Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's international segment is a key growth driver, significantly outpacing domestic growth in the first half of fiscal 2026, reflecting strong demand for HOKA and UGG brands globally [1][5] International Growth Strategy - The company employs a balanced channel strategy, with wholesale as the primary entry point in new markets and direct-to-consumer (DTC) enhancing long-term customer engagement, aiming for a 50:50 mix between wholesale and DTC [2] - International wholesale expansion has been more pronounced than in the U.S., indicating stronger brand momentum abroad [2] Regional Performance - In EMEA, HOKA achieved double-digit growth in multiple countries during Q2 of fiscal 2026, supported by strong sell-through with specialty retailers and increased market share [3] - China presents a significant opportunity, driven by premium positioning and innovation, with strong full-price selling and expanding loyalty membership, particularly among younger and female consumers [4] Future Outlook - Deckers anticipates that international markets will continue to outpace U.S. growth in fiscal 2026, contributing to a long-term revenue target of $5.35 billion, supported by disciplined distribution and strong brand equity [5] Valuation and Performance - Deckers shares have decreased by 2.9% over the past three months, while the industry has grown by 9.9% [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.38X, slightly below the industry's average of 16.11X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current fiscal-year earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 1.3%, with an expected uptick of 7.3% for the next fiscal year [11]

Group 1 - Deckers Brands will hold a conference call to review its third quarter fiscal 2026 results on January 29, 2026, at approximately 4:30 pm Eastern Time [1] - The conference call will be broadcasted on the company's investor relations website and will be available for at least 30 days following the call [1] Group 2 - Deckers Brands is a global leader in designing, marketing, and distributing innovative footwear, apparel, and accessories [2] - The company's portfolio includes well-known brands such as UGG®, HOKA®, and Teva® [2] - Deckers Brands products are sold in over 50 countries and territories through various retail channels, including department stores, specialty stores, and online platforms [2] - The company has over 50 years of experience in building niche footwear brands into lifestyle market leaders, attracting millions of loyal consumers globally [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The report highlights a positive outlook for the textile manufacturing sector as tariff impacts are easing, leading to improved export conditions. The demand side shows a mixed performance in global apparel retail, with domestic recovery being weak while overseas apparel demand remains stable. The export decline has narrowed following progress in US-China trade negotiations, and manufacturing orders are expected to improve in 2026 due to a healthy inventory level among downstream brand clients [3][6][13]. - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which has a lower exposure to the US market and is expected to see marginal improvements from major clients, and Huayi Group, which is experiencing strong growth from new clients and is ramping up production capacity [3][21][29]. Group 2: Sportswear Sector - The domestic sportswear market is showing signs of weak recovery, with high-end brands like Li Ning and Tebu International demonstrating resilience. The report anticipates a recovery in 2026 driven by macroeconomic improvements and policy catalysts, particularly with the upcoming Olympic events [3][6][19]. - Internationally, high-end sports brands are experiencing differentiated growth dynamics. ON is maintaining a strong brand image and expanding in the Asia-Pacific market, while Amer Sports is benefiting from its multi-brand strategy. However, brands like Lululemon and Deckers are facing short-term pressures in the North American market [3][6][19]. Group 3: Luxury Goods Sector - The luxury goods market in China is showing signs of gradual recovery, driven by wealth effects from the capital market and stabilization in the real estate market. Sales from luxury groups like LVMH and Richemont have improved significantly in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in the luxury sector [3][7]. - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior, with a loss of "aspirational consumers" and an increase in the importance of top-tier customers. This shift is leading to a focus on value, experience, and cost-effectiveness in luxury consumption, which is benefiting local high-end brands [4][7].

Industry Overview - The outdoor industry encompasses recreation, wellness, and lifestyle experiences focused on nature and activities away from home, including outdoor gear, apparel, recreational vehicles, and related services [2] - The industry is experiencing steady demand driven by shifting consumer values towards health, sustainability, and experience-driven living, appealing to various age groups and regions [3] Company Highlights Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) - Deckers Outdoor is experiencing strong momentum, particularly from its HOKA and UGG brands, with HOKA expected to grow in the low-teens percentage range and UGG in the low-to-mid single digits, each projected to exceed $2.5 billion in annual sales [7] - The company anticipates year-over-year increases of 13.1% for HOKA and 4.7% for UGG in fiscal 2026, supported by international expansion and operational efficiency [8] - DECK has an expected revenue growth rate of 7.7% and earnings growth rate of 1.3% for the current year [8] Planet Fitness Inc. (PLNT) - Planet Fitness is benefiting from solid franchise growth, with 35 new club openings in Q3 2025, bringing the total to 2,795 locations [11] - The company focuses on digital transformation to enhance member engagement and operational efficiency, with an expected revenue growth rate of 11.1% and earnings growth rate of 17.1% for the current year [12] Pool Corp. (POOL) - Pool Corp. is likely to benefit from steady maintenance demand and healthy remodeling activity, bolstered by its market-leading position and enhanced digital capabilities through the POOL360 platform [13][14] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 3.4% and earnings growth rate of 6.6% for the current year [15] YETI Holdings Inc. (YETI) - YETI designs and markets products for outdoor activities, targeting various categories such as hunting, fishing, and camping [16] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 4.7% and earnings growth rate of 14.1% for the current year [17]

Group 1 - Hoka's exclusive distributor in South Korea, Joyworks&Co, faced a scandal after its representative, Zhao Chenghuan, admitted to assaulting outsourced workers, leading to his resignation [2][4] - The incident involved Zhao calling the outsourced workers to a secluded location, where he was recorded verbally abusing and physically assaulting them, resulting in serious injuries [2] - Negative public sentiment has emerged in South Korea, with calls for a boycott of Hoka products and widespread criticism of the brand due to the actions of its representative [4] Group 2 - Hoka's parent company, Deckers, responded swiftly by terminating its contract with Joyworks, emphasizing a zero-tolerance policy towards violence and the need for high ethical standards among partners [6] - Despite the controversy, Hoka has experienced significant growth in South Korea, with Joyworks reporting a 34% year-on-year increase in sales from January to October 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers (DECK) is showing potential as a strong investment opportunity due to its recent technical indicators and positive earnings revisions [1][4]. Technical Analysis - DECK has recently reached a key level of support and has overtaken the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1]. - The 20-day simple moving average is a popular trading tool that helps smooth out short-term price trends and signals trend reversals [2]. Performance Metrics - Over the past four weeks, DECK has gained 5.9%, reflecting positive momentum in its stock price [4]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting further potential for stock price increases [4]. Earnings Estimates - There has been one upward revision in DECK's earnings estimates for the current fiscal year, with no downward revisions, indicating strong investor confidence [4]. - The consensus estimate for DECK has also moved upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook [4]. Investment Consideration - Given the positive technical indicators and earnings estimate revisions, DECK should be considered for inclusion on investors' watchlists [5].

Core Viewpoint - Deckers (DECK) is showing potential as a strong investment opportunity due to its recent technical performance and positive earnings estimate revisions [1][3]. Technical Analysis - DECK has crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a long-term bullish trend [1]. - The stock has rallied 5.9% over the past four weeks, suggesting upward momentum [2]. - The 200-day simple moving average serves as a key support level, which traders and analysts use to assess long-term market trends [2]. Earnings Estimates - There has been one upward revision in DECK's earnings estimates for the current fiscal year, with no downward revisions [3]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has also increased, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the company [3]. - The combination of positive technical indicators and favorable earnings revisions suggests that DECK may experience further gains in the near future [3].

Group 1 - Deckers Outdoor Corporation, known for brands like UGG, HOKA, and Teva, has faced significant challenges, with a stock decline of 49% in 2025, making it the fourth worst performer in its category [1] - The company's growth driver, HOKA, has experienced a slowdown over the past few quarters, raising concerns about its future performance [1] - Despite the current stock trading at approximately 16 times this year's earnings estimates, there is skepticism about its recovery, as attempts to invest have often resulted in losses for investors [1] Group 2 - Deckers sells footwear, apparel, and accessories for both casual and high-performance use under various brands, including UGG, HOKA, Teva, Koolaburra, and AHNU [2]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor's stock has faced downgrades from analysts, raising concerns about its growth and profitability despite strong cash flow and low valuation metrics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Downgrades - Baird downgraded Deckers to neutral, citing concerns about the company's growth not being sufficient to support its near-term valuation [2]. - Piper Sandler downgraded Deckers to "underperform," highlighting risks associated with discounting strategies that may harm profit margins and customer relationships [3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Deckers' current stock price is $104.03, with a market capitalization of $16 billion and a gross margin of 56.14% [4]. - The stock is trading at approximately 16 times earnings, with a free cash flow of $980 million, which supports over 96% of reported net income [4]. - The enterprise value to free cash flow ratio is less than 15 times, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [4]. Group 3: Growth Potential - If Deckers can achieve a 15% annual earnings growth, it may present a buying opportunity for investors [5].