So you cut your price target down to 240. The stock trades at about 226 right now. So you're not seeing a lot of upside movement.You also cut to neutral on your rating. What happened. Uh the stock hasn't moved a lot in the last 3 months, but why now.>> Well, it Good morning, Frank. Uh thanks for having me. And you're right.Uh this change of dimminimus, which went into effect in May for China and Hong Kong, went to the rest of the world at the end of August. And that's going to be a big issue for FedEx. We'r ...

So you cut your price target down to 240. The stock trades at about 226 right now. So you're not seeing a lot of upside movement.You also cut to neutral on your rating. What happened. Uh the stock hasn't moved a lot in the last 3 months, but why now.Well, it Good morning, Frank. Uh thanks for having me. And you're right.Uh this change of dimminimus, which went into effect in May for China and Hong Kong, went to the rest of the world at the end of August. And that's going to be a big issue for FedEx. We're g ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate reduction cycle, lowering the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, with projections for two additional cuts by year-end, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [5][6] - The market's reaction to the rate cut was muted, with the S&P 500 index falling less than 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5% [3][4] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the complexities of the current economic landscape, characterized by weakening job data and persistent inflation, indicating a challenging environment for monetary policy [6] Market Reactions - Stock futures showed positive movement ahead of the market open, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 contracts up 1.1%, and Dow Jones futures increasing by 0.7% [6] - The market had anticipated the rate cut, leading to minimal dramatic movements in stock prices upon the announcement [4] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week of September 13 are expected to decrease to 240,000 from 263,000 in the previous week [7] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is projected to rebound to 2% after a decline of 0.3% in August [7] - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index has been declining, with a 2.7% drop from January to July 2025, and is expected to dip by 0.2% in the September reading [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of FedEx (FDX.US) may provide insights into the sustainability of the current stock market rally, as indicated by the Dow Theory, which emphasizes the need for confirmation between industrial and transportation indices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has been reaching record highs, and the transportation index, which remains sluggish, signals potential market concerns [1][4]. - Since 2005, the current gap between these indices has only been observed during significant downturns, such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [1]. Group 2: FedEx's Performance - FedEx's stock has declined by 20% since 2025, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500, while its competitor UPS has seen a 33% drop, reaching near lows not seen since 2013 [5]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 has risen by 12% this year, and the Dow Jones by 8%, while the transportation index has decreased by 2.5% [5]. Group 3: Financial Expectations - Analysts expect FedEx to report slight revenue and adjusted earnings growth in its Q1 FY2025 report, with market reactions likely hinging on the outlook for the holiday season [7][9]. - FedEx has only provided guidance for the current quarter, while UPS has abandoned its full-year earnings forecast [7]. Group 4: Policy Impact - Investors are particularly focused on how FedEx will address the impact of the cancellation of the "de minimis exemption," which previously allowed packages valued at $800 or less to enter the U.S. tax-free [9]. - The cancellation of this policy has intensified pressure on FedEx and UPS, especially after it was fully implemented globally in August [9]. Group 5: Theoretical Perspectives - The Dow Theory suggests that the current market conditions may indicate a "huge bull trap," as the divergence between the indices raises concerns about economic health [12]. - Some strategists argue that the Dow Theory may be less relevant in the digital age, as it does not account for the logistics data from major retailers like Amazon and Walmart, which have their own logistics systems [10].

FedEx earnings are likely to provide some clues about how much further the stock market rally can go — at least according to one theory https://t.co/wu0u1AZ3D1 ...

Core Insights - FedEx's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to provide insights into the sustainability of the recent stock market rally, particularly in relation to the Dow Theory [1][4] - The Dow Theory suggests that a genuine market trend requires confirmation between the industrials and transportation indices, which has not occurred this year, raising concerns about market stability [2][3] Company Performance - FedEx has experienced a significant decline of 20% in 2025, ranking among the 50 worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 Index, while UPS shares have dropped 33%, nearing their lowest levels since 2013 [6] - Analysts predict slight growth in FedEx's revenue and adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter of its fiscal year, but the market's reaction will depend on the company's outlook for the holiday season [8] Market Context - The S&P 500 has increased by 12% this year, while the Dow has risen by 8%, contrasting with a 2.5% decline in the Dow Transport Index, indicating a divergence in market performance [7] - The transportation sector, including companies like FedEx and UPS, is viewed as a critical indicator of economic health, with their struggles potentially signaling broader market issues [4][5]

Group 1 - Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.00 per share with revenue of $3.04 billion [2] - Bullish BLSH reported a profit of 93 cents per share for the second quarter, recovering from a loss of $1.03 per share a year ago, with revenue increasing to $58.63 million from $49.57 million [2] - Factset Research Systems Inc. (FDS) is anticipated to post quarterly earnings of $4.13 per share on revenue of $593.45 million [2] - 89bio Inc. (ETNB) has agreed to be acquired by Roche for $14.50 per share, representing a 79% premium to its closing stock price on September 17 [2] - FedEx Corp. (FDX) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $3.62 per share with revenue of $21.67 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stifel has reduced its price target for FedEx to $308 from $315 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing macroeconomic pressures and consumer caution as potential challenges ahead of the company's fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings [1]. Group 1: Market Challenges - Macroeconomic pressures, tariff uncertainty, and changes to the de minimis import rule are expected to negatively impact shipping volumes [1]. - Consumer caution may dampen the peak shipping season, further affecting demand [1]. Group 2: Cost-Cutting Initiatives - FedEx's Network 2.0 initiative presents cost-cutting opportunities, with clearer progress anticipated in the upcoming quarter [2]. - Successful execution of this initiative could help mitigate or even exceed the challenges posed by demand fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite the variability in earnings outcomes, FedEx's current valuation indicates an attractive risk-reward profile [3]. - There is potential for upside from an expected upcycle within the next 12 months and the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight in 2026 [3].

Core Insights - FedEx is expected to report a quarterly profit decline due to President Donald Trump's decision to eliminate tariff-exempt treatment for popular direct-to-consumer shipments [1] Company Impact - The decision by the President will directly affect FedEx's financial results, leading to a profit hit in the upcoming quarterly report [1] Industry Context - The change in tariff treatment reflects broader trade policy shifts that could impact logistics and delivery companies, particularly those involved in e-commerce and direct-to-consumer shipping [1]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Corporation is expected to show revenue and earnings per share growth in its upcoming first-quarter financial results, despite a recent trend of stock sell-offs following earnings reports [1]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict FedEx will report first-quarter revenue of $21.67 billion, an increase from $21.60 billion in the same quarter last year [2]. - Expected earnings per share for the first quarter are $3.62, up from $3.60 in the previous year [2]. - The company has beaten revenue estimates in three consecutive quarters but only in four of the last ten quarters overall [2]. Recent Performance and Guidance - FedEx beat earnings per share estimates in the fourth quarter and has surpassed estimates in six of the last ten quarters [3]. - The company's guidance for first-quarter earnings per share is between $3.40 and $4.00, with revenue guidance ranging from $21.60 billion to $22.03 billion [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have been reducing their price targets for FedEx ahead of the earnings report, indicating a cautious outlook [4]. - Jay Woods from Freedom Capital Markets noted that FedEx has been a frustrating stock, with shares declining after each of the last four earnings reports [4]. - The implied volatility on FedEx's earnings day is +/- 7.1% [5]. Key Items to Watch - Investors will focus on shipment volumes and the impact of a recent partnership with Amazon on FedEx's shipments [5]. - The expiration of a partnership with the United States Postal Service may also affect the company's performance [6]. - FedEx is targeting $1 billion in cost savings by fiscal 2026, and investors will be keen to see any updates on this goal [6]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Evercore ISI Group downgraded FedEx from Outperform to In-Line, lowering the price target from $249 to $243 [7]. - Bernstein maintained a Market Perform rating but reduced the price target from $249 to $247 [7]. - Bank of America Securities downgraded from Buy to Neutral, lowering the price target from $245 to $240 [7]. - JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating but lowered the price target from $290 to $285 [7]. - UBS maintained a Buy rating while reducing the price target from $297 to $293 [7]. Stock Performance - FedEx stock is currently up 0.9% to $229.64, with a 52-week trading range of $194.30 to $308.53 [8]. - The stock has declined 16.3% year-to-date in 2025 [8].