智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通近日发布关于本周美联储决议的前瞻研报。本周二召开的联邦公开市场委 员会(FOMC)会议料将是一场毫无悬念的轻松决策，这对委员会而言将是令人欣慰的变化。该行及几乎 所有市场参与者均预计，政策利率将维持不变。 市场预计联邦基金利率目标区间仍为3.5%-3.75%。美联储理事米兰可能会为了争取进一步宽松政策而再 次投反对票，美联储理事鲍曼和沃勒也存在投反对票的可能性。 小摩称，本次会议不会发布新的利率点阵图或经济预测，会后声明的修改也不太可能释放实质性的政策 信号。在新闻发布会上，该行预计鲍威尔将表示，当前政策已做好充分准备，能够应对美联储双重使命 面临的各类风险，且该行认为他将避免讨论与美联储相关的各类政治问题。 上周发表讲话时，鲍曼表示她大概率会支持本周降息，但同时也留出了回旋余地——若有充分证据表明 经济形势已发生变化，她也可能支持暂停降息。特朗普上周称下任美联储主席将是"一位男性"，这一言 论排除了鲍曼出任主席的可能性。 沃勒近期未发表公开言论，12月中旬时他曾表态支持进一步降息，但也强调"无需急于大幅降息"。尽管 自他上次公开讲话以来，失业率已回落至4.4%，沃勒仍持续对劳动力 ...

在1月23日发布的最新一期《Metals Weekly》中，摩根大通大宗商品研究团队——由Gregory Shearer牵头——给出的判断并不乐观：铜价仍然站在 高位，但支撑它的基本面正在明显走弱。 据追风交易台消息，研报开宗明义地指出，年初以来铜价之所以还能维持在约1.3万美元/吨附近，更多是靠宏观资金与情绪托举，而不是现货供 需的改善。随着中国和海外市场的库存同步回升，这种"价格跑在基本面前面"的状态正变得越来越难以维持。 中国精炼铜产量创新高，库存反季节激增 研报将最重的笔墨放在了中国。 从供给端看，情况并不紧张。2024年12月，中国精炼铜产量约118万吨，同比增7.5%，废铜进口的回升为冶炼厂提供了额外原料。但问题出在下 游。 下游订单偏弱 采购行为明显转向"按需为主" 阴极铜线杆开工率跌破50% 春节前后：数据会"失真"，只能盯库存 研报对接下来一个多月的判断相当克制。 春节在2月17日，意味着中国宏观与产业数据将进入"半失明"状态。摩根大通明确提示，春节前后很难得到一个"干净"的需求读数，市场只能通过 库存变化来间接判断。 研报描述的不是"断崖式下滑"，而是一种更微妙、也更麻烦的状态： 结果是一 ...

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has completed the acquisition of WealthOS, a technology platform specializing in pensions and wealth management solutions. This deal underscores the banking provider’s ongoing commitment to enhancing its digital offerings in an increasingly competitive financial landscape. WealthOS, known for its cloud-based tools that streamline middle- and back-office operations for wealth managers, represents a key addition to JPMorgan’s portfolio as it pushes deeper into pension-related service ...

正式告别"免费午餐"时代，OpenAI终于按下了广告变现的按钮。摩根大通认为，随着ChatGPT宣布将在未来几周内开始测试广告，这家AI 巨头正式迈出了从单纯依赖订阅模式向多元化商业变现转型的关键一步。 1月24日，摩根大通在最新研报中称，1月16日，OpenAI宣布将在未来几周内开始在ChatGPT的免费版和Go版本（轻量级订阅版）中测试 广告，这标志着其变现策略发生了实质性转变。 研报称，这一转向并非偶然——面对接近10亿的周活跃用户中95%为免费用户的现状，以及未来八年高达1.4万亿美元的基础设施投入承 诺，广告收入已从可选项变为商业必需。 摩根大通分析指出，ChatGPT的广告模式将有别于传统社交平台的"注意力经济"，转而通过捕捉用户的高商业意图来获取更高的千次展 示费用（eCPM）。目前ChatGPT约12%的查询具有搜索性质，且用户购买意向强烈。 该行认为，这一策略不仅旨在开辟新的收入流，更意在构建一个涵盖免费、Go（8美元/月）、Plus（20美元/月）及Pro（200美元/月）的 清晰价值阶梯，通过广告体验倒逼用户向付费层级转化。 同时，摩根大通认为，作为首个在消费级应用中测试广告的主流大语言 ...

Group 1 - China Aluminum International (02068) saw a mid-day increase of over 2.4% after announcing a joint venture to undertake a new electrolytic aluminum project with an annual capacity of 394,000 tons, with the first phase set at 294,000 tons [1] - CGN Mining (01164) rose over 8.3% following the submission of a preliminary prospectus for a trust that plans to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust shares over 25 months, with annual uranium procurement not exceeding 9 million pounds [1] - China Shengmu Organic Milk (01432) increased nearly 6% after a joint announcement regarding a potential conditional cash offer to acquire all issued shares of the company [1] Group 2 - Yijun Group Holdings (02442) surged over 18%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 500% since its resumption of trading in December, following the sale of shares by its controlling shareholder [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) rose over 10%, reaching a historical high of 5.49 HKD, after announcing the termination of its gold spin-off plan to focus on gold business [2] - Laopuqin Gold (06181) increased over 7.3% as consumer demand is expected to rise during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by higher gold prices and anticipated price increases [2] Group 3 - Oil stocks continued to rise, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.19%, Sinopec (00386) up 2.54%, and PetroChina (00857) up 3.68%, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba [3] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a rise of over 15.4% due to significant price increases and supply tightness in the G.652.D optical fiber market, with major manufacturers unable to meet their own orders [3] Group 4 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased over 2.6% after announcing plans to start construction on a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in 2026, with an investment of $437 million [4] - Xindong Company (02400) saw a slight increase of 0.43% as its mobile game "Xindong Town" surpassed 10 million downloads, indicating strong user growth [4] Group 5 - EquipmentShare.com (EQPT.US) debuted on the US stock market with an IPO price of $24.5, closing up 32.9% on its first day [5] - The solar energy sector saw initial gains, with JinkoSolar (JKS.US) up 9.03% and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) up 4.57%, following discussions at the Davos Forum [5] - Silver-related stocks experienced gains, with First Majestic Silver (AG.US) rising 5.04% as spot silver prices surpassed $100 [5] Group 6 - Lithium mining stocks mostly rose, with Sigma Lithium (SGML.US) up 17.54% after announcing additional sales of high-purity lithium powder [6] - Bank stocks declined, with Goldman Sachs (GS.US) down 3.75% amid legal issues involving President Trump and JPMorgan [6] - Redwire (RDW.US) increased by 4.51% following comments from Elon Musk about SpaceX's plans for reusable rocket technology [6] Group 7 - Semiconductor stocks showed strength, with AMD (AMD.US) up 2.35% and Nvidia (NVDA.US) up 1.53%, as Nvidia's CEO visited China to discuss future plans [7] - Ericsson (ERIC.US) rose 8.87% after reporting strong fourth-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITA reaching 12.7 billion SEK, a 24% increase year-over-year [8] - Intel (INTC.US) fell 17.03% due to disappointing performance outlooks and manufacturing issues [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Economic Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's economic outlook as it enters the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) in 2026, emphasizing growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Growth Targets - Policymakers are expected to target "around 5%" growth for 2026 and "at least 4.5%" for the remainder of the 15th FYP period, with an anticipated real growth of 4.7% in 2026 amid ongoing deflation [4][6][18]. 2. High-End Manufacturing - The 15th FYP emphasizes advanced manufacturing and AI development, with progress noted in green technology and heavy industry. However, technological gaps remain, particularly in high-tech sectors [4][29][30]. 3. Export Dynamics - Nominal export growth is projected to slow to approximately 3.4% in 2026, with net exports contributing about 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth. Rising trade barriers and stricter enforcement are significant challenges, although China's cost advantage supports exports [4][70][54]. 4. Fiscal Policy and Consumption Support - The central government's budget deficit is projected at around 4% of GDP, with total deficits (central plus local) at approximately 11%. Fiscal support for consumption is expected to increase modestly to about 0.5% of GDP, focusing on subsidies for various sectors [4][9][80]. 5. Deflation and Economic Adjustments - CPI is expected to average 0.7% in 2026, with persistent PPI deflation due to excess supply. A shift in policy support towards consumption and services is necessary for durable reflation [4][10][6]. 6. Housing Market Correction - The housing correction is likely to continue without decisive measures to stabilize prices or stimulate demand. A comprehensive approach is needed to address the ongoing downturn in housing activity [4][11][78]. 7. Currency Appreciation - Modest, managed appreciation of the CNY is expected, influenced by a high current account surplus and capital outflows. Claims of undervaluation are considered overstated, with competitiveness driven more by efficiency and deflation [4][12][69]. 8. AI Adoption and Technological Development - China's AI+ initiative aims for broad integration across industries, focusing on mature-node silicon and advanced packaging. However, productivity gains depend on effective workflow integration and governance to manage labor market disruptions [4][13][46]. 9. Geopolitical Landscape - Elevated geopolitical risks characterize the start of 2026, with potential shifts in regional relationships. The response from China has been muted, but changes in ties with neighboring economies are anticipated [4][14]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the challenges posed by Western tech export controls and the need for China to enhance its self-sufficiency in critical technologies. The ongoing geopolitical tensions may further complicate China's economic landscape [4][50][68]. - The report also notes the importance of balancing fiscal support between consumption and investment, as weak income gains and high savings rates hinder consumer spending [4][83][80]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding China's economic outlook for 2026, providing insights into growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations.

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 22 January 2026 Japan Equity Strategy To what extent can Japanese equities withstand rising rates and JPY depreciation? With a snap general election on Feb 8 approaching, pledges by the ruling and opposition parties to cut consumption taxes on food, among other measures, have heightened concerns about further fiscal expansion and the possibility that higher long-term rates could trigger selling in Japanese equities. Since Takaichi's victory in the LDP presidential ele ...

Core Viewpoint - The lawsuit filed by President Trump against JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon highlights the escalating and politically sensitive conflict between the government and Wall Street, indicating that large banks are facing both benefits and setbacks in a volatile policy environment [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - Trump has filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, accusing the bank and its CEO of closing his personal and business accounts for political reasons [1][2]. - This lawsuit represents Trump's most direct confrontation with Wall Street to date, as he claims that banks are attempting to marginalize him and other conservatives [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The lawsuit suggests that large financial institutions, previously seen as beneficiaries of Trump's deregulation agenda, are now operating in an unpredictable and sometimes hostile policy environment, which could damage their reputation and influence business operations [1][2]. - Todd Baker, a senior researcher at Columbia University, noted that the industry is experiencing mixed outcomes on major issues, with ongoing pressure and randomness causing harm [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Prior to the lawsuit, Trump threatened to set a cap on consumer credit card interest rates at 10%, a proposal that Dimon warned could lead to an "economic disaster" [3]. - The Trump administration's regulatory agencies are taking steps to make it easier for fintech companies, cryptocurrency firms, and certain businesses to compete directly with traditional banks [3]. Group 4: Responses from Banks - JPMorgan Chase has declined to comment on the lawsuit but stated that it believes the claims are baseless and that it does not close accounts for political or religious reasons [4]. - Other financial institutions are also being targeted, as Trump's organization is suing First Capital, alleging that the bank closed its accounts for political reasons [4]. - Analysts suggest that banks may act more cautiously in the future, recognizing the potential for regulatory retaliation and lawsuits [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in bond issuance by major Wall Street banks, driven by the demand for financing related to artificial intelligence (AI) investments, with projections indicating that the U.S. corporate bond market could see issuance reach approximately $2.5 trillion in 2026, raising concerns about debt sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Wall Street Bond Issuance - Major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, have recently launched extensive bond financing plans, with Goldman Sachs' issuance being the largest in history at $16 billion [3][4]. - In January alone, over $35 billion in new bonds are expected to enter the market from these banks, reflecting a broader trend of increased corporate bond issuance in the U.S. [3][4]. - Barclays predicts that the six major Wall Street banks will issue a total of $188 billion in high-rated bonds globally in 2026, marking a 7% increase year-over-year [3]. Group 2: Corporate Bond Market Trends - The overall issuance of U.S. corporate bonds is projected to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, an 11.8% increase from $2.2 trillion in 2025, with a net issuance of $945 billion expected this year, up 30.2% from last year [5]. - The demand for high-quality dollar bonds has led to a decrease in borrowing costs, with the credit spread for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds at its lowest level since June 1998 [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are increasingly concerned about the high levels of debt being taken on by tech giants for AI infrastructure, with some turning to credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against potential downturns related to AI investments [7]. - The bond issuance trend reflects not only domestic financial needs but also changes in global dollar liquidity, prompting calls for enhanced macroprudential management to mitigate financial volatility from cross-border capital flows [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in bond issuance by major Wall Street banks, driven by declining borrowing costs and increased demand for financing related to artificial intelligence (AI) investments, with projections indicating a total issuance of approximately $2.5 trillion in the U.S. corporate bond market by 2026 [1][4][5] - Major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, have recently launched substantial bond financing plans, with Goldman Sachs' issuance being the largest in history for investment-grade bonds at $16 billion [1][2][3] - The overall corporate bond issuance in the U.S. is expected to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, an 11.8% increase from $2.2 trillion in 2025, with a net issuance of $945 billion anticipated for this year, reflecting a 30.2% growth from last year [4][5] Group 2 - The surge in capital returns by the six major Wall Street banks, exceeding $140 billion in 2025 through dividends and stock buybacks, is attributed to soaring bank profits and relaxed regulatory policies, which enhance corporate financing confidence [2][3] - The demand for high-quality dollar-denominated bonds is driving down corporate financing costs, with the current credit spread for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds being the lowest since June 1998, at just 0.73 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields [4][5] - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the substantial debt incurred by tech giants for AI infrastructure, as there is skepticism about the profitability of such large-scale capital expenditures [6]