交易员们目前预计美联储将在7月降息25个基点，年底前将再降息一次。在本周早些时候强于预期的就 业数据公布前，市场几乎笃定美联储会在6月降息。周五亚洲交易时段，2年期美债收益率小幅涨2个基 点至3.47%，此前一个交易日下跌约5个基点。 一些人士则不同意摩根大通的观点。 对冲基金经理David Einhorn押注沃什领导的美联储将比市场当前预期"更大幅"降息。这位Greenlight Capital的联合创始人表示，他已买入隔夜担保融资利率期货，押注若美联储更激进地降低借贷成本，相 关合约将上涨。 摩根大通预计，美国1月剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI "稳定"上涨0.39%，主要受年初价格压力以及联 邦政府停摆遗留影响逐渐消退影响。彭博经济研究估计的涨幅为0.31%，与市场普遍预期相符。 摩根大通策略师建议将抛售2年期美国国债作为一项"战术性"交易，理由是经济增长前景稳健将使美联 储难以大幅降息。 "经济基础稳固，凯文·沃什即便获得确认并接任美联储主席一职，想要左右联邦公开市场委员会的决策 也将面临挑战，" Jay Barry领导的策略师团队在一份报告中写道。 这家华尔街银行的观点发布在周五关键美国通胀报告出炉 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通策略团队建议将做空两年期美国国债作为一项战术性交易，理由是美国经 济增长前景依然稳固，将使美联储难以大幅降息。 以Jay Barry为首的策略团队在报告中写道："美国经济基本面依然强劲，一旦凯文·沃什获得确认并接任 美联储主席，他将很难按自身意愿主导联邦公开市场委员会的决策。" "我们认为，短端收益率很难从当前水平大幅下行，"摩根大通策略师在报告中总结道。 目前交易员预计美联储将在7月降息25个基点，年底前再降一次。在本周早些时候强于预期的就业数据 公布前，市场几乎完全定价6月将实施降息。周五亚洲交易时段，两年期美债收益率小幅攀升2个基点至 3.47%，此前一个交易日该收益率曾下跌约5个基点。 也有市场人士持不同观点。 对冲基金经理David Einhorn押注，沃什领导下的美联储降息幅度将"远超"当前市场预期。这位 Greenlight Capital联合创始人表示，他已买入担保隔夜融资利率期货，预期若美联储大幅降息，该品种 将迎来反弹。 该华尔街大行的观点出炉之际，本周五即将发布的关键美国通胀报告有望为美联储后续行动提供新线 索。任何物价压力趋缓的信号都可能刺激对政策敏感的短期 ...

asbe/iStock via Getty Images By Ivan Castano Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price may have fallen from last year's highs, but that's not stopping a slew of ETFs from courting investors in hopes that the king of crypto will rebound this year. Regulatory tailwinds, such as the SEC's recent passage of generic listings standards (GLS) and the upcoming The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, are also expected to boost investor interest in these funds, which raised a whopping $47.2 billion last year, despite $5 ...

Core Argument - The article discusses the profound impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market, suggesting that the U.S. is unprepared for the potential disruptions it may cause to employment and economic stability [1]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Trends - The establishment of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) aimed to measure labor conditions and create fair outcomes amidst industrial changes, highlighting the importance of data in understanding economic realities [5][6]. - The BLS has documented significant job growth in various sectors, such as a 907% increase in mobile food service jobs since 2000, indicating a dynamic labor market [6]. - However, the BLS is limited in its predictive capabilities, particularly regarding the impact of emerging technologies like AI on the workforce [7]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Employment - AI is rapidly transforming job functions, enabling tasks to be completed more efficiently than ever before, which raises concerns about job displacement [8][9]. - Predictions from industry leaders suggest that AI could lead to a 10% to 20% increase in unemployment rates and potentially eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next decade [10]. - A Reuters/Ipsos survey indicates that 71% of Americans fear AI will lead to permanent job losses, reflecting widespread anxiety about the future of work [9]. Group 3: Economic Resilience and Job Creation - Economists argue that capitalism has a strong resilience, often leading to job creation following technological advancements, as seen with ATMs and software like Excel [8]. - The BLS forecasts a 3.1% employment growth rate over the next decade, which, while lower than previous years, still represents the addition of 5 million jobs [8]. Group 4: The Role of Policy and Corporate Responsibility - There is a growing concern that corporate leaders are prioritizing automation and efficiency over employee welfare, leading to potential mass layoffs [22][23]. - The article suggests that CEOs are under pressure to demonstrate the benefits of AI quickly, often resulting in job cuts rather than exploring ways to integrate AI while supporting their workforce [22][23]. - Proposals for policies such as retraining programs and a robot tax to support displaced workers are discussed, but there is skepticism about their implementation [33][28]. Group 5: Political and Social Implications - The political landscape is characterized by a lack of proactive measures to address the challenges posed by AI, with many lawmakers adopting a hands-off approach [26][27]. - The article emphasizes the need for a coordinated response to the potential upheaval caused by AI, suggesting that without intervention, the consequences could be severe for both the economy and society [30][31].

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro discusses President Trump's tariff policy following the House vote to end levies on Canadian imports. He also says JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon needs to cap credit card interest rates. ...

近期美国科技板块出现波动，欧洲债券市场同步迎来调整。德国国债出现小幅上行，但整体表现仍落后 于美国国债。 随着美国货币与财政政策不确定性显现，越来越多欧洲金融机构调整资产配置策略，将投资重心转向欧 洲本土及新兴市场经济体，逐步降低对美元资产的依赖。英国巴克莱银行此前针对342名管理总规模达 7.8万亿美元资产的投资者开展调研，结果显示投资者对美国对冲基金的投资意愿显著下降，对欧洲及 亚洲区域对冲基金的配置兴趣大幅提升。 摩根大通2025年四季度持仓报告显示，其减持英伟达、微软、苹果等多家美国科技巨头的持仓，同步增 加对美国国债ETF的配置，反映出机构在科技板块波动下的避险配置倾向。 荷兰养老基金ABP披露数据显示，自2024年末至2025年9月，该基金所持美债市值从近290亿欧元降至近 190亿欧元，调整动作被认为是主动减持美债或停止新增配置的结果。瑞典、丹麦多家养老机构也相继 开展美债减持操作，欧洲资本正逐步与美元资产拉开距离，弱化与美元资产的长期绑定，但在此过程中 德债表现仍未能追平美债。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

JPMorgan is consolidating power to move faster on AI. The bank is reshuffling its commercial and investment bank to "maximize the impact of AI," according to an internal memo seen by Business Insider that was sent this week. The firm has named Guy Halamish as the chief operating officer of the CIB and tasked him with overseeing the ongoing effort to "harness the power of our data and fully leverage rapidly evolving AI capabilities," the memo, signed by the CIB's co-CEOs, Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh, said ...

摩根大通在2026年2月初发布开年市场展望，指出中国财政政策以温和托底为主，无大规模加税或地产 刺激计划；美联储缩表优先级提升，但降息路径不变；AI对就业的结构性冲击显现，但美国通过移民 调整缓解压力。同时，公司调查显示地缘政治以41%的占比成为市场波动首要诱因，AI以19%位居第 二。 股票近期走势 近7个交易日(2026年2月6日至12日)，摩根大通股价区间涨跌幅为0.22%，振幅达5.70%。截至2月12日最 新交易数据，股价报310.81美元，当日微跌0.01%，年初至今累计下跌3.11%。银行板块同期上涨 0.23%，表现略优于大盘。 经济观察网摩根大通于2026年2月12日发布2026年业绩指引，支出指引为1050亿美元，超出市场预期。 企业与投资银行业务预计成为主要增长动力，贷款和存款业务或保持稳健。根据机构预测，2026年第一 季度每股收益预计同比增长13.40%，净利润预计同比增长9.88%。 机构观点 机构对摩根大通的评级整体偏积极，2026年2月有29家机构发布观点，其中62%给予买入或增持评级， 无机构给出减持或卖出观点。目标均价为350.92美元，较当前股价有潜在上行空间。摩根大通在 ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase has appointed Guy Halamish as Chief Operating Officer to lead the AI strategy across its commercial and investment banking division, reflecting the bank's commitment to modernizing its technology and improving efficiency through AI [1] Group 1: Leadership and Structure - Guy Halamish, an insider, has been appointed as COO to oversee data and AI strategy [1] - The new structure will have chief data and analytics officers for various sectors reporting jointly to Halamish and their respective business heads [1] Group 2: Focus Areas - The revamped team will concentrate on enhancing data quality, strengthening governance, preparing infrastructure for AI agents, and driving end-to-end transformation in areas such as credit and client onboarding [1] Group 3: Industry Context - There is a significant rush among banks and companies on Wall Street to deploy AI technologies, with increased investment pushing firms to modernize quickly and achieve tangible results [1] - JPMorgan has been expanding its data organization since 2023 as part of a broader initiative to maintain a competitive edge over its rivals [1]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is transitioning from a growth driver for technology stocks to a disruptor in traditional financial services, impacting market expectations for wealth management firms globally [1] - Major wealth management and brokerage stocks have experienced significant declines as investors assess the implications of new AI tools that automate tasks previously performed by human advisors [1] Stock Performance - The Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) has decreased by 10.9%, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) by 13.8%, and Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) by 8.8% in recent trading days [2] - Other firms such as Lazard and Stifel Financial have also seen declines of nearly 4% and 4.9%, respectively, while banks with substantial wealth management exposure, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo, have dropped more than 4% [2] Trigger for Stock Selloff - The stock market reaction was initiated by the launch of an AI-powered tax planning tool by U.S. fintech startup Altruist, which is integrated into its Hazel platform [3] - This tool can process client data to generate personalized tax strategies and financial insights that previously required extensive manual work from advisors [3] Investor Concerns - Investors view the AI tool as a potential threat to traditional revenue streams in wealth advisory, particularly in fee-based services like tax planning and portfolio strategy [4] - The ability to commoditize and scale complex financial advice rapidly raises concerns about the erosion of fee margins and business models for existing firms [4] Shift in Market Focus - The market's focus has shifted from beneficiaries of the AI boom to those who might be displaced by it, affecting asset management and private capital firms [5][6] - Executives from firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management have attempted to reassure stakeholders that AI is unlikely to undermine their businesses, but skepticism remains prevalent [6] Reassessment of Risks - The initial optimism surrounding AI is evolving into a reassessment of risks, as investors consider the potential for AI to compress margins and alter business models [7] - The recent selloff in wealth management stocks signifies a turning point in how investors perceive AI risk within financial services [8] Implications for Wealth Management - The declines in shares of firms like Schwab, LPL Financial, and Raymond James reflect fears that AI could diminish advisory fees and disrupt established operating models [8][9] - While it is too early to label AI as an existential threat to human-led wealth advice, the rapid advancement of tools like Altruist's Hazel platform necessitates a reevaluation of defensible areas within the value chain [10] - Success for incumbents will likely hinge on the effective integration of AI into client service, compliance, and portfolio construction, where trust and judgment remain essential [10]