Group 1 - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Deckers (DECK) is 2.00, indicating a Buy, based on recommendations from 20 brokerage firms, with 45% as Strong Buy and 10% as Buy [2][4] - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings, with five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, which may mislead investors [5][9] - The Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, is a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance compared to ABR [7][10] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers has increased by 0.8% over the past month to $5.53, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [12] - The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for Deckers, suggesting a potential for stock price appreciation [13]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers (DECK) is positioned well to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, making it a stock worth considering for investors [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Deckers has a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, averaging a 27.66% beat over the last two quarters [2]. - In the last reported quarter, Deckers achieved earnings of $1.59 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.22 per share by 30.33% [3]. - In the previous quarter, the company was expected to earn $0.60 per share but delivered $0.75 per share, resulting in a 25% surprise [3]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent changes in earnings estimates for Deckers have been favorable, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP indicating potential for another earnings beat [4]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [5]. - Deckers currently has an Earnings ESP of +17.10%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [7]. Group 3: Importance of Earnings ESP - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [6]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) indicates a high likelihood of an earnings beat for Deckers [7]. - It is crucial for investors to check a company's Earnings ESP before quarterly releases to enhance the chances of successful investment decisions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Deckers (DECK) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the importance of changing earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. Recent Performance and Projections - For the fiscal year ending March 2025, Deckers is projected to earn $5.53 per share, reflecting a 13.8% increase from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers has risen by 4.7%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Deckers to a Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for higher stock prices in the near term [10].

Core Viewpoint - Deckers is showing positive stock performance relative to the broader market, with a recent trading price of $207.25, reflecting a 1.32% increase, outperforming the S&P 500 and other indices [1] Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings report for Deckers is anticipated to show an EPS of $2.44, which is a 3.17% decrease from the same quarter last year, while quarterly revenue is expected to reach $1.69 billion, marking an 8.13% increase year-over-year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $5.49 per share and revenue at $4.87 billion, indicating increases of 12.96% and 13.64% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Deckers reflect positive sentiment regarding the company's business operations and profit generation capabilities [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, currently ranks Deckers as 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook [6] Valuation Metrics - Deckers is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 37.26, significantly higher than the industry average of 17.03, suggesting a premium valuation [7] - The company's PEG ratio stands at 2.87, compared to the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry average of 1.52, indicating that Deckers is expected to grow at a slower rate relative to its valuation [8] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is positioned in the top 35% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank, which suggests a favorable environment for companies within this sector [8] - Research indicates that industries rated in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, highlighting the potential for investment opportunities in well-ranked sectors [9]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is experiencing strong upward momentum, trading above its 50 and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating price stability and long-term bullish trends [1][2]. Stock Performance - DECK closed at $207.11, above its 50-day SMA of $184.79 and 200-day SMA of $161.58, reflecting a continued uptrend and positive market sentiment [2]. - The stock is currently 3.5% below its 52-week high of $214.70, achieved on December 20, 2024, with a 33.1% increase in the past three months compared to the Zacks Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry's 13.2% growth [5][6]. Operational Efficiency and Growth - Deckers has enhanced operational efficiency and growth initiatives, outperforming the broader Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index, which grew by 7.2% and 5.2% respectively during the same period [6]. Brand Performance - The company's core brands, UGG and HOKA, are central to its success, with HOKA projected to become a multi-billion-dollar brand. In Q2 of fiscal 2025, HOKA sales increased by 34.7%, while UGG saw a 13% growth [9][10]. - Year-over-year increases in net sales for HOKA and UGG are anticipated at 24% and 5.4% respectively for fiscal 2025 [10]. Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Business - The DTC business contributed significantly, with net sales rising 19.9% to $397.7 million and comparable net sales increasing by 17%. DTC revenues are expected to grow by 12.6% in fiscal 2025 [11]. Wholesale Channel Success - Wholesale revenues surged 20.2% year over year, reaching $913.7 million, driven by strong performances from HOKA and UGG, with wholesale revenues rising 33% and 14% respectively [12][13]. International Expansion - International sales jumped 33% year over year, supported by strategic investments in new stores and retail locations, with expected revenue growth of 15.5% in fiscal 2025 [14][15]. Financial Outlook - Total revenues for fiscal 2025 are projected at $4.8 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, with HOKA expected to achieve 24% growth and UGG mid-single-digit growth [16]. - The gross margin outlook has been revised to 55-55.5%, and EPS guidance has been raised to $5.15-$5.25, reflecting improved profitability from $4.86 in the prior year [17]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have positively revised the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS, with current fiscal year estimates increased by one penny to $5.49 per share, and next fiscal year's estimate raised to $6.22 per share [18][19].

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) has shown strong stock performance with an 87.4% lead for 2024 and is on track for its fourth gain in the last five sessions [4] - The stock recently reached an all-time high of $214.70, supported by the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further record peaks [4] - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is at 95 out of 100, suggesting it has consistently outperformed volatility expectations over the past year [1] Volatility and Price Movement - The stock's recent high coincides with historically low implied volatility (IV), which has historically generated positive momentum [2] - Data indicates that one month after similar signals, the stock was higher 80% of the time, averaging a 5.7% gain [3] - Currently priced at $208.70, a similar upward movement could push DECK to a new record high of $220.59 [3] Analyst Sentiment - Among analysts covering the stock, nine have rated it as a "hold," while the 12-month consensus target price is $202.15, representing a 3% discount to current levels [3]

Group 1 - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Deckers (DECK) is 2.00, indicating a "Buy" on a scale from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) based on recommendations from 20 brokerage firms [10] - There are nine "Strong Buy" and two "Buy" recommendations, which account for 45% and 10% of all recommendations respectively [2] - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about Deckers' earnings prospects, as indicated by a consensus revision of EPS estimates higher, suggesting potential for stock price increase in the near term [8] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers has increased by 0.1% over the past month to $5.49, contributing to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the company [17][18] - The Zacks Rank is a quantitative model that reflects earnings estimate revisions and is considered more timely in predicting future stock prices compared to the ABR [15][16] - The ABR may not always be up-to-date, while the Zacks Rank quickly incorporates changes in earnings estimates, making it a more reliable indicator for investors [16]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has demonstrated strong performance in the footwear market, significantly outperforming industry benchmarks and showing robust growth in both direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels [1][2][19]. Financial Performance - DECK shares are currently trading at $206.63, just 0.9% below its 52-week high of $208.45, with a 75.4% increase in stock value over the past year compared to the Zacks Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry's 36% growth [1][4]. - In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, DECK's net sales rose 19.9% to $397.7 million, with comparable net sales increasing by 17% [9]. - Total revenues for fiscal 2025 are estimated at $4.8 billion, reflecting a 12% increase from the previous year, with HOKA expected to grow by 24% and UGG projected for mid-single-digit growth [14]. Brand Performance - HOKA achieved a remarkable 34.7% sales increase in the second quarter, while UGG grew by 13%, driven by a diversified product portfolio and optimized distribution strategies [8][7]. - The company's flagship brands, UGG and HOKA, are positioned for continued growth, with HOKA on track to become a multi-billion-dollar brand [7]. Market Position and Strategy - Deckers has strengthened its market position through innovation and a focus on direct-to-consumer operations, enhancing its digital capabilities and omnichannel presence [7][9]. - International sales surged 33% year over year in the fiscal second quarter, indicating strong performances from UGG and HOKA in global markets [10][11]. - Wholesale revenues increased by 20.2% year over year to $913.7 million, with HOKA and UGG contributing significantly to this growth [12][13]. Outlook and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have positively revised their earnings estimates for DECK, with the consensus estimate for the current fiscal year pegged at $5.48 per share and $6.21 for the next fiscal year [16][17]. - The company has raised its gross margin outlook to 55-55.5% and increased its earnings per share guidance to $5.15-$5.25, indicating improved profitability [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article compares Gap (GAP) and Deckers (DECK) to determine which stock is more attractive to value investors, highlighting the importance of valuation metrics alongside earnings outlooks [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - GAP has a forward P/E ratio of 11.95, while DECK has a forward P/E of 37.20, indicating that GAP may be undervalued compared to DECK [5]. - The PEG ratio for GAP is 1.08, suggesting a more favorable valuation relative to its expected earnings growth, whereas DECK has a PEG ratio of 2.86, indicating a higher valuation relative to growth expectations [5]. - GAP's P/B ratio is 2.91, which is significantly lower than DECK's P/B of 13.92, further supporting the notion that GAP is undervalued [6]. Investment Grades - GAP has received a Value grade of A, while DECK has been assigned a Value grade of F, reflecting the disparity in their valuation metrics [6]. - Both companies have a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions, but GAP is considered the superior value option based on its valuation figures [3][7].

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has recently reached a 52-week high, prompting a reassessment of its stock potential at elevated levels [1][2] - The stock has shown impressive year-to-date momentum, driven by strong demand for its brands HOKA and UGG, with shares advancing 84.3% year to date compared to the industry's rise of 35.5% [3][9] - The company is currently trading at a premium valuation, with a forward P/E ratio of 34.22, reflecting strong fundamentals and growth potential [18] Stock Performance - Deckers closed at $204.95, near its 52-week high of $207.29, with a slight pullback attributed to profit-taking [5] - Technical indicators show the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating robust upward momentum and price stability [6] Brand Performance - HOKA has been a significant growth driver, with a 32% revenue increase in the first half of fiscal 2025, surpassing $2 billion in trailing 12-month revenues for the first time [10] - UGG also contributed to growth, with a 13% increase in the first half of fiscal 2025, supported by strategic initiatives to modernize its offerings [11] Revenue and Earnings Growth - Deckers reported a 20.1% year-over-year revenue surge, with a gross margin of 55.9%, up from 53.4% in the previous year, leading to a 39.5% increase in earnings per share to $1.59 [9] - Direct-to-consumer revenues increased by 22%, while wholesale revenues grew by 20%, showcasing strength across key markets [12] Future Outlook - Management projects a 12% increase in fiscal 2025 net sales to $4.8 billion, with HOKA expected to grow by around 24% and UGG by mid-single digits [14][15] - Wall Street analysts have raised earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year increasing by 3.8% to $5.48 per share [16] Investment Considerations - Deckers' strong brand portfolio, financial strength, and strategic initiatives make it a compelling investment opportunity [20] - The company's robust growth and international expansion reflect a well-executed strategy that is expected to drive long-term value for investors [20]