Core Insights - Deckers (DECK) stock closed at $101.21, up 1.51% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.35% [1] - Over the past month, Deckers shares have increased by 21.93%, contrasting with the Retail-Wholesale sector's decline of 1.73% [1] Financial Performance - Deckers is expected to report an EPS of $2.76, reflecting an 8% decrease from the same quarter last year, with anticipated revenue of $1.87 billion, a 2.27% increase year-over-year [2] - For the full year, earnings are forecasted at $6.41 per share and revenue at $5.36 billion, representing increases of 1.26% and 7.57% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Deckers are crucial, as they indicate short-term business trends and analyst optimism regarding profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Deckers at 3 (Hold), with a 0.16% increase in the EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6] Valuation Metrics - Deckers has a Forward P/E ratio of 15.56, which is lower than the industry average of 19.82, indicating a potential valuation discount [7] - The current PEG ratio for Deckers is 4.5, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.23, suggesting a higher anticipated earnings growth rate relative to its price [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 78, placing it in the top 32% of over 250 industries [8]

Group 1 - The stock of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has underperformed the S&P 500 index, experiencing a decline of approximately 25% since the sell thesis was issued in July [1] - The analysis emphasizes a focus on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to identify high-growth investment opportunities [1] - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, particularly interested in macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings [1]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation, based in Goleta, California, is a prominent designer and producer of niche footwear and accessories, with a market cap of $14.5 billion and brands including UGG, HOKA, Teva, Sanuk, and Koolaburra [1][2] Financial Performance - Despite a solid Q2 performance with a 9.1% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.4 billion, DECK stock fell 15.2% post-earnings release, indicating market disappointment [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) grew 14.5% year-over-year to $1.82, exceeding consensus estimates [5] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by a 13.4% increase in wholesale revenues, while direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenues declined by 80 basis points compared to the previous year [6] Stock Performance - DECK stock has experienced a significant decline of 55.5% from its all-time high of $223.98 on January 30, and a 50.9% drop year-to-date [3][4] - Over the past 52 weeks, DECK stock has decreased by 50.4%, contrasting with the S&P 500 Index's 16.8% increase [4] - The stock has consistently traded below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [4] Market Position - Deckers has underperformed compared to its peer, Skechers U.S.A., which saw a 6.1% decline in 2025 and a 3.8% drop over the past 52 weeks [7] - Among 25 analysts covering DECK stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with a mean price target of $110.62, suggesting an 11% upside potential from current levels [7]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has experienced a significant decline in stock value, dropping over 50% in the past year, indicating potential challenges in the footwear market [1] Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor is a footwear design and distribution company known for its prominent brands, including HOKA, UGG, and Teva [1] Stock Performance - The stock of Deckers Outdoor has decreased by more than 50% over the past year, suggesting a need for analysis regarding the factors contributing to this decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor has faced significant challenges in 2025, resulting in a 53% decline in stock value year-to-date, raising questions about its ability to recover in 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The primary challenge for Deckers in 2025 has been weakening consumer spending in the U.S., impacting not only Deckers but also other consumer discretionary companies like Lululemon and Nike [5]. - Revenue growth slowed to 9% year-over-year in the fiscal second quarter, with domestic sales increasing only 1.7%, while international sales grew by 29.3%, now accounting for over 40% of total revenue [6]. Group 2: Performance in New Markets - Growth in international markets, particularly in China and the EMEA region, is crucial for Deckers' long-term growth strategy, with the company opening its first store in Germany [9]. - Hoka has shown strong performance in major European markets, gaining market share and experiencing growth in the direct-to-consumer channel [10]. Group 3: Margin Strength - Deckers has historically maintained high gross margins, which improved from 55.9% to 56.2% despite disappointing second-quarter results, indicating effective management of product pricing [11]. Group 4: Valuation - Following a decline of over 50% in 2025, Deckers' stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, suggesting that significant weakness is already reflected in the stock price [13]. - If the valuation decreases further, it may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, assuming the company can stabilize its business [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report summarizes the Q3 2025 financial performance of overseas sports brands, highlighting sales performance, profitability, and inventory status, indicating a gradual improvement in overall performance [2][4] - Revenue performance among major footwear and apparel companies shows divergence, with some brands experiencing strong growth while others face challenges [5][6] - The outlook for the industry suggests a gradual recovery in demand and inventory replenishment, particularly for brands like Adidas and On, while Nike continues to face headwinds [8][36] Revenue Performance - Revenue growth varied significantly among companies in Q3 2025, with Adidas (+12%), On (+35%), and Amer Sports (+30%) showing strong growth, while Nike and VF both reported a decline of -1% [5][19] - The overall revenue performance in Q3 2025 improved compared to Q2, despite some brands continuing to face pressure [5][6] Guidance - The visibility for the full year has improved, with brands like UA restoring full-year guidance, indicating a positive trend despite expected performance divergence [6][26] - Strong growth trends are expected to continue for On and Amer Sports, while Nike and VF are projected to see declines but with signs of improvement [6][31] Inventory - The industry is entering a phase of inventory replenishment, with moderate recovery in demand observed in the U.S. and Europe, although challenges remain in certain markets [7][36] - U.S. apparel inventory levels are in a destocking phase, with wholesale inventory ratios declining since 2023, while retail inventory levels have stabilized [7][36] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to gradually transition into a replenishment phase, with demand showing signs of recovery, particularly in the U.S. apparel sector [8][36] - Brands like Adidas are actively seeking to replenish inventory for growth, while Nike continues to destock amid ongoing challenges [8][36]

Core Insights - Investors in the Retail - Apparel and Shoes sector should consider Gap (GAP) and Deckers (DECK) for potential value opportunities [1] Valuation Metrics - Gap has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a stronger earnings outlook compared to Deckers, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - Gap's forward P/E ratio is 11.61, while Deckers has a forward P/E of 12.98 [5] - Gap's PEG ratio is 2.76, compared to Deckers' PEG ratio of 3.75, suggesting Gap may be more undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth [5] - Gap's P/B ratio is 2.52, significantly lower than Deckers' P/B of 4.91, indicating a better valuation relative to book value [6] - These metrics contribute to Gap earning a Value grade of A, while Deckers received a Value grade of C [6] Investment Strategy - A combination of a strong Zacks Rank and favorable Value grade is suggested as an effective strategy for identifying value stocks [2] - Traditional figures and metrics are essential for value investors to assess whether a company is undervalued at its current share price [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has experienced significant stock declines despite reporting better-than-expected earnings, raising concerns among investors regarding future revenue guidance [2][3]. Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor Corporation is valued at a market cap of $12.1 billion and is known for its premium lifestyle and performance brands, including UGG, HOKA, Teva, Sanuk, and Koolaburra [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, DECK shares have declined by 56.7%, while the S&P 500 Index has gained 11%. Year-to-date, DECK is down 59.1%, compared to a 14% increase in the S&P 500 [2]. - DECK has also underperformed against the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), which has returned 4.8% over the past 52 weeks and 1.9% year-to-date [2]. Earnings Results - In Q2, DECK reported a revenue increase of 9.1% year-over-year to $1.4 billion and an EPS of $1.82, which grew 14.5% from the previous year, exceeding consensus estimates. However, shares fell 15.2% following the earnings report due to fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $5.35 billion being below analyst expectations [3]. Future Earnings Expectations - For the current fiscal year ending in March 2026, analysts expect DECK's EPS to grow 1.3% year-over-year to $6.41. The company has a strong earnings surprise history, exceeding consensus estimates in the last four quarters [4]. Analyst Ratings - Among 25 analysts covering DECK, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with 10 "Strong Buy," 1 "Moderate Buy," 12 "Hold," and 2 "Strong Sell" ratings [4]. - Recently, Stifel Financial Corp. upgraded DECK to "Buy" with a price target of $117, indicating a potential upside of 40.7%. The mean price target of $110.62 suggests a 33.1% premium from current levels, while the highest price target of $157 indicates an 88.9% potential upside [5].

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation is recognized as a highly profitable large-cap stock, with recent upgrades from Stifel indicating strong confidence in the company's future growth, particularly for the Hoka brand and favorable supply-demand dynamics for Ugg [1][3]. Financial Performance - In FQ2 2026, Deckers reported total revenue of $1.43 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase and exceeding expectations [2]. - Diluted EPS for the quarter increased by 14% year-over-year to $1.82, up from $1.59 [2]. - HOKA revenue grew by 11% and UGG revenue increased by 10% during FQ2, contributing to robust overall revenue growth [2]. Brand Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year, HOKA revenue rose by 15% and UGG revenue increased by 12%, driven by strong international market performance [3]. - HOKA benefited from successful product updates, while UGG experienced strong wholesale demand [3]. Market Challenges - The company acknowledged challenges in the US consumer market, particularly due to tariffs and price increases, which led to a 10% decline in UGG's direct-to-consumer sales during FQ2 [3]. - Deckers anticipates continued tariff headwinds into FY2027, indicating potential ongoing challenges in the market [3].

Core Insights - The author emphasizes the importance of identifying reasonably priced companies with steady long-term growth prospects and uncovering small- and mid-cap companies with potential for exponential growth through fundamental analysis [1]. Group 1: Author's Background and Experience - The author has 10 years of experience operating a boutique law firm focused on investment transactions and dispute resolution after 7 years as a corporate transactional lawyer at prestigious firms [1]. - The author holds an MBA and has a long-standing interest in value investing, which informs their analytical approach [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on the belief that educated individuals can outperform the market if they have the right temperament and understand basic accounting and financial principles [1].