证券研究报告 | 2025年08月22日 深信服（300454.SZ） 优于大市 单 Q2 实现盈利，云业务增长 26% 单 Q2 实现利润转正。公司 25H1 收入 30.09 亿元（+11.16%），归母净利润 -2.28 亿元，亏损收窄约 61.54%；扣非归母净利润-2.59 亿元，亏损收窄 60.44%。单 Q2 来看，公司收入 17.47 亿元（+4.50%），归母净利润 0.22 亿 元，扣非归母净利润 0.03 亿元，均实现转正。单 Q2 实现盈利转正，公司经 营充分调整到位。Q2 收入增速短期放缓，不改全年持续复苏趋势。 毛利率有所提升，现金流依然优异。公司上半年毛利率为 62.09%，同比提升 0.75 个百分点，尤其云计算业务毛利率提升 3.46 个百分点。公司三费整体 同比减少 6.81%，尤其管理和研发费用下降较大。公司 25H1 现金流入 41.01 亿元（+4.32%），经营活动现金流净额为-2.35 亿元（去年同期为-9.77 亿 元），公司加强供应链管理，上半年策略性备货金额同比减少，购买商品、 接受劳务支付的现金同比少支出 4.32 亿元 云计算仍是收入增长主要动力，政府业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cisco is expected to report earnings of $0.92 per share and revenue of $14.05 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 5% and 11% respectively [1][4]. Financial Performance - Cisco's total return rate has declined by approximately 500 basis points relative to the S&P 500 index over the past 25 years [4]. - The company has made positive revisions to its earnings per share forecasts for FY 2025 and FY 2026, with estimates showing an average annual growth rate of 3% in revenue since 2010 [10][11]. - The revenue estimates for FY 2025 and FY 2026 have also been revised upwards, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7]. Strategic Moves - Cisco acquired Splunk for $28 billion, which is seen as a strategic entry into the cybersecurity market, a rapidly growing sector in technology [4]. - The integration of Splunk is expected to take at least eight quarters, and it is anticipated that security revenue will increase from 6-7% to 15% of total revenue [9]. Market Position - Cisco's stock price has not approached its historical high of $82 since April 2000, and the company has faced challenges in delivering substantial shareholder value through numerous smaller acquisitions [8]. - The company has lagged behind the S&P 500 index, with a modest increase of 10% in stock price from July 2015 to May 2025, trailing by only 105 basis points [8]. Future Outlook - The key question remains whether Splunk will yield meaningful results for Cisco, as the company transitions from a hardware-centric model to potentially a software-oriented one [9][10]. - Cisco's average earnings growth rate has been 7% per year, but significant revenue growth is needed for the stock to regain market relevance [11].