特朗普关税阴影笼罩，企业巨头纷纷拉响盈利预警。 "消费者采取'观望'态度并非不合逻辑，我们看到零售商的客流量有所下降"。 由于特朗普关税政策带来的成本飙升和消费者信心动摇， 美国企业巨头正密集下调盈利预期，覆盖消费品、航空、能源、电信、工业制造等多个领域，企业普 遍警告供应链受阻、成本增加，并对经济前景表示担忧。 虽然市场充斥着对经济衰退的担忧，但一种反向解读认为， 这或许是CEO们施压白宫的策略，反而可能促使政策转向，部分解释了近期美股市场反弹的现象。 FactSet的数据显示，截至统计时点，在标普500指数成份股公司中 ，已有超过90%的公司在第一季度财报电话会议上提及关税影响， "衰退"一词的提及率也从 去年第四季度的不足3%飙升至44%。 消费品巨头率先"缴械"，下调业绩指引 首当其冲的是消费品公司。本轮财报季中， 宝洁、百事，甚至墨西哥风味快餐连锁Chipotle等公司纷纷下调了全年业绩指引。 宝洁将其归咎于"更紧张的消费者短期内减少消费"，以及关税对其成本结构和盈利能力的影响。公司首席财务官Andre Schulten在电话会议上表示： 百事公司同样指出， "低迷的"消费者情绪以及关税是其下调全年 ...

Core Insights - The European Commission has approved guselkumab (TREMFYA®) for the treatment of moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis (UC), marking it as the first fully-human, dual-acting IL-23 inhibitor for this condition [1][2][4] - Guselkumab has shown statistically significant improvement in clinical remission and endoscopic normalization compared to placebo in clinical trials [3][6] Approval and Indications - Guselkumab is now approved for UC in addition to its existing indications for plaque psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis in the European Union [1][2] - The approval is based on data from the QUASAR program, which includes Phase 2b and Phase 3 studies evaluating its efficacy and safety in patients with inadequate response to conventional or biologic treatments [1][6] Clinical Efficacy - In the QUASAR maintenance study, 45% of patients receiving 100 mg of guselkumab every eight weeks achieved clinical remission at Week 44, compared to 19% in the placebo group [3] - Endoscopic normalization was achieved by 35% of patients on the 100 mg regimen and 34% on the 200 mg regimen, significantly higher than the 15% in the placebo group [3] Treatment Protocol - For UC, guselkumab is administered as a 200 mg induction dose intravenously at weeks 0, 4, and 8, followed by a maintenance dose of 100 mg subcutaneously every eight weeks [2][4] - An alternative maintenance regimen of 200 mg subcutaneously every four weeks may be considered for patients not showing adequate therapeutic benefit [2] Future Prospects - The European Commission is reviewing an expansion of the marketing authorization for guselkumab to include treatment for moderately to severely active Crohn's disease, with a decision expected later this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Focusing on stocks with a history of consistent dividend growth can provide better long-term investment value compared to just current yield [1] Group 1: Walmart - Walmart has shown modest gains of 3% this year, indicating its stability as a retail stock during market turmoil [3] - The company announced a 13% increase in its dividend, extending its growth streak to 52 consecutive years [4] - Despite a lower yield of 1% compared to the S&P 500 average of 1.5%, Walmart's potential for continued dividend increases and growth in advertising and online business makes it a compelling long-term investment [4][5] Group 2: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson has a longer dividend growth streak of 63 years and has seen a 9% increase in stock value this year [6] - The recent 4.8% dividend increase results in a yield of 3.3%, making it an attractive option for dividend investors [7] - Revenue has grown from $78.7 billion in 2021 to $88.8 billion in the past year, although there are uncertainties regarding talc powder lawsuits that could impact future dividends [7][8] Group 3: Procter & Gamble - Procter & Gamble boasts the longest dividend growth streak at 69 years, with a recent 5% increase announced in April [9] - The company reported sales of $84 billion in its most recent fiscal year, up from $82 billion the previous year, demonstrating stability through its 65 core brands [10] - Procter & Gamble's global presence and operational flexibility help mitigate risks related to tariffs, making it a safe long-term dividend stock [10][11]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all experienced double-digit percentage declines, with the Nasdaq entering a bear market with a loss exceeding 20% from its all-time high [2][3] - The recent declines have been characterized by their rapid velocity, with significant single-session point and percentage declines recorded [3] Tariff Policy Impact - President Trump's tariff policy has been a pivotal factor in the recent market downturn, with a 10% global tariff and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with negative trade balances with the U.S. announced [4][5] - The potential for tariffs to increase domestic goods prices and reignite inflation is a concern, as input tariffs could make U.S. products less competitive [6] - Tariffs may also harm trade relations and create uncertainty in the market, as the president frequently changes which products or countries are affected [7] Investment Opportunities - The current market volatility presents an opportunity for long-term investors to acquire stocks at discounted prices [8] - Johnson & Johnson offers a 3.31% yield and has increased its annual payout for 63 consecutive years, indicating a strong dividend history [9] - Johnson & Johnson holds a AAA credit rating, reflecting confidence in its ability to service and repay debts [10][11] - The company's operating model is expected to remain stable despite tariff concerns, as demand for healthcare products is consistent [12] - Johnson & Johnson's focus on novel-drug development and its historically inexpensive stock valuation (14 times forward-year earnings) make it an attractive investment [14][15] Sirius XM Holdings - Sirius XM Holdings provides a 5.36% yield and operates as a legal monopoly in satellite radio, giving it pricing power over competitors [16][17] - The company generates 76% of its net sales from self-pay subscriptions, making it less vulnerable to economic downturns compared to traditional radio operators reliant on advertising [19] - Sirius XM's stock is valued at 6.6 times forward-year earnings, representing a 55% discount to its average forward P/E multiple from 2019 to 2024 [20]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☑ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for the quarterly period ended March 30, 2025 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for the transition period from to Commission file number 1-3215 Johnson & Johnson (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) ...

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson announced promising 12-month data from the Phase 2b SunRISe-1 study, highlighting the effectiveness of TAR-200 monotherapy in treating high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC) [1][2] - The study results will be presented at the AUA 2025 Annual Meeting, emphasizing the potential of TAR-200 to provide a new treatment option for patients unresponsive to standard BCG therapy [1][3] Company Overview - TAR-200 is an investigational intravesical gemcitabine releasing system, with over 10,000 placements in clinical programs to date [5] - The FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation to TAR-200 for treating adult patients with BCG-unresponsive HR-NMIBC, indicating its potential significance in the oncology pipeline [5] Industry Context - Bladder cancer is one of the top ten most common cancers globally, affecting nearly one million people annually, with limited treatment options available for those who do not respond to initial BCG therapy [2][7] - High-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC) represents a significant challenge in urology, with radical cystectomy often being the standard treatment for patients who fail BCG therapy [7][8]

Group 1: U.S. Credit Ratings - In 2011, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the U.S. long-term credit outlook from AAA to AA+ due to budgetary issues, with Fitch downgrading U.S. credit again in 2023 and Moody's considering a similar move [1] - The 2024 fiscal deficit has ballooned to over $1.8 trillion, exacerbating debt and fiscal issues [1] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft holds AAA and Aaa ratings from S&P and Moody's, respectively, and has seen its stock fall about 12% this year, outperforming peers in the "Magnificent Seven" [4][6] - The company has a diverse business model across various tech sectors, including cloud, video games, and AI, and was an early investor in OpenAI [4] - Microsoft has a strong balance sheet with over $71.5 billion in cash and equivalents, approximately $40 billion in long-term debt, and equity exceeding $302 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio [6] Group 3: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson is the only other U.S. company with top credit ratings and recently announced an acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion, which may impact its credit rating due to increased debt [7] - The stock has performed well, up nearly 9% this year, and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $91.4 billion from $89.4 billion [8] - Johnson & Johnson's CFO indicated that the guidance includes a $400 million impact from tariffs, which could affect stock performance if trade tensions with China persist [9] - At the end of 2024, Johnson & Johnson had over $24 billion in cash, about $30.6 billion in long-term debt, and over $71 billion in total equity, maintaining a strong balance sheet despite the recent acquisition [10]

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (J&J) reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, with adjusted earnings of $2.77 per share, a 2.2% increase year-over-year, and sales of $21.89 billion, up 2.4% from the previous year [1] - The company raised its 2025 sales expectations by $700 million due to the acquisition of schizophrenia drug Caplyta, adjusting the guidance range to $91.0 billion-$91.8 billion [2] - Despite tariff-related costs estimated at $400 million impacting the business, J&J maintained its adjusted EPS guidance of $10.50-$10.70 [3][4] Financial Performance - J&J's Innovative Medicines segment showed growth, with sales rising 4.4% in Q1 2025 on an organic basis, despite challenges from the loss of exclusivity for Stelara [8] - The company expects to generate over $57 billion in sales from the Innovative Medicines segment in 2025, with anticipated growth of 5-7% from 2025 to 2030 [9] - The MedTech segment faced headwinds, particularly in China, due to government procurement programs and competitive pressures [15][16] Business Model and Strategy - J&J's diversified business model, with over 275 subsidiaries and significant R&D investment, positions it well to withstand economic cycles [6] - The separation of its Consumer Health business into Kenvue allows J&J to focus on its core pharmaceutical and medical device operations [7] - Recent acquisitions, including Intra-Cellular Therapies, enhance J&J's presence in the neurological and psychiatric drug markets [30] Challenges and Risks - The loss of patent exclusivity for Stelara is expected to significantly impact sales, with a 33.7% decline in Q1 2025 [12] - The company faces over 62,000 lawsuits related to its talc-based products, which could create ongoing legal and financial challenges [18][19] - J&J's stock has outperformed the industry year-to-date, but valuation remains a concern with a forward P/E ratio of 14.41, slightly below the industry average [20][24] Future Outlook - J&J considers 2025 a "catalyst year" for growth, expecting operational sales growth to accelerate in the second half of the decade [30] - The company has a promising R&D pipeline that could drive future growth, despite current challenges in the MedTech segment and the impact of the Stelara patent cliff [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - Johnson & Johnson continues to enhance shareholder value through consistent dividend increases, maintaining a strong financial profile and significant investments in growth opportunities [1][9]. Financial Health - Johnson & Johnson has a AAA bond rating, one of only two companies globally with such a top credit rating, surpassing the U.S. government [3]. - The company ended Q1 with $13.5 billion in net debt, consisting of $38.8 billion in cash against $52.3 billion in debt, which is manageable given its $370 billion market cap [4]. - In the most recent quarter, Johnson & Johnson generated $3.4 billion in free cash flow, sufficient to cover its $3 billion dividend payout [4]. Dividend Performance - The recent 4.8% increase in dividend payments extends the company's dividend growth streak to 63 years, placing it among the elite Dividend Kings [1]. - The forward dividend yield now stands at 3.4%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's yield of 1.4%, making it an attractive option for passive income [2]. Cash Flow and Investments - Last year, the company produced $20 billion in free cash flow, a $1.6 billion increase from 2023, despite higher litigation costs and taxes [5]. - Johnson & Johnson invested $17 billion in R&D last year, representing 19.4% of its sales, and continued this trend with $3.2 billion in Q1 [6]. - The company has made substantial acquisitions, spending over $14 billion in Q1 to acquire Intra-Cellular Therapies, alongside previous acquisitions totaling over $15 billion [7]. Growth Outlook - Johnson & Johnson aims for a 5% to 7% compound annual growth rate in operational sales from 2025 to 2030, which is expected to drive earnings and free cash flow higher [8]. - The company's robust free cash flow and strong balance sheet support its ability to invest in R&D and acquisitions, positioning it for continued growth [9].

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2025 results, continuing its streak of earnings beats and exceeding revenue estimates [1][3] - The company raised its revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 amid tariff challenges and increased its quarterly dividends [1][5][6] Financial Performance - JNJ's first-quarter earnings per share were $2.77, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.57 and improving 2.2% year-over-year [3] - Revenues grew 2.4% year-over-year to $21.89 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.62 billion [3] - Innovative Medicines sales advanced 4.2%, while MedTech device sales jumped 4.1% [4] - Sales of Darzalex, a blood cancer treatment, increased 20% to $3.2 billion, and Xarelto sales rose 33% year-over-year to $690 million [4] - However, Stelara sales declined 34% to $1.6 billion due to new biosimilars entering the market, and Invega Sustenna sales dropped 15% to $903 million [4] Revenue Guidance - JNJ raised its revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 to $91.0-$91.8 billion from $89.2-$90.0 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 2.6%-3.6% [5] - The new guidance reflects the addition of Caplyta following the $14.6 billion acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies [5] - The company maintained its adjusted earnings per share guidance in the range of $10.50-$10.70, accounting for tariff costs and dilution from the acquisition [5] Dividend Increase - JNJ increased its quarterly dividend to $1.30 per share from $1.24 per share, marking the 63rd consecutive year of dividend increases [6] - The annual dividend now totals $5.20 per share compared to the previous $4.96 per share [6] ETFs with JNJ Exposure - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs with significant allocations to JNJ, including iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF (IHE), iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH), First Trust Nasdaq Pharmaceuticals ETF (FTXH), Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), and VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) [2] - JNJ accounts for 24.5% of IHE, 7.2% of IYH, 7.8% of FTXH, 7.4% of XLV, and 6.7% of PPH [7][9][12][13][15]