Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Q3 are down 2% quarter over quarter, similar to the setup seen in Q2 [2] - In Q2, consensus earnings expectations for the broader market (excluding technology) were about 2.5%, while realized earnings growth was 8.5%, indicating significant upside potential [3] Market Performance - The Dow and S&P indices experienced their best week since August, reflecting a positive sentiment in the market [1] - Despite some sectors underperforming, such as regional banks and oil, defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and gold are performing well [5] Sector Analysis - Regional banks have underperformed by more than 25 percentage points compared to large banks since early 2023, suggesting a preference for large banks as a safer investment [8] - The oil sector is facing challenges due to excess supply following the end of the US driving season, leading to a lack of allocation in energy assets [7] Investment Strategy - The strategy involves not completely rotating away from AI and tech stocks but also considering buying dips in banks and exploring opportunities in manufacturing-sensitive sectors like industrials [9] - Gold is being recommended alongside tech stocks, driven by factors such as China's gold stockpiling and central bank diversification, rather than solely as a hedge against currency debasement [10][14]

Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong residential property market is showing signs of mending investor sentiment, although analysts remain cautious about a full recovery due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1] - Investors accounted for 20% of the market's total transactions in 2025, with certain districts near universities potentially having a higher proportion of investor activity [1] Rental Yields - The average gross rental yield for mass residential units in Hong Kong is 3.7%, which is appealing to mainland buyers [2] - Hong Kong's residential rents increased in August, with the rental index rising by 1.12%, marking the largest increment in 14 months, bringing it close to the record high of 200.1 recorded in August 2019 [6] Interest Rates and Economic Factors - Investor interest is being driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts and potential rent increases, with HSBC offering a fixed-rate mortgage plan at 2.73% per annum [3] - Following the US Federal Reserve's easing of policy rates, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reduced the prime lending rates by 12.5 basis points on September 18 [4] Market Challenges - The Hong Kong economy faces challenges such as weak consumption, high vacancy rates in commercial buildings, and an oversupply of private residential units [5] - While rental yields may not be the most attractive incentive, lower residential flat prices could present a good entry point for investors seeking capital gains [6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for both HSBC Holdings (00005) and Standard Chartered (02888), with a preference for Standard Chartered in the six-month investment outlook [1] Group 1: Target Prices and Ratings - HSBC's target price is maintained at HKD 122, while Standard Chartered's target price is raised from HKD 162 to HKD 168 [1] Group 2: Short-term Impact and Performance - The planned privatization of Hang Seng Bank (00011) has already been reflected in HSBC's stock price, and investors may refrain from factoring in long-term synergies until more quantitative guidance is provided by management [1] - The third-quarter performance will be a key driver for short-term stock prices, with trading fees and credit costs related to Hong Kong commercial real estate being critical variables [1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Opportunities - On October 17, Standard Chartered's stock fell by 5.1%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index and HSBC by 2.6 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, likely due to investor risk aversion stemming from U.S. credit risk events [1] - The company views any further stock price adjustments as a buying opportunity, given Standard Chartered's limited direct exposure to the U.S. market and its strengthened risk management measures in recent years [1] - Financial market volatility may positively impact Standard Chartered's market revenue in the fourth quarter [1]

另外，渣打股价于10月17日下跌5.1%，跑输恒生指数及汇控分别2.6及3.1个百分点，可能是由于投资者 因美国信贷风险事件而采取避险情绪。该行认为，若股价进一步调整，将是买入机会，因渣打对美国市 场的直接敞口有限，且近年来加强了风险管理措施，导致风险敞口收缩。此外，金融市场波动可能对渣 打第四季度的市场收入构成正面影响。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，对汇丰控股(00005)及渣打集团(02888)均维持"增持"评级， 但在六个月投资展望上更偏好渣打，该行维持汇控目标价122港元，上调渣打目标价由162港元升至168 港元。 该行认为，计划私有化恒生银行(00011)对汇丰控股短期影响已反映在股价中，投资者可能在管理层提 供更多量化指引前，不会计入长期协同效应。第三季度业绩将成为短期股价的驱动因素，交易费用及香 港商业地产敞口导致的信贷成本将是关键变动因素。 ...

智通财经APP讯，汇丰控股(00005)发布公告，于2025年10月17日斥资4798.65万英镑回购494.29万股股 份;斥资4.64亿港元回购456.64万股股份。 ...

格隆汇10月20日丨汇丰控股(00005.HK)公告，10月17日耗资4.64亿港元回购456.64万股，每股回购价 100.6-102.4港元。 ...

FF305 | | | 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： HSBC Holdings plc 滙豐控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年10月20日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00005 | 說明 | | 普通股(每股0.50美元) | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the multi-asset investment strategy as it heads into 2026, emphasizing the strength of the US economy despite recent tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions [2][18]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Fundamentals**: High-frequency US data indicates a reacceleration compared to bearish consensus expectations, with a sequential earnings decline expected in Q3 for SPX ex tech [2][48]. 2. **Impact of USD**: A weaker USD is anticipated to benefit US equities in the upcoming quarters, contributing to positive wealth effects and potential AI capital expenditure from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' [2][48]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: Current sentiment has shifted away from short-term sell signals, with machine learning indicators showing a risk-on stance. The overall positioning suggests potential upside for emerging market equities and local rates [3][70]. 4. **Risks Ahead**: The primary risk identified is the potential for higher long-end yields, which could arise if the market begins to price in an end to Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][50]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The report advocates for a risk-on approach, favoring US and emerging market equities over risky fixed income, while remaining underweight in investment-grade credit [5][10]. 6. **Earnings Expectations**: Bottom-up data suggests that Q3 earnings expectations are low, which may be easier to beat, particularly with the supportive backdrop of a weaker USD [48][50]. 7. **M&A Activity**: There is an expectation of increased M&A and IPO volumes in the coming quarters, supported by a strong deal pipeline and upward revisions in company guidance [46][50]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Concerns**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties are acknowledged as headwinds, yet the global equity market remains at an all-time high [18]. - **Consumer Spending**: Positive wealth effects are expected to bolster consumer spending, particularly among high-income households in the US [41][50]. - **Technical Indicators**: The valuation-adjusted momentum framework continues to favor equities, particularly in emerging markets, while sentiment indicators suggest a cautious optimism among long-only investors [56][61]. - **Japan Equities**: A tactical overweight in Japan equities is recommended, particularly in the banking sector, which is expected to recover from recent underperformance [74][76]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the overall positive outlook for US equities and the strategic positioning of multi-asset investments as they approach 2026.

Group 1 - HSBC is mentioned with a fine of $5,000 million expected by 2026 [1][2] - The fine is associated with a compliance issue, indicating potential regulatory challenges for HSBC [1] - The reference to "999.9" may imply a standard of purity or quality, possibly related to financial products or services [2] Group 2 - Ernest Hoffman is identified as a Crypto and Market Reporter with over 15 years of experience in market news [3] - Hoffman has a background in establishing a web-based audio news service and producing economic news videos [3] - His educational background includes a Bachelor's degree in Journalism from Concordia University [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Bank of New York Mellon has increased its stake in HSBC Holdings H shares from 5.99% to 6.01% as of October 15 [1] Group 2 - The increase in ownership percentage indicates a slight but notable shift in investment strategy by Bank of New York Mellon towards HSBC Holdings [1] - This change in stake could reflect confidence in HSBC's performance or strategic direction [1] - The transaction was reported by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting the transparency and regulatory oversight in such investment activities [1]