Core Viewpoint - Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) are competing in the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, each with distinct strategies and brand portfolios, facing similar challenges such as weather-related sales volatility and changing consumer preferences [1][2]. Urban Outfitters (URBN) - URBN has shown consistent performance across its diverse brand portfolio, including Anthropologie and Free People, with effective inventory management and merchandising strategies leading to higher margins [3]. - The Comparable Retail segment reported net sales growth of 8.3% for Anthropologie and 8% for Free People in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [4]. - The Wholesale segment experienced strong growth, particularly driven by Free People's full-price selling strategy, while the Nuuly rental platform saw a 78.4% increase in net sales, achieving $13 million in operating profit for its first full year [5]. - URBN plans to open 58 new stores in fiscal 2026, focusing on high-productivity locations and aiming to expand FP Movement to 300 stores across North America [6]. - For fiscal 2026, URBN anticipates mid-single-digit sales growth, with positive retail comps expected at Free People and Anthropologie [7]. - Nuuly is projected to achieve double-digit revenue growth, supported by increasing subscriber numbers [8]. Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) - DECK is experiencing growth through its UGG and HOKA brands, with UGG leading in the premium lifestyle footwear market and HOKA growing in the high-performance segment [9]. - DECK expects a 15% year-over-year increase in fiscal 2025 net sales to $4.9 billion, with HOKA projected to grow by 24% and UGG by 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on innovation, with new product releases for HOKA and diversification of UGG's offerings beyond winter footwear [11]. - International expansion is a key strategy for DECK, particularly in high-potential markets like China [12]. - The direct-to-consumer segment has seen significant growth, supported by strong digital performance and an expanding retail presence [13]. - DECK faces near-term challenges, including inventory constraints and rising costs, which may impact fiscal performance [14]. Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates URBN's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS growth of 6.6% and 14.5%, respectively, while DECK's fiscal 2025 estimates suggest 15.4% sales growth and 21% EPS growth [15][16]. - Stock performance has diverged, with DECK shares declining 36.6% over the past six months, while URBN shares have increased by 42.8% [17]. - Valuation metrics show URBN's forward P/E at 10.61X, below its three-year median, while DECK's forward P/E is at 16.23X, also below its median [18]. - URBN is viewed as a more attractive investment opportunity due to its diversified growth strategies and favorable valuation compared to DECK, which is currently facing operational pressures [22][23].

The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Deckers (DECK) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.Deckers currently has an average b ...

Core Insights - Deckers (DECK) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak, particularly in the upcoming report, as it has a history of exceeding earnings estimates [1] - The company has achieved an average surprise of 22.86% over the last two quarters, indicating strong performance [1] Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Deckers posted earnings of $3 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.60 per share, resulting in a surprise of 15.38% [2] - For the previous quarter, the company exceeded expectations by reporting earnings of $1.59 per share against an estimate of $1.22 per share, delivering a surprise of 30.33% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Deckers have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of another earnings beat [5][8] - The current Earnings ESP for Deckers is +6.75%, suggesting that analysts have become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [8] Zacks Rank and Predictive Metrics - Deckers holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, suggests a high probability of beating consensus estimates, with historical data showing nearly 70% success in such cases [6][8] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]

If you have found my strategies interesting, useful, or profitable, consider supporting my continued research by joining the Cyclical Investor's Club . It's only $400/month, and it's where I share my latest research and exclusive small-and-midcap ideas. Two-week trials are free.Learning how to cut through the noise and look toward the medium-term future is an important skill for investors. One of the few areas in which individual investors can have an advantage over Wall Street traders isCory leads the inve ...

Deckers (DECK) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Shares of this maker of Ugg footwear have returned -8.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -3.9% change. The Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which Deckers belongs, has lost 8.9% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?While media ...

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor will face challenges due to tariffs, but its flexible supply chain and strong brand presence may mitigate the impact on its financial performance [1] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The company will experience higher costs as a result of tariffs [1] - Tariffs are a significant topic in the market, affecting various companies including Deckers Outdoor [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Deckers Outdoor's flexible supply chain may provide an advantage over competitors facing similar tariff-related challenges [1] - The strength of the company's brands could help maintain its market position despite increased costs [1]

After a record-breaking rally in 2024 when shares of Deckers Outdoor (DECK -4.19%) soared by 82%, the stock slammed into a brick wall in early 2025 and is now down 53% from its 52-week high as of this writing. Here are three reasons Deckers Outdoor could be a great portfolio buy now. 1. A phenomenal growth story Deckers Outdoor is best known for its footwear brands, including the iconic Ugg sheepskin boots and high- performance Hoka running and athletic shoes. The latter has been a game changer for the comp ...

Company Performance - Deckers (DECK) closed at $106.13, with a slight increase of +0.1% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.23% [1] - Over the past month, Deckers' shares have declined by 16.34%, which is worse than the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 11.71% and the S&P 500's loss of 12.13% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings disclosure for Deckers is anticipated, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.55, representing a 33.73% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $992.79 million, indicating a growth of 3.44% compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Deckers are crucial as they reflect changing business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Deckers currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with a track record of superior performance, where 1 stocks have averaged an annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - The Forward P/E ratio for Deckers is 16.07, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 12.51, and the PEG ratio stands at 1.06, compared to the industry average of 1.22 [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 168, placing it in the bottom 33% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Performance - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 25.9% over the past month, which is worse than the Zacks Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry's decline of 7.9% and the S&P 500's decline of 3.3% [1][4] - The stock closed at $100.88, nearly 55% below its 52-week high of $223.98 reached on January 30, 2025, and is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment [6][9] Revenue and Growth Challenges - The decline in DECK's stock price is attributed to slowing growth and increased competition in the footwear and accessories market, with revenue deceleration due to inventory constraints affecting key brands like UGG [4][13] - Management anticipates a 13.2% decline in UGG sales in the fourth quarter, contrasting with a 16.1% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, leading to an expected overall sales growth deceleration to 1% in the fourth quarter from 17.1% in the third quarter [14][16] Cost and Margin Pressures - SG&A expenses rose 24.9% year-over-year to $535.3 million in the fiscal third quarter, driven by increased marketing spend and an expanded workforce, which is expected to pressure the company's operating margin [17] - Increased markdowns and promotional activities, particularly for HOKA, along with higher freight costs and foreign exchange pressures, are anticipated to further impact profitability [16][17] Valuation Metrics - DECK is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 3.09, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.45 and the sector average of 1.50, indicating strong investor confidence but also heightening valuation risk [9][10] - Compared to peers, Boot Barn has a forward P/S of 1.56, Skechers at 0.73, and Adidas at 1.35, highlighting DECK's premium positioning [10] Long-term Growth Potential - Deckers is focusing on brand portfolio reinforcement through innovative product launches and optimized distribution strategies, with management guiding for a 15% year-over-year revenue growth to $4.9 billion for fiscal 2025 [18][19] - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in high-potential markets like China, which is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth [21] Direct-to-Consumer Segment - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment is a key growth driver, with DTC net sales increasing 17.9% to $1.01 billion in the fiscal third quarter, supported by strong digital performance and the expansion of flagship retail locations [22] - Enhanced omnichannel capabilities and loyalty initiatives are fueling customer acquisition and brand loyalty, positioning the company for sustained success [22]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index is down approximately 5% at the start of 2025, indicating investor concerns about the economy [1] - Stocks are experiencing a significant decline, reflecting broader economic worries [1] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor is the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500, down 46% [3] - The company reported a 17% revenue growth in Q4 2024, with net sales of $1.8 billion, but analysts were not satisfied with its guidance projecting 15% growth for the current year [3][4] - The stock was previously trading at over 35 times its trailing earnings but has since dropped to about 18 times [4] - Economic uncertainties, including trade wars and tariffs, pose risks to Deckers' business, and there is potential for guidance cuts [5] Group 3: Tesla - Tesla is the second worst-performing stock, down 38%, facing challenges due to questionable growth prospects and controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk [6] - The company's automotive revenue fell by 8% in Q4, totaling $19.8 billion, with profits declining by 71% year over year to $2.3 billion [7] - Tesla's stock is trading at over 90 times its estimated future earnings, indicating it remains highly expensive with potential for further decline [8] Group 4: On Semiconductor - On Semiconductor is the third worst-performing stock, down 36%, primarily affected by economic headwinds in the automotive sector [9] - The company reported sales of $7.1 billion in 2024, a 14% decline year over year, suggesting a challenging recovery ahead [10] - On Semiconductor trades at a relatively modest valuation of 16 times next year's estimated earnings, presenting a potential long-term buying opportunity [10][11] - The long-term growth prospects for semiconductor companies are significant, with On Semiconductor's stock at multiyear lows, indicating potential for future recovery [11]