Core Insights - Deckers Outdoors Corporation (DECK) reported a significant growth in its UGG brand, with net sales increasing by 10.1% year over year to $759.6 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026, outpacing the company's overall net sales growth of 9.1% [1][9] Group 1: UGG Brand Performance - UGG's international markets were crucial for growth, collectively increasing by 38% year over year, which helped mitigate slower performance in the U.S. market [2] - The quarterly growth of UGG was primarily driven by a 17% increase in wholesale, supported by strong demand from retail partners and early European shipments, although there was a 10% decline in direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales due to higher wholesale stock levels and a challenging U.S. consumer environment [3] - UGG's global revenue rose by 12% in the first half of the fiscal year, fueled by key brand initiatives, strong international growth, and successful new product launches, including the Mel franchise, which saw significant sales increases [4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a cautious consumer environment in the second half of the fiscal year due to pricing and tariff impacts, projecting low-to mid-single-digit percentage growth for UGG in fiscal 2026, indicating steady brand momentum [5] - Despite competitive pressures from companies like American Eagle and Boot Barn, UGG's international momentum and strong wholesale demand position it as a key growth driver for Deckers [6][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - American Eagle Outfitters reported a 6% increase in total net revenue to $1.36 billion in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with a gross profit rise of 5% year over year, although gross margin faced slight pressure [6] - Boot Barn Holdings achieved an 18.7% net sales growth year over year to $505.4 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026, with gross profit increasing to 36.4% of net sales, driven by higher sales volumes and improved merchandise margins [7] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Deckers shares have increased by 1.9% over the past six months, compared to a 17.6% rise in the industry, with a current Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [8] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for DECK is 15.67, which is lower than the industry average of 18.07 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings growth of 1.1% for the current fiscal year and 6.3% for the next fiscal year [11]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation, with a market cap of $15.1 billion, is a global footwear and apparel company known for brands like UGG and HOKA, focusing on casual lifestyle and high-performance products [1] Financial Performance - Analysts predict Deckers to report an EPS of $2.76 for fiscal Q3 2026, an 8% decline from $3 in the same quarter last year, although the company has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the past four quarters [2] - For fiscal 2026, the expected EPS is $6.41, reflecting a 1.3% increase from $6.33 in fiscal 2024, with further growth anticipated to $6.80 in fiscal 2027, a 6.1% year-over-year increase [3] Stock Performance - Deckers Outdoor shares have decreased by 49.9% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 16.9% gain and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's 5.2% return [4] - Following the Q2 2026 results announcement, shares fell by 15.2% due to a weaker-than-expected outlook, with management forecasting full-year sales of approximately $5.35 billion, which is below analysts' consensus [5] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus rating for DECK stock is "Moderate Buy," with 25 analysts covering the stock: nine recommend "Strong Buy," one "Moderate Buy," 13 "Hold," and two "Strong Sell." The average price target is $109.91, indicating a potential upside of nearly 6% from current levels [6]

The Christmas season is over, but that doesn't the US consumer is ready to fade. UBS analyst Jay Sole recently released his top apparel stock picks for the coming year, predicting growth ahead for retailers that cater toward a wide variety of consumers, ranging from Ralph Lauren to less upscale names such as TJX Companies and Burlington Stores."We see few Softline companies missing consensus 4Q EPS expectations," Sole said. "This, plus the prospect of US fiscal stimulus starting to drive Softline industry ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the overall revenue growth of overseas sports footwear and apparel companies slightly declined compared to Q2 2025, with a mixed performance in gross margins and an increase in most companies' SG&A expenses [5][12] - Brands focusing on niche segments like running and outdoor activities, such as ANTA, ASICS, and Deckers Outdoor, maintained high revenue growth rates, with ANTA growing by 34.5%, ASICS by 20.4%, and Deckers by 8.3% [12][13] - Most overseas sports footwear and apparel companies continued to show positive revenue growth, with notable performances from Skechers [12] - Revenue growth rates varied by region, with North America, Europe, and Greater China showing different trends; Europe had the best performance in Q3 2025 [5][20] - The apparel category showed stronger resilience in sales compared to footwear in Q3 2025 [5][25] Summary by Sections Section 1: Revenue Growth and Margin Performance - In Q3 2025, the revenue growth of overseas sports footwear companies decreased slightly compared to Q2 2025, with most companies experiencing an increase in SG&A expenses [5][12] - The revenue growth rates for major brands in Q3 2025 included Adidas at 8%, Lululemon at 7.1%, and ASICS at 20.4% [13][18] Section 2: Inventory Levels - Most overseas sports footwear companies saw an increase in inventory turnover ratios in Q3 2025, but overall inventory levels remained manageable [5][12] Section 3: Revenue Guidance for Fiscal Year 2025 - Compared to 2024, many companies have lowered their revenue growth guidance for the current fiscal year, although brands like Adidas, ANTA, and Lululemon have raised their full-year guidance for 2025 [5][18] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Despite the slight decline in revenue growth and rising inventory turnover ratios, the long-term outlook for the sports footwear industry remains positive, driven by upcoming major sporting events and a recovery in order placements [5][18]

Group 1 - Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) stock reached a two-year low in early November after a 15.2% decline following its earnings report on October 24 [1] - The stock has rebounded to its pre-earnings close but is facing resistance at the 200-day moving average and is considered "overbought" with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 72.3 [1] - Short positions have decreased by nearly half from August to October, yet the stock has not shown significant upward movement, indicating technical weakness [2] Group 2 - Short interest is increasing again, suggesting that there may be more activity in shorting rallies [2] - A recommended put option has a leverage ratio of 3.8, which would double with a 22.4% drop in the underlying equity [2]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoors Corporation (DECK) has shown strong brand performance, particularly with its HOKA brand, which has driven recent quarterly results [1] Sales Performance - In Q2 of fiscal 2026, HOKA's net sales increased by 11.1% year over year, reaching $634.1 million compared to $570.9 million in the same period last year [1][9] - Overall net sales growth for Deckers was 9.1% [1] - HOKA's wholesale channel saw a 13% year-over-year increase, while Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales grew by 8% [2][9] Growth Drivers - HOKA's revenue rose by 15% in the first half of the fiscal year, driven by its main road running franchises: Clifton, Bondi, and Arahi [3] - The brand's growth was further supported by expanded trail offerings through the Mafate franchise [3] - Strong sell-through rates and positive consumer response to product enhancements indicate ongoing demand for HOKA's innovative product lineup [3][5] International Performance - HOKA performed well across all international regions, with significant revenue growth in EMEA and China [4] - In EMEA, the brand achieved strong results supported by market share gains and robust reorder activity from specialty partners [4] Future Outlook - Despite anticipating a cautious consumer environment in the second half due to pricing and tariff impacts, HOKA's innovative product pipeline and international strength are expected to sustain its growth [5] - Deckers expects HOKA to be a key growth driver in fiscal 2026, with revenue projected to rise at a low-teens rate [5] Competitive Landscape - American Eagle Outfitters reported a 6% increase in net revenue to $1.36 billion in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with a gross profit rise of 5% [6] - Boot Barn Holdings posted an 18.7% year-over-year net sales growth to $505.4 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026, with gross profit increasing to 36.4% of net sales [7] Valuation Metrics - Deckers trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.07, which is lower than the industry average of 18.06 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers' earnings implies year-over-year growth of 1.1% for the current fiscal year and 6.3% for the next [12]

Company Performance - Deckers (DECK) closed at $101.91, with a +2.45% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.64% [1] - The stock has risen by 16.84% in the past month, leading the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 4.11% and the S&P 500's gain of 3% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Deckers is expected to report EPS of $2.76, down 8% from the prior-year quarter, with a revenue forecast of $1.87 billion, indicating a 2.27% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $6.41 per share and revenue at $5.36 billion, representing changes of +1.26% and +7.57% from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates and Valuation - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Deckers reflect near-term business trends, with positive alterations indicating analyst optimism [3] - Deckers currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 15.53, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 20.06 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 4.49, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.14 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 60, placing it in the top 25% of over 250 industries [8] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to achieve another double-digit percentage gain in 2025, with the S&P 500 index showing a year-to-date gain of 16.81% as of December 5, despite significant declines in several individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Worst-Performing Stocks - Fiserv (FISV) has seen a decline of approximately 70%, attributed to a drastic cut in its full-year revenue forecast and slowing growth in its merchant-services segment [3]. - The Trade Desk (TTD) is down approximately 67%, facing decreased revenues due to competition from major players like Amazon, leading investors to view the stock as overvalued [4]. - Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has dropped around 57%, with slowing growth expectations and pressure on discretionary consumer spending impacting its well-known brands, UGG and Hoka [5]. - Gartner (IT) is down approximately 52%, with its valuation at $17 billion, facing cyclical pressure as companies reduce spending on advisory services during economic uncertainty [6].

Group 1 - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) is facing skepticism regarding its recent stock rebound, with a suggestion that its momentum is not strong [1] - The company is compared unfavorably to Nike, which is recommended as a better investment opportunity for the next five years [1] - Deckers sells footwear, apparel, and accessories under various brands including UGG, HOKA, Teva, Koolaburra, and AHNU [2] Group 2 - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk compared to Deckers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes the latest analyst ratings from Wall Street, highlighting significant upgrades, downgrades, and new coverage that could impact market sentiment and investment decisions [1][6]. Upgrades - Oppenheimer upgraded General Electric Energy (GEV) from "Hold" to "Outperform," setting a target price of $855, citing improved pricing and sales, along with enhanced factory utilization and operational efficiency [5]. - JPMorgan raised PepsiCo (PEP) from "Neutral" to "Overweight," increasing the target price from $151 to $164, due to the company's accelerated innovation and marketing spending [5]. - HSBC upgraded AbbVie (ABBV) from "Hold" to "Buy," with a target price increase from $225 to $265, noting the company's growth momentum and strong execution capabilities [5]. - Morgan Stanley raised Terex (TEX) from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight," with a target price increase from $47 to $60, as the company's performance has rebounded and its business mix has improved [5]. - Oppenheimer upgraded Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) from "Hold" to "Outperform," significantly raising the target price from $11 to $40, highlighting the stock's undervaluation compared to its competitor Avidity [5]. Downgrades - HSBC downgraded Biogen (BIIB) from "Hold" to "Reduce," with a slight target price decrease from $144 to $143, citing the poor performance of its multiple sclerosis business [5]. - Jefferies lowered Emerson Electric (EMR) from "Buy" to "Hold," maintaining a target price of $145, indicating limited short-term upside due to the company's recent performance outlook [5]. - JPMorgan downgraded Noble Energy (NE) from "Overweight" to "Neutral," raising the target price from $31 to $33, while expressing caution about upstream capital expenditures [5]. - Jefferies downgraded Rexnord (RRX) from "Buy" to "Hold," reducing the target price from $170 to $160, noting that the company's transformation plan is taking longer than expected [5]. - Jefferies lowered Vail Resorts (VLTO) from "Buy" to "Hold," with a target price decrease from $125 to $105, stating that the current stock price reflects the company's stable demand and strong returns [5]. New Coverage - Guggenheim initiated coverage on Amazon (AMZN) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $300, suggesting that the retail sector is showing signs of improvement despite previous concerns [9]. - B. Riley initiated coverage on Roblox (RBLX) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $125, highlighting the company's strong long-term fundamentals [13]. - Cowen initiated coverage on Sensata Technologies (IOT) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $55, believing the company's platform aligns well with the $45 trillion "physical operations" industry [13]. - B. Riley initiated coverage on Take-Two (TTWO) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $300, driven by the anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in November 2026 [13]. - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce initiated coverage on Shark Ninja (SN) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $135, viewing the company as a "category disruptor" [13].