Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's chief economist Michael Feroli's team now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, revising their previous forecast of a delay until January [1][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - JPMorgan indicates that comments from key Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President John Williams, have prompted a reassessment of the rate cut timeline [1] - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December has risen to nearly 90%, significantly up from less than 30% a week prior [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Williams noted that as the labor market cools, the downside risks to employment have increased, while the upside risks to inflation have diminished, suggesting room for further rate cuts in the near term [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 9 and 10, with JPMorgan predicting rate cuts in both December and January [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced a 4% increase over the past four days, leading to a temporary silence among bearish warnings of an impending market correction. The bullish sentiment is returning among investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is projected to continue its strong upward trend through 2026, according to JPMorgan Private Bank [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen 16% year-to-date, with the previous two years showing increases of at least 23% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - JPMorgan's baseline forecast suggests that economic growth, strong corporate earnings, and steady advancements in artificial intelligence will drive the S&P 500 index to 7,400 points next year, representing approximately a 9% upside from current levels [1] - If favorable conditions persist, the index could potentially soar to 8,200 points, indicating a possible 20% increase from now until the end of next year [1]

Group 1: Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the S&P 500 index could reach a base target of 7500 points by the end of 2026, with potential to exceed 8000 points under further Federal Reserve easing conditions, driven by an AI supercycle and a resilient U.S. economy [1] - The Nifty 50 index in India is expected to rise to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, approximately a 15% increase from current levels, supported by tax cuts and interest rate reductions [5] Group 2: Economic Drivers - Recent tax cuts and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India are expected to boost domestic demand, with a 25 basis point rate cut likely in December [7] - The Indian stock market's valuation has fallen below long-term averages after a period of underperformance, providing a supportive backdrop for recovery [7] Group 3: Trade Relations - The likelihood of a U.S.-India trade agreement is high, which could lead to a short-term revaluation of the stock market, particularly benefiting sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals [8][9] - The potential removal of a 25% punitive tariff on imports from India could enhance investor confidence and attract foreign capital inflows [8] Group 4: Sector Preferences - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on sectors such as materials, financials, consumer goods, healthcare, real estate, defense, and power, while holding a "underweight" stance on IT and pharmaceuticals [10] - Industries benefiting from domestic consumption growth and infrastructure development are expected to perform better, with financials poised to gain from the interest rate cycle and increased corporate debt demand [10]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that due to severe supply surplus, Brent crude oil prices may drop to the $30 range by 2027, highlighting significant supply-demand imbalance in the global energy market [1] - Goldman Sachs advises investors to short oil immediately, forecasting that WTI crude oil prices will average $53 per barrel in 2026 due to a daily supply surplus of 2 million barrels [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major investment banks indicate that large-scale supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers in the Americas continues to flood the market, contributing to downward price pressure [1] - Different institutions provide varying timelines for market rebalancing, with Morgan Stanley suggesting that Brent crude could fall to $30 by 2027, while Goldman Sachs believes the market may rebalance by 2027 after a final wave of supply in 2026 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Recent diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Ukraine may ease geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to a relaxation of sanctions against Russia, which could further increase supply pressure in an already oversupplied market [4] - Analysts are closely monitoring the developments of these negotiations, as a peace agreement could allow more Russian energy supplies to enter the global market [4]

上周延迟发布的9月就业报告公布后，摩根大通原本预测12月利率将维持不变。目前摩根大通预计美联 储将在12月和明年1月分别进行两次25基点的降息。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月27日电 摩根大通经济学家改变预测，认为美联储将于12月启动降息，这逆转了该行 一周前关于政策制定者将推迟降息至明年1月的判断。 以该行美国首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利为首的研究团队周三表示，多位美联储重量级官员（特别是纽 约联储主席威廉姆斯）支持近期降息的表态，促使他们重新评估形势。 "我们重新将最终降息时点锁定在明年1月，"费罗利在致客户报告中写道，"虽然下次FOMC会议结果仍 存变数，但我们认为最新一轮美联储官员表态已使天平倾向12月降息。" 编辑：马萌伟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing bullish trend in the US stock market, particularly driven by AI-related stocks, with optimistic projections for future growth in both the market and specific companies like OpenAI and Nvidia [2][4][8]. Market Performance - US stock indices opened slightly higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.53%, S&P 500 up 0.47%, and Nasdaq up 0.53% [3]. - Nvidia's stock saw a near 3% increase initially, reflecting positive sentiment in the tech sector [4]. AI Sector Insights - OpenAI's recent announcement predicts that by 2028, the number of paid subscribers for ChatGPT will exceed 220 million, generating nearly $200 billion in annual subscription revenue [2][5]. - CoreWeave and Oracle, both associated with OpenAI, experienced significant stock price increases, with CoreWeave rising over 7% and Oracle over 6% [2][5]. Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's report expresses optimism about the US economy's resilience and the ongoing AI supercycle, suggesting that the S&P 500 could surpass 8000 points by 2026 under certain conditions [2][8]. - The report anticipates a 34% increase in capital expenditure for 30 major AI stocks next year, driven by a "fear of becoming obsolete" mentality among businesses and governments [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are around 85% [6]. - Recent labor market data shows a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient job market despite concerns about employment prospects [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish stance on technology, media, telecommunications, utilities, and defense sectors, while expecting the banking and pharmaceutical sectors to outperform the market [9]. - The report emphasizes that the potential for profit growth related to deregulation and AI productivity gains remains underestimated by investors [9].

多地企业表示招聘变得容易，临时工需求下降，暗示劳动力需求进一步走软。薪资增速保持温和，不少 地区称入职薪资趋于持平。 不过，在裁员讨论增多的情况下，美国初请失业金数据仍保持韧性。截至11月22日当周，初请人数下降 6000至21.6万人，为2月以来最低水平；持续申领人数虽略升至196万人，但仍在今年正常波动区间内。 褐皮书还显示，全国消费者支出减弱，多地零售及非必需品消费放缓。部分零售商将疲软归因于政府停 摆，汽车经销商提到，由于联邦税收抵免到期，电动车销售明显下滑。 美联储最新发布的褐皮书显示，消费者支出疲软、就业市场动能减退，进一步强化了市场对美联储12月 降息的预期。在政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟发布、且美联储即将在本周六进入议息前静默期的背景 下，这份报告成为政策制定者与投资者在12月9至10日会议前为数不多的重要参考信号。 智通财经APP获悉，褐皮书报告指出，多数地区就业"略有下降"，较此前呈现的稳健增长出现明显变 化。纽约、达拉斯、明尼阿波利斯等地区企业均报告小幅减员。大规模裁员较少，但招聘活动也趋于保 守。 在此背景下，摩根大通经济学家团队最新表示，他们预计美联储将在12月进行降息，此前曾短暂判 ...

【摩根大通预计美联储12月将降息 改变之前按兵不动的预测】智通财经11月27日电，摩根大通经济学 家预计美联储下个月将降息，改变了之前认为降息将推迟到明年1月份的预测。由美国首席经济学家 Michael Feroli领衔的团队周三表示，来自关键美联储官员——尤其是纽约联储行长John Williams——支 持短期内降息的言论，促使他们重新评估降息路径。因政府停摆而姗姗来迟的9月份非农就业报告上周 发布后，摩根大通曾预测美联储12月份将维持利率不变。 美联储将于12月9日和10日在华盛顿举行货币 政策会议。摩根大通目前预测美联储将在12月和1月均降息25个基点。 ...

来源：滚动播报 摩根大通调整预测，认为美联储将在 12 月降息。 ...

“JPMorgan Chase threw me out of the bank,” says Bitcoin app Strike CEO Jack Mallers after the bank abruptly closed his personal accounts. When he asked why, he says the only answer was, “We aren’t allowed to tell you.” Mallers then framed the letter. https://t.co/I5W2D0qW0E ...