If you have found my strategies interesting, useful, or profitable, consider supporting my continued research by joining the Cyclical Investor's Club . It's only $400/month, and it's where I share my latest research and exclusive small-and-midcap ideas. Two-week trials are free.Learning how to cut through the noise and look toward the medium-term future is an important skill for investors. One of the few areas in which individual investors can have an advantage over Wall Street traders isCory leads the inve ...

Deckers (DECK) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Shares of this maker of Ugg footwear have returned -8.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -3.9% change. The Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which Deckers belongs, has lost 8.9% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?While media ...

Decker's Outdoor will be hit by tariffs, but will it hurt the company's bottom line?Tariffs are the talk of the market and companies like Deckers Outdoor (DECK 13.59%) will see an impact from higher costs. However, the company's flexible supply chain and strong brands may give it a leg up over the competition.*Stock prices used were end-of-day prices of April 8, 2025. The video was published on April 9, 2025. ...

After a record-breaking rally in 2024 when shares of Deckers Outdoor (DECK -4.19%) soared by 82%, the stock slammed into a brick wall in early 2025 and is now down 53% from its 52-week high as of this writing. Here are three reasons Deckers Outdoor could be a great portfolio buy now. 1. A phenomenal growth story Deckers Outdoor is best known for its footwear brands, including the iconic Ugg sheepskin boots and high- performance Hoka running and athletic shoes. The latter has been a game changer for the comp ...

Company Performance - Deckers (DECK) closed at $106.13, with a slight increase of +0.1% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.23% [1] - Over the past month, Deckers' shares have declined by 16.34%, which is worse than the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 11.71% and the S&P 500's loss of 12.13% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings disclosure for Deckers is anticipated, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.55, representing a 33.73% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $992.79 million, indicating a growth of 3.44% compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Deckers are crucial as they reflect changing business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Deckers currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with a track record of superior performance, where 1 stocks have averaged an annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - The Forward P/E ratio for Deckers is 16.07, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 12.51, and the PEG ratio stands at 1.06, compared to the industry average of 1.22 [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 168, placing it in the bottom 33% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Performance - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 25.9% over the past month, which is worse than the Zacks Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry's decline of 7.9% and the S&P 500's decline of 3.3% [1][4] - The stock closed at $100.88, nearly 55% below its 52-week high of $223.98 reached on January 30, 2025, and is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment [6][9] Revenue and Growth Challenges - The decline in DECK's stock price is attributed to slowing growth and increased competition in the footwear and accessories market, with revenue deceleration due to inventory constraints affecting key brands like UGG [4][13] - Management anticipates a 13.2% decline in UGG sales in the fourth quarter, contrasting with a 16.1% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, leading to an expected overall sales growth deceleration to 1% in the fourth quarter from 17.1% in the third quarter [14][16] Cost and Margin Pressures - SG&A expenses rose 24.9% year-over-year to $535.3 million in the fiscal third quarter, driven by increased marketing spend and an expanded workforce, which is expected to pressure the company's operating margin [17] - Increased markdowns and promotional activities, particularly for HOKA, along with higher freight costs and foreign exchange pressures, are anticipated to further impact profitability [16][17] Valuation Metrics - DECK is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 3.09, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.45 and the sector average of 1.50, indicating strong investor confidence but also heightening valuation risk [9][10] - Compared to peers, Boot Barn has a forward P/S of 1.56, Skechers at 0.73, and Adidas at 1.35, highlighting DECK's premium positioning [10] Long-term Growth Potential - Deckers is focusing on brand portfolio reinforcement through innovative product launches and optimized distribution strategies, with management guiding for a 15% year-over-year revenue growth to $4.9 billion for fiscal 2025 [18][19] - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in high-potential markets like China, which is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth [21] Direct-to-Consumer Segment - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment is a key growth driver, with DTC net sales increasing 17.9% to $1.01 billion in the fiscal third quarter, supported by strong digital performance and the expansion of flagship retail locations [22] - Enhanced omnichannel capabilities and loyalty initiatives are fueling customer acquisition and brand loyalty, positioning the company for sustained success [22]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index is down approximately 5% at the start of 2025, indicating investor concerns about the economy [1] - Stocks are experiencing a significant decline, reflecting broader economic worries [1] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor is the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500, down 46% [3] - The company reported a 17% revenue growth in Q4 2024, with net sales of $1.8 billion, but analysts were not satisfied with its guidance projecting 15% growth for the current year [3][4] - The stock was previously trading at over 35 times its trailing earnings but has since dropped to about 18 times [4] - Economic uncertainties, including trade wars and tariffs, pose risks to Deckers' business, and there is potential for guidance cuts [5] Group 3: Tesla - Tesla is the second worst-performing stock, down 38%, facing challenges due to questionable growth prospects and controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk [6] - The company's automotive revenue fell by 8% in Q4, totaling $19.8 billion, with profits declining by 71% year over year to $2.3 billion [7] - Tesla's stock is trading at over 90 times its estimated future earnings, indicating it remains highly expensive with potential for further decline [8] Group 4: On Semiconductor - On Semiconductor is the third worst-performing stock, down 36%, primarily affected by economic headwinds in the automotive sector [9] - The company reported sales of $7.1 billion in 2024, a 14% decline year over year, suggesting a challenging recovery ahead [10] - On Semiconductor trades at a relatively modest valuation of 16 times next year's estimated earnings, presenting a potential long-term buying opportunity [10][11] - The long-term growth prospects for semiconductor companies are significant, with On Semiconductor's stock at multiyear lows, indicating potential for future recovery [11]

Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor Corporation, founded in 1973 and headquartered in Goleta, California, is a leading designer, producer, and brand manager of innovative footwear and accessories for outdoor sports and lifestyle activities [12] - The company markets products primarily under four proprietary brands: UGG, HOKA, Teva, and other brands, mainly Koolaburra [12] Investment Ratings - Deckers is currently rated as a 3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A, indicating a solid overall performance [12] - The company is considered a top pick for growth investors due to its strong Growth Style Score of A, forecasting a year-over-year earnings growth of 21% for the current fiscal year [13] Earnings Estimates - In the last 60 days, three analysts have revised their earnings estimates higher for fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by $0.07 to $5.88 per share [13] - Deckers has an average earnings surprise of 36.8%, showcasing its ability to exceed earnings expectations [13]

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is maintaining a strong growth trajectory, backed by the continued success of its UGG and HOKA brands, international expansion efforts and a heightened focus on direct-to- consumer (DTC) sales. The company's strong brand equity and tight inventory controls continue to support solid demand and healthy profit margins. A major contributor to Deckers' performance is the rapid growth of its DTC business. This channel allows the company to maintain tighter control over its brand ...

Group 1 - The author expresses a strong interest in a particular stock, indicating it has been added to their watchlist for potential future investment [1] - The author has extensive experience in investment advising and fund management, having been active in the field since the 1980s [1] - The focus of the author's current efforts is on a new investing group dedicated to navigating the modern investment climate with a unique approach to income investing [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in DECK shares, indicating confidence in the stock's performance [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by any business relationships with companies mentioned [2] - There is a disclaimer regarding the nature of the article, emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results [3]