Core Insights - The article focuses on the JPMorgan Core Plus Bond ETF, identified by the ticker symbol JCPB, which is managed by JP Morgan [1] Fund Objective - The primary goal of the JCPB ETF is to provide investors with exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds, aiming for total return through income and capital appreciation [1]

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Tariff Impact & Inflation - JP Morgan 认为，行业特定的 Section 232 关税可能比国家特定的关税对有效关税率产生更大的影响，预计稳定在 22% 左右 [1] - 总体而言，预计关税总成本的约 60% 将转嫁给消费者，而公司承担约 40% [2] - 关税成本可能会在今年剩余时间内增加，但明年可能会被减税的一些好处所抵消 [3] - 商品成本可能会继续上涨，但服务领域可能会出现转变，有助于明年年底通胀下降 [4][5] - 增长和通胀通常朝着相同的方向发展，这可能会使明年上半年的通胀保持在高位 [5] Monetary Policy & Labor Market - 如果明年通胀保持在高位，增长加速，即使只是在较短的时间内，可能会进一步将降息推迟到下半年，并且总体而言，降息幅度可能会低于市场预期 [7] - 劳动力市场可能存在更大的复杂情况，明年上半年如果增长略高，可能会延长劳动力市场的寿命 [8][9] - 税收减免将在很大程度上帮助消费，但如果劳动力市场总体疲软，则存在疑问 [9] - 小型企业面临的十大业务问题中，利率和融资成本排名第 10，而劳动力质量排名第 2，劳动力质量高于劳动力成本 [12] - 人口结构变化正在减缓劳动力供应，需求也在变得更加疲软 [13]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通策略师表示，如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普成功任命一位关键成员进入美联 储，那么美国国债收益率曲线可能会从四年来最宽的水平进一步变陡。周四，美国5年期和30年期国债收益 率之差扩大，此前特朗普宣布，提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事一职，以填补美 联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒突然辞职留下的空缺。该任命需经参议院批准。此外有报道称，美联储理事克 里斯托弗·沃勒有望接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 由于上周就业数据不佳，货币市场加大了对美联储降息的押注力度。目前，掉期交易预计美联储9月份降息 25个基点的可能性为95%，并预计年底前至少还会再次降息一次。交易员们也在关注下周公布的美国通胀数 据。经济学家预计7月份通胀率将从6月份的0.3%降至0.2%。 以杰伊·巴里为首的摩根大通分析师团队周四晚些时候发布报告称："米兰一直认为，特朗普政府的贸易、移 民和放松管制政策都会抑制通胀。从这个角度来看，这支持了美联储采取更为鸽派的政策，也解释了今天 所观察到的收益率曲线陡化现象。" 周五，美国30年期国债收益率稳定在4.82%。 美债收益率曲线恐进一步趋陡 利差目前维持在略高于1 ...

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Group 1: Retirement Savings Investment - The first executive order signed by President Trump aims to allow ordinary Americans to invest their retirement savings in private market assets, including private equity, cryptocurrencies, and private real estate, opening new opportunities for Wall Street investment firms [1][2] - This initiative provides hedge funds and private equity firms with access to a significant pool of funds similar to 401(k) retirement plans, which they have long sought [2] - However, investing in private markets typically involves higher fees and lower liquidity, raising uncertainty about employers' willingness to include private market options in 401(k) plans [2][3] - Concerns have been raised regarding potential lawsuits and regulatory pressures on asset management firms if these new investments fail to deliver expected returns [2] Group 2: Banking and "De-Banking" Focus - The second executive order focuses on the issue of "de-banking," particularly concerning large banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, which have been accused of excluding certain clients based on "reputation risk" [1][4] - The order aims to investigate whether banks are discriminating against clients for political or religious reasons and to impose disciplinary actions on those found guilty [4] - The directive also instructs regulatory agencies to cease using "reputation risk" as a justification for client exclusion, especially in politically motivated decisions [4] - Some Republican figures have pointed out that banks often use vague legal risks or internal rules to justify their political decisions [4]

US Rates Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. Global Macro Research August 4th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIM6lugQv_pp1nlvYdrybTZAsKyAHAdSsVxQ}]} Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Overall summary Hold 5s20s steepeners as low-beta way to position for lower front-end yields. We anticipate Treasury will begin a mul ...

钛媒体App 8月8日消息，摩根大通预计美联储将在2025年9月开始降息三次，每次25个基点，而此前的 预测是12月降息一次。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in 2025, starting with three rate cuts of 25 basis points each from September, whereas the previous forecast anticipated a single cut in December [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Forecast** - JPMorgan predicts three rate cuts of 25 basis points each starting in September 2025 [1] - The previous forecast was for a single rate cut in December 2025 [1]

摩根大通认为，2025年上半年由美国"提前采购"和科技投资驱动的全球资本开支热潮，正面临挑战，预计将在下半年显著降温。 据追风交易台消息，8月7日摩根大通研报显示，2025年一季度全球资本支出飙升14%，但下半年增长率预计将骤降至0-3%，其中美国资本支出甚至可能 收缩5%。 其他发达经济体表现分化：英国（+49%）和加拿大（+23%）也录得了惊人的增长，但欧元区和澳大利亚则出现了温和的季度萎缩。 在新兴市场，印度和中国台湾地区受益于科技周期和AI驱动的需求，资本开支同样强劲，而韩国则出现收缩。 然而，摩根大通的追踪模型（Nowcaster）显示，尽管第二季度全球资本开支预计仍将保持约8.8%的稳健增长，但增长动力已出现放缓迹象，为下半年的 降温埋下了伏笔。 摩根大通的预测模型显示，二季度全球资本支出仍将录得5.6%的强劲年化增长，并在6月份保持稳健的月度增长势头。然而，7月份全球投资商品PMI的 大幅下跌预示着年中增长动能的减弱。 报告指出，随着美国"提前采购"效应的消退，企业利润增长停滞、高企的利率以及悲观的商业情绪这三大逆风因素将共同作用，预计全球资本开支增长将 急剧放缓。 上半年的强劲：一次由美国主导 ...