"对等关税"的不确定性在下降，但是特朗普才是最大的变数。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人厉梦颖 随着7月9日关税豁免期限临近，美国加快了谈判进程。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特近期表 示，美国与多个国家的贸易谈判已进入最后阶段，但相关协议的公布将推迟至《大美丽法案》通过后， 预计从7月4日起将陆续宣布一系列贸易协定。贝森特和卢特尼克也表示白宫预计在7月9日之前和多个 主要贸易伙伴敲定协议。 之前美国与其他国家的贸易谈判进展缓慢，主要原因在于美方诉求不够明确，阻碍了谈判进程。目前， 美国已逐步明确了对部分非美国家的具体要求，这些诉求能否得到满足将成为7月9日能否达成协议的 决定性因素。 一、美国在关税博弈中的诉求是什么？ 吸取历史教训，特朗普政府在本轮贸易谈判中运用了更具策略性的关税手段：一方面，通过维持10% 的基线关税来避免过度刺激贸易伙伴；另一方面，则将超过10%的附加关税作为谈判筹码，旨在迫使 盟友妥协，促使其扩大对美国商品的采购，同时又避免引发全面的报复性措施。 这种精准的关税调 控，既延续了关税作为威慑工具的效力，又有效规避了全面贸易对抗可能带来的风险。 美国扩大商品出口主要集中在 能源和农产品 领 ...

美国此次以"对等关税"作为谈判筹码，让贸易伙伴扩大对美国商品的采购、促进制造业回流、强化供应链安全，并 为美国企业营造更有利的全球经营环境。目前，印度、巴基斯坦、瑞士等国有望与美国达成贸易协议或贸易框架协议。 而欧盟、日本、韩国以及部分东盟国家仍在谈判之中，既有可能达成贸易协议，也有较大可能获得关税延期。尽管此 次"对等关税"的不确定性或许会降低，但特朗普政府仍握有 232 条款、301 条款等其他加征关税的工具，这意味着 未来的贸易政策依然充满高度不确定性。 风险提示 美国为了达成贸易协定去除不确定性，放松贸易谈判条件；非美国家为了尽快达成贸易协定，答应美国诉求；特朗普 政府对于未达成贸易协定的国家直接拉高关税。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 | 国家/地区 | 逆差（十亿美元） | 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | 国家/地区 | | 逆差（十亿美元） 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国 | 295.40 | 34% | 贸易框架协议 | 老挝 | 0.76 | 48% | 尚未达成 ...

当人们想到曾经的"世界糖罐"–古巴，脑海中浮现的往往是雪茄的青烟、老式汽车的轮廓，以及弥漫在哈 瓦那街头的萨尔萨舞曲。然而，在这幅经典画面中，还有一杯不可或缺的琥珀色液体–朗姆酒。从海明威 钟爱的"莫吉托"到风靡全球的"自由古巴"，古巴朗姆酒早已超越了饮品的范畴，成为国家文化与身份的象 征。 但如今，这块金字招牌正因其赖以为生的根基–蔗糖产业的崩溃，而面临前所未有的生存危机。 糖蜜告急：釜底抽薪的产业之痛 朗姆酒的灵魂在于糖蜜，这是甘蔗制糖过程中产生的深色、粘稠的副产品。然而，古巴的"甜蜜事业"正坠 入历史的谷底。曾经作为"世界糖罐"的古巴，在1980年代末，其蔗糖年产量一度超过800万吨。 国际合作的阴影与产业的挣扎 这场危机也波及了古巴朗姆酒国际化最成功的案例。自1993年以来，法国保乐力加集团与古巴政府的合资 企业成功地将"哈瓦那俱乐部"（Havana Club）品牌从年销40万箱的古巴本土品牌，打造成了年销超过400 万箱的全球知名朗姆酒。 同样，英国的帝亚吉欧集团也在2019年与古巴国有企业合作，在全球推广"圣地亚哥"（Santiago de Cuba） 朗姆酒。 然而，即便是这些拥有雄厚资本和全球 ...

Group 1 - The premier beer and liquor company's stock has increased over 130% from Covid lows due to heightened drinking rates among captive indoor audiences [1] - The analysis focuses on identifying high-yield investment opportunities for individual investors, emphasizing the importance of expert research [1] Group 2 - The company has a beneficial long position in the shares of DEO, indicating confidence in its future performance [2]

Diageo plc (DEO) reported net sales data for third-quarter fiscal 2025 and issued other updates. On a reported basis, net sales of $4.4 billion jumped 2.9% year over year, due to organic growth, partly offset by foreign exchange headwinds and disposals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $4.1 billion.Organic net sales climbed 5.9% year over year, with robust organic volumes increasing 2.8% and favorable price/mix of 3.1%. Significant phasing gains are likely to have contributed almost 4% to ...

Core Concept - Captain Morgan Sliced is launching the "Play the Slice" campaign, encouraging fans to share their golf swings on social media for a chance to win a golf getaway [1][2]. Group 1: Campaign Details - The "Play the Slice" contest runs until the end of July, inviting participants aged 21 and over to post their golf slices on Instagram [1]. - The campaign is an official partnership with the Breezy Open, featuring events in Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia, along with Sliced Lounges and rewards [2]. - The contest includes a grand prize of a golf trip for four to Hilton Head, South Carolina, which includes flights and accommodations [1]. Group 2: Brand Messaging - The campaign emphasizes a fun and relaxed approach to golf, celebrating all types of swings, including imperfect ones [4][5]. - Captain Morgan Sliced is marketed as a premium ready-to-drink beverage with a 5.8% ABV, available in Original and Sweet vs. Heat variety packs for a suggested retail price of $19.99 [5]. Group 3: Merchandise - A limited-edition "Play the Slice Collection" will be launched later this summer in collaboration with Pluto Golf, featuring various golf apparel and accessories [4]. Group 4: Company Background - Captain Morgan is the number one selling spiced rum in the U.S., with a diverse portfolio of flavored rums [8]. - Diageo, the parent company, is a global leader in beverage alcohol, with products sold in over 180 countries [11].

Core Insights - Sin stocks, representing companies in industries like alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and gambling, have consistently outperformed broader markets due to strong cash flows and inelastic demand [2][4][11] Industry Overview - The U.S. alcoholic beverages market is projected to grow from $544.19 billion in 2024 to $709.13 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.4% [8] - The global tobacco market is expected to increase from $921.4 billion in 2024 to $1,198.4 billion by 2035, reflecting a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2035 [9] - The global online gambling market was valued at $78.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9% from 2025 to 2030 [10] Company Insights - Molson Coors (TAP) is focusing on market share growth through innovation and premiumization in the alcohol sector [7] - Boyd Gaming (BYD) is enhancing growth through property upgrades and strategic investments in the gambling industry [7] - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is transforming towards a smoke-free future, aiming for a majority of its revenue from reduced-risk products by 2030 [13][15] - MGM Resorts International (MGM) is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the gaming and tourism industries, with a strong digital strategy through BetMGM [17][18] - Diageo Plc (DEO) is focusing on premiumization and innovation, with a strong portfolio of iconic brands and a strategy to enhance direct-to-consumer engagement [20][21][22]

Diageo plc’s (DEO) recent stock performance reflects strong investor confidence in its fundamentals and strategic initiatives. The company’s shares have seen a 7.5% improvement in the past month, outpacing the industry’s 5.7% increase, the Consumer Staples sector’s 2.3% growth and the S&P 500’s 2.9% increase, suggesting resilience in a challenging market environment.DEO Stock's Price Performance In the Past MonthImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThis upward momentum can be attributed to several key dri ...

作 者丨肖夏 编 辑丨骆一帆 图 源丨新华社 美国对外关税一加再加，美国一线工人依然保不住工作。 再过一周，美国肯塔基州有百年历史的百富门制桶厂将正式关闭。这家威士忌木桶厂成立于 1 9 2 2年，二战期间曾一度被美国军方征用转为制造枪托、飞机胶合板。 战后这家制桶厂被老牌酒企百富门收购，过去多年是美国唯一由烈酒企业自营的威士忌木桶 厂。百富门是美国最大的烈酒集团，其历史可追溯至1 9世纪末，旗下最知名的莫过于美国本 土威士忌品牌杰克丹尼（J a c k Da n i e ls）。 如今这家百年老厂走入历史，2 1 0位当地员工只能另求出路。 百富门预计，关掉制桶厂每年可 省下至少7 0 0 0万美元成本，卖掉工厂的设备和资产还能回收超过3 0 0 0万美元 。 这是特朗普政府将关税政策武器化以来，全球酒业受到冲击的一个缩影。作为年规模 数千亿美元的全球酒业产业链的一部分，即使是美国企业和员工，也无法从关税争端 中幸免。 今年1月1 4日，特朗普正式就任前几天，百富门宣布了一轮旨在实现增长的战略举措，核心内 容 是 精 简 运 营 、 降 低 成 本 ， 计 划 全 球 裁 员 1 2% 。 包 括 上 述 ...

Accessibility Statement Skip Navigation This past weekend, The Crown Royal Rig touched down in Nashville timed to Kane Brown's tour stop in the Music City! The brand toasted to the partnership and brought the spirit of generosity to life through a series of elevated experiences. The weekend began with a backstage VIP takeover where guests 21+ were invited to receive exclusive concert merch, enjoy Kane Brown's signature Crown Royal cocktails, the Crown Royal Ranch Water and the Blackberry Ginger Lemonade,  ...