Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Q3 are down 2% quarter over quarter, similar to the setup seen in Q2 [2] - In Q2, consensus earnings expectations for the broader market (excluding technology) were about 2.5%, while realized earnings growth was 8.5%, indicating significant upside potential [3] Market Performance - The Dow and S&P indices experienced their best week since August, reflecting a positive sentiment in the market [1] - Despite some sectors underperforming, such as regional banks and oil, defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and gold are performing well [5] Sector Analysis - Regional banks have underperformed by more than 25 percentage points compared to large banks since early 2023, suggesting a preference for large banks as a safer investment [8] - The oil sector is facing challenges due to excess supply following the end of the US driving season, leading to a lack of allocation in energy assets [7] Investment Strategy - The strategy involves not completely rotating away from AI and tech stocks but also considering buying dips in banks and looking at industrials [9] - Gold is being recommended alongside tech stocks, driven by factors such as China's gold stockpiling and central bank diversification [10][14]

indices all coming off their second positive week in three. The Dow and the S&P with their best week since August. Joining us with his outlook this morning, HSBC chief multiasset strategist Max Kentner.Max, good to see you again. What do you think is driving some of this short-term enthusiasm. It's I mean, without data, we don't have as many Fed conversations, but certainly earnings are beginning to heat up.Yeah, I think it's uh really the earnings side of things because when we look at earnings expectation ...

indices all coming off their second positive week in three. The Dow and the S&P with their best week since August. Joining us with his outlook this morning, HSBC chief multiasset strategist Max Kentner.Max, good to see you again. What do you think is driving some of this short-term enthusiasm. It's I mean, without data, we don't have as many Fed conversations, but certainly earnings are beginning to heat up.Yeah, I think it's uh really the earnings side of things because when we look at earnings expectation ...

Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong residential property market is showing signs of mending investor sentiment, although analysts remain cautious about a full recovery due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1] - Investors accounted for 20% of the market's total transactions in 2025, with certain districts near universities potentially having a higher proportion of investor activity [1] Rental Yields - The average gross rental yield for mass residential units in Hong Kong is 3.7%, which is appealing to mainland buyers [2] - Hong Kong's residential rents increased in August, with the rental index rising by 1.12%, marking the largest increment in 14 months, bringing it close to the record high of 200.1 recorded in August 2019 [6] Interest Rates and Economic Factors - Investor interest is being driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts and potential rent increases, with HSBC offering a fixed-rate mortgage plan at 2.73% per annum [3] - Following the US Federal Reserve's easing of policy rates, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reduced the prime lending rates by 12.5 basis points on September 18 [4] Market Challenges - The Hong Kong economy faces challenges such as weak consumption, high vacancy rates in commercial buildings, and an oversupply of private residential units [5] - While rental yields may not be the most attractive incentive, lower residential flat prices could present a good entry point for investors seeking capital gains [6]

另外，渣打股价于10月17日下跌5.1%，跑输恒生指数及汇控分别2.6及3.1个百分点，可能是由于投资者 因美国信贷风险事件而采取避险情绪。该行认为，若股价进一步调整，将是买入机会，因渣打对美国市 场的直接敞口有限，且近年来加强了风险管理措施，导致风险敞口收缩。此外，金融市场波动可能对渣 打第四季度的市场收入构成正面影响。 摩根大通发布研报称，对汇丰控股(00005)及渣打集团(02888)均维持"增持"评级，但在六个月投资展望 上更偏好渣打，该行维持汇控目标价122港元，上调渣打目标价由162港元升至168港元。 该行认为，计划私有化恒生银行(00011)对汇丰控股短期影响已反映在股价中，投资者可能在管理层提 供更多量化指引前，不会计入长期协同效应。第三季度业绩将成为短期股价的驱动因素，交易费用及香 港商业地产敞口导致的信贷成本将是关键变动因素。 ...

另外，渣打股价于10月17日下跌5.1%，跑输恒生指数及汇控分别2.6及3.1个百分点，可能是由于投资者 因美国信贷风险事件而采取避险情绪。该行认为，若股价进一步调整，将是买入机会，因渣打对美国市 场的直接敞口有限，且近年来加强了风险管理措施，导致风险敞口收缩。此外，金融市场波动可能对渣 打第四季度的市场收入构成正面影响。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，对汇丰控股(00005)及渣打集团(02888)均维持"增持"评级， 但在六个月投资展望上更偏好渣打，该行维持汇控目标价122港元，上调渣打目标价由162港元升至168 港元。 该行认为，计划私有化恒生银行(00011)对汇丰控股短期影响已反映在股价中，投资者可能在管理层提 供更多量化指引前，不会计入长期协同效应。第三季度业绩将成为短期股价的驱动因素，交易费用及香 港商业地产敞口导致的信贷成本将是关键变动因素。 ...

智通财经APP讯，汇丰控股(00005)发布公告，于2025年10月17日斥资4798.65万英镑回购494.29万股股 份;斥资4.64亿港元回购456.64万股股份。 ...

格隆汇10月20日丨汇丰控股(00005.HK)公告，10月17日耗资4.64亿港元回购456.64万股，每股回购价 100.6-102.4港元。 ...

FF305 | | | 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： HSBC Holdings plc 滙豐控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年10月20日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00005 | 說明 | | 普通股(每股0.50美元) | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the multi-asset investment strategy as it heads into 2026, emphasizing the strength of the US economy despite recent tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions [2][18]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Fundamentals**: High-frequency US data indicates a reacceleration compared to bearish consensus expectations, with a sequential earnings decline expected in Q3 for SPX ex tech [2][48]. 2. **Impact of USD**: A weaker USD is anticipated to benefit US equities in the upcoming quarters, contributing to positive wealth effects and potential AI capital expenditure from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' [2][48]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: Current sentiment has shifted away from short-term sell signals, with machine learning indicators showing a risk-on stance. The overall positioning suggests potential upside for emerging market equities and local rates [3][70]. 4. **Risks Ahead**: The primary risk identified is the potential for higher long-end yields, which could arise if the market begins to price in an end to Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][50]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The report advocates for a risk-on approach, favoring US and emerging market equities over risky fixed income, while remaining underweight in investment-grade credit [5][10]. 6. **Earnings Expectations**: Bottom-up data suggests that Q3 earnings expectations are low, which may be easier to beat, particularly with the supportive backdrop of a weaker USD [48][50]. 7. **M&A Activity**: There is an expectation of increased M&A and IPO volumes in the coming quarters, supported by a strong deal pipeline and upward revisions in company guidance [46][50]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Concerns**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties are acknowledged as headwinds, yet the global equity market remains at an all-time high [18]. - **Consumer Spending**: Positive wealth effects are expected to bolster consumer spending, particularly among high-income households in the US [41][50]. - **Technical Indicators**: The valuation-adjusted momentum framework continues to favor equities, particularly in emerging markets, while sentiment indicators suggest a cautious optimism among long-only investors [56][61]. - **Japan Equities**: A tactical overweight in Japan equities is recommended, particularly in the banking sector, which is expected to recover from recent underperformance [74][76]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the overall positive outlook for US equities and the strategic positioning of multi-asset investments as they approach 2026.