scott Herren stepping down as CFO, to be succeeded by Mark Patterson, while Jeetu Patel has been appointed as President and Chief Product Officer [9]. Global AI Infrastructure - The ongoing AI boom is driving demand for high-performance network devices, with Cisco positioned as a key supplier in this space [7][10]. - The company is also exploring opportunities in Saudi Arabia through a partnership with Humain, which aims to significantly invest in AI infrastructure [11].

Group 1 - The visit of US President Trump to Saudi Arabia resulted in a historic $600 billion deal, with a significant focus on AI infrastructure involving major tech companies like Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Google, Cisco, and Oracle [1] - Nvidia plans to sell hundreds of thousands of AI chips over the next five years, starting with 18,000 GB300 Grace Blackwell chips for Saudi Arabia's newly established AI startup, Humain [2] - AMD has signed a $10 billion agreement with Humain to provide chips and software, aiming to build an AI data center network extending from Saudi Arabia to the US [2] Group 2 - Amazon will invest over $5 billion to create an AI zone in Saudi Arabia, utilizing AWS technology to develop an AI agent platform for the Saudi government [2] - Cisco is collaborating with Humain to build infrastructure and has expanded its partnership with Abu Dhabi AI company G42 [3] - A $100 million AI fund has been established by Saudi Arabia's STV, supported by Google, to target emerging startups in the Middle East and North Africa [3]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced mixed results with the Dow down by 60 points (-0.14%), S&P 500 up by 4 points (+0.07%), Nasdaq gaining 112 points (+0.59%), and Russell 2000 down by 15 points (-0.74%) [1] Bond Market - Bond yields have increased over the past two weeks, with the 10-year yield at 4.54% and the 2-year yield at 4.06%, up from 4.06% and 3.62% respectively [2] Earnings Results - Cisco Systems reported earnings of $0.96 per share, beating expectations by $0.05, with revenues of $14.1 billion slightly above the expected $14.06 billion. The company raised guidance for the next quarter and full year, resulting in a 3.8% increase in shares [3] - Cisco's acquisition of Splunk for $28 billion has contributed to a product growth of 20%, while growth without Splunk was only 9% [4] - CoreWeave reported a loss of $1.40 per share against an expectation of -$0.18, but revenues of $981.63 million exceeded the consensus of $850.38 million [4] Upcoming Economic Reports - A series of economic reports are expected, including Retail Sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), Empire State and Philly Fed surveys, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, and Homebuilder Confidence [5] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Earnings reports are anticipated from Walmart, Alibaba, Deere & Co., and Birkenstock, with challenges noted in forward guidance during the Q1 earnings season [6]

Core Insights - Cisco Systems reported revenue of $14.15 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, reflecting an 11.4% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +0.65% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.06 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) was $0.96, up from $0.88 in the same quarter last year, with a surprise of +5.49% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.91 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Product revenue reached $10.37 billion, exceeding the six-analyst average estimate of $10.08 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of +15% [4] - Service revenue was reported at $3.78 billion, slightly below the $3.82 billion average estimate, with a year-over-year change of +2.6% [4] - Security product revenue was $2.01 billion, lower than the estimated $2.21 billion, but showed a significant year-over-year increase of +54.4% [4] - Observability product revenue was $261 million, compared to the average estimate of $276.09 million [4] - Networking product revenue was $7.07 billion, surpassing the estimated $6.76 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +8.4% [4] - Collaboration product revenue was $1.03 billion, exceeding the five-analyst average estimate of $1 billion, representing a year-over-year change of +4.5% [4] Gross Margin Performance - Non-GAAP gross margin for services was $2.69 billion, slightly below the estimated $2.72 billion [4] - Non-GAAP gross margin for products was $7.01 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.66 billion [4] Stock Performance - Cisco shares have returned +8% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +9.9% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Cisco Systems reported quarterly earnings of $0.96 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.91 per share, and up from $0.88 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 5.49% [1] - The company posted revenues of $14.15 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.65%, and an increase from year-ago revenues of $12.7 billion [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Cisco shares have increased approximately 4.4% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 0.1% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.96 on revenues of $14.54 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.73 on revenues of $56.44 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Computer - Networking industry, to which Cisco belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges in outperforming the market [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3, total revenue was $14.1 billion, up 11% year over year [25] - Non-GAAP net income was $3.8 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $0.96 [25] - Total product revenue increased to $10.4 billion, up 15%, while services revenue rose to $3.8 billion, up 3% [25] - Total annual recurring revenue (ARR) ended at $30.6 billion, a 5% increase, with subscription revenue up 15% to $7.9 billion, representing 56% of total revenue [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Networking revenue grew 8%, driven by double-digit growth in switching and enterprise routing, but offset by a decline in servers [26] - Security revenue surged 54%, primarily due to growth in Splunk and SASE offerings [26] - Collaboration revenue increased by 4%, while observability revenue rose by 24% [26] - Product orders were up 20% year over year, with a 9% increase when excluding Splunk [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In geographic segments, The Americas saw a 27% increase, EMEA was up 4%, and APJC grew by 21% [27] - In customer markets, Service Provider and Cloud orders increased by 32%, Enterprise orders were up 22%, and Public Sector orders rose by 8% [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Cisco is focusing on AI infrastructure, with over $600 million in AI infrastructure orders from web scale customers in Q3, surpassing the fiscal year target a quarter early [6][11] - The company is expanding partnerships, including a significant collaboration with NVIDIA to enhance AI deployment capabilities [12][14] - Cisco is investing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a strategic technology partner for AI infrastructure, aligning with the country's Vision 2030 [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that customer purchasing behavior remains strong despite macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly in AI transitions [36] - The company anticipates continued growth in AI orders, with a focus on executing and increasing capacity to meet demand [84] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth opportunities in AI and cloud infrastructure, expecting sustained investment from customers [50][51] Other Important Information - Cisco returned $3.1 billion to shareholders in Q3 through dividends and share repurchases [7] - The company announced the retirement of CFO Scott Herren at the end of fiscal year 2025, with Mark Patterson set to take over [20][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of customer buying behavior given the uncertainty with tariffs? - Management indicated no significant changes in purchasing behavior, with customers still committed to technology transitions [36][37] Question: Can you elaborate on the public sector performance? - Public sector orders were up 8%, with double-digit growth in U.S. Federal orders, despite challenges in the civilian sector [45][46] Question: Is 2025 expected to be a peak year for cloud CapEx? - Management believes that global cloud CapEx will continue to grow, with significant opportunities in enterprise AI [49][51] Question: Can you provide insights on the $600 million AI orders? - The $600 million in AI orders was not from the new Saudi AI company, but management expects substantial future opportunities in that region [56][58] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on guidance for Q4? - Management has built in expectations for tariffs in the Q4 guidance, reflecting potential impacts on gross margins [96]