Summary of Global FX Outlook 2026 Company and Industry - **Company**: J.P. Morgan - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Key Points and Arguments 1. FX Outlook for 2026 - The outlook is bearish on the dollar in the first half of 2026 due to Fed asymmetries, twin deficits, and global recovery, but weakness is constrained by US resiliency [6][37][38] - Expected currency levels include EUR/USD at 1.20, USD/JPY at 164, and USD/CNY at 7.05 [6] 2. Drivers of FX Returns in 2025 - DM FX returns were influenced by external and fiscal balances, while global FX/EM returns were primarily driven by carry [5][8] - Liberation Day marked a significant weakening of the dollar, leading to a pro-risk environment characterized by strong performance in global/EM carry trades [5][10] 3. Lessons from 2025 - The dollar's strength was short-lived, with key risks materializing earlier than expected, leading to a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment [4][10] - Fiscal differentiation played a crucial role, with the Euro's rise linked to positive German fiscal developments [14] 4. Macro Landscape for 2026 - The macro environment is characterized by synchronized central bank inactivity, ongoing fiscal policy focus, and the impact of AI adoption [6][12] - The US policy mix remains a source of FX risk, with a focus on fiscal policy rather than tariffs [6][12] 5. AI and Market Dynamics - AI is expected to influence markets through financial and macro channels, potentially supporting US growth but also reviving de-dollarization discussions [29] - The macro effects of AI are still developing, with job displacement not yet materializing significantly in labor market data [29] 6. Fiscal Policy and Tariff Volatility - Fiscal policy surprises are anticipated, particularly in the US, with potential for stimulus surprises due to mid-term elections [28] - Tariff volatility is expected to decrease in 2026, although some tactical volatility may arise from IEEPA rulings [60][67] 7. Dollar's Carry Appeal - The dollar's nominal carry appeal remains high despite Fed easing, influencing asset owners' FX hedging decisions [50] - The dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by various macro scenarios, including potential Fed hikes in 2027 [49][50] 8. Risks and Scenarios for the Dollar - The dollar could weaken if US growth moderates sharply or if the Fed's reaction function turns dovish amid political pressures [48][39] - Conversely, a stronger US growth scenario could lead to a bullish outlook for the dollar [48][58] 9. Conclusion on FX Trends - The FX landscape heading into 2026 is marked by lower dispersion across style factors, indicating less conviction on differentiating currency returns [30] - High-yielding currencies are expected to perform better in a procyclical growth environment, while low-yielders may lag [6][37] Other Important Content - The relationship between equities and FX is complex, with significant implications for the AI equity-USD link in the upcoming year [15] - The evolving dollar smile indicates that US-RoW relative cyclical dynamics are becoming more influential on the dollar's performance [15]

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research 17 November 2025 2026 US Economic Outlook: Through a glass, darkly Table 1: US economic forecasts | | Forecasts | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 1Q27 2Q27 3Q27 4Q27 2025 | | | | | | | | | | | 2026 | 2027 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | %q4/q4 %q4/q4 %q4/q4 | | | Real GDP (%q/q, saar) | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global FX (Foreign Exchange) Market** outlook for 2026, emphasizing a **bearish dollar** and a **bullish beta** environment. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bearish Dollar Outlook**: The dollar is expected to have a bearish bias in the first half of 2026 due to factors such as Federal Reserve asymmetries, twin deficits, and a global recovery, although its weakness may be constrained by US economic resilience [6][8][17]. 2. **Currency Predictions**: Key currency forecasts include EUR/USD at 1.20, USD/JPY at 164, and USD/CNY at 7.05 [6][8]. 3. **Global Economic Recovery**: The macroeconomic landscape in 2026 is characterized by procyclicality, synchronized central bank inactivity, and a focus on fiscal policy and AI adoption impacts [6][8][36]. 4. **High Beta/Yielding Currencies**: Preference is given to high beta and yielding currencies, with expectations that DM (Developed Markets) high-yielders like NOK and AUD will benefit from growth pick-up [6][8][36]. 5. **FX Carry Trades**: FX carry trades are anticipated to perform well amid low volatility and central bank inactivity, with a focus on carry-efficient hedges for risk markets [6][8][36]. 6. **US Policy Risks**: US policy remains a significant source of FX risk, with a shift in focus from tariffs to fiscal policy and the Fed's framework [6][8][64]. 7. **AI Impact**: The adoption of AI is expected to influence FX markets, with carry trades linked to AI commodity exporters like AUD and CLP [6][8][52]. 8. **Fiscal Differentiation**: Fiscal differentiation is highlighted as a critical factor, with CHF showing the best fiscal metrics among reserve currencies [49][132]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The dollar's performance has historically correlated with net foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than net equity inflows, indicating a complex relationship between currency strength and investment flows [54][90]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: FX volatility is expected to remain subdued, but historical patterns suggest limited further downside from current low levels [44][46]. 3. **Trade Recommendations**: Specific trade recommendations include maintaining USD shorts, buying AUD/USD, and various options strategies involving EUR/GBP and NOK/JPY [9][8][17]. 4. **Growth Forecasts**: The growth forecasts for 2026 are skewed to the upside, driven by the lagged effects of prior global monetary easing and easier financial conditions [18][19]. 5. **Structural Issues**: The US faces unresolved macro issues, such as the divergence between resilient GDP growth and a softening labor market [30][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and risks in the FX market for 2026.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Fixed Income Markets - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Securities plc Key Themes and Core Views - **Baseline Macro View**: Growth is expected to run at or above potential across most developed markets (DM), with inflation declining but remaining sticky above target in several jurisdictions [8][18] - **Central Bank Actions**: - Most DM central banks are expected to either maintain current rates or conclude easing cycles in the first half of 2026. - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points (bp) and the Bank of England (BoE) by 75 bp, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to hike by 50 bp by the third quarter of 2026 [8][18] - **Yield Forecasts**: - 10-Year U.S. Treasuries (UST) forecasted at 4.35%, 10-Year Bunds at 2.75%, and 10-Year Gilts at 4.75% by the fourth quarter of 2026 [8][18][21] - **Market Risks**: The U.S. presents the widest risk distribution due to personnel and fiscal dominance issues, adding uncertainty to the Fed's outlook [8][18] Trading Recommendations - **Treasuries Strategy**: - A recommendation for a 50:50 weighted 2s/5s/10s belly-cheapening fly, anticipating cheapening in the 5-Year sector as the Fed goes on hold in the second half of 2026 [8][18] - **Cross-Market Divergences**: - Suggested buying payers on 5-Year SOFR rates funded by selling payers on 5-Year EUR rates and buying calls on June 2026 SONIA vs SOFR [8][18] - **Euro Area Strategy**: - Expectation for 10-Year Bund yields to remain range-bound, with a forecast of 2.65% by mid-2026 and 2.75% by year-end [9][19] - **UK Strategy**: - Anticipation of the BoE easing by 25 bp in December and two more cuts in the first half of 2026, targeting a Bank Rate of 3.25% [10][18] - **Scandinavian Markets**: - Both Riksbank and Norges Bank expected to stay on hold, with a recommendation for Jun26/Dec26 SEK FRA curve flattener as a carry trade [11][18] - **U.S. Market Dynamics**: - Expectation for yields to remain range-bound initially, with a rebound anticipated once the Fed goes on hold in spring 2026 [13][18] Additional Insights - **Inflation and Economic Resilience**: Despite inflation being stickier than expected, DM growth has shown surprising resilience, with recent data indicating disconnects between consumer sentiment and capital expenditure [22][18] - **Market Volatility**: Increased volatility is expected in the second half of 2026, particularly in France as the 2027 presidential election approaches [19][18] - **Interest Rate Forecasts**: - Detailed interest rate forecasts for various countries, including the U.S., UK, Euro area, Japan, and Australia, with specific rates and changes outlined for 2026 [16][21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook, highlighting the anticipated economic conditions, central bank actions, trading strategies, and potential risks in the market.

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Private Bank predicts that the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its strong return trend into 2026, with a forecasted rise to 7,400 points next year, representing a 9% increase from current levels, and potentially reaching 8,200 points, indicating a 20% increase by year-end [1][4]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index has risen 16% this year and at least 23% in the previous two years [1]. - JPMorgan's investment strategy leaders view the recent market volatility, which saw the S&P 500 drop by up to 5% from its October record high, as a sign that the market is not in a typical bubble state [4]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley also project strong growth for the S&P 500, with estimates of 8,000 points by 2026, reflecting an 18% increase, and 7,800 points in one year, respectively [6]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Technology and utilities are identified as key investment sectors due to their expected benefits from AI advancements [4]. - Healthcare, industrials, and financial sectors are also anticipated to perform well due to market expansion, regulatory easing, and M&A activities [4]. - The company suggests including buffers like infrastructure, tangible assets, and gold in investment portfolios to hedge against inflation [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The company acknowledges potential risks, including a scenario where the S&P 500 could drop to approximately 4,600 points, a 32% decline, if AI themes and the economy falter [6]. - Despite the risks, the current strong corporate earnings and economic performance support a positive outlook for continued profit-driven growth in the S&P 500 [6].

Manoukian表示："我们坚信，我们正处于一种更为结构性的转变之中，公共市场与私人市场的差异正变 得越来越小。如果想要以主题化的方式进行投资，避免涉足私人市场，那实际上就是将自己与人工智能 生态系统中最具活力和创新性的领域隔离开来。" 小摩乐观的预测一出，却恰逢华尔街因有关人工智能的种种担忧以及经济疲软的迹象而人心惶惶之际。 过去四天里，美股上涨了4%。这一涨势平息了那些警告称股市即将出现全面回调的看空者们的言论， 而如今，美股多头的乐观情绪又开始高涨起来。 对于小摩私人银行投资策略美国负责人Jacob Manoukian和全球投资策略的联合负责人Stephen Parker而 言，近期导致标普500指数从10月的纪录高位下跌多达5%的市场动荡，证实了市场并未处于通常与泡沫 相关的那种狂热状态之中。 Parker在周二的一次采访中表示："我们的许多客户目前手头都有大量现金。对于这些客户而言，我们 与他们进行的为期12至18个月的交流内容是，这是一次绝佳的机会。我们将其视为一个买入良机，同时 我们也明白这并不一定就是最低点。" 该行认为，在2026年，技术和公用事业将是重点投资领域，因为这两类行业将受益于人 ...

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钛媒体App 11月27日消息，摩根大通预计，美联储将于2025年12月降息25个基点（此前预测为不降 息）。（广角观察） ...

来源：滚动播报 摩根大通预计，美联储将在2025年12月降息25个基点，此前该行预测不会降息。 ...

Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, highlighted on Wednesday the significance of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (NYSE:JPM) move to offer a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) -backed bond.Scaramucci Cheers JPMorgan’s MoveIn an X post, Scaramucci hailed it as a “huge” milestone and wondered why there hasn’t been much talk about it.“I don't think people are fully understanding how huge it is that JP Morgan is now offering a Bitcoin back Bond,” the Bitcoin bull said.See Also: Elizabeth Warren, Jack Reed Call For P ...