宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2025 年 10 月 21 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治周期：美国国内政治转向与全球外交格局变化 美国正经历长达十几年的 "向右转动" 周期，是对 1992 年冷战结束后 33 年发 展方向的反向矫正。冷战后欧美因外部威胁消除后，广泛出现自满情绪，国内在性 别、移民、福利等意识形态及政策上的一些争议性议题逐渐凸显，尤其在持极端保 守立场的基督教群体眼中，此类社会变化已趋近于堕落，偏离了传统价值观的轨道。 保守人士如 Charlie Kirk 等在过去十年以来致力于推动回归清教徒立国之本，体现 美国例外主义。美国对旧约重视远超欧洲，因此犹太人在美国地位较高。以特朗普 为首的 MAGA 阵营与以色列关系密切，包括迁都耶路撒冷、偏袒内塔利亚胡打击 哈马斯，这是意识形态上"向右转"的体现。特朗普执政风格并不优雅，类似历史 上的麦卡锡主义。虽然必要，但是如果做过头的话，不排除将来被历史清算。特朗 普下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The cloud computing industry is transitioning towards intelligence, with a significant re-evaluation of industry space driven by AI [5][16] - The global IaaS market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that the domestic IaaS market will approach 800 billion yuan by 2029 [19][21] - Major cloud providers are experiencing high growth in AI-related revenues, which is driving increased capital expenditures [25][51] Summary by Sections Overview of Cloud Computing - The cloud computing industry has evolved through various stages, with the current phase being characterized by the integration of AI, particularly following the rise of large models like ChatGPT in 2023 [16][19] - The global top four cloud providers are seeing rapid growth in AI business revenues, with orders continuing to rise [5][51] IaaS Market Dynamics - The IaaS model provides essential IT resources such as computing, storage, and networking, allowing users to pay based on actual resource usage [10][12] - The domestic IaaS market is projected to reach 4,355.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [19][21] Competitive Landscape - The global IaaS market remains highly concentrated, with the top four players (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Alibaba) holding a significant market share [22][24] - The competition among these giants is intensifying as they invest heavily in AI infrastructure and capabilities [24][25] Growth Drivers - The demand for AI IaaS is reshaping the cloud computing landscape, with a shift from traditional resource scaling to intelligent capabilities [48][56] - The focus is shifting towards application layers such as AI PaaS and MaaS, driven by the increasing need for AI applications [66] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the inference market will become a new growth driver, with commercial opportunities moving towards application layers [57][65] - The evolution of large models towards enhanced reasoning and multi-modal capabilities is expected to unlock new application demands [60][61]

古根海姆将Alphabet的目标价从210美元上调至280美元，维持"买入"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, driven by the AI industry's growth and the need for enhanced computing power [1][3] - The AI industry is experiencing a robust development phase, transitioning from cloud-based models to edge intelligence and embodied intelligence, supported by domestic substitution policies and continuous technological advancements [3][15] Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI data show marginal improvement, with September 2025 CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and declining 0.3% year-on-year, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2][9] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, indicating a narrowing of the decline due to policies aimed at reducing internal competition [2][9] Trade Performance - China's import and export values showed positive growth in September 2025, with total trade value increasing by 8%, exports rising by 8.4%, and imports growing by 7.5% year-on-year, reflecting strong performance in high-tech products and advanced manufacturing [10][12] Semiconductor Sector - TSMC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $33.1 billion, a 10.1% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, with 74% of wafer revenue coming from 7nm and below [12] - Cambricon Technologies reported a staggering year-on-year revenue increase of 1332.52% in Q3 2025, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, with a net profit of 567 million yuan, showcasing significant improvement in performance [12] AI Infrastructure Investment - Major AI companies, including Nvidia, OpenAI, and Google, are accelerating investments in data centers, with Nvidia and partners planning to invest $40 billion in acquiring data center giant Aligned [13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Millisecond Computing" initiative to enhance computing infrastructure, aiming for sub-millisecond connectivity and access in urban networks [13] Energy Sector - The demand for energy storage and power equipment is expected to grow, with Nvidia exploring mid-voltage rectifier applications and developing solid-state transformers to meet the increasing power needs of AI [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the resonance between supply and demand sides to escape the internal competition dilemma, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [15] - Attention should be given to the AI industry chain, including chips, servers, liquid cooling, power supplies, and downstream AI applications, as domestic AI continues to evolve in performance and efficiency [15]

陈骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001、BWH863 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 证券研究报告 海外策略周报: 经济数据推迟发布，联储降息预期升温 证券分析师 2025年10月21日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点 2 • 海外方面，本周市场风偏呈现结构性变化。美股走强、美元及美债收益率回落，港股调整。其中，本周全球股市多数上涨， MSCI全球股指上涨1.20%。美股涨幅较大，道琼斯工业指数上涨1.56%、标普500指数上涨1.70%、纳斯达克指数上涨2.14%。 10年期、2年期美债收益率分别下跌3bp、6bp至4.02%、 3.46%；美元指数下跌0.27%至98.56；COMEX黄金、ICE布油分别上 涨5.76%、下跌1.21%。港股方面，海外政策变化、市场风偏调整，港股走弱。恒生科技下跌8.0%，跌幅居前，恒生中国企业指 数、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生港股通分别下跌3.7%、4.0%、4.1%、4.0%。 • 海外宏观层面，美国经济数据推迟发布，美联储降息幅度可能加大。1）美国经济数据推迟发布。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"， 美国劳工部原定15日公 ...

道指涨1.12%，纳指涨1.37%，标普涨1.07%。苹果涨近4%，iPhone需求刺激投行上调评级。谷歌、亚马 逊涨超1%，Meta涨超2%，特斯拉涨超1%，甲骨文跌近5%。 (本文来自第一财经) 来源：第一财经 ...

Thousands of plaintiffs’ complaints, millions of pages of internal documents and transcripts of countless hours of depositions are about to land in US courtrooms, threatening the future of the biggest social media companies.The blizzard of paperwork is a byproduct of two consolidated lawsuits accusing Snap Inc.’s Snapchat; Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook and Instagram; ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok; and Alphabet Inc.’s YouTube of knowingly designing their platforms to addict users – allegedly resulting in youth de ...

How Small Business Can Survive Google’s AI Overview https://t.co/uITCWGSvTn ...

6个AI模型、各给1万美元实盘厮杀，DeepSeek暂为交易之王 从上周六（10月18日）开始，美国人工智能研究实验室nof1.ai在其"Alpha Arena"（阿尔法竞技场）平台上举办了一场活动——给六个顶级模型一万美元的真 金白银，让它们自主交易加密货币，而且并非模拟盘。每个模型只能独立交易，面对一模一样的提示词、一致的市场、一致的时间戳。这是 AI 之间最公平 的擂台赛。 GPT-5、Claude Sonnet 4.5、DeepSeek Chat V3.1、Gemini 2.5 Pro、Grok 4、Qwen3 Max，六位大模型"选手"正式开战。 几天内6个AI 选手已经拉开了差距，风格各不相同，排名情况是： DeepSeek 大部分时候是第一，不愧是量化起家的，Grok 4 凭借激进风格偶尔能反超一下 DeepSeek，咬的很近。Claude 是妥妥的一位理性脑，分析到位但就 是有拖延症，最惨的是 Gemini 2.5 Pro ，深度套牢，一路向下。 【观网财经丨智能早报10月20日】 截至北京时间周一傍晚，DeepSeek的持仓总市值接近1.4万美元，收益率约40%，最高时一度接近1.5万美元， ...

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a government funding bill, resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown that began on October 1 [1][2] - The funding bill aimed to extend government funding until November 21 but did not meet the required 60 votes, receiving only 50 in favor [2] - The shutdown has led to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) initiating forced unpaid leave for approximately 1,400 employees, marking the first such occurrence since the agency's establishment in 2000 [4][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The government shutdown has caused a "data vacuum," complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to assess economic conditions, particularly regarding inflation and employment risks [6][7] - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% during the upcoming policy meeting [7] - The average monthly non-farm employment growth from June to August was only 29,000, significantly below pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the labor market's true state [7][8] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced significant gains, with major indices rising over 1%, driven by optimism from quarterly earnings reports and improved risk appetite [3][10] - Apple Inc. saw its stock price reach a record high of $262.24, with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion, surpassing Microsoft to become the second-largest company by market value in the U.S. [13][15] - The iPhone 17 series has shown strong early sales, outperforming the iPhone 16 series by 14%, indicating a positive trend for Apple's future sales [15]