7400亿美元的2026年AI资本开支同比增长约70%，正吞噬美股科技巨头经营现金流，除微软外，其他公司自由现金流或转负。AI相 关债务占美国IG债市约14%，资金由股市溢价转向债市承接。随着现金流和融资压力加剧，市场容错率下降，一旦回报兑现节奏放 缓，风险将向更广泛资产蔓延。 当硅谷巨头们的AI资本开支膨胀到接近全年现金流规模时，市场关心的已不再是"值不值"，而是"撑不撑得住"。 据最新公开数据显示，谷歌、亚马逊、微软、Meta四家超大规模云厂商2026年合计资本支出指引约为 6500亿美元 。 若计入甲骨文（Oracle）与CoreWeave，整体规模上升至 7400亿美元 。 这些数字不仅高于市场预期，而且是 成倍级别的偏离 。 7400亿美元 意味着什么？ 7400亿美元较2025年同比增长约 70%； 它是2025年底市场一致预期（约35%的资本支出增长）的 两倍； 7400亿美元接近整个超大规模云厂商体系 全年经营现金流总量。 更值得警惕的是：高盛分析师Shreeti Kapa指出，如果达到这一水平，这种支出的强度将接近上世纪90年代互联网泡沫巅峰时 期占GDP 1.4%的水平 。虽然仍低于工业革 ...

来源：格隆汇APP Hawtin还指出，人工智能竞赛中一个关键因素可能决定胜负：专有数据。"数据的所有权将绝对决定谁 能最终胜出。"并以谷歌母公司Alphabet去年的强劲表现为例。Hawtin表示，尽管Alphabet去年起初表现 不佳，但最终仍成为"科技七巨头"中表现最好的公司，全年涨幅达65%，而"这主要归功于其庞大的专 有数据集"。 格隆汇2月11日｜"科技七巨头"——苹果、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、特斯拉和英伟达——不断 增长的资本支出，预示着投资者面临的风险增加，并可能成为这些主导公司最终跑输大盘的催化剂。这 是英国基金管理公司Liontrust全球股票主管Hawtin的最新观点。他指出，最近财报中宣布的激进支出计 划是那些寻求可靠回报的股东们最关心的问题。 ...

36氪制图 OpenClaw不依赖单一模型，而是在后台协调多个Agent分工协作。它像一个中控台，让AI从"回答者"变成"执行者"。尽管目前在多步骤规划上成功率仍有衰 减，但它证明了：在App之上，已经可以建立一层新的执行结构。 "透视图"是36氪新推出的轻量化数据图文栏目——以数据透视趋势，以图片呈现要点。"Talk is Cheap. Show me the data." 作者丨邱晓芬 GitHub上的开源项目OpenClaw近期迅速走红。在与Y Combinator的访谈中，创始人Peter Steinberger抛出一句话："未来的操作系统不再需要图标，只需要意 图。"他甚至激进地判断，80%的App将因为不再被主动打开而自然消亡。这并非危言耸听，而是三种交互结构正在重塑"入口"。 36氪制图 01. 调度层重构：OpenClaw的"蜂群"思路 02. 硬件层接管：豆包手机的"视觉暴力" 36氪制图 字节跳动选择了更直接的路径——不等待接口开放，利用视觉识别让 AI 自己"用App"。这验证了界面层接管的可能性，但在当前30 TOPS的端侧算力瓶颈 下，跨应用操作仍面临延迟（约3秒）与成功率（约50% ...

Group 1: Banking and Wealth Management - The scale of bank wealth management products has decreased by approximately 815 billion yuan, with 14 major wealth management companies managing a total of 24.59 trillion yuan as of the end of January 2026, marking a decline for the second consecutive month since reaching a peak in November 2025 [1][2] - Despite the decline, there is optimism in the industry as low fixed deposit rates and a large amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 may lead to a reallocation of household wealth towards wealth management products [1] - Sales of bank wealth management products surged before the Spring Festival, with some products breaking sales records, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] Group 2: Private Equity and Investment - The number of domestic private equity firms managing over 10 billion yuan has reached a record high of 122, increasing by 10 from the end of December 2025 [1] - Eight new private equity firms entered the 10 billion yuan club in January 2026, showcasing a growing trend in the private equity sector [1] Group 3: Energy Market - The EIA's short-term energy outlook report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $58 per barrel in 2026, up from a previous estimate of $56 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices are expected to average $53.42 per barrel, an increase from $52.21 per barrel [2] Group 4: Silver Market - The World Silver Association forecasts that the silver market will experience a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces [3] - Global silver demand is expected to remain stable, driven by robust retail investment, which may offset declines in other key demand areas such as jewelry and industrial use [3] Group 5: IPO Market - The Hong Kong IPO market has been active in 2026, with fundraising exceeding 79 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of over 1220% [3][4] - As of February 10, 2026, 422 companies are queued for IPOs in Hong Kong, with over 100 having submitted applications since the beginning of the year [3] Group 6: Credit Card Industry - In 2025, 65 credit card centers were closed, surpassing the total number of closures from 2020 to 2024, indicating a significant contraction in the credit card industry [4] - The trend of closing credit card centers is spreading from state-owned and joint-stock banks to city commercial banks, reflecting a shift from expansion to competition in the credit card sector [4] Group 7: Corporate Actions - Ningde Times issued its first green technology innovation bond for 2026, raising 5 billion yuan with a coupon rate of 1.70% [6] - Huazhang Technology plans to acquire 100% of Huayi Microelectronics for 29.96 billion yuan, aiming to enhance its packaging and testing business in the semiconductor sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet Inc. has successfully raised nearly $32 billion in debt within 24 hours to support its artificial intelligence initiatives, achieving record corporate bond sales in both the sterling and Swiss franc markets [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Issuance Details - The debt issuance included the largest-ever corporate bond sales in the sterling and Swiss franc markets, following a $20 billion debt sale on Monday [2]. - The sterling offering featured a rare 100-year note, marking the first such sale by a technology firm since the dot-com era [2][10]. - The 100-year bond attracted nearly 10 times the orders for the £1 billion ($1.4 billion) available, pricing at just 1.2 percentage points above 10-year UK government bonds [3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Investor Interest - High demand was noted across the deals, with a wide range of maturities appealing to various investors, including asset managers, hedge funds, pension funds, and insurers [4]. - The overall borrowing needs of tech firms, particularly in AI, have led to significant interest from investors, with Alphabet's capital expenditures projected to reach $185 billion this year, double last year's spending [5]. Group 3: Industry Context and Comparisons - Other tech companies, such as Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, have also announced substantial spending plans, with Morgan Stanley predicting borrowing by cloud-computing firms to reach $400 billion this year [6]. - Alphabet's recent moves to diversify its debt-raising efforts included tapping the euro bond market, where it raised €6.5 billion ($7.7 billion) [13]. Group 4: Concerns and Market Dynamics - The significant borrowing by major tech firms has raised concerns regarding potential pressure on bond valuations, as these securities are considered expensive by historical standards [8]. - Investor apprehensions about the sustainability of the AI boom and its impact on related sectors, such as Software-as-a-Service, have been noted [8].

Market Overview - Major equity averages experienced a decline towards the end of the trading day, despite the S&P 500 hitting a record high earlier in the session [2][5] - The S&P 500 closed down approximately 0.3%, the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, while the Dow saw a slight increase of 0.1% [6] - Trading volume in the S&P 500 was down 15% from the ten-day average, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4] Economic Indicators - Investors are awaiting a significant jobs report, which is expected to influence market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's decisions [5] - The upcoming inflation report on Friday is also anticipated to provide insights into the U.S. economy [5] Company Performances - Datadog's stock rose nearly 14% after beating expectations in its fourth-quarter results, despite a weaker full-year forecast [10] - Spotify saw a significant increase of almost 15%, attributed to adding 38 million new users, reaching a total of 751 million [12] - European Wax Center's stock surged 43% after agreeing to be taken private by General Atlantic, valuing the company at approximately $330 million [14][15] Notable Declines - Alphabet's shares fell 1.8% after raising nearly $3 billion in debt, highlighting the funding needs of tech companies [16] - Coca-Cola's stock declined as the company projected organic sales growth of 4-5% for 2026, slightly below analyst expectations [17] - Wealth management firms, including Charles Schwab and Raymond James, experienced declines of 7.4% and 8.8%, respectively, following the launch of a new tax planning offering by Altruist [18] Earnings Reports - Ford reported an adjusted EPS of $0.13, below the estimated $0.18, and projected adjusted EV for 2026 between $8 billion to $10 billion [20] - Robinhood's stock dropped approximately 7% in after-hours trading after its fourth-quarter net revenue missed analyst estimates [21] - Lyft's stock fell about 15% in after-hours trading despite authorizing a new share buyback, as the outlook for the first quarter was lower than expected [23][24] - Zillow Group met revenue estimates but provided a first-quarter revenue outlook that was below analyst expectations [25]

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Insights - Major cloud providers including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are projected to have a combined capital expenditure guidance of approximately $650 billion for 2026, which increases to $740 billion when including Oracle and CoreWeave [1][3] - The $740 billion figure represents a 70% year-over-year increase compared to 2025 and is double the market consensus expectation of 35% growth for that year [3][4] - This level of capital expenditure is nearing the total annual operating cash flow of the entire large-scale cloud provider ecosystem, raising concerns about sustainability [3][5] Group 2: Financial Implications - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that if capital expenditures reach $700 billion by 2026, it would be comparable to the peak internet bubble's spending intensity, which was 1.4% of GDP [3][5] - Cash flows are being significantly impacted, with predictions that many companies will exhaust their free cash flow, leading to increased reliance on debt financing [5][9] - The AI investment boom is causing a shift in the debt market, with AI-related investment-grade debt accounting for about 14% of the U.S. investment-grade market, surpassing the banking sector [8][13] Group 3: Debt Market Dynamics - Major tech companies are increasingly turning to the debt market to fund their AI-related expenditures, with Oracle issuing a record $25 billion in bonds and Google following with a $20 billion issuance [14][16] - Despite strong initial demand for these bonds, signs of strain are emerging in the debt market, with widening spreads and underperformance of newly issued bonds [16][18] - The software industry is facing valuation challenges as AI tools disrupt traditional software demand, posing risks to private credit markets heavily invested in software companies [19][22] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Companies are caught in a "prisoner's dilemma," where failing to invest in AI could result in losing market share, while over-investing could lead to financial strain [23][26] - The potential outcomes hinge on the return on investment (ROI) from these massive capital expenditures, with a significant gap between projected profits and required returns [28][29] - Two scenarios are outlined: a bullish scenario where AI adoption mirrors cloud computing's trajectory, and a bearish scenario reminiscent of past tech failures, indicating that not all companies may achieve sufficient long-term profitability [31]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 尽管如此，考虑到科技公司为保持在人工智能能力建设竞赛中的领先地位所需筹集的庞大资金量，即使是 极罕见的交易也在重新出现。 KBRA欧洲宏观策略师戈登·克尔（Gordon Kerr）表示："他们希望触达从结构性融资投资者到超长期投 资者的各类投资人。"百年债券的主要买家将是保险公司和养老基金，而"承销这笔债券的人，很可能不会 等到它到期兑付的时候"。克尔表示："很难说这是否会成为常态。即使在国债市场，这种做法也并非真正 普遍。" 谷歌在AI霸权路上，再度出手！ 据最新消息，科技巨头谷歌的母公司Alphabet计划发行一种极为罕见的百年期债券。这是20世纪90年代 末以来，科技企业首次发行此类超长期限债券。 当前，Alphabet正在为其人工智能雄心背后的空前支出计划筹措资金。周一，Alphabet进行了其史上规 模最大的美元债券发行，筹资200亿美元，超过最初预期的150亿美元。上周，Alphabet表示，其今年资 本支出将高达1850亿美元。 发行百年期债券 据彭博社消息，谷歌母公司Alphabet计划在巨额债务发行中 ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 美国和伊朗上周五在阿曼恢复谈判，这是自6月以来双方首次重启对话。但与此同时，特朗普也在海湾地区推 进大规模军事集结。 "要么我们达成协议，要么就必须像上次那样采取非常强硬的行动，"特朗普表示。 特朗普预计，第二轮美伊谈判将在下周举行。 "我们有一支舰队正在前往那里，另一支也可能会出动，"特朗普说。他补充称，自己正在"考虑"再派遣一支航 母打击群。 美国官员证实，政府内部确实讨论过向该地区增派第二支航母打击群的可能性。 【谷歌母公司Alphabet百年英镑债认购倍数超7倍，多市场筹集近320亿美元债务】 谷歌母公司Alphabet近日筹集近320亿美元债务融资，展现出科技巨头在人工智能竞赛中的庞大资金需求，以 及信贷市场为其提供资金的巨大意愿。 昨夜今晨 【特朗普放话：若美伊谈判无果，或向中东增派航母打击群】 据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普称他正在考虑，若与伊朗的谈判未能取得成果，或向中东地区再派遣一支美国航 母打击群，为可能的军事行动做准备。 公司周一完成200亿美元七期美元债发行后，紧接着推出英镑和瑞士法郎债券，两个市场均创 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank conducted a 3,114 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 2,059 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - The central bank is expected to accelerate interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions due to ongoing economic challenges, with January's manufacturing PMI falling into contraction territory [3] Logistics and Economic Activity - The total social logistics in China reached 368.2 trillion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, with logistics costs as a percentage of GDP decreasing to 13.9% [4] - Industrial logistics contributed significantly to growth, with high-tech manufacturing logistics demand increasing over 9%, particularly in industrial robots and new energy vehicles [4][5] Cross-Border E-Commerce Policies - The Ministry of Finance extended tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce export return goods until the end of 2027, with the 2025 export-import scale reaching 2.75 trillion yuan, a 69.7% increase since 2020 [6] - The policy aims to alleviate financial burdens on businesses facing challenges due to international market conditions [6] Ride-Hailing Industry Regulation - The Ministry of Transport held discussions with Gaode Dache regarding management issues and pricing practices, emphasizing the need for improved operational safety and compliance [8][9] - The regulatory focus aims to foster a transparent and fair competitive environment in the ride-hailing market [9] Corporate Financing and Investment Trends - Alphabet plans to issue a rare 100-year bond, marking a significant move in corporate financing amidst substantial capital expenditures aimed at AI development [10][11] - Microsoft faced a downgrade in ratings due to concerns over capital expenditures and the performance of its AI products, despite a majority of analysts still recommending the stock [12][13] Gold Market Dynamics - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise gold product prices by 15%-30% due to rising international and domestic market factors, marking its fourth price adjustment in a year [14][15] - The shift in consumer demand from gold jewelry to investment products reflects changing market dynamics, with leading brands innovating to add value beyond weight [15]