Core Viewpoint - Hershey faces significant challenges due to rising cocoa prices and supply shortages, leading to a stock decline of over 40% in the past two years, but there are reasons for optimism regarding its future performance [1][4][12] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Hershey - Cocoa prices have surged from below $2,000 per metric ton in fall 2022 to around $10,000 per metric ton currently, significantly impacting margins [4][5] - The majority of cocoa is produced in countries like Ivory Coast, where crop yields have been affected by disease and adverse weather, contributing to the price increase [5] - Hershey's candy sales in North America accounted for 82% of its revenue in Q1 2025, but net sales fell 14% to $2.8 billion during the same period [5][6] Group 2: Reasons for Optimism - Hershey projects a net sales gain of at least 2% for 2025, indicating customer loyalty despite high cocoa prices [8] - The top three cocoa producers reported a 20% increase in supply this season, providing some relief to Hershey [8] - Hershey has maintained a dividend of $5.48 per share, with a 3.4% yield, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.3%, and has increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years [9][10] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Despite challenges, Hershey generated over $1.9 billion in free cash flow in 2024, allowing it to sustain its dividend payments [10] - The stock trades at 20 times earnings, below its five-year average P/E ratio of 25, suggesting potential for recovery as cocoa shortages ease [11]

Elevating your s'more game with more melt, more drip, more WOW HERSHEY, Pa., May 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Just in time for summer, there's a new treat in town: HERSHEY'S Milk Chocolate with Caramel bar. This delicious twist on the iconic HERSHEY'S Milk Chocolate bar adds new texture with a luscious caramel center to the classic – making snacking even sweeter, especially when there's a campfire around. The new HERSHEY'S Milk Chocolate with Caramel bar is now available at retailers nationwide in 6-packs for a ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the author's extensive experience in both equity and real estate markets, focusing on identifying long-only investment opportunities that provide safe and growing dividends [1] - The author has successfully sourced over $100 million in commercial real estate investments, showcasing a strong track record in the investment sector [1] - The background in economics and applied mathematics aids in providing timely analyses and strategies for enhancing investment portfolios [1] Company and Industry Summary - The author has a beneficial long position in the shares of HSY, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance [1] - The article reflects a commitment to sharing insights on market evolution and investment opportunities, which may benefit investors seeking wealth creation [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects net sales growth of at least 2% in 2025, aligning with its long-term growth algorithm [11] - The three-year cost savings target has been increased to $350 million from $300 million due to a transformation program aimed at operating more efficiently [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Lesser Evil is expected to enhance the company's presence in better-for-you snacking and extend offerings in ready-to-eat popcorn [3][4] - The company has introduced several new products, including Reese's Caramel and Shackalicious extra-large gummies, which have resonated well with consumers [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is actively monitoring tariff policies and optimizing its supply chain to mitigate the impact of tariffs on cocoa sourcing [13][14] - Elevated cocoa costs are being addressed through aggressive actions, including price increases on half of the US confection portfolio [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovation, expanding its chocolate variety brand portfolio, and enhancing seasonal execution to drive sales growth [11][12] - A partnership with VitaKey is being pursued to create a suite of health and wellness products, reflecting the ongoing health and wellness trends [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of product safety and quality, ensuring compliance with regulations while adapting to consumer behavior changes [6][9] - The leadership team is committed to maximizing value creation through bold actions and organizational changes [24] Other Important Information - The company has a proactive approach to product changes in anticipation of regulatory developments, maintaining consumer trust [8] - The upcoming film about Milton Hershey is set to be released in 2026, highlighting the company's commitment to social good [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why is the CEO and named executive officer compensation considered fair? - The compensation is aligned with performance, with 89% of CEO pay and 78% of named executive officer pay at risk, and the entire board approves the package [1][2] Question: What is the strategy behind acquiring Lesser Evil? - The acquisition aims to expand the company's presence in better-for-you snacking and complement its salty portfolio [3][4] Question: How is the company addressing recent regulatory changes regarding food dyes? - The company prioritizes product safety and compliance, actively monitoring regulatory developments [6][8] Question: How is the company adapting to health and wellness trends? - The company is adjusting its product portfolio to include low sugar and high protein options, reflecting consumer preferences [9][10] Question: What new strategies are being implemented for growth after a challenging 2020? - The strategy includes a focus on innovation, broadening investments in chocolate, and driving seasonal execution [11][12] Question: What impact do tariffs have on the business? - The company is closely monitoring tariff policies and optimizing its supply chain to mitigate impacts, particularly on cocoa sourcing [13][14] Question: How is the company managing elevated cocoa costs? - Aggressive actions are being taken, including price increases and a transformation program to enhance efficiency [15][16] Question: What new products can consumers expect? - New products include various innovative flavors and partnerships, with more exciting launches planned for the year [19][20]

Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Spending - The Trump tariff policy has severely impacted consumer confidence in the U.S., particularly among middle and low-income groups, leading to reduced spending [1] - Companies that primarily target middle-class consumers, such as McDonald's, General Motors, Harley-Davidson, and Hershey, are experiencing declining sales and profit pressures [1] - McDonald's reported its lowest sales in mature U.S. restaurants since the pandemic, attributing this to cautious spending by lower-income customers [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry Impact - Harley-Davidson's motorcycle sales fell by 24% year-over-year, with the CEO citing economic uncertainty and high interest rates as key factors [2] - General Motors, despite initial sales growth, has lowered its annual profit forecast by $2 billion to $3 billion due to tariff costs of $4 billion to $5 billion [2] - GM plans to increase North American prices by up to 1%, reversing an earlier expectation of a price decrease [2] Group 3: Confectionery Sector Challenges - Hershey reported a 15% decline in sales of candy, mints, and gum, with executives noting a growing consumer focus on value [3] - The company anticipates a loss of $15 million to $20 million in the current quarter due to tariffs on key raw materials like cocoa, which cannot be grown domestically [3] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Apple reported strong second-quarter sales driven by increased iPhone demand, potentially due to panic buying before new tariffs took effect [4] - Analysts warn that ongoing economic uncertainty poses real risks to both domestic and global economies, with signs of declining business and consumer confidence [4]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company reported first-quarter 2025 results with net sales declining 13.8% year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.09 exceeded expectations despite a 31.9% decline from the previous year [1][12] Financial Performance - Adjusted gross margin contracted to 41.2%, down 370 basis points due to higher commodity and manufacturing costs, unfavorable product mix, and lower volumes [3] - Selling, marketing, and administrative (SM&A) expenses decreased by 9.6% year over year, driven by reductions in advertising and consumer marketing spend, lower compensation, and transformation program savings [4] - Adjusted operating profit fell 29.4% to $608.1 million, with the operating margin contracting 480 basis points to 21.7% [5] Segment Analysis - North America Confectionery segment net sales were $2,300.1 million, a 15% decrease, primarily due to volume headwinds [6] - North America Salty Snacks segment reported net sales of $277.8 million, a 1% increase, with volume growth partially offset by a decline in net pricing [8] - International segment net sales declined 15.9% to $227.5 million, with a profit margin contraction of 320 basis points to 12.6% [10] Future Outlook - Management expects net sales to increase by at least 2% in 2025, with adjusted EPS projected between $6.00 and $6.18, reflecting a mid-30% decline from 2024 [12] - Anticipated effective tax rate is approximately 16%, with tariff expenses expected to be between $15 million and $20 million in the second quarter [13]

Core Insights - Hershey reported $2.81 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year decline of 13.8% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $2.09, down from $3.07 a year ago, with a surprise of +7.73% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.94 [1] Revenue Performance - International net sales were $227.48 million, exceeding the average estimate of $224.36 million, but reflecting a year-over-year decline of 15.9% [4] - North America net sales reached $2.58 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $2.57 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 13.6% [4] - North America Confectionery sales were $2.30 billion, matching the average estimate, but down 15% year-over-year [4] - North America Salty Snacks reported $277.80 million, surpassing the average estimate of $272.06 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 1% [4] Segment Income - North America Confectionery segment income was $696.37 million, above the average estimate of $684.23 million [4] - Unallocated corporate expenses showed a loss of $158.84 million, better than the average estimate of -$194.85 million [4] - North America Salty Snacks segment income was $41.85 million, slightly above the average estimate of $41.35 million [4] Stock Performance - Hershey's shares returned +2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which declined by -0.7% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hershey reported quarterly earnings of $2.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.94 per share, but down from $3.07 per share a year ago, indicating a 31.9% year-over-year decline in earnings [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $2.81 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.54% and down from $3.25 billion year-over-year, reflecting a 13.5% decrease [2] - Over the last four quarters, Hershey has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped revenue estimates only once [2] Stock Performance - Hershey shares have declined approximately 1.3% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 5.3% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Hershey is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.17 on revenues of $2.47 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.10 on revenues of $11.42 billion [7] - The outlook for the Food - Confectionery industry, where Hershey operates, is currently in the top 38% of Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable environment for stock performance [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects EPS to decline about 30% for the first half of 2025, with Q2 expected to be down less than Q1, which was down over 30% [13][14] - Gross margin for Q2 is expected to decrease by approximately 700 basis points, influenced by tariff components and increased SG&A expenses [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% increase in its business, with a 100 basis point gain in market share, particularly in the sweets category [22] - Seasonal chocolate is expected to be strong in the first half, with plans for low single-digit growth in everyday chocolate in the second half [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen strong growth in international markets, particularly in Brazil, with double-digit growth driven by Easter and innovation [98] - The competitive environment in the U.S. chocolate market remains stable, with no significant changes noted in competition from smaller players or private labels [124] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a snacking powerhouse, leveraging its core capabilities to maximize consumer reach and snacking occasions [80] - There is an emphasis on innovation and investment in iconic brands to meet consumer demands, with significant plans for new product launches in the fall [70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a weak consumer environment but notes that chocolate and salty snacks have held up well, with everyday chocolate pricing up 8% and volume down 4.5% [32] - The company remains optimistic about a path to earnings growth in 2026, even with current tariff levels, emphasizing the importance of mitigation actions [20][85] Other Important Information - The company does not anticipate a material impact from potential SNAP restrictions, as only about 2% of SNAP purchases are candy [48] - The company is not planning any buybacks for the year but remains open to reengaging in buybacks if the tariff headwind diminishes [99] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the risk of tariff expenses in Q2? - Management indicated that the unmitigated impact could be up to $100 million per quarter for Q3 and Q4, primarily from cocoa and Canadian retaliatory tariffs [10][11] Question: How should investors think about the magnitude of EPS decline in Q2? - EPS for the first half is expected to be down about 30%, with Q2 expected to be less impacted than Q1 due to strong net sales [14][15] Question: What is the outlook for balanced growth in 2026? - Management maintains a path to earnings growth next year, despite challenges, emphasizing the need for mitigation actions [20] Question: How is the company addressing changing consumer preferences? - The company has seen improvements in its instant consumable business and anticipates continued market share growth in the second half of the year [22] Question: What is the impact of cocoa prices on capacity expansion? - The new plant allows for greater agility and control over the supply chain, enabling the company to meet demand effectively despite high cocoa prices [42] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape in the U.S. chocolate market? - The competitive landscape remains stable, with no significant changes noted in competition from smaller players or private labels [124] Question: What is the company's approach to pricing in light of cocoa inflation? - Pricing is expected to increase in Q2 and Q3 as seasonal pricing and price pack architecture are implemented [128]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects EPS to decline about 30% for the first half of the year, with Q2 expected to be down less than Q1, which was down over 30% [12][13][14] - Gross margin for Q2 is expected to decrease by approximately 700 basis points, influenced by tariff components and increased SG&A expenses [14][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% increase in its business, with a 100 basis point increase in market share, particularly in the sweets category [23] - The company anticipates low single-digit growth in everyday chocolate for the second half of the year, driven by strong innovation [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen strong growth in international markets, particularly in Brazil, where organic sales grew double digits [98] - The competitive environment in international markets has normalized, aiding the company's performance [98] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating tariff impacts through various strategies, including lobbying and operational adjustments [10][9] - The company aims to continue growing its chocolate business while expanding into the salty snacks and sweets categories, targeting younger and more diverse demographics [79][78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a path to earnings growth next year, despite current tariff challenges [20][21] - The company is actively monitoring consumer sentiment and adapting its strategies to maintain market share amid a weak consumer environment [31][30] Other Important Information - The company is not planning any buybacks for the year but remains open to capital allocation opportunities depending on how the year unfolds [99] - The company is investing in innovation and marketing to ensure long-term growth, particularly in the chocolate category [113][114] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the risk of tariff expenses in Q3 and Q4? - Management indicated that unmitigated tariff impacts could reach up to $100 million per quarter, primarily from cocoa and Canadian retaliatory tariffs [8][9] Question: How should investors think about the magnitude of EPS decline in Q2? - Management expects EPS to be down about 30% for the first half, with Q2 showing a decline less than Q1 due to strong net sales [12][14] Question: What is the outlook for earnings growth next year? - Management maintains a positive outlook for earnings growth next year, despite the challenges posed by tariffs [20][21] Question: How is the company addressing consumer trends towards healthier eating? - Management noted that while consumer sentiment is weak, the chocolate category remains resilient, and they are focusing on premium and permissible products [31][30] Question: What is the competitive landscape in the U.S. chocolate market? - Management reported no significant changes in the competitive landscape, with smaller players softening and larger players increasing innovation [124] Question: How will the company approach pricing in light of cocoa prices? - Management confirmed that pricing will increase in Q2 and Q3 as part of their seasonal pricing strategy [128]