Group 1 - Global banks, including top U.S. banks, are expected to see a 10% growth in market revenue, driven by traders capitalizing on changes in U.S. tariff policies [1] - The forecast is based on a 15% increase in trading revenue for 12 global banks in Q1, which includes major players like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs [1][2] - Executives from Bank of America and Citigroup anticipate mid to high single-digit percentage growth in market revenue for Q2 following a strong Q1 performance [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that market revenue may exceed expectations when major U.S. banks report Q2 earnings next week, with significant trading activity noted after President Trump's tariff announcement in April [2] - Tradeweb Markets reported a 38.6% year-over-year increase in average daily trading volume in April, reaching $2.7 trillion, following the tariff policy announcement [2] - Mollie Devine from Crisil Coalition Greenwich noted that volatility is beneficial for market revenue, with tariff announcements acting as positive catalysts for trading departments [2] Group 3 - Stock trading revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-over-year in Q2, while bond trading revenue is expected to increase by 5% [3] - Analysts indicate that ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs, interest rates, and geopolitical factors are sustaining high levels of trading activity [3] - Predictions suggest that trading revenue for major U.S. banks will grow by 8% in the first half of the year, slowing to 5% in the second half, with low single-digit growth expected next year [3]

Group 1: Earnings Outlook for Banks - The earnings outlook for major banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup is improving, with these banks having passed the Fed's stress tests, allowing for increased capital returns through share buybacks and dividend hikes [2][3] - Q2 earnings growth for these banks is expected to be flat, with JPMorgan's earnings projected to decline by -5.4% and revenues by -13.3%, while Citigroup and Wells Fargo are expected to see declines of -3.8% and -7%, respectively [4] - Despite the subdued Q2 outlook, there is a trend of rising earnings estimates for the second half of the year, with 2026 EPS estimates for JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup increasing by +2%, +1.5%, and +1.1% over the past month [5] Group 2: Overall Finance Sector Performance - The Zacks Investment Brokers & Managers industry, which includes the aforementioned banks, is expected to see Q2 earnings down -2.8% year-over-year, with revenues down -0.5% [6] - The broader Zacks Finance sector is projected to have Q2 earnings up +8.2% on +3.9% higher revenues, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [6] - Total S&P 500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to increase by +4.7% year-over-year, with the Tech and Finance sectors being the largest contributors, accounting for 51% of all index earnings [7][17] Group 3: Market Performance and Future Expectations - Despite the weak earnings growth expectations for banks, these stocks have performed well in the market, reflecting improved expectations for capital returns and future earnings growth [8] - The banking industry and the broader Finance sector are anticipated to be significant contributors to aggregate earnings growth moving forward [10] - The market's recovery from the post-tariff lows suggests that participants may not view tariff uncertainty as a significant threat, although there is skepticism regarding the long-term impact on earnings [26]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 15, with expectations of modest performance compared to previous quarters, influenced by various market factors and economic conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - JPMorgan's Q1 performance was strong, driven by investment banking and trading, alongside growth in credit card and wholesale loans [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 revenues is $43.47 billion, indicating a 3.4% year-over-year decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has been revised slightly upward to $4.49, reflecting a 2.1% increase from the prior year [3]. Estimate Revision Trend - The earnings estimates for the current quarter and the next have seen minor upward revisions, with current estimates at $4.49 for Q2 2025 and $4.47 for Q3 2025 [5]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters has been 10.70%, with the company consistently outperforming estimates [5][7]. Factors Influencing Q2 Performance - Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to rise by 3% year-over-year, supported by stable funding costs [8]. - Investment Banking (IB) fees are projected to decline by 11.4% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate of $2.18 billion [12]. - Markets revenues are anticipated to grow in the mid-to-high single digits, with estimates for equity markets revenues at $3.15 billion and fixed-income markets revenues at $5.25 billion [14]. Asset Quality and Expenses - Non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to increase by 17.3% year-over-year, with estimates at $9.14 billion [18]. - Non-interest expenses are projected to remain stable at $23.7 billion, influenced by expansion efforts and technology investments [16][17]. Market Position and Valuation - JPMorgan shares have outperformed the S&P 500 but lagged behind peers like Citigroup and Bank of America [21]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 14.78X, which is below the industry average of 14.9X [22]. - The acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023 is expected to bolster financials and support long-term growth [26]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its footprint and capitalizing on cross-selling opportunities, despite facing challenges in fee income growth due to market volatility [28]. - Investors are advised to monitor management's comments on NII and IB business prospects during the upcoming earnings call [29].

Taking a look at Treasury yields. Uh the tenure at 4.4% uh 2% this morning, the 2-year at 3.9%. Joining us now, Pria Misra, the fixed income portfolio manager at JP Morgan Asset Management.Pria, great to have you with us. Thanks for having um what are we seeing priced into treasuries right now. Have we seen the effects of the tax bill. Have we seen the assumption that the Fed is going to cut rates.I mean, what are we looking at. I love that question because there's so many crossurrens with with interest rat ...

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：摩根大通计划在德国增加投资。 ...

金十数据7月9日讯，美国公司正准备公布第二季度业绩，投资者将从中寻找特朗普关税政策带来的影 响。尽管预计企业的盈利增长将较一季度放缓，但美元大幅贬值或能帮助抵消可能的关税效应。7月15 日，摩根大通和几家大型银行将率先拉开财报季序幕。Chase Investment Counsel总裁Peter Tuz表示，鉴 于贸易谈判仍在进行中，关税可能再次成为许多公司财报会议上的话题。DataTrek联合创始人Nicholas Colas表示，对于许多标普500指数成分股公司来说，预期门槛足够低，以至于它们的第二季度盈利增长 有望远好于预期。标普500指数最近创下历史新高"表明市场对此持有同样的看法"。 "解放日"后美股首个财报季下周开幕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 DEMO WORLD held in Shanghai highlighted the increasing globalization of Chinese enterprises, showcasing their strategies and experiences in expanding into international markets [2][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event gathered over 30 multinational companies, 50+ CVC institutions, and 112 technology enterprises, emphasizing the collaborative efforts in global market expansion [2]. - The "2025 China Enterprises Globalization New Forces 100" list was released, featuring companies that have rapidly initiated overseas operations [2][27]. Group 2: Trends in Globalization - Chinese enterprises are increasingly adopting regional layouts, localized operations, and digital empowerment as new trends in their globalization efforts [4][6]. - The importance of building local trust and outputting core capabilities is emphasized, moving beyond simple "going out" strategies [6][8]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies presents challenges, but China's economy shows resilience and adaptability, with a focus on technology-driven growth [8][9]. - The energy sector faces a significant transformation, with companies needing to adapt to local markets and policies to succeed in overseas ventures [12]. Group 4: Insights from Industry Leaders - Leaders from various sectors shared insights on the importance of innovation and user experience in maintaining brand vitality during international expansion [13][19]. - The automotive industry is undergoing a deep restructuring, with a focus on local ecological construction and moving from price competition to technology trust [17][19]. Group 5: Key Findings from the 100 Strong List - The list includes 40 leading enterprises and 60 growing enterprises, with a significant portion having established overseas branches [27][30]. - The majority of companies are focusing on smart manufacturing and artificial intelligence, with North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia being primary markets for expansion [30][31]. Group 6: Future Directions - The event emphasized the need for collaboration and resource sharing among industry players to navigate the complexities of global markets [33][35]. - The Banglink platform will continue to facilitate connections and innovation demands, enhancing the precision of industry partnerships [33].

Core View - The upcoming earnings season for major U.S. banks is expected to show strong performance, with Morgan Stanley raising price targets for several banks due to increased activity in capital markets and investment banking revenues exceeding management expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - Morgan Stanley raised the price target for Goldman Sachs from $592 to $680 [2] - The price target for JPMorgan Chase was increased from $240 to $296 [2] - Citigroup's price target was adjusted from $94 to $103 [2] - Regions Financial's price target was raised from $22 to $27 [2] - PNC Financial's price target was slightly increased from $178 to $179 [2] - U.S. Bancorp's price target was raised from $50 to $51 [2] - Truist Financial's price target was adjusted from $43 to $47 [2] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Goldman Sachs is expected to report Q2 earnings per share of $10, surpassing market expectations of $9.62, driven by increased revenues in investment banking, asset and wealth management, and stock market activities [3] - JPMorgan Chase is projected to have Q2 earnings per share of $4.85, exceeding market expectations of $4.46, due to increased fee income and reduced provisions [4] Group 3: Capital Market Activity - After a brief pause in early April, M&A and IPO activities accelerated significantly in May and June, with global announced M&A transaction volume increasing by 30% year-over-year in Q2 [5] - North American stock capital market trading volume grew by 49% year-over-year by the end of Q2 [5] - The trading volume in over-the-counter markets saw substantial increases, with April rising by 83%, May by 45%, and June by 80% [5] Group 4: Capital Optimization Plans - Morgan Stanley estimates that excess capital among large banks increased by 26% post-stress tests, rising from $156 billion to $197 billion [6] - The reduction in capital requirements is expected to lead banks to optimize their balance sheets and identify capital allocation opportunities [6] - Upcoming earnings calls are anticipated to discuss capital priorities and the pace of capital returns to shareholders [6]

摩根大通：美元兑主要货币仍被高估5至15% 金十数据7月9日讯，摩根大通认为，即使美元触及本轮低点，根据长期估值模型，美元兑主要货币仍被 高估5%至15%；随着周期性利差收窄及资产配置调整持续，美元料有下行空间。该行报告指出，支持 预期美元进一步走弱的原因包括美国与其他经济体的经济优势收窄、外资流入放慢及避险活动增多。该 行并继续建议美国投资者分散国际配置，非美投资者妥善管理美元曝险。 ...

All right, let's get more in the banks with Chris McGrady, head of US Bank research at KBW, a steel company. The firm announcing just in the last hour that he is taking over coverage of large cap banks, upgrading several names, including Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan. Chris, great to have you with us. Melissa, good to see you.Um, let's start off with with the uh the upgrades or the move highers in in the ratings with your your initiation of coverage. JP Morgan for instance we're talking about in terms of the ...