Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corporation is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenue for its fourth quarter, with analysts projecting earnings of 85 cents per share and quarterly revenue of $5.03 billion [1] Earnings Expectations - The anticipated earnings of 85 cents per share represent a decrease from 95 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $5.03 billion, down from $5.17 billion reported in the previous year [1] Analyst Ratings - Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez has maintained a Neutral rating on Kohl's and lowered the price target from $23 to $20 [2] Dividend Information - Kohl's currently has an annual dividend yield of 3.19%, translating to a quarterly dividend of 12.5 cents per share, or 50 cents annually [2] - To achieve a monthly dividend income of $500, an investor would need to own approximately 12,000 shares, equating to a total investment of about $181,440 [3] - For a more conservative monthly income goal of $100, an investor would need 2,400 shares, requiring an investment of approximately $36,288 [3] Dividend Yield Dynamics - The dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend payment by the current stock price, which can fluctuate based on changes in stock price [4] - An increase in stock price results in a lower dividend yield, while a decrease leads to a higher yield, assuming the dividend payment remains constant [4] - Changes in the dividend payment itself can also affect the dividend yield, with increases leading to a higher yield and decreases resulting in a lower yield [5] Stock Performance - Kohl's shares fell by 3.5% to close at $15.12 on the last trading day [5]

Group 1 - Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) is highlighted as a stock to watch due to its new management and positive performance in the retail sector during the earnings season [1] - The company is expected to perform well, following strong results from other discount retailers like Burlington, Ross Stores, and TJX [1] - Kohl's offers a variety of products including apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty, and home products, featuring brands such as Apt. 9, Jumping Beans, Tek Gear, and Simply Vera Vera Wang [3]

Core Insights - Kohl's Corporation (KSS) has faced significant economic uncertainty over the past year, leading to a reduction in its dividend [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company was compelled to cut its dividend due to the challenging economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS) has experienced significant stock volatility, reaching a 12-month high of $25.22 on December 1, but has since dropped 24% in 2026, with a recent 12 losses in 13 sessions, testing support at its 200-day moving average ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for March 10 [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - KSS has only finished higher after three of its last eight earnings reports, with a notable 42.5% bull gap in November [1]. - The stock has averaged a move of 17.3% during earnings reports, with investors anticipating a larger-than-usual 18.9% move for the upcoming report [1]. Group 2: Short Interest and Market Sentiment - There is significant contrarian potential for KSS, as short interest has decreased by 8% in the last two reporting periods, yet 26.77 million shares sold short represent 24.7% of the available float [3]. - A potential bounce back in KSS could lead to an unwinding of bearish bets, potentially fueling a rally [3]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Technical Indicators - All 12 brokerages covering KSS have a "hold" or worse rating, indicating a cautious outlook [4]. - The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for KSS is nearing "oversold" territory at 30, suggesting potential for a rebound [4]. Group 4: Options Activity - In the options market, KSS has a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 7.04, which is higher than 98% of all other annual readings, indicating strong interest in call options [5]. - Given the high short interest, some call options may be used by bearish bettors as a hedge [5].

Core Viewpoint - Kohl's (KSS) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.85 per share, a decline of 10.5% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $5.23 billion, reflecting a 3.1% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 1.1% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Revenue- Other revenue' at $192.54 million, down 13.3% from the prior-year quarter [5]. - The average estimate for 'Revenue- Net sales' is $5.04 billion, indicating a 2.7% decline year-over-year [5]. Sales by Line of Business - 'Net sales by line of business- Accessories (including Sephora)' is expected to reach $1.10 billion, down 1.9% from the previous year [5]. - 'Net sales by line of business- Children's' is projected at $596.13 million, reflecting a significant decline of 31.5% year-over-year [6]. - 'Net sales by line of business- Footwear' is expected to show a substantial increase of 180.8%, reaching $308.91 million [6]. - 'Net sales by line of business- Men's' is projected at $1.00 billion, down 3.2% year-over-year [7]. - 'Net sales by line of business- Women's' is expected to be $984.69 million, indicating a 3.6% decline [7]. - 'Net sales by line of business- Home' is projected at $979.02 million, reflecting a 3.1% decrease [7]. Store Metrics - Analysts estimate that the total number of stores will reach 1,152, down from 1,175 in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - Kohl's shares have decreased by 15.8% over the past month, contrasting with a minor decline of 0.2% in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8]. - With a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), Kohl's is expected to underperform the overall market in the near future [8].

Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue estimates at $5.23 billion, reflecting a 3.1% decrease from the previous year [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased to 85 cents per share, indicating a 10.5% drop from the same quarter last year [2] - KSS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise average of 73.8% [2] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - Kohl's is facing challenges due to a pressured consumer environment, particularly among middle- and lower-income shoppers, leading to tight discretionary spending and a focus on value [3] - The company projects a full-year fiscal 2025 decline in net sales of 3.5%-4% and a decrease in comparable sales of 2.5%-3% [3] Internal Segment Challenges - Performance is being impacted by internal challenges, especially in the footwear and kids' departments, with management expecting continued softness in the boots business [4] Profitability Pressures - Profitability may be affected by a highly promotional retail landscape and rising operational costs, with a projected 20-basis-point contraction in adjusted operating margin for the fourth quarter [5] Operational Resilience - Despite headwinds, Kohl's achieved 1% comparable sales growth in October, driven by improved traffic and a strategic shift back to proprietary brands [6] - Inventory levels have decreased by 5% year over year, contributing to a leaner stock position ahead of the peak shopping season [6] Earnings Whispers - Current indicators do not suggest a strong likelihood of an earnings beat for Kohl's, as it holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +19.44% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Kohl's, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Kohl's is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.85 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 10.5% [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $5.23 billion, down 3.1% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.08% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - A positive Earnings ESP of +19.44% suggests analysts have recently become more optimistic about Kohl's earnings prospects [12]. Historical Performance - Kohl's has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +152.63% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. Predictive Models - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - However, Kohl's currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [12]. Market Reactions - The upcoming earnings report on March 10 could lead to stock price movements depending on whether results exceed or fall short of expectations [2]. - Other factors beyond earnings results may also influence stock performance, making it essential to consider a broader context [15][17].

Core Thesis - Kohl's Corporation is viewed positively due to its potential turnaround and significant undervaluation, with a current share price of $18.50 and a market capitalization of $2.5 billion despite strong cash flow generation [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to generate $1.3 billion in operating cash flow and $900 million in free cash flow this year, indicating strong financial health [2]. - Kohl's is trading at a significant discount to its tangible book value, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 10.69 and 17.89 respectively [1][2]. Market Valuation - The market currently prices Kohl's as if bankruptcy risk is imminent, while a more reasonable valuation based on current and forward free cash flow suggests a fair value in the $40–$60 range [3]. - A potential re-rating towards peer price-to-book multiples could support a long-term bull case targeting $150 per share [5]. Operational Strategy - Kohl's benefits from a unique operational footprint as the only nationwide department store primarily located in strip malls, facing limited competition in many small and mid-sized markets [3]. - The Sephora shop-in-shop concept is driving traffic and supporting profit improvement, alongside a renewed focus on private-label brands and high-margin impulse checkout areas [4]. Growth Outlook - Revenue declines are moderating, with expectations for growth to return as soon as the next quarter, marking the first growth since the pandemic [2]. - As revenue stabilizes, margin leverage could lead to substantial earnings upside [5]. Historical Context - The stock price has appreciated by approximately 107% since a previous bullish thesis was published, highlighting the turnaround under CEO Ashley Buchanan and strong free cash flow generation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The American retail landscape is facing significant challenges, with three major retailers—Dollar Tree, Kohl's, and Macy's—showing signs that they could potentially go out of business by the end of the year due to weak financial fundamentals and consumer sentiment [1]. Group 1: Dollar Tree - Dollar Tree reported Q3 revenue of $4.75 billion, reflecting a 9.4% year-over-year growth, and beat EPS estimates with $1.21 [1]. - The company generated $958.5 million in operating cash flow but had capital expenditures of $870.3 million, resulting in a free cash flow of only $88.2 million [1]. - Dollar Tree's total liabilities stand at $10.19 billion against equity of $3.46 billion, raising concerns about its financial stability [1]. Group 2: Kohl's - Kohl's achieved Q3 revenue of $3.58 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.10, marking its third consecutive quarter of beating expectations [1]. - However, revenue declined by 2.8% year-over-year, and net income fell by 63.64% to just $8 million, with cash reserves dropping 17.24% to $144 million [1]. - The stock has increased by 65% over the past year, but shareholders have lost 63.5% over the last five years, indicating a lack of long-term confidence [1]. Group 3: Macy's - Macy's reported Q3 revenue of $4.713 billion, beating EPS estimates with $0.09, and comparable sales grew by 2.5% [1]. - Despite this, revenue declined by 3.88% year-over-year, and net income dropped by 60.71% to just $11 million [1]. - The company returned $99 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, which is unsustainable given its current financial performance [1]. Group 4: Common Challenges - All three retailers exhibit a lack of financial cushion, with Kohl's net income at $8 million, Dollar Tree's free cash flow at $88 million, and Macy's net income at $11 million [1]. - They face significant financial pressure if consumer spending remains weak, especially as they need to invest in digital transformation to compete effectively [1].

Over the past few years, Kohl’s has struggled to attract customers to its stores, despite recent turnaround efforts to boost low sales. In response to these ongoing challenges, the retailer is rolling out a bold new section in all locations to win back a key customer group. In the third quarter of 2025, Kohl’s saw net sales decline by almost 3% year over year, according to its most recent earnings report. It also generated operating income of $73 million during the quarter, about 25% lower than what it ea ...