Investment Performance - Greenlight Capital's Partnership returned 9.0% (net) in 2025, compared to 17.9% for the S&P 500 index, and 8.5% in Q4 versus 2.7% for the index [1] - Since its inception in May 1996, the Partnership has returned $6.1 billion, net of fees and expenses, to its investors [1] Company Overview: Deckers Outdoor Corporation - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) operates footwear, apparel, and accessories brands, including Hoka and UGG [2][3] - As of January 28, 2026, DECK stock closed at $97.62 per share, with a market capitalization of $14.481 billion [2] Stock Performance and Challenges - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's stock experienced a one-month return of -5.85% and a 52-week decline of 56.25% [2] - The stock decline was attributed to disappointing results early in 2025, influenced by tariff uncertainty, a warehouse transition in Europe, and warm weather affecting UGG sales [3] Future Outlook - Greenlight Capital expects growth to re-accelerate for Deckers as Hoka expands internationally and anticipates the company will utilize its strong balance sheet, with net cash equal to roughly 9% of its market capitalization, to increase stock repurchases [3] - Greenlight Capital acquired DECK shares at an average price of $85.49, with the stock ending the quarter at $103.67 [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Deckers Outdoor Corporation was held by 62 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3, an increase from 59 in the previous quarter [4] - Despite acknowledging Deckers' potential, Greenlight Capital suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation is preparing to release its quarterly earnings on January 29, 2026, with expectations of a slight revenue increase despite a projected decline in earnings per share (EPS) [1][2][3]. Financial Projections - Analysts project Deckers' EPS to be $2.72, while Zacks Investment Research anticipates a slightly higher EPS of $2.77, despite a year-over-year decline of 7.7% [2][6]. - Revenue is expected to reach approximately $1.87 billion, marking a 2.6% increase from the same quarter last year [3][6]. Financial Metrics - Deckers' financial metrics include a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.25 and a price-to-sales ratio of 2.76 [4][6]. - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 2.56, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 12.57, indicating the company's valuation and profitability [4]. - The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, reflecting a low level of debt compared to equity, and a current ratio of 3.07, suggesting strong liquidity [5]. Market Sentiment - The downward revision of the consensus EPS estimate by 0.2% over the past 30 days may signal potential investor actions and influence short-term stock performance [3]. - As the earnings report approaches, investors are keen to see if Deckers can exceed expectations and how this will affect its stock price [5].

Wall Street analysts expect Deckers (DECK) to post quarterly earnings of $2.77 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 7.7%. Revenues are expected to be $1.87 billion, up 2.6% from the year-ago quarter.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has undergone a downward revision of 0.2% in the past 30 days, bringing it to its present level. This represents how the covering analysts, as a whole, have reassessed their initial estimates during this timeframe.Prior to a comp ...

South Korean fashion and lifestyle company, Musinsa, is said to be currently in discussions to obtain the local distribution rights for Hoka, a well-known performance footwear brand. The talks are reportedly taking place with Deckers Outdoor Corporation, the American parent company of Hoka, as Musinsa seeks to handle the brand’s import and distribution within South Korea.Interest From Major Fashion GroupsMusinsa is not alone in its interest in the brand. Other notable fashion companies, such as Shinsegae In ...

Deep-pocketed investors have adopted a bearish approach towards Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK), and it's something market players shouldn't ignore. Our tracking of public options records at Benzinga unveiled this significant move today. The identity of these investors remains unknown, but such a substantial move in DECK usually suggests something big is about to happen.We gleaned this information from our observations today when Benzinga's options scanner highlighted 10 extraordinary options activities for Dec ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's international segment is a key growth driver, significantly outpacing domestic growth in the first half of fiscal 2026, reflecting strong demand for HOKA and UGG brands globally [1][5] International Growth Strategy - The company employs a balanced channel strategy, with wholesale as the primary entry point in new markets and direct-to-consumer (DTC) enhancing long-term customer engagement, aiming for a 50:50 mix between wholesale and DTC [2] - International wholesale expansion has been more pronounced than in the U.S., indicating stronger brand momentum abroad [2] Regional Performance - In EMEA, HOKA achieved double-digit growth in multiple countries during Q2 of fiscal 2026, supported by strong sell-through with specialty retailers and increased market share [3] - China presents a significant opportunity, driven by premium positioning and innovation, with strong full-price selling and expanding loyalty membership, particularly among younger and female consumers [4] Future Outlook - Deckers anticipates that international markets will continue to outpace U.S. growth in fiscal 2026, contributing to a long-term revenue target of $5.35 billion, supported by disciplined distribution and strong brand equity [5] Valuation and Performance - Deckers shares have decreased by 2.9% over the past three months, while the industry has grown by 9.9% [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.38X, slightly below the industry's average of 16.11X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current fiscal-year earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 1.3%, with an expected uptick of 7.3% for the next fiscal year [11]

GOLETA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Deckers Brands (NYSE:DECK), a global leader in designing, marketing and distributing innovative footwear, apparel and accessories, today announced that the Company's conference call to review third quarter fiscal 2026 results will be on Thursday, January 29, 2026 at approximately 4:30 pm Eastern Time. The broadcast will be hosted at ir.deckers.com. The broadcast will be available for at least 30 days following the conference call. About Deckers Brands Deckers Brands is a glo ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The report highlights a positive outlook for the textile manufacturing sector as tariff impacts are easing, leading to improved export conditions. The demand side shows a mixed performance in global apparel retail, with domestic recovery being weak while overseas apparel demand remains stable. The export decline has narrowed following progress in US-China trade negotiations, and manufacturing orders are expected to improve in 2026 due to a healthy inventory level among downstream brand clients [3][6][13]. - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which has a lower exposure to the US market and is expected to see marginal improvements from major clients, and Huayi Group, which is experiencing strong growth from new clients and is ramping up production capacity [3][21][29]. Group 2: Sportswear Sector - The domestic sportswear market is showing signs of weak recovery, with high-end brands like Li Ning and Tebu International demonstrating resilience. The report anticipates a recovery in 2026 driven by macroeconomic improvements and policy catalysts, particularly with the upcoming Olympic events [3][6][19]. - Internationally, high-end sports brands are experiencing differentiated growth dynamics. ON is maintaining a strong brand image and expanding in the Asia-Pacific market, while Amer Sports is benefiting from its multi-brand strategy. However, brands like Lululemon and Deckers are facing short-term pressures in the North American market [3][6][19]. Group 3: Luxury Goods Sector - The luxury goods market in China is showing signs of gradual recovery, driven by wealth effects from the capital market and stabilization in the real estate market. Sales from luxury groups like LVMH and Richemont have improved significantly in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in the luxury sector [3][7]. - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior, with a loss of "aspirational consumers" and an increase in the importance of top-tier customers. This shift is leading to a focus on value, experience, and cost-effectiveness in luxury consumption, which is benefiting local high-end brands [4][7].

Industry Overview - The outdoor industry encompasses recreation, wellness, and lifestyle experiences focused on nature and activities away from home, including outdoor gear, apparel, recreational vehicles, and related services [2] - The industry is experiencing steady demand driven by shifting consumer values towards health, sustainability, and experience-driven living, appealing to various age groups and regions [3] Company Highlights Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) - Deckers Outdoor is experiencing strong momentum, particularly from its HOKA and UGG brands, with HOKA expected to grow in the low-teens percentage range and UGG in the low-to-mid single digits, each projected to exceed $2.5 billion in annual sales [7] - The company anticipates year-over-year increases of 13.1% for HOKA and 4.7% for UGG in fiscal 2026, supported by international expansion and operational efficiency [8] - DECK has an expected revenue growth rate of 7.7% and earnings growth rate of 1.3% for the current year [8] Planet Fitness Inc. (PLNT) - Planet Fitness is benefiting from solid franchise growth, with 35 new club openings in Q3 2025, bringing the total to 2,795 locations [11] - The company focuses on digital transformation to enhance member engagement and operational efficiency, with an expected revenue growth rate of 11.1% and earnings growth rate of 17.1% for the current year [12] Pool Corp. (POOL) - Pool Corp. is likely to benefit from steady maintenance demand and healthy remodeling activity, bolstered by its market-leading position and enhanced digital capabilities through the POOL360 platform [13][14] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 3.4% and earnings growth rate of 6.6% for the current year [15] YETI Holdings Inc. (YETI) - YETI designs and markets products for outdoor activities, targeting various categories such as hunting, fishing, and camping [16] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 4.7% and earnings growth rate of 14.1% for the current year [17]